2025 Canadian federal election
Next general election in Canada From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2025 Canadian federal election will elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. Under the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, the election would be held on October 20, 2025, but it may be called earlier if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister, either for a snap election or after the government loses a vote on a supply bill or a specific motion of no confidence.
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
343 seats in the House of Commons 172 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 New electoral districts to be used for this election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.png)
.jpg)
_(cropped).jpg)
This will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census.
Background
Summarize
Perspective
The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20, 2021, saw only minor changes from the preceding 2019 election.[1] The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, did not win the popular vote and failed to win enough seats to gain a parliamentary majority, winning only a plurality of seats and retaining its status as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition.[2][b] That September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader, citing lack of party support.[3] Her resignation came into effect that November 10.[4]
Date of the election
The election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025, under the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[5] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be called no more than five years after the writs for the preceding election are returned.
The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister, either for a snap election or after the government loses a vote on a supply bill or a specific motion of no confidence. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons and thus is more likely to lose votes in the House.[6][7][8]
Proposed change of fixed election date
On March 20, 2024, the government introduced the Electoral Participation Act, which included an amendment to the Canada Elections Act that would have changed the fixed election date to October 27, 2025, to avoid conflicting with the Hindu festival of Diwali, as well as municipal elections in Alberta.[9][10] Moving the election date would also have resulted in 80 members of Parliament first elected on October 21, 2019, meeting the requirement of 6 years of service to receive a parliamentary retirement pension.[11] The Official Opposition Conservative Party argued that the pension eligibility was the real motivation for the change, an accusation which the government denied.[12] Of the 80 MPs who would have become eligible for a pension if the election date was moved later, 32 were Conservatives, 22 were Liberals, 19 were Bloc Québécois, 6 were New Democrats, and 1 was an independent.[13] The date change was unlikely to proceed with all opposition parties against the change; NDP MP Lisa Barron confirmed she would propose a committee amendment to leave the fixed election date as October 20, 2025, and minister of democratic institutions Dominic LeBlanc stated he would "happily respect the will of this committee" if it had amended the bill.[12]
On January 6, 2025, the Parliament of Canada was prorogued by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after he announced his resignation as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party,[14] which resulted in the bill dying on the order paper.[15]
Political parties and standings
The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong, despite being elected as a Liberal, was disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot and has since sat as an independent.[16]
| Name | Ideology | Position | Leader(s) | 2021 result | Current standing | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||
| Liberal | Liberalism Social liberalism |
Centre to centre-left | Justin Trudeau (outgoing) |
160 / 338 |
153 / 338 | ||
| Conservative | Conservatism Social conservatism Economic liberalism |
Centre-right to right-wing | Pierre Poilievre | 119 / 338 |
120 / 338 | ||
| Bloc Québécois | Quebec nationalism Quebec sovereigntism Social democracy |
Centre-left | Yves-François Blanchet | 32 / 338 |
33 / 338 | ||
| New Democratic | Social democracy Democratic socialism |
Centre-left to left-wing | Jagmeet Singh | 25 / 338 |
24 / 338 | ||
| Green | Green politics | Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault | 2 / 338 |
2 / 338 | |||
| People's | Right-wing populism Canadian nationalism Conservatism |
Right-wing to far-right | Maxime Bernier | 0 / 338 |
0 / 338 | ||
| Independents | N/A | 0 / 338 |
3 / 338 | ||||
| Vacant | N/A | 3 / 338 | |||||
Electoral system
Canada's electoral system, a "first-past-the-post" system, is formally referred to as a single-member plurality system. The candidate with more votes than any other candidate in an electoral district (referred to in Canada as a riding) wins a seat in the House of Commons and represents that riding as its member of Parliament (MP). The party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons usually forms government, with that party's leader becoming prime minister. The largest party by seat count that is not the government or part of a governing coalition becomes the Official Opposition. That party receives more finances and prestige than the other opposition parties.[citation needed]
An absolute majority of the votes cast in the last election is not needed to have power and is rarely achieved. As well, the party in power does not need to obtain a majority of the seats in the House of Commons – and under the current multi-party system, quite often does not achieve that. However, to pass bills, the governing party must have support of a majority of MPs. Without majority support, the government falls and a new party is named government or an election has to be held. Three parties have achieved power at the federal level in Canada's history: the Liberals (active since 1867); the original Conservatives / Progressive Conservatives (1867–2003); and the modern Conservatives (since 2003).[citation needed]
Redistribution
The Constitution Act of 1867 requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution following each decennial Canadian census.[17] Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution process began in October 2021 and was completed in September 2023.[18]
On October 15, 2021, the chief electoral officer announced that, based on the formula in the Constitution Act, 1867, then in force, the allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats.[19] This included a reduction of Quebec's allocation from 78 to 77 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution.[20][21] The Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause".[22][23] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15, 2022,[24] the Senate on June 21,[25] and received royal assent on June 23, 2022.[26] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats.[27]
Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021.[28] The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. Quebec's commission adjusted its work to be based on a 78-seat allocation in July 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023,[29][30] and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023.[31] The chief electoral officer then used the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a representation order, which was proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[32]
The changes to federal electoral district boundaries took effect on April 23, 2024.[33][19][32] If the election had been called before then, it would have occurred under the previous electoral district boundaries, which had been in effect since the 2015 federal election.[34][35]
| Province or territory | Representation orders | Average population per electoral district |
Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2023 | |||
| Ontario | 121 | 122 | 116,590 | 1  |
| Quebec | 78 | 78 | 108,998 |  |
| British Columbia | 42 | 43 | 116,300 | 1 |
| Alberta | 34 | 37 | 115,206 | 3 |
| Manitoba | 14 | 14 | 95,868 | |
| Saskatchewan | 14 | 14 | 80,893 | |
| Nova Scotia | 11 | 11 | 88,126 | |
| New Brunswick | 10 | 10 | 77,561 | |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 7 | 7 | 72,935 | |
| Prince Edward Island | 4 | 4 | 38,583 | |
| Northwest Territories | 1 | 1 | 41,070 | |
| Nunavut | 1 | 1 | 36,858 | |
| Yukon | 1 | 1 | 40,232 | |
| Canada | 338 | 343 | 107,848 | 5 |
Transposed 2021 results
.svg)
This will be the first election contested under the new electoral districts established in the 2022 redistribution. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2021 were unchanged but regrouped by new electoral district boundaries, as published by Elections Canada.[36]
| Party | MPs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 actual result | 2021 notional result | Change | ||
| Liberal | 160 | 157 |  3 | |
| Conservative | 119 | 126 | 7 | |
| Bloc Québécois | 32 | 34 | 2 | |
| New Democratic | 25 | 24 | 1 | |
| Green | 2 | 2 | | |
| Total seats | 338 | 343 | 5 | |
Incumbents not running for re-election
As of February 2025[update], 52 MPs have announced they will not run in the 2025 federal election. One MP lost their party nomination race to run again.
