2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

Main article: 2024 United States Senate elections

Not to be confused with 2024 Ohio Senate election.

The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown ran for re-election to a fourth term, but was defeated by Republican nominee Bernie Moreno.^[1][2] Along with Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania and Jon Tester in Montana, Brown was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024.^[3]

2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
Turnout	69.9% 15.3 pp
Nominee Bernie Moreno Sherrod Brown Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 2,857,383 2,650,949 Percentage 50.09% 46.47%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Moreno:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Brown:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. senator before election Sherrod Brown Democratic Elected U.S. senator Bernie Moreno Republican

This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections (the other being Montana). Brown's re-election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the senate majority in 2024.^[4] This was the most expensive U.S. Senate election of 2024, with a record-breaking 483.4 million dollars spent in total.^[5][6]

Although Brown outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election, receiving around 2.6% more of the vote, it was still not enough to win. Moreno defeated Brown by 3.62 percentage points, which was a slightly larger margin than expected. This was Brown's second general election loss of his political career. Brown received about 120,000 more votes than Harris, while Moreno received about 320,000 fewer votes than Trump.

Moreno's campaign was aided by Republican nominee Donald Trump's 11.21% margin of victory in Ohio, helping secure an outright majority for Senate Republicans for the first time since 2021, with a net gain of 4 seats in the 2024 elections.

Moreno's swearing in on January 3, 2025 gave Republicans control of both of Ohio's U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 2007. As Ohio's other U.S. senator, JD Vance, was elected Vice President of the United States, Moreno became Ohio's senior senator upon Vance's resignation.

Background

After voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Ohio has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a red state. Republicans hold all statewide offices in addition to the majority in both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans also have a majority of the state's US House delegation.

Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in 2016 and again in 2020 by 8 points.

Republican JD Vance, now the 2024 Republican vice presidential nominee, defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by slightly over 6 points.^[7][8]

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating Senator Mike DeWine (who was subsequently elected governor), and won reelection in 2012 and 2018. If he had been reelected he would have been only the second Ohioan to be elected to the United States Senate four times, the other being John Glenn^{[9][10][11][12]} Brown led most polls for most of the year.^[13]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–2025)^[1]

Endorsements

Sherrod Brown

U.S. senators

• Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)^[14]

Political parties

• Ohio Democratic Party^[15]

Organizations

• Bend the Arc^[16]
• Council for a Livable World^[17]
• End Citizens United^[18]
• Feminist Majority PAC^[19]
• Human Rights Campaign^[20]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America^[21]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[22]
• J Street PAC^[23]
• League of Conservation Voters^[24]
• Natural Resources Defense Council^[25]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund^[26]
• Population Connection Action Fund^[27]
• Reproductive Freedom for All^[28]
• Sierra Club^[29]
• Swing Left^[30]

Labor unions

• National Education Association^[31]
• North Shore AFL-CIO^[32]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Sherrod Brown (D)	$27,838,244	$14,594,991	$14,614,497
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown	Shontel Brown	Tim Ryan	Undecided
Ohio Northern University[34]	October 16–19, 2023	256 (LV)[b]	± 8.3%	58%	6%	15%	21%
Ohio Northern University[35]	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	59%	7%	17%	17%

Hypothetical polling

Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown

Results

Democratic primary results^[36]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Sherrod Brown (incumbent)	535,305	100.0%
Total votes			535,305	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Bernie Moreno, former car dealership owner, father-in-law of U.S. representative Max Miller, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022^[37]

Eliminated in primary

• Matt Dolan, state senator from the 24th district (2017–2024) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022^[38]
• Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)^[39]

Failed to qualify

• Doug Stuart, retired businessman^[40][41]

Declined

• Warren Davidson, U.S. representative for Ohio's 8th congressional district (2016–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Moreno)^[42][43]
• Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist and sports car racing driver (endorsed Moreno)^[44]
• Josh Mandel, former Ohio State Treasurer (2011–2019), nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate in 2018 and 2022^[45]
• Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive^[46] (ran unsuccessfully for president, endorsed Moreno)^[47][48]

