2025 Canadian federal election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2025 Canadian federal election was held on April 28, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. Mary Simon, the governor general, issued the writs of election on March 23, 2025, after accepting a request to dissolve Parliament from Mark Carney, the incumbent prime minister. This was the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 census. Key issues of the election campaign included the cost of living, housing, crime, and tariffs and threats of annexation from Donald Trump, the president of the United States.[2]
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343 seats in the House of Commons 172 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 28,525,638[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 68.7% ( 6.4 pp)[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Liberal Party won and continued as a minority government. It is the fourth consecutive Liberal government and third consecutive Liberal minority government.[3][4][5] The Liberals also won the popular vote for the first time since 2015.[6] Both the Liberals and the Conservative Party improved upon their vote share and seat count from 2021, while the other parties all lost ground. This was the first election since 2000 in which the Liberals polled over 40 percent, the first since 1988 in which the Conservatives did so,[c] and the first time since 1930 in which both passed that threshold.[7]
Overall, the Liberal Party received 43.7% of the popular vote,[8] their highest vote share since 1980, and the highest for any party in a federal election since 1984.[9] Meanwhile, the election delivered the New Democratic Party (NDP) the worst result in its history, as it received just over six percent of the popular vote and only won seven seats. As a consequence, the NDP lost official party status for the first time since 1993.[10] The concentration of voting in the two major parties was identified by commentators as marking a polarization in Canadian politics and a shift towards a two-party system.[11][12]
The result was a reversal of polling trends which lasted from mid-2023 to January 2025, which had led to projections of the Conservatives winning in a landslide.[13] Carney's replacement of Justin Trudeau as Leader of the Liberal Party played a key role in the turnaround. With his extensive experience as a central banker and his perceived competence, Carney was seen as better equipped to handle the trade war launched by the U.S. and other major economic issues.[14][15] Two sitting party leaders failed to win re-election to their parliamentary seats: Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party and Jagmeet Singh of the NDP.[8][16] Poilievre had held his riding for seven consecutive terms, being first elected in 2004, and his defeat was regarded as a significant setback for the Conservatives.[17]
Background
Summarize
Perspective
The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20, 2021, saw only minor changes from the preceding 2019 election.[18] The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, did not win the popular vote and failed to win enough seats to gain a parliamentary majority, winning only a plurality of seats and retaining its status as a minority government. The Conservative Party won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition.[19][d] In March 2022, the Liberals struck a deal with the fourth-place New Democratic Party (NDP), where the latter would provide confidence and supply for the duration of the Parliament in exchange for certain policy concessions.[20] The agreement lasted until September 2024, when the NDP terminated the deal.[21]
One week after the election, on September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader, citing lack of party support.[22] The subsequent leadership election was won by former leader Elizabeth May, who ran on a "joint ticket" with Jonathan Pedneault, proposing a co-leadership model; Pedneault was officially named the deputy leader, pending a change to the party's constitution to allow co-leadership.[23] May and Pedneault formally became co-leaders on February 4, 2025.[24]
On February 2, 2022, Conservative leader Erin O'Toole was removed as leader by a caucus vote.[25] Following a leadership election, Pierre Poilievre was elected the new leader of the Conservative Party.[26] Because of the decennial redrawing of riding boundaries, many MPs were running in districts that had changed.[27][28]
Government transition
Despite low government approval ratings and a large polling lead for the opposition Conservatives – linked to an ongoing cost of living crisis – Trudeau had insisted he would lead the Liberals into the next general election, and attempt to win a fourth consecutive term. No prime minister had achieved such a feat in more than a century (Trudeau's father had come close, winning a fourth non-consecutive term in 1980, after losing in 1979). Despite his commitment to seek re-election, pressure on Trudeau to step aside had been mounting from the Liberal caucus after by-election losses in safe Liberal seats.[29]
On December 16, 2024, the government was plunged into a political crisis when finance minister Chrystia Freeland abruptly resigned, only hours before she was set to present the government's fall economic statement.[30] The resignation was seen as a clear rebuke of the prime minister from one of his most loyal allies, and sent shockwaves throughout Canadian politics.[31] Trudeau, who had already faced down a caucus revolt in October, was faced with renewed questions about his leadership.[32] By December 22, 21 Liberal MPs had publicly called for Trudeau to step down.[33] On January 6, 2025, Trudeau announced his intention to resign as prime minister after the party elected his successor.[34] The ensuing leadership election was won by Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada.[35] Carney was sworn in as prime minister on March 14, becoming the first prime minister to have never held elected public office prior to their appointment.[36][37]
