天際線掃描

天際線掃描或地平線掃描是劍橋大學生物學家William Sutherland在2008年提出的對環境與生物多樣性問題的一種未來學研究方法^[1]^[2]。

天際線掃描方法是基於德爾菲技術(Delphi Technique)改進的系統預測方法。從2009年開始每年進行年度全球環境保護的天際線掃描。方法是每年組成一個20人的專家組，每個專家再獨立與其他人一起提出兩個以上的全球性的環境保護問題，並提供一個對問題簡單的描述。然後由每個專家對所有問題進行評議打分（1-1000分），並選出35個得分最高的問題，以及一些認為值得討論的問題。在提交給專家組評議後，重新打分選出15個得分最高問題，作為年度全球環境保護問題^[1]。

歷年全球環境保護天際線掃描問題

2010年^[3]
- 微塑料污染、納米銀廢水、試管肉、人工生命、平流層氣溶膠、生物碳、移動傳感技術、海洋去氧、反硝化細菌的變化、高緯度地區火山爆發、印度洋–太平洋捕食性入侵魚類、跨北極的物種擴散與遷移、協助遷移、減少毀林及森林退化所致排放量對非森林生態系統的影響、大規模跨國土地投資
2011年^[4]
- 亞洲牛奶消費增長的環境效應、新型溫室氣體、全氟化合物的生物學效應、海冰消失而導致的極地海域生物生產力的提高、、充電電池消費增長帶來的鋰礦開採、遺傳技術滅蚊、硝酸雨、土壤生態學的顯著變化、否認生物多樣性喪失、保護地失效、牛瘟再現、氣候治理、海洋的轉化及海洋物種的馴養、北美森林中的蚯蚓造成的植被變化、水力壓裂
2012年^[5]
- 深海變暖、深海採礦、海底甲烷逸出、氣候導致的南極水域物種定殖、人口老化帶來的製藥廢水排放的增加、為食物安全而進行的無菌耕作、將固氮能力轉到穀物、多年生穀物的增加、快速廉價的基因組測序、電化學海水淡化、石墨烯材料的快速發展與廣泛應用、核電池、水泥需求增長對喀斯特森林與岩洞生態系統的影響、流水動力渦輪機、北極苔原的燃燒
2013年^[6]
- 聚光太陽能熱發電的快速發展、釷燃料發電的廣泛發展、海底石油的開採與加工、水循環加速、安第斯亞馬遜地區的水電發展、物種消失成為全球環境變化的驅動力、水產養殖飼料的素食化、全球對椰子汁需求急劇增長、用環境DNA監測水生物種、用珊瑚托兒所修復珊瑚、利用微型無人機保護與恢復森林、3D打印革命、生物多樣性和過敏與自體免疫性疾病的聯繫、抗微生物肽的商用、合成遺傳學
2014年^[7]
- 金融市場對不可燃碳的反應, 東南亞由於泥炭地沉降導致的大量土地流失、碳太陽能電池作為可再生能源的替代來源, 快速擴大的生物燃料大規模養殖, 生態系統全球增溫的再分配, 土地覆蓋變化的高頻監測, 入侵物種的基因控制, 野生犀牛與象的加速消失, 海島非土著動物的加速消失，用於控制非土著入侵物種的自養遺傳系統, 益生菌治療兩棲動物，新出現的危及蛇類的致病真菌, 聚異丁烯成為海洋污染物, 南極的開發, 生態系統紅色名錄的擴展、絕滅物種的復甦
2015年^[8]
- 破壞昆蟲感測空氣中化合物能力的化合物，垃圾製作的生物塑料，藻類作為棕櫚油的替代品，電動載具的使用，娛樂性藥物的合法化，煤的地下氣化，藥物誘導導致的水生生物的消失，高產農業的可持續集約化，印度洋-太平洋地區珊瑚病的增加,南極海冰下降對磷蝦的影響，與冰撤退有關的新型沿海生態系統，提升非人類物種的法律地位，投資的影響，環境科學的再現性，自由貿易談判中投資者—國家爭端解決
2016年^[9]
- 超人工智能，改變能源存儲與消費模型的成本，中國的生態文明政策，電脈衝牽引，海水鹽差能，把人工飼養蜂群作為載體，在北冰洋中部不受管制的漁業對魚類種群的威脅擴大，人工島建設的日益擴大，水分中睾酮濃度的增加，工程納米顆粒對陸生生態系統的影響，通過衛星訪問船載自動識別系統，被動聲學監測以防止非法活動，合成瀕危動物的身體部位，人工冰川調節灌溉，把入侵物種作為遺傳多樣性的倉庫

