2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.

The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.^[1]

2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Projected electoral vote 19 0 Popular vote 3,542,505 3,421,088 Percentage 50.38% 48.65%

County results Congressional district results Municipality results

President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

A Northeastern swing state within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania was seen as a pure toss-up this cycle. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump narrowly carried the state by 0.7% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 1.2% as the latter defeated the former nationwide.

Pennsylvania was seen to hold the largest electoral prize of all the swing states in 2024. As such, it was generally believed that the winner of the state was highly likely to win the entire election. According to statistician Nate Silver, the state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency.^[2] Major news organizations marked it as a tossup in the lead-up to the election.^[3]

Trump won Pennsylvania with 50.4% of the vote to Kamala Harris's 48.7%, defeating her by a margin of roughly 1.7% and flipping the state. This was the largest margin of victory for a Republican candidate since 1988, as well as the first time since that election that a Republican won a majority in the state. Trump's victory is seen to have contributed to down-ballot victories for Republicans who won the races for the US Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor. Trump also received more than 3.5 million votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of the state.

Trump flipped Bucks and Monroe counties into the Republican column for the first time since 1988 and 2004, respectively. He also reclaimed Erie and Northampton counties which he lost in 2020, after having previously won them in 2016. Trump’s victory made him the first Republican candidate to carry Pennsylvania twice since Ronald Reagan did so in 1980 and 1984. As of 2024, Pennsylvania has together with Michigan and Wisconsin, the longest-running active streak among states of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the latest five presidential elections. The results also extended it to nine consecutive presidential elections where the winning party did not differ between those three states.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary

Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 23, 2024^[4]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	926,633	88.2%	159		159
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	68,310	6.5%
Write-in votes	55,611	5.3%
Total:	1,050,554	100.0%	159	27	186

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary

Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 23, 2024^[5]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	790,690	82.8%	16	46	62
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	157,228	16.5%
Write-in votes	10,387	1.2%
Unprojected delegates:				5	5
Total:	958,305	100.0%	16	51	67

General election

Voting law changes

In 2022, no-excuse mail-in voting was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.^[6] Automatic voter registration was enacted in 2023, helping to register citizens when getting a driver's license.^[7]