The crisis occurred against the backdrop of Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 United States presidential election and his threats to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada. Disagreements over how to handle this threat were seen as being a contributor to the Trudeau ministry's collapse.[38][39] However, the Trump administration's conduct soon sparked a political revival for the Liberals, with the ensuing trade war, along with the President's threats to annex Canada, greatly reducing the Liberals' polling gap with the Conservatives.[40] By the time Carney was sworn in as prime minister, the polling gap had been eliminated altogether and the Liberals were in the lead, putting them in striking distance of a majority government. The scale of their political turnaround was described by analysts as having "little precedent" in Canadian history.[41]
Date of the election
Under the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election, the election was scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025.[42] However, elections can occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister, either for a snap election or after the government loses a vote on a supply bill or a specific motion of no confidence.[43]
On March 20, 2024, the government introduced the Electoral Participation Act, which included an amendment to the Canada Elections Act that would have changed the fixed election date to October 27, 2025, to avoid conflicting with Diwali, as well as municipal elections in Alberta.[44][45] The bill died on the order paper when the Parliament of Canada was prorogued by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after he announced his resignation.[46]
On March 23, 2025, after a request from Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Governor General dissolved parliament and called an election for April 28, 2025.[47]
Political parties and standings
The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong, despite being elected as a Liberal, was disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot and served out his term as an independent.[48]
| Name | Ideology | Position | Leader(s) | 2021 result | Standing before election | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||
| Liberal | Liberalism Social liberalism |
Centre to centre-left |
Mark Carney | 160 / 338 |
152 / 338 | ||
| Conservative | Conservatism Social conservatism Economic liberalism |
Centre-right to right-wing |
Pierre Poilievre | 119 / 338 |
120 / 338 | ||
| Bloc Québécois | Quebec nationalism Quebec sovereigntism Social democracy |
Centre-left | Yves-François Blanchet | 32 / 338 |
33 / 338 | ||
| New Democratic | Social democracy | Centre-left to left-wing |
Jagmeet Singh | 25 / 338 |
24 / 338 | ||
| Green | Green politics | Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault |
2 / 338 |
2 / 338 | |||
| Independents | N/A | 0 / 338 |
3 / 338 | ||||
| Vacant | N/A | 4 / 338 | |||||
Electoral system
Canada's electoral system, a "first-past-the-post" system, is formally referred to as a single-member plurality system. Voters select a representative nominated for their electoral district (sometimes referred to as a riding), and the candidate with more votes than any other candidate is elected to a seat in the 343-member House of Commons and represents that riding as its member of parliament (MP). The party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons usually forms government, with that party's leader becoming prime minister. The largest party by seat count that is not the government or part of a governing coalition becomes the Official Opposition. That party receives more finances and privileges than the other opposition parties.[49][50]
An absolute majority of the votes cast in the last election is not needed to form government and is rarely achieved. Additionally, the government party does not need to obtain a majority of the seats in the House of Commons; under the current multi-party system, it is common for the government party to lack a majority. However, to pass bills domestically, the governing party must have support of a majority of MPs. Without majority support, the government can be defeated, then a new party is named government or an election has to be held.[43]
Redistribution
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( Interactive map version, with notional results shown in clickable points)
This was the first election contested under the new electoral districts established in the 2022 redistribution. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2021 were unchanged but regrouped by new electoral district boundaries, as published by Elections Canada.[51]
| Party | MPs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 actual result | 2021 notional result | Change | ||
| Liberal | 160 | 157 |  3 | |
| Conservative | 119 | 126 |  7 | |
| Bloc Québécois | 32 | 34 | 2 | |
| New Democratic | 25 | 24 | 1 | |
| Green | 2 | 2 |  | |
| Total seats | 338 | 343 | 5 | |
Incumbents not running for re-election
| Party | MPs retiring | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 election[e] | At dissolution | ||
| Liberal | 40 | 38 | |
| Conservative | 13 | 12 | |
| New Democratic | 4 | 4 | |
| Bloc Québécois | 4 | 4 | |
| Independent | 0 | 3 | |
| Total | 60 | 60 | |
Sixty MPs announced that they would not run in the 2025 federal election. One MP lost their party nomination race to run again. One MP had their candidacy revoked by their party and was barred from running under its banner.