參考文獻

[1]
Zhigang, Jiang. Horizon Scanning: a new method for environmental and biodiversity conservation. Biodiversity Science. 2014, 22 (2): 115. doi:10.3724/SP.J.1003.2014.14032 .
[2]
Sutherland, William J.; Bailey, Mark J.; Bainbridge, Ian P.; Brereton, Tom; Dick, Jaimie T. A.; Drewitt, Joanna; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Dusic, Nicholas R.; Freckleton, Robert P.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gilder, Pam M.; Green, Rhys E.; Heathwaite, A. Louise; Johnson, Sally M.; Macdonald, David W.; Mitchell, Roger; Osborn, Daniel; Owen, Roger P.; Pretty, Jules; Prior, Stephanie V.; Prosser, Havard; Pullin, Andrew S.; Rose, Paul; Stott, Andrew; Tew, Tom; Thomas, Chris D.; Thompson, Des B. A.; Vickery, Juliet A.; Walker, Matt; Walmsley, Clive; Warrington, Stuart; Watkinson, Andrew R.; Williams, Rich J.; Woodroffe, Rosie; Woodroof, Harry J. PRIORITY CONTRIBUTION: Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2007-10-09, 45 (3): 821–833. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
[3]
Sutherland, William J.; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Daszak, Peter; Depledge, Michael H.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Garthwaite, Rachel; Gibbons, David W.; De Lurio, Jennifer; Impey, Andrew J.; Lickorish, Fiona; Lindenmayer, David; Madgwick, Jane; Margerison, Ceri; Maynard, Trevor; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Prior, Stephanie; Redford, Kent H.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2010-01, 25 (1): 1–7. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.003. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
[4]
Sutherland, William J.; Bardsley, Sarah; Bennun, Leon; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Depledge, Michael H.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica. Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2011-01, 26 (1): 10–16. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2010.11.002.
[5]
Sutherland, William J.; Aveling, Ros; Bennun, Leon; Chapman, Eleanor; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Depledge, Michael H.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Lindenmayer, David B.; Monk, Kathryn A.; Norris, Kenneth; Peck, Lloyd S.; Prior, Stephanie V.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2012-01, 27 (1): 12–18. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.10.011. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
[6]
Sutherland, William J.; Bardsley, Sarah; Clout, Mick; Depledge, Michael H.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Margerison, Ceri; Monk, Kathryn A.; Norris, Kenneth; Peck, Lloyd S.; Prior, Stephanie V.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark D.; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2013-01, 28 (1): 16–22. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.10.022. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
[7]
Sutherland, William J.; Aveling, Rosalind; Brooks, Thomas M.; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Monk, Kathryn A.; Mortimer, Diana; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockstr?m, Johan; Rodr?guez, Jon Paul; Smith, Rebecca K.; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2014-01, 29 (1): 15–22. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004 .
[8]
Sutherland, William J.; Clout, Mick; Depledge, Michael; Dicks, Lynn V.; Dinsdale, Jason; Entwistle, Abigail C.; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Monk, Kathryn A.; Ockendon, Nancy; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockström, Johan; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Wintle, Bonnie C. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2015. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2015-01, 30 (1): 17–24. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.11.002. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
[9]
Sutherland, William J.; Broad, Steven; Caine, Jacqueline; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V.; Doran, Helen; Entwistle, Abigail C.; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; LeAnstey, Becky; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Markillie, Paul; Monk, Kathryn A.; Mortimer, Diana; Ockendon, Nancy; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockstr?m, Johan; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Wintle, Bonnie C.; Wright, Katherine E. A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2016-01, 31 (1): 44–53. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2015.11.007. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)

[10.3724/SP.J.1003.2014.14032-1] [1]
Zhigang, Jiang. Horizon Scanning: a new method for environmental and biodiversity conservation. Biodiversity Science. 2014, 22 (2): 115. doi:10.3724/SP.J.1003.2014.14032 .