Trump assassination attempt

Main article: Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania

On July 13, 2024, Trump was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer, Corey D. Comperatore, aged 50, of Sarver, PA, died and two others were critically injured.^[8]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[9]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]	Lean D	November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
CNN[12]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
CNalysis[13]	Lean D	November 4, 2024
The Economist[14]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
538[15]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[16]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
NBC News[17]	Tossup	November 4, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided [a]	Margin
270ToWin	October 23 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.2%	48.2%	3.6%	Tie
538	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	47.9%	47.7%	4.4%	Harris +0.2%
Silver Bulletin	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.0%	48.1%	3.9%	Trump +0.1%
Real Clear Politics	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.5%	48.9%	2.6%	Trump +0.4%
The Hill/DDHQ	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.0%	48.8%	3.2%	Trump +0.8%
Average			48.12%	48.34%	3.8%	Trump +0.22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
HarrisX[18]	November 3–5, 2024	2,333 (RV)	± 2.3%	49%	45%	6%
				52%[c]	48%	–
		2,103 (LV)		51%	46%	3%
				52%[c]	48%	–
AtlasIntel[19]	November 3–4, 2024	1,840 (LV)	± 2.0%	49%	50%	1%
Research Co.[20]	November 2–3, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	48%	47%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[21]	November 1–3, 2024	1,089 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	48%	5%[d]
Patriot Polling[22]	November 1–3, 2024	903 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[23]	November 1–2, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	49%	3%[e]
AtlasIntel[24]	November 1–2, 2024	2,049 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	50%	2%
Emerson College[25]	October 30 – November 2, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%[f]
				49%[c]	50%	1%[f]
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[26]	October 29 – November 2, 2024	1,527 (RV)	± 3.5%	47%	47%	5%
		1,527 (LV)		48%	48%	4%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[27]	October 25 – November 2, 2024	798 (RV)	± 3.1%	48%	46%	6%[g]
		699 (LV)		49%	47%	4%[h]
ActiVote[28]	October 10 – November 2, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	50.5%	49.5%	–
SoCal Strategies (R)[29][A]	October 30–31, 2024	850 (LV)	± 3.6%	50%	48%	2%
AtlasIntel[30]	October 30–31, 2024	1,738 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	49%	3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[31]	October 29–31, 2024	800 (LV)	–	47%	49%	4%
YouGov[32][B]	October 25–31, 2024	982 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	48%	2%
		956 (LV)		51%	48%	1%
Morning Consult[33]	October 22−31, 2024	1,395 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[34]	October 27–30, 2024	460 (RV)	± 6.0%	49%	47%	4%[i]
Marist College[35]	October 27–30, 2024	1,558 (RV)	± 3.2%	51%	47%	2%[j]
		1,400 (LV)	± 3.4%	50%	48%	2%[j]
Echelon Insights[36]	October 27–30, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.5%	46%	52%	2%
AtlasIntel[37]	October 25–29, 2024	1,299 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	50%	3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[38][C]	October 25–28, 2024	849 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4%[e]
Fox News[39]	October 24–28, 2024	1,310 (RV)	± 2.5%	50%	48%	2%
		1,057 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	1%
Quinnipiac University[40]	October 24–28, 2024	2,186 (LV)	± 2.1%	47%	49%	4%
CBS News/YouGov[41]	October 22–28, 2024	1,273 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	49%	1%[k]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[42]	October 26–27, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	5%[d]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[43]	October 25–27, 2024	1,116 (LV)	± 2.8%	48%	48%	4%[e]
North Star Opinion Research (R)[44][D]	October 22–26, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	6%[e]
CES/YouGov[45]	October 1–25, 2024	3,708 (A)	–	50%	47%	3%
		3,685 (LV)		49%	48%	3%
Emerson College[46][E]	October 21–22, 2024	860 (LV)	± 3.4%	48%	49%	3%
				49%[c]	51%	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[47]	October 20–22, 2024	1,586 (LV)	± 2.3%	48%	47%	5%[e]
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[48][F]	October 18−22, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	46%	8%
Quantus Insights (R)[49][G]	October 17−20, 2024	840 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	50%	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[50]	October 16–20, 2024	866 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
		812 (LV)		50%	48%	2%
Franklin & Marshall College[51]	October 9−20, 2024	890 (RV)	± 4.3%	48%	44%	8%
		583 (LV)	± 5.0%	49%	50%	1%
Trafalgar Group (R)[52]	October 17−19, 2024	1,084 (LV)	± 2.9%	43%	46%	11%[l]
The Bullfinch Group[53]	October 11−18, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	49%	2%
				49%	48%	3%[m]
AtlasIntel[54]	October 12–17, 2024	2,048 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	50%	3%
Rose Institute/YouGov[55]	October 7–17, 2024	1,062 (RV)	± 3.4%	48%	46%	6%[n]
		1,043 (LV)		50%	48%	2%
Morning Consult[33]	October 6−15, 2024	1,395 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	48%	3%
Washington Post/Schar School[56]	September 30 – October 15, 2024	707 (RV)	± 4.6%	49%	46%	5%
		707 (LV)		49%	47%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[57][C]	October 9–13, 2024	1,072 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	50%	3%[o]
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[58]	October 7–10, 2024	857 (RV)	± 4.0%	50%	47%	4%
		857 (LV)		50%	47%	3%
American Pulse Research & Polling[59]	October 2–10, 2024	1,193 (LV)	± 2.8%	49.5%	50.5%	–
TIPP Insights[60][D]	October 7–9, 2024	1,079 (RV)	± 3.5%	49%	45%	6%
		803 (LV)		48%	49%	3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[61][H]	October 6–9, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	49%	3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[62]	October 7–8, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	49%	4%[e]
Emerson College[63]	October 5–8, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%[f]
				49%[c]	50%	1%[f]
Wall Street Journal[64]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	46%	47%	7%
Research Co.[65]	October 5–7, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	48%	47%	5%[p]
				50%[c]	49%	1%[p]
Quinnipiac University[66]	October 3–7, 2024	1,412 (LV)	± 2.6%	49%	47%	4%
Hunt Research[67][I]	October 2–7, 2024	1,037 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	48%	5%
Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov[68][J]	September 24 – October 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 4.2%	47%	45%	8%[q]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[69][K]	September 24 – October 2, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	46%	8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[70][L]	September 28–29, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	47%	6%[d]