Four MPs announced their intention not to stand again, but later resigned from Parliament before the election.[52][53][54][55][56] Five further MPs initially announced their intention to stand down before later changing their minds.[57][58][59][60][61][62]
Timeline
2021
- September 27 – Annamie Paul announced her intent to resign as leader of the Green Party.[78]
- November 10 – Paul formally submitted her resignation and ended her membership in the party.[79] The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.[80][81]
- November 15 – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole.[82] Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order.[82] The following day, Batters was removed from the Conservative caucus.[83]
- November 24 – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.[84][85]
- December 5 – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.[86][87]
2022
- February 2 – Erin O'Toole was removed as the leader of the Conservative Party by a caucus vote.[25] Candice Bergen was selected by the party caucus to serve as interim leader.[88][89]
- March 22 – The Liberal and New Democratic parties reached a confidence and supply agreement, with the NDP agreeing to support the Liberal government until June 2025 in exchange for specific policy commitments.[90]
- May 24 – The 2022 Green Party of Canada leadership election officially began, pursuant to the party's constitution.[91]
- September 10 – The 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election concluded with Pierre Poilievre being announced as the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.[26]
- November 19 – The 2022 Green Party of Canada leadership election concluded with Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault announced as winners on a "joint ticket". May became leader and Pedneault deputy leader of the Green Party of Canada, pending a change to the party's constitution to allow co-leadership.[23]
2023
- July 26 – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau conducted a major cabinet reshuffle.[92]
- September 26 – Anthony Rota announced his intention to resign as Speaker of the House of Commons. Louis Plamondon was nominated to replace Rota on an interim basis.[93]
- October 3 – Liberal MP Greg Fergus was elected speaker of the House of Commons. He was the first person of colour to be elected speaker.[94]
2024
- September 4 – The NDP officially ended their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals.[95]
- November 20 – Alberta Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault resigned from Cabinet following allegations that he ran a business seeking federal contracts and falsely claimed to be Indigenous.[96]
- December 9 – Trudeau's Liberal government survived a third motion of no confidence, with the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois voting for the motion, and the Liberals, NDP, and Greens opposed.[97]
- December 16 – Chrystia Freeland, the incumbent deputy prime minister and minister of finance, resigned from her position in Justin Trudeau's government prior to the release later that day of the government's fall economic statement due to her opposition to Trudeau's fiscal policy;[30] later that day, she was replaced as Minister of Finance by Dominic LeBlanc, while the position of Deputy Prime Minister remained vacant.[98] Housing minister Sean Fraser also resigned from cabinet the same morning, citing personal reasons.[99]
- December 20 – Trudeau conducted a major cabinet reshuffle. The NDP officially committed to introducing a non-confidence motion against the government. Over 20 Liberal MPs publicly called for Trudeau to resign and over 50 signed a private letter asking him to resign.[100]
2025
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- January 6 – Trudeau announced the prorogation of parliament until March 24 in addition to his resignation as prime minister and as leader of the Liberal Party, effective upon the election of his successor as party leader in a leadership election.[101]
- January 15 – Trudeau announced that he will not run in Papineau again.[102]
- February 4 – The Green Party of Canada concluded its co-leadership vote, with Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault re-elected as co-leaders.[24]
- February 13 – People's Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier announced he will run in Beauce again.[103]
- March 3 – Green Party of Canada co-leader Jonathan Pedneault announced he will run in Outremont.[104]
- March 9 – The 2025 Liberal Party of Canada leadership election concluded with Mark Carney being announced as the new leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.
