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The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein won his first term in office, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson to succeed Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.
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| Turnout | 73.73%  1.62% | ||||||||||||||||
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Stein: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Robinson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.[1] Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.
The race was initially competitive, with Stein holding a narrow lead in part due to Robinson's history of controversial statements. After Robinson was linked to disturbing comments on a pornographic website less than two months before the election, Stein gained a significant polling advantage that held for the remainder of the race. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8%, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina since Jim Hunt in 1980.
Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He will also be the first Jewish governor of the state.[2] Analysts have credited Stein's large margin of victory with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections.[3][4] Robinson's 40.08% is the worst showing for any Republican nominee since 1980.
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A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.[5][6]
Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[6][7]
The Democratic nominee is Josh Stein, the current state attorney general. The Republican nominee is Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor.[8]
The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson had become embroiled in numerous controversies since becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls.[9]
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Candidates
Nominee
- Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General (2017–present)[8]
Eliminated in primary
- Chrelle Booker, Tryon city councilor (2019–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[10]
- Gary Foxx, former Princeville police chief[11]
- Michael R. Morgan, former North Carolina Supreme Court justice (2016–2023)[12]
- Marcus Williams, attorney and perennial candidate[13]
Declined
- Sydney Batch, state senator from the 17th district (2021–present)[14] (endorsed Stein)[8]
- Jeff Jackson, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–present)[14] (endorsed Stein, ran for Attorney General)[15]
- Natalie Murdock, state senator from the 20th district (2020–present)[14] (endorsed Stein)[8]
- Robert T. Reives II, Minority Leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present) from the 54th district (2014–present)[14] (endorsed Stein)[16]
Endorsements
Josh Stein
U.S. representatives
- G. K. Butterfield, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (2004–2022)[17]
- Eva Clayton, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (1992–2003)[17]
- Valerie Foushee, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 4th congressional district (2023–present)[18]
- Jeff Jackson, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–present)[15]
- Kathy Manning, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2021–present)[19]
- Wiley Nickel, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 13th congressional district (2023–present)[15]
- Deborah Ross, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 2nd congressional district (2021–present)[20]
Statewide officials
- Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina (2017–present)[21]
- Jim Hunt, former Governor of North Carolina (1977–1985, 1993–2001)[16]
- Burley Mitchell, former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court (1995–1999)[22]
State legislators
- Robert Reives, minority leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present from the 54th district (2014–present)[16]
Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[23]
Labor unions
- North Carolina AFL-CIO[24]
- North Carolina Association of Educators[25]
Organizations
- End Citizens United[26]
- NextGen America PAC[23]
- North Carolina League of Conservation Voters[27]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[28]
- Sierra Club[29]
Newspapers
- The Charlotte Observer[30] (Democratic primary only)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Chrelle Booker |
Gary Foxx |
Michael Morgan |
Josh Stein |
Marcus Williams |
Other | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University[31] | February 16–23, 2024 | 322 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 57% | 9% | – | – | ||||||
| Change Research (D)[32][A] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | – | – | 8% | 49% | – | 4%[b] | 39% | ||||||
| East Carolina University[33] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 57% | 3% | – | 29% | ||||||
| Meredith College[34] | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 31% | 2% | 4% | 51% | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[35] | December 15–16, 2023 | 556 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 56% | 4% | – | 32% | ||||||
| Foxx joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Williams joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Booker joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Meredith College[36] | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 38% | – | 9% | 42% | ||||||
| Meredith College[37] | September 16–19, 2023 | 308 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 33% | – | 10% | 46% | ||||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mandy Cohen |