Patriot Polling[71]	September 27–29, 2024	816 (RV)	–	49%	50%	1%
The Bullfinch Group[72][M]	September 26–29, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	46%	4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[73]	September 26–29, 2024	1,090 (LV)	± 2.9%	45%	48%	7%[d]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[74][N]	September 23–29, 2024	408 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	48%	4%
Emerson College[75][E]	September 27–28, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%[r]
				49%[c]	49%	2%[r]
AtlasIntel[76]	September 20–25, 2024	1,775 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	51%	1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[77]	September 19–25, 2024	474 (LV)	–	50%	49%	1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[78]	September 19–25, 2024	993 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	46%	5%
		924 (LV)		51%	46%	3%
ActiVote[79]	September 1–25, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	52%	48%	–
Fox News[80]	September 20−24, 2024	1,021 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	48%	2%
		775 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	49%	2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[81][O]	September 17–24, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	47%	3%
Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies[82][P]	September 19–23, 2024	400 (LV)	–	48%	48%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[83][C]	September 19–22, 2024	1,202 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%[o]
				50%[c]	49%	1%[o]
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[84][F]	September 16–22, 2024	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	46%	8%[o]
RMG Research[85][Q]	September 18–20, 2024	783 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	47%	5%[s]
				49%[c]	49%	3%[t]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[86]	September 16–19, 2024	450 (RV)	± 6.0%	48%	48%	4%[u]
Emerson College[87]	September 15–18, 2024	880 (LV)	± 3.2%	47%	48%	5%[f]
				50%[c]	49%	1%[f]
MassINC Polling Group[88][R]	September 12−18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	52%	47%	1%
Morning Consult[33]	September 9−18, 2024	1,756 (LV)	± 2.0%	49%	47%	4%
Marist College[89]	September 12−17, 2024	1,663 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	48%	3%[v]
		1,476 (LV)	± 3.2%	49%	49%	2%[j]
Washington Post[90]	September 12−16, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.6%	48%	47%	5%[t]
		1,003 (LV)		48%	48%	4%[t]
Quinnipiac University[91]	September 12−16, 2024	1,331 (LV)	± 2.7%	51%	46%	2%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[92]	September 11−16, 2024	1,082 (RV)	± 3.8%	50%	46%	4%
		1,082 (LV)		50%	46%	4%
Suffolk University/USA Today[93]	September 11−16, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	46%	5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[94]	September 14−15, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	50%	2%[o]
	September 10, 2024	The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC
Morning Consult[33]	August 30 – September 8, 2024	1,910 (LV)	± 2.0%	49%	46%	5%
co/efficient (R)[95]	September 4–6, 2024	889 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	48%	6%
CBS News/YouGov[96]	September 3–6, 2024	1,078 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	50%	–
Patriot Polling[97]	September 1–3, 2024	857 (RV)	–	48%	49%	3%
Trafalgar Group (R)[98]	August 28–30, 2024	1,082 (LV)	± 2.9%	45%	47%	8%[d]
Wick Insights[99][S]	August 27–29, 2024	1,607 (LV)	–	49%	49%	2%
Emerson College[100]	August 25–28, 2024	950 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	48%	4%[f]
				49%[c]	49%	1%[f]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[101]	August 23–26, 2024	803 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	47%	2%
		758 (RV)	± 3.0%	51%	48%	1%
SoCal Strategies (R)[102][A]	August 23, 2024	713 (LV)	–	47%	48%	5%
		800 (RV)		47%	47%	6%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
YouGov[103][T]	August 15–23, 2024	500 (A)	± 5.1%	43%	43%	14%[w]
		– (LV)	± 6.0%	47%	47%	6%[x]
	August 22, 2024	Democratic National Convention concludes
ActiVote[104]	August 5–22, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	51%	49%	–
Fabrizio Ward (R)[105][U]	August 19–21, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	46%	47%	7%
Spry Strategies (R)[106][V]	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	47%	5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[107]	August 18–19, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	47%	7%[d]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[108][W]	August 13–17, 2024	1,312 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	47%	7%
Focaldata[109]	August 6–16, 2024	719 (LV)	± 3.7%	50%	50%	–
Cygnal (R)[110]	August 14–15, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	48%	47%	5%
Emerson College[111][E]	August 13–14, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%
				49%[c]	51%	–
Quinnipiac University[112]	August 8–12, 2024	1,738 (LV)	± 2.4%	50%	47%	3%
The Bullfinch Group[113][X]	August 8–11, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	49%	45%	6%
New York Times/Siena College[114]	August 6–9, 2024	693 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	46%	5%
		693 (LV)		50%	46%	4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[115]	August 6–8, 2024	1,078 (LV)	± 2.9%	44%	46%	10%
Navigator Research (D)[116]	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	48%	6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[117]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	411 (LV)	–	49%	48%	3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[118][Y]	July 29 – August 1, 2024	600 (LV)	–	48%	48%	4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[119][Z]	July 29–30, 2024	627 (RV)	± 3.9%	47%	48%	5%
GQR Research (D)[120]	July 26–30, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	50%	46%	4%[y]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[121][AA]	July 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	45%	7%
Quantus Insights (R)[122]	July 27–28, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	48%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[123]	July 24–28, 2024	804 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	50%	4%
The Bullfinch Group[124][M]	July 23–25, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	48%	47%	5%
Fox News[125]	July 22–24, 2024	1,034 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	49%	2%
Emerson College[126]	July 22–23, 2024	850 (RV)	± 3.3%	46%	48%	6%
				49%[c]	51%	–
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
North Star Opinion Research (R)[127][D]	July 20–23, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	47%	9%
SoCal Strategies (R)[128][AB]	July 20–21, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	50%	4%
	July 19, 2024	Republican National Convention concludes
InsiderAdvantage (R)[129]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	40%	47%	13%