- March 14 – Carney was sworn in as the 24th prime minister of Canada, and appointed a new Cabinet, beginning the 30th Canadian Ministry.[105]
- March 20 – Nepean Liberal MP Chandra Arya's nomination is revoked, allegedly due to foreign interference concerns.[106] He had previously been disqualified as a Liberal leadership candidate.[107]
- March 22 – Carney announced that he will run in Nepean.[108]
- March 23 – Carney advised the governor general to dissolve parliament and call a general election for April 28, 2025.[109]
- April 7 and 9 – Deadline for candidate nominations; final list of candidates published.[110]
- April 16 and 17 – French and English language leaders' debates hosted by the Leaders' Debates Commission took place in Montreal.[111]
- April 18 to 21 – Advance polling took place. According to an Elections Canada estimate released on April 22, 7.3 million electors participated in advance polls.[112]
- April 22 – Last day to vote at an Elections Canada office or to apply to vote by mail.
- April 28 – Election Day.
Campaign
Summarize
Perspective
Contests
When nominations were closed on April 7, Elections Canada announced that 1,959 candidates would be running for election.[113] No party fielded full slates of candidates in all 343 ridings, though the Bloc Québécois, which only runs candidates in Quebec, covered all 78 Quebec constituencies. The Liberals, Conservatives and NDP were all one short,[114] respectively in Ponoka—Didsbury,[115] Québec Centre[116] and South Shore—St. Margarets.[117] In Ponoka—Didsbury, Zarnab Zafar was not identified as a Liberal allegedly because of "a clerical error with Elections Canada" and is under no affiliation, but the Liberals endorsed her. In Québec Centre, there was said to be "an issue with paperwork" causing the Conservative candidate's nomination to be rejected after the deadline for candidate registrations.[118] The NDP candidate in South Shore—St. Margarets withdrew for personal reasons,[114] and an independent candidate in the riding was endorsed by the NDP afterward.[117]
The Longest Ballot Committee targeted Poilievre's Carleton riding, which had 83 independents nominated, therefore there were a total of 91 candidates running in the riding.[119] When asked why they did not do similar efforts in the constituencies of other party leaders, the organizers said it was a matter of limited resources.[120]
| Candidates nominated | Ridings | Party | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | Con | NDP | PPC | Green | Ind | BQ | MLP | CHP | Rhino | Comm | Oth | Totals | ||
| 3 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 45 | |||||||||
| 4 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 27 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 240 | ||
| 5 | 113 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 85 | 78 | 9 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 565 |
| 6 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 84 | 81 | 34 | 35 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 24 | 570 |
| 7 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 32 | 33 | 19 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 259 |
| 8 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 104 |
| 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 54 |
| 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | ||
| 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 83 | 1 | 3 | 91 | |||||
| Total | 343 | 342 | 342 | 342 | 247 | 232 | 177 | 78 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 24 | 79 | 1,959 |
Party slogans
| Party | English | French | Translation (unofficial) | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| █ Liberal | "Canada Strong" |
"Un Canada fort" |
"A strong Canada" |
|
| █ Conservative | "Canada First – for a Change" |
"Le Canada d'abord – pour faire changement" |
"Canada First – to make a Change" |
|
| █ Bloc Québécois | — | "Je choisis le Québec" |
"I choose Québec" |
|
| █ New Democratic | "In it for you" |
"Du cœur au ventre" |
"From the heart to the stomach" or "To be brave" |
|
| █ Green | "Change. Vote for it." |
"Votez pour du changement" |
"Vote for change" |
|
Policy platforms
| Party | Full platform |
|---|---|
| █ Liberal | Canada Strong[127] |
| █ Conservative | Canada First. For a Change[128] |
| █ Bloc Québécois | Choisir le Québec[129] |
| █ New Democratic | Made for People. Built for Canada.[130] |
| █ Green | Change. Vote For It.[131] |
Endorsements
| Type | Liberal | Conservative | Bloc Québécois | New Democratic | Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Media | |||||
| Public figures | |||||
| Unions and business associations |
|
|
Leaders' debates