Debates

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Candidates
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
					Matt Dolan	Frank LaRose	Bernie Moreno
1	January 22, 2024	FOX 8	Colleen Marshall Joe Toohey	FOX 8[49]	P	P	P
2	February 19, 2024	Spectrum News	Mike Kallmeyer	Spectrum News[50]	P	P	P
3	March 6, 2024	WLWT	Sheree Paolello	YouTube[51]	P	P	P

Endorsements

Matt Dolan

U.S. senators

• Rob Portman, Ohio (2011–2023)^[52]

Governors

• Mike DeWine, Governor of Ohio (2019–present)^[53]

State representatives

• Gayle Manning, HD-52 (2019–present)^[54]

Local officials

• Greg Lashutka, former mayor of Columbus (1992–2000)^[55]

Individuals

• Dee Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns^[56]
• Jimmy Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns^[56]

Newspapers

• The Plain Dealer (Republican primary only)^[57]

Frank LaRose

U.S. representatives

• Mike Turner, OH-10 (2003–present)^[58]

State representatives

• Mike Loychik, HD-65 (2021–present)^[59]
• Melanie Miller, HD-67 (2023–present)^[60]
• Josh Williams, HD-41 (2023–present)^[59]

Political parties

• Scioto County Republican Party^[61]

Organizations

• Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with Moreno)^[62]

Bernie Moreno

U.S. presidents

• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)^[63]

U.S. ambassadors

• Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)^[64]

U.S. senators

• John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)^[65]
• Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)^[66]
• Norm Coleman, Minnesota (2003–2009)^[67]
• Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)^[68]
• Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)^[69]
• Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming (2021–present)^[70]
• Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)^[71]
• Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)^[71]
• Marco Rubio, Florida (2011–2025)^[72]
• Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)^[61]
• Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)^[73]
• JD Vance, Ohio (2023–2025)^[74]

U.S. representatives

• Warren Davidson, OH-08 (2016–present)^[43]
• Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House (1995−1999) from GA-06 (1979−1999)^[75]
• Jim Jordan, OH-04 (2007–present)^[70]
• Max Miller, OH-07 (2023–present) (candidate's son-in-law)^[66]
• Lee Zeldin, NY-01 (2015–2023)^[76]

Governors

• Kristi Noem, South Dakota (2019–2025)^[77]

Statewide officials

• Ken Blackwell, former Ohio Secretary of State (1999–2007)^[78]
• Dave Yost, Ohio Attorney General (2019–present)^[79]

Individuals

• David Bossie, president of Citizens United^[80]
• Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist^[44]
• Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor^[81]
• Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024^[48]
• Donald Trump Jr., businessman and executive vice president of The Trump Organization^[82]

Political parties

• Brown County Republican Party^[83]
• Clermont County Republican Party^[84]
• Cuyahoga County Republican Party^[61]
• Greene County Republican Party^[83]
• Preble County Republican Party^[83]
• Summit County Republican Party^[83]
• Warren County Republican Party^[83]

Organizations

• Club for Growth^[85]
• Citizens United Political Victory Fund^[80]
• Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with LaRose)^[62]
• Republican Jewish Coalition^[86]
• Senate Conservatives Fund^[87]
• Turning Point Action PAC^[88]

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

• Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor of Ohio (2019–2025)^[89]