| Party | MPs retiring | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 election[e] | Current | ||
| Liberal | 35 | 35 | |
| Conservative | 10 | 9 | |
| New Democratic | 4 | 4 | |
| Bloc Québécois | 4 | 4 | |
| Independent | 0 | 1 | |
| Total | 52 | 52 | |
Incumbents who lost nomination races
| Member of Parliament | Electoral district | Province or territory | Date nomination held | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Soroka[85] | Yellowhead | Alberta | June 22, 2024 | |
Timeline
2021
- September 27 – Annamie Paul announced her intent to resign as leader of the Green Party.[86]
- November 10 – Paul formally submitted her resignation and ended her membership in the party.[4] The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.[87][88]
- November 15 – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole.[89] Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order.[89] The following day, Batters was removed from the Conservative caucus.[90]
- November 24 – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.[91][92]
- December 5 – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.[93][94]
2022
- February 2 – Erin O'Toole was removed as the leader of the Conservative Party by a caucus vote.[95] Candice Bergen was selected by the party caucus to serve as interim leader.[96][97]
- March 22 – The Liberal and New Democratic parties reached a confidence and supply agreement, with the NDP agreeing to support the Liberal government until June 2025 in exchange for specific policy commitments.[98]
- May 24 – The 2022 Green Party of Canada leadership election officially began, pursuant to the party's constitution.[99]
- September 10 – The 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election concluded with Pierre Poilievre being announced as the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.[100]
- November 19 – The 2022 Green Party of Canada leadership election concluded with Elizabeth May being announced as the new leader of the Green Party of Canada.[101]
2023
- July 26 – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau conducted a major cabinet reshuffle.[102]
- September 26 – Anthony Rota announced his intention to resign as Speaker of the House of Commons. Louis Plamondon was nominated to replace Rota on an interim basis.[103]
- October 3 – Liberal MP Greg Fergus was elected speaker of the House of Commons. He was the first person of colour to be elected speaker.[104]
2024
- September 4 – The NDP officially ended their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals.[105]
- November 20 – Alberta Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault resigned from Cabinet following allegations that he ran a business seeking federal contracts and falsely claimed to be Indigenous.[106]
- December 9 – Trudeau's Liberal government survived a third motion of no confidence, with the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois voting for the motion, and the Liberals, NDP, and Greens opposed.[107]
- December 16 – Chrystia Freeland, the incumbent deputy prime minister and minister of finance, resigned from her position in Justin Trudeau's government prior to the release later that day of the government's fall economic statement due to her opposition to Trudeau's fiscal policy;[108] later that day, she was replaced as Minister of Finance by Dominic LeBlanc, while the position of Deputy Prime Minister remained vacant.[17][109] Housing minister Sean Fraser also resigned from cabinet the same morning, citing personal reasons.[110]
- December 20 – Trudeau conducted a major cabinet reshuffle. The NDP officially committed to introducing a non-confidence motion against the government. Over 20 Liberal MPs publicly called for Trudeau to resign and over 50 signed a private letter asking him to resign.[111]
2025
- January 6 – Trudeau announced the prorogation of parliament until March 24 that year in addition to his resignation as prime minister and as leader of the Liberal Party, effective upon the election of his successor as party leader in a leadership election.[14]
- February 4 – The Green Party of Canada concludes its co-leadership vote, with Jonathan Pedneault elected co-leader alongside Elizabeth May.[112]
- February 13 – People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier announces he will run in Beauce again.[113]
- March 9 – The 2025 Liberal Party of Canada leadership election is scheduled to conclude with the announcement of a new leader.[114]
Candidates
Opinion polls
See also
Notes
- While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.
- Pedneault ran in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount during the 2023 by-election. He has not disclosed where he intends to run in the 2025 election.
References
Wikiwand - on
Seamless Wikipedia browsing. On steroids.