In its May 2022 report, the Leaders' Debates Commission recommended various improvements for future debates, and that it remain a permanent publicly funded entity to organize leaders' debates.[169][170] In October 2024, the Leaders' Debate Commission announced that the English-language debate would be hosted by TVO's Steve Paikin, while the French-language debate would be hosted by Ici RDI's Patrice Roy.[171] TVA Nouvelles had announced plans to host its own French-language debate with the Bloc, Conservative, Liberal, and NDP leaders, but cancelled the event after the Liberal Party withdrew.[172][173]
On April 1, 2025, the Commission announced that it had invited the leaders of the Bloc Québécois, Conservative Party, Green Party, Liberal Party, and New Democratic Party to the debates. Invitations were issued on the basis of meeting at least two of three conditions: having at least one sitting MP, recording at least 4% support in national opinion polling, and endorsing candidates in at least 90 percent of ridings.[174] The Green Party's invitation was rescinded on April 16 as it ultimately ran candidates in 232 ridings (less than 70 percent) despite earlier submitting to the Commission that it would run candidates in every riding.[175][176] The People's Party was not invited, as it did not meet the criteria of either holding a seat in Parliament or polling at least 4%.[174][111][g]
On April 15, the leaders of the Bloc Québécois and the NDP suggested rescheduling the French language debate because of the debate coinciding with the final hockey game of the Montreal Canadiens' regular season, after it became clear the game would decide whether the Canadiens would make the playoffs. The Commission declined to reschedule the debate to a different day, but agreed to move the start time two hours earlier to 6:00 pm EDT.[178]
A post-debate news scrum after the French language debate was dominated by the far-right Rebel News and other right-wing media outlets, leading to complaints from other journalists at the event.[179] Michel Cormier, the Commission's executive director, responded that he was "unaware" that Rebel News and another organization associated with Rebel founder Ezra Levant were registered as third-party advertisers with Elections Canada.[180][181] In an interview, David Cochrane of CBC News asked Cormier about the fairness of the distribution of questions among outlets and the type of questions asked. Cormier responded, "There's only so much we can do to control free speech."[182] During the English language debate the next day, CTV News and The Globe and Mail reported a disturbance between Levant and journalists from other outlets, and a Global News reporter suggested that Rebel staff tried to interfere with the live broadcast of the debate.[179] Cormier abruptly cancelled the planned news scrum, citing security concerns, as Montreal Police secured the venue.[181][183]
| Date | Organizers | Location | Language | Moderator | P Participant A Absent (invited) I Invited R Rescinded invitation N Not invited | Source | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carney | Poilievre | Blanchet | Singh | Pedneault[h] | ||||||
| April 16, 2025 | Leaders' Debates Commission | Maison de Radio-Canada, Montreal | French | Patrice Roy | P | P | P | P | R[i] | [171][111][174] |
| April 17, 2025 | English | Steve Paikin | P | P | P | P | R[i] | [111][174] | ||
Opinion polls
Results
Summarize
Perspective
Candidate nominations were open until April 7, with Elections Canada publishing a list of nominated candidates on April 9.[121]
| Party | Party leader | Candidates | Seats | Popular vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Dissol. | 2025 | Change from 2021 |
% seats | Votes | Vote change |
% | pp change | % where running | ||||
| Liberal | Mark Carney | 342[j] | 160 | 152 | 168 | 8 | 49.0% | ||||||
| Conservative | Pierre Poilievre | 342[k] | 119 | 120 | 144 | 25 | 42.0% | ||||||
| Bloc Québécois | Yves-François Blanchet | 78 | 32 | 33 | 23 | 9 | 6.7% | ||||||
| New Democratic | Jagmeet Singh | 342[l] | 25 | 24 | 7 | 18 | 2.0% | ||||||
| Green | Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault | 232 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.3% | ||||||
| People's | Maxime Bernier | 247 | – | – | – | | – | ||||||
| Independent and No Affiliation | 177[m] | – | 3 | – | | – | |||||||
| Christian Heritage | Rodney L. Taylor | 32 | – | – | – | | – | ||||||
| Rhinoceros | Chinook B. Blais-Leduc | 29 | – | – | – | | – | ||||||
| United | Grant S. Abraham | 16 | New | – | – | New | – | New | New | ||||
| Libertarian | Jacques Y. Boudreau | 16 | – | – | – | | – | ||||||