[2] [2]
Sutherland, William J.; Bailey, Mark J.; Bainbridge, Ian P.; Brereton, Tom; Dick, Jaimie T. A.; Drewitt, Joanna; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Dusic, Nicholas R.; Freckleton, Robert P.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gilder, Pam M.; Green, Rhys E.; Heathwaite, A. Louise; Johnson, Sally M.; Macdonald, David W.; Mitchell, Roger; Osborn, Daniel; Owen, Roger P.; Pretty, Jules; Prior, Stephanie V.; Prosser, Havard; Pullin, Andrew S.; Rose, Paul; Stott, Andrew; Tew, Tom; Thomas, Chris D.; Thompson, Des B. A.; Vickery, Juliet A.; Walker, Matt; Walmsley, Clive; Warrington, Stuart; Watkinson, Andrew R.; Williams, Rich J.; Woodroffe, Rosie; Woodroof, Harry J. PRIORITY CONTRIBUTION: Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2007-10-09, 45 (3): 821–833. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)

[3] [3]
Sutherland, William J.; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Daszak, Peter; Depledge, Michael H.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Garthwaite, Rachel; Gibbons, David W.; De Lurio, Jennifer; Impey, Andrew J.; Lickorish, Fiona; Lindenmayer, David; Madgwick, Jane; Margerison, Ceri; Maynard, Trevor; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Prior, Stephanie; Redford, Kent H.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2010-01, 25 (1): 1–7. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.003. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)

[4] [4]
Sutherland, William J.; Bardsley, Sarah; Bennun, Leon; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Depledge, Michael H.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica. Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2011-01, 26 (1): 10–16. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2010.11.002.

[5] [5]
Sutherland, William J.; Aveling, Ros; Bennun, Leon; Chapman, Eleanor; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Depledge, Michael H.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Lindenmayer, David B.; Monk, Kathryn A.; Norris, Kenneth; Peck, Lloyd S.; Prior, Stephanie V.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2012-01, 27 (1): 12–18. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.10.011. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)

[6] [6]
Sutherland, William J.; Bardsley, Sarah; Clout, Mick; Depledge, Michael H.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Margerison, Ceri; Monk, Kathryn A.; Norris, Kenneth; Peck, Lloyd S.; Prior, Stephanie V.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark D.; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2013-01, 28 (1): 16–22. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.10.022. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)

[7] [7]
Sutherland, William J.; Aveling, Rosalind; Brooks, Thomas M.; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Monk, Kathryn A.; Mortimer, Diana; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockstr?m, Johan; Rodr?guez, Jon Paul; Smith, Rebecca K.; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2014-01, 29 (1): 15–22. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004 .

[8] [8]
Sutherland, William J.; Clout, Mick; Depledge, Michael; Dicks, Lynn V.; Dinsdale, Jason; Entwistle, Abigail C.; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Monk, Kathryn A.; Ockendon, Nancy; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockström, Johan; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Wintle, Bonnie C. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2015. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2015-01, 30 (1): 17–24. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.11.002. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)

[9] [9]
Sutherland, William J.; Broad, Steven; Caine, Jacqueline; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V.; Doran, Helen; Entwistle, Abigail C.; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; LeAnstey, Becky; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Markillie, Paul; Monk, Kathryn A.; Mortimer, Diana; Ockendon, Nancy; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockstr?m, Johan; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Wintle, Bonnie C.; Wright, Katherine E. A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2016-01, 31 (1): 44–53. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2015.11.007. 無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)

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