Organizations

• Ohio Republican Party^[90]
• National Republican Senatorial Committee^[91]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Matt Dolan (R)	$11,425,814[c]	$9,089,493	$2,383,077
Bernie Moreno (R)	$9,735,460[d]	$7,338,751	$2,396,709
Frank LaRose (R)	$2,217,016[e]	$1,625,972	$591,043
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Matt Dolan	Frank LaRose	Bernie Moreno	Other	Undecided
Emerson College[92]	March 17–18, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	40%	16%	44%	–
Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University[93]	March 13–15, 2024	818 (RV)	± 3.4%	31%	19%	29%	–	21%
East Carolina University[94]	March 8–11, 2024	<1,298 (LV)	± 4.6%	39%	27%	34%	–
SurveyUSA[95][A]	March 6–11, 2024	533 (LV)	± 3.3%	18%	16%	22%	–	44%
Emerson College[96]	March 7–10, 2024	443 (LV)	± 2.6%	26%	16%	23%	3%	32%
SurveyUSA[97][B]	February 27 – March 3, 2024	568 (LV)	± 4.6%	27%	21%	29%	–	23%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[98][C]	February 25–26, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	19%	21%	31%	–	27%
Emerson College[99]	January 23–25, 2024	1844 (RV)	± 2.3%	15%	21%	22%	–	42%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[100][D]	December 12–14, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	16%	18%	22%	–	44%
SurveyUSA[101][B]	December 8–12, 2023	573 (LV)	± 4.6%	18%	33%	12%	1%[f]	35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[102][C]	December 3–5, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	18%	19%	23%	–	40%
co/efficient (R)[103][C]	November 18–20, 2023	950 (LV)	± 3.18%	13%	14%	15%	–	58%
Emerson College/WJW-TV[104]	November 10–13, 2023	468 (LV)	± 4.5%	15%	18%	10%	32%[g]	25%
Data for Progress (D)[105]	October 31 – November 2, 2023	294 (LV)	± 6.0%	20%	30%	7%	0%[h]	43%
Ohio Northern University[34]	October 16–19, 2023	269 (LV)[i]	± 8.2%	13%	30%	7%	2%	49%
Ohio Northern University[35]	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	18%	32%	7%	1%	43%
Suffolk/USA Today[106]	July 9–12, 2023	190 (RV)	–	14%	19%	9%	–	57%
East Carolina University[107]	June 21–24, 2023	405 (RV)	± 4.0%	14%	17%	7%	4%	58%
Causeway Solutions (R)[108][E]	May 19–27, 2023	526 (RV)	± 2.5%	11%	24%	6%	17%	42%

Results

Results by county:

  Moreno

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

Vote share of Bernie Moreno (left), Matt Dolan (center), Frank LaRose (right) by counties

Republican primary results^[36]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Bernie Moreno	557,626	50.48%
	Republican	Matt Dolan	363,013	32.86%
	Republican	Frank LaRose	184,111	16.67%
Total votes			1,104,750	100.0%

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Don Kissick, auto worker and nominee for Ohio's 5th congressional district in 2018^[109]

Write-in candidates

Declared

• Stephen Faris, electrical engineer^[110]
• David Allen Pastorius^[110]
• Nathan Russell^[110]
• Tariq Shabazz (Green Party), U.S. Navy veteran and perennial candidate^[110][111]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[112]	Tossup	September 25, 2024
Inside Elections[113]	Tossup	September 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[114]	Lean R (flip)	November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[115]	Tossup	September 27, 2024
Elections Daily[116]	Lean D	November 4, 2024
CNalysis[117]	Tilt D	November 4, 2024
RealClearPolitics[118]	Tossup	September 28, 2024
Split Ticket[119]	Tossup	October 23, 2024
538[120]	Tossup	October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Sherrod Brown (D)

Governors

• Andy Beshear, Kentucky (2019–present)^[121]
• Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan (2019–present)^[122]
• Bob Taft, Ohio (1999–2007) (Republican)^[123]

Individuals

• Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer^[124]

Organizations

• Giffords^[125]
• People for the American Way^[126]

Labor unions

• Actors' Equity Association^[127]
• Communications Workers of America^[128]
• Ohio Federation of Teachers^[129]
• United Auto Workers of America^[130]
• United Mine Workers of America^[131]

Bernie Moreno (R)

Governors

• Mike DeWine, Ohio (2019–present)^[132]

Federal officials

• John Bolton, former National Security Advisor (2018–2019) and former Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)^[133]

U.S. Senators

• John Thune, Senate Minority Whip (2021–2025) from South Dakota (2005–present)^[134]

Statewide officials

• Keith Faber, Ohio State Auditor (2019–present)^[135]
• Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor of Ohio (2019–2025)^[135]
• Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)^[135]
• Robert Sprague, Ohio State Treasurer (2019–present)^[135]