	July 15, 2024	Republican National Convention begins
	July 13, 2024	Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Public Policy Polling (D)[130][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	45%	51%	4%
New York Times/Siena College[131]	July 9–11, 2024	872 (RV)	± 3.7%	46%	48%	6%
		872 (LV)		47%	48%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132]	May 7–13, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	50%	7%
Emerson College[133]	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	49%	11%
New York Times/Siena College[134]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	44%	47%	9%
		600 (LV)		44%	48%	8%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Jill Stein Green	Cornel West Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Others/ Undecided [z]	Margin
Race to the WH	through October 28, 2024	November 2, 2024	48.0%	47.5%	1.0%	—	0.6%	2.9%	Harris +0.5%
270toWin	October 17 – 28, 2024	November 2, 2024	47.9%	47.9%	0.8%	—	0.7%	2.7%	Tie
Average			47.95%	47.7%	0.9%	—	0.65%	2.8%	Harris +0.25%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
HarrisX[18]	November 3–5, 2024	2,333 (RV)	± 2.3%	48%	45%	1%	1%	–	5%
				50%[c]	47%	2%	1%	–	–
		2,103 (LV)		50%	46%	1%	0%	–	3%
				51.0%[c]	47.5%	1.0%	0.5%	–	–
AtlasIntel[19]	November 3–4, 2024	1,840 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	49%	–	1%	0%	2%
Survation[135]	November 1–4, 2024	941 (LV)	± 3.9%	49%	47%	–	1%	1%	2%
		915 (LV)		50.6%	47.8%	–	0.9%	0.7%	–
AtlasIntel[24]	November 1–2, 2024	2,049 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	49%	–	1%	1%	2%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[26]	October 29 – November 2, 2024	1,527 (RV)	± 3.5%	46%	47%	–	1%	1%	5%
		1,527 (LV)		47%	47%	–	1%	0%	5%
Focaldata[136]	October 3 – November 1, 2024	2,373 (LV)	–	50%	48%	–	1%	1%	–
		2,119 (RV)	± 2.0%	51%	47%	–	1%	1%	–
		2,373 (A)	–	49%	47%	–	1%	2%	1%
AtlasIntel[30]	October 30–31, 2024	1,738 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	49%	–	1%	1%	2%
Data for Progress (D)[137]	October 25–31, 2024	908 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	48%	–	1%	0%	2%
YouGov[32][B]	October 25–31, 2024	982 (RV)	± 3.5%	48%	46%	0%	1%	–	5%
		956 (LV)		49%	46%	0%	0%	–	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[138]	October 28–31, 2024	1,596 (LV)	–	48%	48%	–	0%	1%	3%
Suffolk University/USA Today[139]	October 27–30, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	49%	–	0%	1%	1%
Echelon Insights[36]	October 27–30, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.5%	46%	51%	–	1%	0%	2%
Washington Post[140]	October 26–30, 2024	1,204 (RV)	± 3.1%	48%	47%	–	1%	1%	3%[t]
		1,204 (LV)		48%	47%	–	1%	1%	3%
AtlasIntel[37]	October 25–29, 2024	1,299 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	–	1%	1%	2%
Quinnipiac University[40]	October 24–28, 2024	2,186 (LV)	± 2.1%	46%	47%	–	2%	1%	4%
CNN/SSRS[141]	October 23–28, 2024	819 (LV)	± 4.7%	48%	48%	–	1%	1%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[142]	October 25–27, 2024	1,116 (LV)	–	48%	48%	–	0%	1%	3%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[44][D]	October 22–26, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[143]	October 16–23, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	47%	–	1%	1%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[144]	October 20–22, 2024	1,586 (LV)	–	48%	47%	–	0%	1%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[50]	October 16–20, 2024	866 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	–	0%	2%	2%
		812 (LV)		50%	48%	–	0%	1%	1%
Franklin & Marshall College[51]	October 9–20, 2024	890 (RV)	± 4.3%	49%	45%	–	2%	1%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145]	October 16–18, 2024	1,256 (LV)	–	48%	48%	–	0%	1%	3%
AtlasIntel[54]	October 12–17, 2024	2,048 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	50%	–	2%	0%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[146]	October 12–14, 2024	1,649 (LV)	–	48%	48%	–	0%	1%	3%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[58]	October 7–10, 2024	857 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	45%	–	2%	1%	3%
		857 (LV)		49%	45%	–	1%	0%	5%
American Pulse Research & Polling[59]	October 2–10, 2024	1,193 (LV)	–	48%	49%	–	2%	0%	1%[o]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[147]	October 8–9, 2024	707 (LV)	–	46%	48%	–	0%	1%	5%
TIPP Insights[60][D]	October 7–9, 2024	1,079 (RV)	± 3.5%	49%	45%	1%	1%	–	4%
		803 (LV)		48%	49%	1%	0%	–	2%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[148]	October 2–9, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	45%	–	1%	0%	8%
J.L. Partners[149][AC]	October 5–8, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
Quinnipiac University[66]	October 3–7, 2024	1,412 (LV)	± 2.6%	49%	46%	–	1%	1%	3%
Hunt Research[67][I]	October 2–7, 2024	1,037 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[150]	September 27 – October 2, 2024	5,686 (LV)	–	48%	47%	–	0%	1%	4%
The Bullfinch Group[72][M]	September 26–29, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	46%	–	1%	0%	3%
AtlasIntel[76]	September 20–25, 2024	1,775 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	51%	–	0%	0%	1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[78]	September 19–25, 2024	993 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	44%	–	0%	4%	2%
		924 (LV)		51%	45%	–	0%	3%	1%
Fox News[80]	September 20−24, 2024	1,021 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	46%	–	1%	2%	3%
		775 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	–	2%	2%	1%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[81][O]	September 17–24, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	47%	–	1%	0%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151]	September 16–19, 2024	1,086 (LV)	–	47%	47%	–	0%	1%	5%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[152]	September 11–19, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	46%	–	1%	1%	4%
MassINC Polling Group[88][R]	September 12−18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	46%	−	1%	0%	3%
Quinnipiac University[91]	September 12−16, 2024	1,331 (LV)	± 2.7%	51%	45%	−	1%	0%	3%
Franklin & Marshall College[153]	September 4–15, 2024	890 (RV)	± 4.1%	49%	46%	–	1%	1%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[154]	September 6–9, 2024	801 (LV)	–	45%	45%	–	0%	1%	9%
YouGov[155][B]	August 23 – September 3, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.6%	46%	45%	0%	1%	–	8%[o]
Wick Insights[99][S]	August 27–29, 2024	1,607 (LV)	–	47%	48%	–	1%	1%	3%
CNN/SSRS[156]	August 23–29, 2024	789 (LV)	± 4.7%	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[157]	August 25–28, 2024	1,071 (LV)	–	46%	45%	–	1%	0%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[101]	August 23–26, 2024	803 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	46%	–	1%	1%	1%
		758 (RV)	± 3.0%	51%	45%	–	2%	1%	1%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[77]	September 19–25, 2024	474 (LV)	–	49%	47%	1%	3%
Remington Research Group (R)[158][AD]	September 16–20, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	1%	4%
Washington Post[90]	September 12−16, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.6%	48%	47%	1%	4%[t]
