List of election bellwether counties in the United States
Counties that usually vote for presidential election winners From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Bellwether counties in the United States are those whose votes back the winning candidate in United States presidential elections.
The strongest bellwether counties are those that do so most frequently. Of the 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States[1] only a small handful have voted in alignment with the winner in recent presidential elections.
Deviation in one election
The following 30 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980.[2][3]
Deviations in two elections
The following 96 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980:[2]
- Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020
- Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020
- Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016
- Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020
- Bexar County, Texas, in 2016 and 2024
- Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004
- Brewster County, Texas, in 2012 and 2020
- Buncombe County, North Carolina, in 2016 and 2024
- Bureau County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020
- Butte County, California, in 1996 and 2012
- Calhoun County, Michigan, in 2000 and 2020
- Calhoun County, South Carolina, in 1980 and 2020
- Cascade County, Montana, in 2012 and 2020
- Cass County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020
- Centre County, Pennsylvania, in 2016 and 2024
- Chickasaw County, Mississippi, in 1980 and 2020
- Clackamas County, Oregon in 2016 and 2024
- Clay County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2024
- Coles County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020
- Colleton County, South Carolina, in 1980 and 2020
- Columbia County, Wisconsin, in 2000 and 2020
- Coös County, New Hampshire, in 2004 and 2020[3]
- Cayuga County, New York, in 2000 and 2020
- Chautauqua County, New York, in 2012 and 2020
- DeKalb County, Illinois, in 2016 and 2024
- Delaware County, Indiana, in 1992 and 2020
- Door County, Wisconsin, in 1992 and 2024
- Elk County, Pennsylvania, in 2012 and 2020
- Essex County, New York, in 1992 and 2024
- Essex County, Virginia, in 1992 and 2020
- Fresno County, California, in 1996 and 2016
- Gladwin County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020
- Gloucester County, New Jersey, in 2000 and 2004
- Hill County, Montana, in 1988 and 2020
- Hillsborough County, Florida, in 1992 and 2016[3]
- Hillsborough County, New Hampshire in 1992 and 2024
- Houston County, Minnesota, in 1992 and 2020
- Jefferson County, Iowa, in 2004 and 2020
- Jo Daviess County, Illinois, in 1992 and 2020
- Kankakee County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020
- Kennebec County, Maine, in 2000 and 2004
- Kent County, Delaware, in 1992 and 2024
- Latah County, Idaho, in 1988 and 2016
- Lenawee County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020
- Lincoln County, Wisconsin, in 1988 and 2020
- Luna County, New Mexico, in 2012 and 2020
- Madison County, New York, 1992 and 2020
- Manistee County, Michigan, in 2000 and 2020
- Marion County, Oregon, in 1992 and 2012
- Marshall County, Iowa, in 1988 and 2020
- Marshall County, South Dakota, in 1988 and 2020
- Mason County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020
- McDonough County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020
- Menominee County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020
- Monroe County, Michigan, in 2000 and 2020
- Monroe County, Wisconsin, in 2012 and 2020
- Northampton County, Pennsylvania, in 2000 and 2004
- Oconto County, Wisconsin, in 2012 and 2020
- Oneida County, Wisconsin, in 2012 and 2020
- Orange County, New York, in 1992 and 2020
- Orleans County, Vermont, in 2004 and 2016
- Oswego County, New York, in 1992 and 2020
- Penobscot County, Maine, in 2004 and 2020
- Pike County, Mississippi, in 1980 and 2016
- Porter County, Indiana, in 1992 and 2020
- Presque Isle County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020
- Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area, Alaska, in 1996 and 2008
- Racine County, Wisconsin, in 1988 and 2020
- Ransom County, North Dakota, in 1988 and 2020
- Riverside County, California, in 1996 and 2016
- Rockingham County, New Hampshire, in 1992 and 2012
- Rockland County, New York, in 2000 and 2016[a]
- Sandoval County, New Mexico, in 2016 and 2024
- Sandusky County, Ohio, in 1992 and 2020
- Sargent County, North Dakota, in 1988 and 2020[3]
- Saratoga County, New York, in 1992 and 2024
- Sauk County, Wisconsin, in 2000 and 2004
- Schuyler County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020
- Seneca County, New York, in 2000 and 2020
- Skagit County, Washington, in 2016 and 2024
- Spencer County, Indiana, in 2012 and 2020
- Stark County, Ohio, in 2004 and 2020
- Starke County, Indiana, in 2012 and 2020
- Sullivan County, New York, in 2000 and 2020
- Traverse County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2020
- Tuscarawas County, Ohio, in 2012 and 2020
- Union County, Iowa, in 1988 and 2020
- Val Verde County, Texas, in 2016 and 2020[3]
- Vanderburgh County, Indiana, in 2012 and 2020
- Ventura County, California, in 2016 and 2024
- Warren County, New York, in 1992 and 2020
- Washington County, New York, in 1992 and 2020
- Watonwan County, Minnesota, in 2012 and 2020
- Will County, Illinois, in 2016 and 2024
- Winnebago County, Illinois in 2016 and 2024
- Winnebago County, Wisconsin, in 1992 and 2020
- Winona County, Minnesota, in 2000 and 2004
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The table above lists counties that have voted for the winning presidential candidate in at least 85% of elections from 1980 through 2020. This yields 125 counties with 11 or more wins during this period. The probability of this occurring by chance in a completely random distribution is quite low and is statistically significant.
However, the relevance of using a random prediction model to evaluate bellwether counties has been questioned by political analysts. Voting behavior in the United States is not random but is shaped by entrenched demographic, cultural, and political factors.[4][5] Most counties vote predictably along partisan lines, with many states and regions consistently favoring one party. This predictability undermines the argument that bellwether counties’ alignment with national outcomes is purely a matter of statistical chance.
Bellwether counties are notable because they deviate from this predictability, reflecting a mix of voter demographics and preferences that align with broader national trends. Studies have shown that bellwether counties often mirror key swing states or represent diverse, politically balanced communities.[6] This alignment suggests that their predictive accuracy arises from real-world dynamics rather than randomness.
Critics of the random model argue that it oversimplifies the complexities of electoral behavior and ignores the systemic factors that make bellwether counties significant. For example, they often serve as microcosms of the national electorate, capturing shifts in voting patterns driven by economic, social, and cultural changes.[7] Reducing their accuracy to mere statistical coincidence disregards these deeper insights.
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- This county voted with the popular vote each time. The last time it deviated from the popular vote was in 1976, giving it the longest current streak in the nation.[citation needed][as of?]
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