Organizations

• Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America^[136]
• College Republicans of America ^[137]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Sherrod Brown (D)	$91,399,138	$88,358,633	$4,411,749
Bernie Moreno (R)	$24,237,971[j]	$21,447,672	$2,636,429
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Sherrod Brown (D)	Bernie Moreno (R)	Undecided [k]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight[138]	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	47.1%	47.8%	5.1%	Moreno +0.7
RealClearPolitics[139]	October 23 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	46.3%	48.0%	5.7%	Moreno +1.7%
270toWin[140]	October 10 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	47.3%	47.0%	5.7%	Brown +0.3
TheHill/DDHQ[141]	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	46.8%	48.9%	4.3%	Moreno +2.1
Average			46.9%	47.9%	5.2%	Moreno +1.0

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Bernie Moreno (R)	Other	Undecided
AtlasIntel[142]	November 3–4, 2024	1,022 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	49%	3%[l]	3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[143]	November 2–4, 2024	1,095 (LV)	± 2.9%	48%	48%	2%	2%
Emerson College[144][F]	October 30 – November 2, 2024	900 (LV)	± 3.2%	45%	48%	–	6%
				48%[m]	52%	–	–
Morning Consult[145]	October 23 – November 1, 2024	1,254 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	47%	–	7%
Miami University[146]	October 28–30, 2024	857 (RV)	± 5.0%	48%	46%	3%[n]	2%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[147]	October 25–28, 2024	1,127 (LV)	± 2.9%	48%	47%	2%	3%
ActiVote[148]	October 14–28, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	51%	–	–
J.L. Partners (R)[149]	October 22–24, 2024	997 (LV)	± 3.1%	46%	52%	3%	–
University of Akron[150]	September 12 – October 24, 2024	1,241 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	44%	–	10%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[151][G]	October 19–22, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	49%	3%[o]	3%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov[152]	October 10–21, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.6%	47%	45%	1%[p]	7%
ActiVote[153]	September 23 – October 20, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	52%	–	–
Morning Consult[145]	October 6–15, 2024	490 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	47%	1%	6%
The Washington Post[154]	October 3–7, 2024	1,002 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	47%	1%[q]	3%
		1,002 (RV)		48%	47%	1%[r]	4%
Marist College[155]	October 3–7, 2024	1,327 (LV)	± 3.2%	50%	48%	–	2%
		1,511 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	48%	1%[s]	2%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov[156]	September 18–27, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.6%	49%	45%	–	6%
New York Times/Siena College[157]	September 21–26, 2024	687 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%	43%	–	10%
		687 (RV)	± 4.1%	46%	41%	–	13%
ActiVote[158]	August 16 – September 22, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	51%	–	–
RMG Research[159][H]	September 18–20, 2024	781 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	48%	5%[t]	–
Morning Consult[145]	September 9–18, 2024	1,488 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	44%	–	10%
Morning Consult[145]	August 30 – September 8, 2024	1,558 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	43%	–	11%
SoCal Strategies (R)[160][I]	August 31 – September 1, 2024	600 (LV)	–	50%	45%	–	5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[161][J]	August 13–17, 2024	1,267 (LV)	–	47%	42%	–	11%
ActiVote[162]	July 20 – August 12, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	52.5%	47.5%	–	–
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[163][K]	July 23–28, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	42%	1%	11%
Remington Research Group (R)[164][L]	June 29 – July 1, 2024	611 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	44%	–	7%