		1,003 (LV)		48%	47%	1%	4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Fox News[39]	October 24–28, 2024	1,310 (RV)	± 2.5%	48%	46%	3%	0%	1%	1%	1%
		1,057 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	2%	0%	1%	0%	1%
Wall Street Journal[64]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	45%	46%	0%	0%	2%	1%	6%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[74][N]	September 23–29, 2024	408 (LV)	± 4.9%	47%	47%	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[92]	September 11−16, 2024	1,082 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	45%	0%	0%	1%	1%	5%
		1,082 (LV)		49%	45%	0%	0%	1%	1%	4%
YouGov[103][T]	August 15–23, 2024	500 (A)	± 5.1%	43%	41%	3%	0%	1%	1%	11%[aa]
		– (LV)	± 5.9%	48%	46%	2%	0%	1%	1%	2%
Spry Strategies (R)[106][V]	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	45%	4%	–	1%	–	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[108][W]	August 13–17, 2024	1,312 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	45%	5%	0%	1%	–	3%
Focaldata[109]	August 6–16, 2024	719 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	47%	4%	–	0%	0%	1%
		719 (RV)		49%	46%	4%	–	0%	0%	1%
		719 (A)		47%	47%	4%	–	0%	0%	2%
Cygnal (R)[110]	August 14–15, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	43%	44%	5%	2%	2%	0%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[159]	August 12–15, 2024	825 (LV)	–	46%	44%	4%	–	0%	0%	6%
Emerson College[111][E]	August 13–14, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	47%	3%	0%	0%	0%	3%
Quinnipiac University[112]	August 8–12, 2024	1,738 (LV)	± 2.4%	48%	45%	4%	–	0%	0%	3%
The Bullfinch Group[113][X]	August 8–11, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	41%	6%	2%	0%	–	6%
Franklin & Marshall College[160]	July 31 – August 11, 2024	920 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	43%	6%	–	1%	1%	3%
New York Times/Siena College[114]	August 6–9, 2024	693 (RV)	± 4.2%	45%	43%	5%	0%	2%	1%	5%
		693 (LV)		46%	44%	4%	0%	1%	1%	3%
Navigator Research (D)[116]	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	46%	5%	1%	1%	1%	2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[117]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	411 (LV)	–	48%	43%	5%	0%	0%	–	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[161]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	743 (LV)	–	44%	46%	3%	–	0%	0%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[123]	July 24–28, 2024	804 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	46%	3%	–	1%	4%	2%
The Bullfinch Group[124][M]	July 23–25, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	44%	44%	6%	–	1%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[162]	July 22–24, 2024	851 (LV)	–	42%	46%	5%	–	0%	0%	7%
Fox News[125]	July 22–24, 2024	1,034 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	43%	7%	1%	1%	–	3%
Emerson College[126]	July 22–23, 2024	850 (RV)	± 3.3%	44%	46%	3%	1%	1%	0%	5%
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Public Policy Polling (D)[163][AE]	July 17–18, 2024	624 (RV)	± 3.8%	43%	45%	4%	–	2%	–	6%
New York Times/Siena College[131]	July 9–11, 2024	872 (RV)	± 3.7%	40%	42%	7%	0%	3%	–	8%
		872 (LV)		42%	43%	6%	0%	2%	–	7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Z to A Research (D)[164][AF]	August 23–26, 2024	613 (LV)	–	46%	46%	5%	3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)[105][U]	August 19–21, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	43%	43%	3%	11%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[118][Y]	July 29 – August 1, 2024	600 (LV)	–	45%	45%	4%	6%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[165]	July 22–28, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	43%	3%	7%
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Civiqs[166][AF]	July 13–16, 2024	536 (RV)	± 4.7%	44%	46%	5%	5%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)[102][A]	August 23, 2024	713 (LV)	–	43%	47%	10%
		800 (RV)		41%	46%	13%
SoCal Strategies (R)[128][AB]	July 20–21, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	50%	4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[163][AE]	July 17–18, 2024	624 (RV)	± 3.8%	44%	49%	7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[129]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	45%	49%	6%
Emerson College[167][AG]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	48%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[130][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	44%	47%	9%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[168][AH]	July 5–12, 2024	1,041 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
New York Times/Siena College[131]	July 9–11, 2024	872 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	48%	8%
		872 (LV)		45%	48%	7%
Echelon Insights[169][AI]	July 1–8, 2024	612 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	47%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[170]	July 1–5, 2024	794 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	51%	5%
Emerson College[171][AG]	June 30 – July 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	48%	9%
Remington Research Group (R)[172]	June 29 – July 1, 2024	673 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	48%	9%
Cygnal (R)[173]	June 27–28, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%	48%	8%
The Bullfinch Group[174][M]	June 14–19, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.46%	45%	44%	12%
Emerson College[175]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	47%	8%
				49%[c]	51%	–
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[176]	May 30–31, 2024	1,012 (RV)	± 3.1%	43%	45%	12%
		923 (LV)		45%	47%	8%
KAConsulting (R)[177][AJ]	May 15–19, 2024	600 (RV)	–	44%	44%	12%
Prime Group[178][AK]	May 9–16, 2024	487 (RV)	–	51%	49%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132]	May 7–13, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[179]	May 6–13, 2024	730 (LV)	± 3.6%	45%	48%	7%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[180]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	1,023 (RV)	± 3.6%	44%	47%	9%
		1,023 (LV)		45%	48%	7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[181][O]	April 24–30, 2024	1,398 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	49%	6%
Emerson College[182]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	47%	8%
				49%[c]	51%	–
CBS News/YouGov[183]	April 19–25, 2024	1,288 (LV)	± 3.1%	49%	50%	1%
Muhlenberg College[184]	April 15–25, 2024	417 (RV)	± 6.0%	41%	44%	15%
John Zogby Strategies[185][AL]	April 13–21, 2024	628 (LV)	–	50%	45%	5%
Kaplan Strategies[186]	April 20–21, 2024	802 (RV)	± 3.5%	41%	46%	13%
Fox News[187]	April 11–16, 2024	1,141 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[188]	April 8–15, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	47%	7%
The Bullfinch Group[189][X]	March 29 – April 3, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	44%	18%[ab]
Franklin & Marshall College[190]	March 20–31, 2024	870 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	38%	14%
Big Data Poll (R)[191]	March 26–30, 2024	1,305 (RV)	± 2.6%	40%	46%	14%[ac]
				42%	44%	14%
				49%[c]	51%	−
Wall Street Journal[192]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	47%	9%
Echelon Insights[193][AM]	March 12–19, 2024	400 (LV)	± 5.5%	45%	49%	6%