| Marxist–Leninist | Anna Di Carlo | 35 | – | – | – | | – | ||||||
| Communist | Elizabeth Rowley | 24 | – | – | – | | – | ||||||
| Centrist | A. Q. Rana | 19 | – | – | – | | – | ||||||
| Canadian Future | Dominic Cardy | 19 | New | – | – | New | – | New | New | ||||
| Animal Protection | Liz White | 7 | – | – | – | | – | ||||||
| Marijuana | Blair T. Longley | 2 | – | – | – | | – | ||||||
| Vacant | 4 | — | |||||||||||
| Total valid votes | 100.00% | – | – | ||||||||||
| Total rejected ballots | – | ||||||||||||
| Total | 1,959 | 338 | 338 | 343 | 5 | 100.00% | 100.00% | – | 100.00% | ||||
| Electorate (eligible voters)/turnout | – | ||||||||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[121] | |||||||||||||
Judicial recounts
With differences in votes slimmer than 0.1%, judicial recounts are expected in following ridings:[185]
| Riding | first and second place | Recount date | Judicially certified results, first and second place | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | % | Candidate | Votes | % | ||||
| Terra Nova—The Peninsulas, Newfoundland | Anthony Germain, Liberal | 19,704 | 47.97% | ||||||
| Jonathan Rowe, Conservative | 19,692 | 47.94% | |||||||
| Terrebonne, Quebec | Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, BQ | 23,340 | 38.77% | ||||||
| Tatiana Auguste, Liberal | 23,296 | 38.70% | |||||||
MPs who lost re-election
Analysis and aftermath
Summarize
Perspective
The election results were a huge contrast to the polling estimates prior to the election. In December 2024, the Conservatives had a 20 percentage point lead over the Liberals; however, Trudeau's resignation and U.S. president Donald Trump's hostile foreign policy towards Canada were reasons that led to a significant change in public opinion that favored the Liberals. Additionally, strategic voting played a role in the election, which benefitted the Liberals. The declining performance of the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the election was also attributed to strategic voting.[186]
Liberal Party
The Liberal Party regained a leading position in this election, reversing previous polling in which it trailed behind the Conservative Party. With a vote share of 43.7%, it achieved its highest level of support since 1980 and marked its strongest performance since taking office in 2015. Although the party secured 168 seats—falling short of the 172 needed for a majority—it successfully formed a minority government.
The Liberals led in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and the Atlantic provinces. Quebec saw the most notable gains, with the party winning 10 more seats than in 2021. The Liberals also performed well in the Toronto area, reclaiming a seat lost in last year's by-election. However, their seat count in Ontario dropped by five compared to the previous election. In Manitoba, the party won six seats, just one fewer than the Conservatives.[187][188]
Carney made a victory speech on election night after winning his seat of Nepean; he emphasized that regardless of which party Canadians supported, he would strive to be a prime minister for all. He said he would "always do my best to serve everyone who calls Canada home". On international matters, Carney expressed serious concern regarding Trump. He criticized Trump for imposing tariffs and using trade pressure in attempts to weaken Canada's economy, while also publicly questioning the country's sovereignty ("There is someone trying to undermine our economy: Donald Trump"). In response to Trump's past remarks suggesting that Canada could become the 51st state of the U.S., Carney firmly declared, "The United States is not Canada. Canada will never, under any circumstance, become part of the United States."[189] Carney received congratulations from domestic leaders, including Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta, Premier Doug Ford of Ontario, Premier Scott Moe of Saskatchewan, and Mayor Olivia Chow of Toronto.[190]
Conservative Party
Despite the Conservatives' defeat in the election, their vote share rose to a generational high (their best since 1988). The Conservatives made gains in traditionally Liberal leaning ridings such as the Greater Toronto Area, as well as in working-class regions elsewhere such as in Windsor and in northern Ontario, traditionally weak areas for the party,[191] and made gains in British Columbia (particularly outside of Metro Vancouver) which political analyst Douglas Todd stated "helped shatter the myth that people who normally vote NDP would never vote for the Conservatives".