Marist College[165]	June 3–6, 2024	1,137 (RV)	± 3.6%	50%	45%	1%	4%
National Public Affairs[166]	May 28–29, 2024	801 (LV)	± 3.5%	54%	46%	–	–
	March 19, 2024	Primary elections held
Mainstreet Research/FAU[93]	March 13–15, 2024	818 (RV)	± 3.4%	47%	36%	–	17%
East Carolina University[94]	March 8–11, 2024	1,298 (LV)	± 3.2%	45%	41%	3%	12%
SurveyUSA[95][A]	March 6–11, 2024	533 (LV)	± 3.3%	43%	37%	–	20%
Emerson College[96]	March 7–10, 2024	1,300 (RV)	± 2.6%	39%	34%	6%	21%
Emerson College[99]	January 23–25, 2024	1844 (RV)	± 2.3%	39%	37%	5%	18%
Emerson College[104][M]	November 10–13, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	32%	–	26%
Data for Progress (D)[105]	October 31 – November 2, 2023	597 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	44%	–	9%
Ohio Northern University[34]	October 16–19, 2023	668 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	26%	1%	25%
Emerson College[167]	October 1–3, 2023	438 (RV)	± 4.5%	35%	33%	–	32%
Ohio Northern University[35]	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	45%	28%	0%	27%
Suffolk University[106]	July 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	41%	–	10%
East Carolina University[107]	June 21–24, 2023	805 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	42%	2%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Matt Dolan (R)	Other	Undecided
Mainstreet Research/FAU[93]	March 13–15, 2024	818 (RV)	± 3.4%	45%	41%	–	14%
East Carolina University[94]	March 8–11, 2024	1,298 (LV)	± 3.2%	41%	43%	4%	12%
SurveyUSA[95][A]	March 6–11, 2024	533 (LV)	± 3.3%	42%	39%	–	18%
Emerson College[96]	March 7–10, 2024	1,300 (RV)	± 2.6%	37%	34%	7%	22%
Emerson College[99]	January 23–25, 2024	1844 (RV)	± 2.3%	38%	37%	5%	20%
Emerson/WJW-TV[104]	November 10–13, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	38%	–	22%
Data for Progress (D)[105]	October 31 – November 2, 2023	597 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	46%	–	7%
Ohio Northern University[34]	October 16–19, 2023	668 (RV)	± 3.8%	45%	30%	0%	25%
Emerson College[167]	October 1–3, 2023	438 (RV)	± 4.5%	36%	38%	–	26%
Ohio Northern University[35]	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	45%	33%	0%	22%
Suffolk University[106]	July 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	43%	–	11%
East Carolina University[107]	June 21–24, 2023	805 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	44%	4%	7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Frank LaRose (R)	Other	Undecided
Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University[93]	March 13–15, 2024	818 (RV)	± 3.4%	48%	37%	–	15%
East Carolina University[94]	March 8–11, 2024	1,298 (LV)	± 3.2%	45%	40%	4%	12%
SurveyUSA[95][A]	March 6–11, 2024	533 (LV)	± 3.3%	44%	36%	–	19%
Emerson College[96]	March 7–10, 2024	1,300 (RV)	± 2.6%	39%	33%	7%	21%
Emerson College[99]	January 23–25, 2024	1844 (RV)	± 2.3%	39%	37%	6%	18%
Emerson/WJW-TV[104]	November 10–13, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	36%	–	24%
Data for Progress (D)[105]	October 31 – November 2, 2023	597 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	–	8%
Ohio Northern University[34]	October 16–19, 2023	668 (RV)	± 3.8%	44%	31%	0%	25%
Emerson College[167]	October 1–3, 2023	438 (RV)	± 4.5%	38%	39%	–	23%
Ohio Northern University[35]	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	45%	32%	0%	23%
Suffolk University[106]	July 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%	45%	–	10%
East Carolina University[107]	June 21–24, 2023	805 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	42%	4%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Joel Mutchler (R)	Other	Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[105]	October 31 – November 2, 2023	597 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	43%	-	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Generic Republican	Undecided
Causeway Solutions (R)[108][E]	May 19–27, 2023	1639 (RV)	± 2.5%	39%	37%	24%