CNN/SSRS[194]	March 13–18, 2024	1,132 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	46%	8%
Emerson College[195]	March 10–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	47%	10%
				48%[c]	52%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[196]	March 8–12, 2024	807 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	45%	10%
Fox News[197]	March 7–11, 2024	1,149 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[198]	February 27 – March 7, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	50%	45%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[199]	February 12–20, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	49%	8%
Emerson College[133]	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	45%	12%
Chism Strategies[200]	February 6–8, 2024	500 (RV)	± 5.0%	32%	40%	28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[201]	January 22–25, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	48%	10%
Franklin & Marshall College[202]	January 17–28, 2024	507 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	42%	15%
Focaldata[203]	January 17–23, 2024	834 (A)	–	38%	46%	16%[ad]
		– (LV)		42%	47%	11%[ae]
		– (LV)		49%[c]	51%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[204]	January 16–21, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	48%	7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[205]	January 15–21, 2024	745 (RV)	± 3.7%	47%	39%	14%
Quinnipiac University[206]	January 4–8, 2024	1,680 (RV)	± 2.4%	49%	46%	5%[af]
The Bullfinch Group[207]	December 14–18, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	45%	10%
Change Research/Future Majority (D)[208]	December 3–7, 2023	(RVs)	–	40%	46%	14%
Muhlenberg College[209]	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	42%	41%	17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[210]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	799 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	46%	10%
Big Data Poll (R)[211]	November 16–19, 2023	1,382 (RV)	± 2.6%	37%	41%	22%[ag]
		1,284 (LV)		39%	41%	20%[ah]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[212]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	805 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
Emerson College[213]	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	11%
		816 (LV)	–	45%	49%	6%
New York Times/Siena College[134]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	44%	48%	8%
		(600 LV)		44%	49%	7%
Franklin & Marshall College[214]	October 11–22, 2023	873 (RV)	± 4.1%	44%	42%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[215]	October 5–10, 2023	807 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	46%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[216]	October 7–9, 2023	900 (LV)	–	43%	42%	15%
Emerson College[217]	October 1–4, 2023	430 (RV)	± 4.7%	36%	45%	19%
Quinnipiac University[218]	September 28 – October 2, 2023	1,725 (RV)	± 2.4%	45%	47%	8%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[219]	September 19–28, 2023	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	47%	45%	8%[ai]
Public Policy Polling (D)[220][AN]	September 25–26, 2023	673 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	45%	7%
National Public Affairs[221]	September 14–17, 2023	622 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	45%	8%
Franklin & Marshall College[222]	August 9–20, 2023	723 (RV)	± 4.5%	42%	40%	18%
Prime Group[223][AK]	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	50%	50%	–
				38%	43%	19%[aj]
Quinnipiac University[224]	June 22–26, 2023	1,584 (RV)	± 2.5%	46%	47%	7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[225][AO]	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	48%	45%	7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[226][AO]	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	42%	12%
Franklin & Marshall College[227]	March 27 – April 7, 2023	643 (RV)	± 4.9%	36%	35%	29%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[228]	February 19–26, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.2%	48%	41%	11%
Targoz Market Research[229]	November 2–6, 2022	904 (RV)	–	48%	48%	4%
		631 (LV)	± 3.8%	46%	52%	2%
Emerson College[230]	October 28–31, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	44%	12%
Emerson College[231]	September 23–26, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	46%	9%
Echelon Insights[232][AI]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	828 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	43%	9%
Emerson College[233]	August 22–23, 2022	1,034 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	47%	11%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[234][AP]	July 22–24, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	42%	44%	14%
Blueprint Polling (D)[235]	July 19–21, 2022	712 (LV)	± 3.7%	42%	41%	17%
Blueprint Polling (D)[236]	February 15–16, 2022	635 (LV)	± 3.9%	45%	40%	15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[237][H]	November 11–16, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	51%	4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College[167][AG]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	4%	1%	1%	8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[168][AH]	July 5–12, 2024	1,041 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	6%	1%	2%	3%
YouGov[238][B]	July 4–12, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.4%	40%	43%	3%	1%	1%	12%
New York Times/Siena College[131]	July 9–11, 2024	872 (RV)	± 3.7%	38%	41%	8%	0%	2%	11%
		872 (LV)		40%	42%	7%	0%	2%	9%
Echelon Insights[169][AI]	July 1–8, 2024	612 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	42%	6%	1%	2%	5%[ak]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[170]	July 1–5, 2024	794 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	44%	7%	1%	1%	6%
Cygnal (R)[173]	June 27–28, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	38%	42%	9%	2%	2%	7%
Emerson College[175]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	45%	5%	0%	1%	12%
Marist College[239]	June 3–6, 2024	1,181 (RV)	± 3.6%	45%	47%	3%	1%	1%	3%[al]
KAConsulting (R)[177][AJ]	May 15–19, 2024	600 (RV)	–	39%	41%	9%	1%	3%	7%[am]
Prime Group[178][AK]	May 9–16, 2024	487 (RV)	–	45%	42%	9%	2%	2%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132]	May 7–13, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	45%	7%	2%	1%	3%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[179]	May 6–13, 2024	730 (LV)	± 3.6%	40%	43%	7%	2%	2%	6%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[180]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	1,023 (RV)	± 3.6%	36%	40%	10%	0%	1%	13%[an]
		1,023 (LV)		37%	41%	9%	0%	1%	12%[an]
Emerson College[182]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	45%	6%	1%	1%	7%
Fox News[187]	April 11–16, 2024	1,141 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	44%	8%	1%	2%	3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[188]	April 8–15, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	43%	8%	0%	1%	6%
Wall Street Journal[192]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	41%	7%	3%	1%	10%