[192] The Conservatives also gained 25 seats, more than the 8 seats the Liberals had gained. After the election results were announced, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre delivered a concession speech in which he emphasized that he would continue to serve as Conservative Party leader, and that the party would remain an effective opposition in Parliament, focusing on issues such as the economy, cost of living, housing, and defending the interests of Canadians.[193] Shortly after the speech, it was confirmed that he had been defeated by Liberal Party candidate Bruce Fanjoy in the riding of Carleton.[194] Voters in the area told the CBC that Poilievre's support for the 2022 Freedom Convoy protest which occupied part of the city core and his pledge to reduce the public service contributed to his loss in the riding.[195] Calls for Poilievre to resign as Conservative leader grew following the election result.[196][197]
Bloc Québécois
After learning the results of the election, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet admitted his party had suffered a setback and accepted the voters' decision. He acknowledged the party's losses but pointed to external factors, such as Trump's tariff policies and controversial remarks about Canada, as well as the Liberal Party's perceived use of fear-based campaigning, as contributing to the defeat. Blanchet stressed that the Bloc would remain committed to standing up for Quebec's interests and called for cooperation among all parties in Parliament to meet the country's shared responsibilities. He added that the Bloc would continue to play a constructive role in Parliament to ensure Quebecers' voices are not sidelined at the federal level. He also noted that the seats won by the Bloc place it in a position of influence in a minority government. He said, "We will speak up for Quebec clearly and confidently, but we will do so in a way that fosters unity rather than division."[198][199]
New Democratic Party
On election night, having been defeated in Burnaby Central and with the NDP at risk of losing official party status, Jagmeet Singh announced that he would resign as party leader once an interim leader was chosen in advance of the next leadership election.[200] Singh confirmed that he had informed the party's senior leadership of his incoming resignation and said he would assist with the transition until an interim leader is chosen.[201] In a candid statement, Singh acknowledged the outcome as disappointing but emphasized that it was part of the democratic process. As party leader, he stated he must take political responsibility for the result. Singh said, "Leading the New Democratic Party has been one of the greatest honours of my life, although today's result is difficult to accept, my belief in this party remains unshaken. I believe it is time for new voices and new energy to take us into the next chapter."[202]
Green Party
Jonathan Pedneault, the co-leader of the Green Party, was not elected to a seat in Parliament, with the party winning just one seat, resulting in the party's worst popular vote since 2000. As a result, Pedneault announced his resignation as co-leader shortly after the election.[203]
International reactions
Carney received calls and messages of congratulations from world leaders, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom, President Donald Trump of the United States, President Emmanuel Macron of France, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India.[204][205]
Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese congratulated Carney on his election victory, expressing a commitment to strengthening the longstanding friendship between Australia and Canada. He emphasized the importance of continued cooperation amid global uncertainty for the benefit of both nations' citizens.[206]
Brazil: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva congratulated Carney on his election victory, said it intends to deepen cooperation “in areas of mutual interest, such as the promotion and protection of human rights and the fight against climate change.” And it signaled an interest in taking a step forward in a possible agreement between Mercosur and the Canadian government.[207]
Czech Republic: Prime Minister Petr Fiala congratulated Carney on his electoral victory, emphasizing that Canada is a key partner and ally of the Czech Republic. He expressed eagerness to strengthen bilateral cooperation, both within NATO and in the broader context of Canada–EU relations.[208]
Finland: Prime Minister Petteri Orpo congratulated Carney on his election as Prime Minister of Canada and expressed his hopes for continued close cooperation between Finland and Canada. He also extended his best wishes to Carney in his new role.[209]