Hypothetical polling

Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan

Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose

Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler

Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Ohio^[168]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Bernie Moreno	2,857,383	50.09%	+3.51%
	Democratic	Sherrod Brown (incumbent)	2,650,949	46.47%	−6.93%
	Libertarian	Don Kissick	195,648	3.43%	+3.43%
	Write-in		640	0.01%	-0.01%
Total votes			5,704,620	100.00%
Turnout				69.91%	+15.26
	Republican gain from Democratic

By county

County[169]	Bernie Moreno Republican		Sherrod Brown Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adams	9,325	76.60%	2,447	20.10%	401	3.29%	6,878	56.50%	12,173
Allen	30,208	65.69%	14,120	30.70%	1,660	3.61%	16,088	34.99%	45,988
Ashland	17,894	68.32%	7,280	27.79%	1,019	3.89%	10,614	40.53%	26,193
Ashtabula	24,117	56.50%	16,785	39.33%	1,780	4.17%	7,332	17.17%	42,682
Athens	10,013	39.06%	14,696	57.32%	928	3.62%	−4,683	−18.26%	25,637
Auglaize	19,363	76.02%	5,248	20.60%	861	3.38%	14,115	55.42%	25,472
Belmont	20,146	65.51%	9,476	30.82%	1,129	3.67%	10,670	34.69%	30,751
Brown	15,622	74.46%	4,610	21.97%	748	3.57%	11,012	52.49%	20,980
Butler	104,952	57.91%	69,734	38.48%	6,557	3.62%	35,218	19.43%	181,243
Carroll	9,543	69.87%	3,545	25.95%	571	4.18%	5,998	43.92%	13,659
Champaign	13,917	68.68%	5,547	27.37%	801	3.95%	8,370	41.31%	20,265
Clark	36,611	58.45%	23,630	37.73%	2,393	3.82%	12,981	20.72%	62,634
Clermont	70,592	62.43%	37,825	33.45%	4,649	4.11%	32,767	28.98%	113,066
Clinton	14,513	70.61%	5,154	25.08%	887	4.32%	9,359	45.53%	20,554
Columbiana	31,757	66.72%	13,902	29.21%	1,935	4.07%	17,855	37.51%	47,594
Coshocton	11,011	68.03%	4,457	27.54%	717	4.43%	6,554	40.49%	16,185
Crawford	13,938	69.24%	5,400	26.82%	793	3.94%	8,538	42.42%	20,131
Cuyahoga	170,671	30.00%	384,042	67.49%	14,352	2.52%	−213,371	−37.49%	569,065
Darke	20,615	76.75%	5,359	19.95%	886	3.30%	15,256	56.80%	26,860
Defiance	12,028	64.22%	5,880	31.39%	822	4.39%	6,148	32.83%	18,730
Delaware	65,715	49.41%	63,697	47.89%	3,582	2.69%	2,018	1.52%	132,994
Erie	19,654	50.00%	18,117	46.09%	1,536	3.91%	1,537	3.91%	39,307
Fairfield	47,342	56.45%	33,697	40.18%	2,819	3.36%	13,645	16.27%	83,858
Fayette	8,712	70.30%	3,207	25.88%	474	3.82%	5,505	44.42%	12,393
Franklin	186,441	31.65%	385,850	65.50%	16,790	2.85%	−199,409	−33.85%	589,081
Fulton	14,450	65.44%	6,764	30.63%	868	3.93%	7,686	34.81%	22,082
Gallia	9,316	73.22%	2,912	22.89%	496	3.90%	6,404	50.33%	12,724
Geauga	30,987	56.72%	22,315	40.85%	1,330	2.43%	8,672	15.87%	54,632
Greene	49,477	55.06%	37,327	41.54%	3,052	3.40%	12,150	13.52%	89,856
Guernsey	11,836	68.07%	4,839	27.83%	712	4.10%	6,997	40.24%	17,387
Hamilton	158,523	38.88%	235,825	57.84%	13,394	3.28%	−77,302	−18.96%	407,742
Hancock	23,803	63.44%	12,170	32.44%	1,547	4.12%	11,633	31.00%	37,520
Hardin	8,839	69.10%	3,367	26.32%	585	4.57%	5,472	42.78%	12,791
Harrison	4,891	69.20%	1,857	26.27%	320	4.53%	3,034	42.93%	7,068
Henry	9,685	66.32%	4,356	29.83%	562	3.85%	5,329	36.49%	14,603
Highland	14,884	75.45%	4,152	21.05%	692	3.51%	10,732	54.40%	19,728
Hocking	8,599	64.67%	4,125	31.02%	572	4.30%	4,474	33.65%	13,296
Holmes	9,699	79.52%	2,117	17.36%	381	3.12%	7,582	62.16%	12,197
Huron	17,090	63.69%	8,452	31.50%	1,289	4.80%	8,638	32.19%	26,831