Emerson College[195]	March 10–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	44%	5%	1%	1%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[196]	March 8–12, 2024	807 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	44%	7%	0%	1%	10%
Fox News[197]	March 7–11, 2024	1,149 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	42%	9%	2%	2%	3%
Axis Research[240][AQ]	February 25–27, 2024	601 (RV)	± 4.1%	40%	39%	8%	1%	2%	20%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[199]	February 12–20, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	45%	8%	1%	1%	9%
Emerson College[133]	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	42%	8%	2%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[241]	January 16–21, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	43%	7%	1%	1%	8%
Quinnipiac University[206]	January 4–8, 2023	1,680 (RV)	± 2.4%	41%	39%	11%	2%	4%	3%[ao]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[242]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	799 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	39%	9%	1%	1%	12%
Big Data Poll (R)[211]	November 16–19, 2023	1,382 (RV)	± 2.6%	35%	40%	9%	1%	1%	14%[ap]
		1,284 (LV)		37%	41%	9%	1%	1%	11%[t]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[163][AE]	July 17–18, 2024	624 (RV)	± 3.8%	42%	46%	4%	2%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[243]	July 16–18, 2024	688 (LV)	–	41%	45%	4%	1%	9%[aq]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[244]	July 8–10, 2024	719 (LV)	–	40%	45%	6%	1%	8%[aq]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[245]	June 8–11, 2024	456 (LV)	–	42%	44%	5%	1%	8%[aq]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[246]	May 2–4, 2024	635 (LV)	–	41%	43%	7%	0%	9%
Franklin & Marshall College[190]	March 20–31, 2024	870 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	40%	9%	3%	8%
Big Data Poll (R)[191]	March 26–30, 2024	1,305 (RV)	± 2.6%	40%	44%	8%	2%	6%
				42%[c]	46%	9%	3%	−
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[247]	March 14–17, 2024	775 (LV)	–	41%	44%	7%	1%	7%
Franklin & Marshall College[202]	January 17–28, 2024	494 (RV)	± 5.0%	42%	37%	8%	2%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Civiqs[166][AF]	July 13–16, 2024	536 (RV)	± 4.7%	42%	46%	6%	6%
1983 Labs[248]	June 28–30, 2024	741 (LV)	± 3.6%	41%	46%	3%	10%[ak]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[176]	May 30–31, 2024	1,012 (RV)	± 3.1%	41%	39%	8%	12%
		923 (LV)		43%	42%	7%	8%
Muhlenberg College[184]	April 15–25, 2024	417 (RV)	± 6.0%	35%	35%	18%	12%
Big Data Poll (R)[191]	March 26–30, 2024	1,305 (RV)	± 2.6%	39%	45%	7%	6%[ar]
				40%[c]	45%	8%	7%[as]
The Bullfinch Group[249][M]	March 22–26, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	44%	41%	7%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[250]	December 28–30, 2023	1,069 (LV)	–	39%	40%	9%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[251]	November 27–29, 2023	887 (LV)	–	37%	44%	7%	10%
Big Data Poll (R)[211]	November 16–19, 2023	1,382 (RV)	± 2.6%	36%	40%	8%	16%[at]
		1,284 (LV)		38%	41%	8%	13%[au]
New York Times/Siena College[252]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6	35%	35%	23%	7%
		600 (LV)		36%	36%	21%	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[216]	October 7–9, 2023	900 (LV)	–	39%	39%	9%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
CNN/SSRS[194]	March 13–18, 2024	1,132 (RV)	± 3.8%	38%	40%	16%	4%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[253]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	805 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	41%	8%	1%	12%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[185][AL]	April 13–21, 2024	628 (LV)	–	47%	42%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[185][AL]	April 13–21, 2024	628 (LV)	–	40%	41%	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[130][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	42%	51%	7%
Emerson College[133]	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	33%	48%	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Gretchen Whitmer Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Fox News[125]	July 22–24, 2024	1,034 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[130][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	42%	50%	8%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	JB Pritzker Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[130][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	37%	50%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Josh Shapiro Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Fox News[125]	July 22–24, 2024	1,034 (RV)	± 3.0%	54%	44%	2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[130][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	47%	46%	7%
Muhlenberg College[209]	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	48%	37%	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Josh Shapiro Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[163][AE]	July 17–18, 2024	624 (RV)	± 3.8%	47%	43%	3%	1%	6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Pete Buttigieg Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[130][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	41%	50%	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Muhlenberg College[209]	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	33%	38%	29%
New York Times/Siena College[254]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	38%	48%	14%
		600 (LV)		39%	49%	12%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[219]	September 19–28, 2023	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	45%	11%[ai]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[251]	November 27–29, 2023	887 (LV)	–	36%	26%	18%	20%[av]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Axis Research[240][AQ]	February 25–27, 2024	601 (RV)	± 4.1%	39%	19%	13%	1%	1%	27%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Muhlenberg College[209]	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	41%	39%	20%
New York Times/Siena College[254]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	43%	45%	12%
		600 (LV)		43%	47%	10%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[255]	May 2–8, 2023	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	39%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[225][AO]	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	48%	7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[226][AO]	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	45%	13%
Echelon Insights[232][AI]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	828 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	42%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[251]	November 27–29, 2023	887 (LV)	–	37%	34%	13%	12%[aw]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[255]	May 2–8, 2023	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	42%	38%	20%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania^[256]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	3,542,022	50.4	+1.5
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	3,420,423	48.6	−1.4
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	34,508	0.5
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	33,299	0.5	−0.7
	Write-in
Total votes