France: President Emmanuel Macron congratulated Carney on his victory, praising his leadership as a symbol of a strong Canada amid global challenges. Macron expressed enthusiasm for deepening the Franco-Canadian friendship and looked forward to working closely "elbow to elbow" with the new Canadian leader.[210]
India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Carney and the Liberal Party on their election victory. Highlighting the shared democratic values, rule of law, and strong people-to-people ties between India and Canada, Modi expressed his intention to work with Carney to strengthen bilateral relations and expand opportunities for both nations.[211]
Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Carney and the Liberal Party on their electoral victory, expressing deep appreciation for Canada's steadfast support. He acknowledged Canada's leadership in providing military, financial, and humanitarian aid, as well as imposing sanctions on Russia. Zelenskyy voiced confidence in an even stronger partnership grounded in shared values of peace, justice, and security.[212]
United Kingdom: Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Carney on his election victory and emphasized the importance of strengthening the economic relationship between the UK and Canada, highlighting shared goals of security and prosperity for working people.[213]
United States: President Donald Trump congratulated Carney on his victory, with the two leaders agreeing to meet in the near future.[214][215]
Student vote results
Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.[216]
| 162 | 149 | 17 | 13 | 2 |
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | Green |
| Party | Leader | Seats | Popular vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elected | % | Δ | Votes | % | Δ (pp) | |||
| Conservative | Pierre Poilievre | 162 | 47.23 | 74 | 326,201 | 36.36 | 11.28 | |
| Liberal | Mark Carney | 149 | 43.44 | 32 | 285,294 | 31.80 | 7.76 | |
| Bloc Québécois | Yves-François Blanchet | 17 | 4.96 | 4 | 19,638 | 2.19 | 0.13 | |
| New Democratic | Jagmeet Singh | 13 | 3.79 | 94 | 130,015 | 14.49 | 13.98 | |
| Green | Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 66,628 | 7.43 | 2.35 | |
| Other | 0 | 0 | | 37,735 | 4.21 | 0.27 | ||
| People's | Maxime Bernier | 0 | 0 | | 31,625 | 3.53 | 3.27 | |
| Total | 343 | 100.00 | 5 | 897,136 | 100.00 | – | ||
| Source: Student Vote Canada[217] | ||||||||
See also
- 1911 Canadian federal election (Canada–US relations elections)
- 1988 Canadian federal election (Canada–US relations elections)
- 2017 United Kingdom general election (held during Brexit negotiations and saw a similar increase in support for the main two parties)
- Candidates of the 2025 Canadian federal election
- List of Canadian federal general elections
Notes
- Burnaby South, which Singh represented before the election, was abolished during the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution; Singh ran for re-election in the new riding of Burnaby Central, which encompasses much of the same territory.
- At that time, their predecessor party, the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada (then led by Brian Mulroney) was active. Moreover, this remains true even when combining the Progressive Conservative and Reform/Canadian Alliance vote shares from 1993 through 2000.
- While formal results showed the Liberals winning 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and sat as an Independent in the House of Commons from 2021 to 2025.
- Under the 2021 debate rules, the party would have qualified by having received over 4% (4.94%) of the vote in the 2021 election.[177] This criterion was removed in the 2025 eligibility rules.
- Despite having two co-leaders, the Greens chose Pedneault to represent them in all debates and interviews.[184]
- Invited on April 1. Invitation rescinded on April 16 due to the party running candidates in fewer than 90% of ridings.[176]
- In the riding of Ponoka—Didsbury, Zarnab Zafar was endorsed by the Liberal Party, but, due to a clerical error with Elections Canada, her party affiliation was not registered.[114]
- In the riding of Québec Centre, Conservative candidate Chanie Thériault had her paperwork rejected by Elections Canada; the party did not specify the reason(s).[114]
- In the riding of South Shore—St. Margarets, NDP candidate Brendan Mosher dropped out of the race for personal reasons. Hayden Henderson was endorsed by the NDP, but was listed on the ballot as an Independent candidate.[114][117]
- 159 Independents, 18 No Affiliation; 83 participated in the Longest Ballot Committee protest in the riding of Carleton.
References
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