Jackson	10,299	72.95%	3,346	23.70%	472	3.34%	6,953	49.25%	14,117
Jefferson	19,795	64.25%	9,819	31.87%	1,196	3.88%	9,976	32.38%	30,810
Knox	21,363	66.84%	9,537	29.84%	1,061	3.32%	11,826	37.00%	31,961
Lake	64,089	50.76%	58,125	46.04%	4,045	3.20%	5,964	4.72%	126,259
Lawrence	18,077	68.66%	7,192	27.32%	1,060	4.03%	10,885	41.34%	26,329
Licking	55,320	58.66%	35,373	37.51%	3,616	3.83%	19,947	21.15%	94,309
Logan	16,763	71.77%	5,614	24.03%	981	4.20%	11,149	47.74%	23,358
Lorain	71,759	45.95%	79,307	50.78%	5,115	3.28%	−7,548	−4.83%	156,181
Lucas	72,544	38.38%	107,783	57.02%	8,703	4.60%	−35,239	−18.64%	189,030
Madison	13,347	65.24%	6,322	30.90%	789	3.86%	7,025	34.34%	20,458
Mahoning	54,067	48.49%	53,847	48.29%	3,585	3.22%	220	0.20%	111,499
Marion	16,763	62.59%	8,824	32.95%	1,195	4.46%	7,939	29.64%	26,782
Medina	58,915	55.92%	43,173	40.98%	3,262	3.10%	15,742	14.94%	105,350
Meigs	7,385	72.30%	2,456	24.04%	374	3.66%	4,929	48.26%	10,215
Mercer	18,432	78.54%	4,337	18.48%	1,057	4.50%	14,095	60.06%	23,826
Miami	39,225	66.72%	17,525	29.81%	2,039	3.47%	21,700	36.91%	58,789
Monroe	4,715	70.89%	1,725	25.94%	211	3.17%	2,990	44.95%	6,651
Montgomery	112,324	44.58%	130,464	51.78%	9,146	3.63%	−18,140	−7.20%	251,934
Morgan	4,587	69.07%	1,802	27.13%	252	3.79%	2,785	41.94%	6,641
Morrow	13,197	71.20%	4,610	24.87%	727	3.92%	8,587	46.33%	18,534
Muskingum	25,408	65.25%	11,852	30.44%	1,680	4.31%	13,556	34.81%	38,940
Noble	4,555	75.00%	1,316	21.67%	202	3.33%	3,239	53.33%	6,073
Ottawa	13,317	56.19%	9,460	39.92%	921	3.89%	3,857	16.27%	23,698
Paulding	6,678	72.67%	2,056	22.37%	456	4.96%	4,622	50.30%	9,190
Perry	11,626	69.32%	4,492	26.78%	654	3.90%	7,134	42.54%	16,772
Pickaway	19,613	67.51%	8,452	29.09%	986	3.39%	11,161	38.42%	29,051
Pike	8,264	68.62%	3,364	27.93%	415	3.45%	4,900	40.69%	12,043
Portage	42,163	51.27%	37,082	45.09%	3,000	3.65%	5,081	6.18%	82,245
Preble	15,806	73.41%	4,940	22.94%	785	3.65%	10,866	50.47%	21,531
Putnam	15,582	79.08%	3,573	18.13%	549	2.79%	12,009	60.95%	19,704
Richland	37,368	64.71%	18,488	32.02%	1,891	3.27%	18,880	32.69%	57,747
Ross	20,402	62.42%	11,125	34.03%	1,160	3.55%	9,277	28.39%	32,687
Sandusky	16,951	57.94%	10,782	36.86%	1,522	5.20%	6,169	21.08%	29,255
Scioto	20,509	67.20%	8,935	29.28%	1,075	3.52%	11,574	37.92%	30,519
Seneca	15,420	61.45%	8,509	33.91%	1,163	4.63%	6,911	27.54%	25,092
Shelby	19,275	76.88%	4,927	19.65%	868	3.46%	14,348	57.23%	25,070
Stark	99,365	54.67%	75,434	41.51%	6,941	3.82%	23,931	13.16%	181,740
Summit	111,573	41.13%	150,517	55.49%	9,174	3.38%	−38,944	−14.36%	271,264
Trumbull	48,755	50.97%	43,178	45.14%	3,722	3.89%	5,577	5.83%	95,655
Tuscarawas	27,395	64.25%	13,501	31.67%	1,740	4.08%	13,894	32.58%	42,636
Union	21,926	59.32%	13,719	37.12%	1,315	3.56%	8,207	22.20%	36,960
Van Wert	10,826	74.12%	3,204	21.93%	577	3.95%	7,622	52.19%	14,607
Vinton	4,018	71.76%	1,360	24.29%	221	3.95%	2,658	47.47%	5,599
Warren	84,796	61.06%	49,350	35.54%	4,726	3.40%	35,446	25.52%	138,872
Washington	19,865	65.78%	9,275	30.71%	1,061	3.51%	10,590	35.07%	30,201
Wayne	33,532	63.57%	17,313	32.82%	1,900	3.60%	16,219	30.75%	52,745
Williams	12,036	66.80%	5,043	27.99%	940	5.22%	6,993	38.81%	18,019
Wood	32,801	49.10%	31,242	46.77%	2,758	4.13%	1,559	2.33%	66,801
Wyandot	7,813	69.29%	2,996	26.57%	467	4.14%	4,817	42.72%	11,276
Totals	2,857,383	50.09%	2,650,949	46.47%	196,288	3.44%	206,434	3.62%	5,704,620