Analysis

Compared to 2020, Trump gained in nearly every county except for a few scattered around the interior of the state. His strongest gains were concentrated in Northeastern Pennsylvania, which, prior to his first run in 2016, was Democratic and historically had an economy focused around coal mining. He also made notable gains in the Philadelphia area, even the suburban counties that had shifted against him in both of his past runs.

Trump flipped Erie and Northampton Counties, which had both supported him in 2016, but not 2020. He also flipped Bucks and Monroe, neither of which had gone Republican in decades prior.

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Flip

See also

• United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
4. "Other" with 3%
5. "Other" with 2%
6. "Someone else" with 1%
7. "Another Candidate" with 2%
8. "Another Candidate" with 1%
9. "Neither/Other" with 2%
10. "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
11. "Someone else/third party" with 1%
12. "Other" with 5%
13. "A third party / Independent candidate" with 2%
14. "Other" with 6%
15. "Other" with 1%
16. "Some other candidate" with 1%
17. "Another Candidate" with 3%
18. "Someone else" with 2%
19. "Some other candidate" with 3%
20. "Would not vote" with 1%
21. "Neither/Other" with 4%
22. "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
23. "Will not vote" with 6%
24. "Will not vote" with 1%
25. Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
26. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
27. "Will not vote" with 6%
28. Independent/Third party candidate with 12%
29. "Someone else / third party" with 8%
30. "Another candidate" with 10%
31. "Another candidate" with 7%
32. "Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
33. "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 3%
34. "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 1%
35. "Other" with 4%
36. No Labels candidate
37. Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
38. Chase Oliver (L) with >1%
39. Lars Mapstead with 1%
40. Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
41. "Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
42. "Would not vote" with 3%
43. Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
44. "Someone else / third party" with 4%
45. "Someone else / third party" with 7%
46. "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 2%
47. "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 1%
48. "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote" with 2%; "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1% each
49. "Other (Third Party/Write-In)", "Won't vote", & "Other (L)" with 1% each; "Other (G)" with 0%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
2. Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
3. Poll sponsored by American Thinker
4. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
5. Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
6. Poll sponsored by La Torre Live
7. Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
8. Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
9. Poll conducted for the University of Austin
10. Poll sponsored by Jacobin
11. Poll conducted for the Article III Project
12. Poll conducted for the Sentinel Action Fund PAC
13. Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
14. Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
15. Poll commissioned by AARP
16. Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America
17. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
18. Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
19. Poll sponsored by 2WAY
20. Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
21. Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
22. Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
23. Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
24. Poll conducted for The Independent Center
25. Poll commissioned by Early Vote Action PAC
26. Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
27. Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
28. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
29. Poll sponsored by The Daily Mail
30. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
31. Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
32. Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
33. Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
34. Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
35. Poll sponsored by NetChoice
36. Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
37. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
38. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
39. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
40. Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
41. Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
42. Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
43. Poll sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance

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