Shift by county

Trend by county

Legend

•   Republican — >15%
•   Republican — +12.5−15%
•   Republican — +10−12.5%
•   Republican — +7.5−10%
•   Republican — +5−7.5%
•   Republican — +2.5−5%
•   Republican — +0−2.5%
•   Democratic — +0−2.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5−5%
•   Democratic — +5−7.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +10−12.5%
•   Democratic — +12.5−15%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Ashtabula (largest city: Ashtabula)
• Erie (largest city: Sandusky)
• Lake (largest city: Mentor)
• Mahoning (largest city: Youngstown)
• Ottawa (largest city: Port Clinton)
• Portage (largest city: Kent)
• Trumbull (largest city: Warren)
• Wood (largest city: Bowling Green)

By congressional district

Moreno won 9 of 15 congressional districts, with the remaining six going to Brown, including one that elected a Republican.^[170]

District	Brown	Moreno	Representative
1st	53.6%	43.1%	Greg Landsman
2nd	28.8%	67.4%	Brad Wenstrup (118th Congress)
			David Taylor (119th Congress)
3rd	71.1%	26.4%	Joyce Beatty
4th	34.0%	62.5%	Jim Jordan
5th	38.2%	58.1%	Bob Latta
6th	36.6%	59.7%	Michael Rulli
7th	47.7%	49.4%	Max Miller
8th	39.7%	56.8%	Warren Davidson
9th	48.1%	47.4%	Marcy Kaptur
10th	48.7%	47.7%	Mike Turner
11th	78.4%	19.2%	Shontel Brown
12th	36.1%	60.3%	Troy Balderson
13th	52.1%	44.5%	Emilia Sykes
14th	44.2%	52.3%	David Joyce
15th	47.5%	49.1%	Mike Carey

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary
3. $9,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Dolan
4. $4,200,000 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
5. $250,000 of this total was self-funded by LaRose
6. Joel Mutchler with 1%
7. "Someone else" with 29%; Joel Mutchler with 3%
8. Joel Mutchler with 0%
9. A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary
10. $4,500,838 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
11. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
12. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
13. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
14. Kissick (L) with 3%;"Other" with <1%
15. Kissick (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
16. "Did not vote for Senator" with 1%
17. "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%
18. "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%
19. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
20. "Won't Vote" with 5%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy
2. Poll sponsored by The Center for Election Science
3. Poll sponsored by Moreno's campaign
4. Poll sponsored by Buckeye Values PAC, which supports Moreno
5. Poll sponsored by Leadership for Ohio Fund, which supports LaRose
6. Poll sponsored by The Hill
7. Poll sponsored by Senate Opportunity Fund, a super PAC that primarily supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate races
8. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
9. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports Republican candidates
10. Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA, a conservative group
11. Poll sponsored by AARP
12. Poll sponsored by American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
13. Poll sponsored by WGW-TV