Jeff Jackson |
Josh Stein |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 9% | 39% |
Hypothetical polling
Results
Stein
- Stein—80–90%
- Stein—70–80%
- Stein—60–70%
- Stein—50–60%
- Stein—40–50%
- Stein—30–40%
Morgan
- Morgan—50–60%
- Morgan—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Stein | 479,026 | 69.60% | |
| Democratic | Michael R. Morgan | 98,627 | 14.33% | |
| Democratic | Chrelle Booker | 46,045 | 6.69% | |
| Democratic | Marcus Williams | 39,257 | 5.70% | |
| Democratic | Gary Foxx | 25,283 | 3.67% | |
| Total votes | 688,238 | 100.0% | ||
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Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Robinson, Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina (2021–present)[40]
Eliminated in primary
- Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–present)[41]
- Bill Graham, attorney and candidate for governor in 2008[42]
Withdrawn
- Jesse Thomas, retired healthcare executive (ran for Secretary of State)[43]
- Mark Walker, former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2015–2021) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)[44]
- Andy Wells, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020[45]
Declined
- Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present)[14][46] (endorsed Graham)[47]
Endorsements
Dale Folwell
Council of State officials
- James G. Martin, former Governor of North Carolina (1985–1993)[48]
Newspapers
- The Charlotte Observer[30] (Republican primary only)
Bill Graham
U.S. senators
- Thom Tillis, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2015–present)[47]
Mark Robinson
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, former President of the United States (2017–2021)[49]
U.S. senators
- Ted Budd, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2023–present)[50]
U.S. representatives
- Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 8th congressional district (2019–present)[40]
State senators
- Phil Berger, President pro tempore of the North Carolina Senate (2011–present) from the 26th district (2001–present)[51]
- Danny Britt, state senator from the 24th district (2017–present)[40]
State representatives
- Neal Jackson, state representative from the 78th district (2023–present)[51]
- Charlie Miller, state representative from the 19th district (2021–present)[40]
Organizations
Newspapers
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||
| Dale Folwell | Mark Walker | Jesse Thomas | |||||
| 1 | September 12, 2023 | Wake County Republican Party |
Bill LuMaye | YouTube | P | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Dale Folwell |
Bill Graham |
Mark Robinson |
Jesse Thomas |
Mark Walker |
Andy Wells |
Other | Undecided | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University[31] | February 16–23, 2024 | 394 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 17% | 33% | 51% | 9% | – | – | – | – | |||||
| Capen Analytics[55] | February 21, 2024 | 12,580 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 29% | 18% | 53% | – | – | – | – | – | |||||
| Change Research (D)[32][A] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 9% | 9% | 57% | – | – | – | 3%[c] | 22% | |||||
| East Carolina University[33] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 7% | 13% | 53% | – | – | – | – | 27% | |||||
| Meredith College[34] | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 4% | 9% | 34% | – | – | – | 10% | 42% | |||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[56] | January 5–6, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 7% | 15% | 55% | – | – | – | – | 24% | |||||
| Wells withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| East Carolina University[57] | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 445 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 7% | 8% | 34% | – | – | 3% | – | 49% | |||||
| Thomas withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Meredith College[36] | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | 5% | 41% | 2% | – | 1% | 6% | 42% | |||||
| Walker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Graham joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Cygnal[58][B] | October 8–9, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 5% | – | 49% | 1% | 4% | 1% | – | 41% | |||||
| Meredith College[37] | September 16–19, 2023 | 350 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | – | 34% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 44% | |||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Dale Folwell |
Pat McCrory |
Mark Robinson |
Thom Tillis |
Steve Troxler |
Mark Walker |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Diagnostics[59] | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 4% | - | 44% | - | - | 7% | 7% | 38% |
| SurveyUSA[60][B] | April 25–29, 2023 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 4% | - | 43% | - | 9% | 8% | - | 37% |
| The Differentiators (R)[61] | December 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | - | 60% | - | - | - | - | 34% |
| - | 21% | 60% | - | - | - | - | 19% | ||||
| - | - | 58% | - | - | 8% | - | 34% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | - | 54% | 20% | - | - | 5% | 17% |
Hypothetical polling
Results
Robinson
- Robinson—80–90%
- Robinson—70–80%
- Robinson—60–70%
- Robinson—50–60%
- Robinson—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mark Robinson | 666,504 | 64.83% | |
| Republican | Dale Folwell | 196,955 | 19.16% | |
| Republican | Bill Graham | 164,572 | 16.01% | |
| Total votes | 1,028,031 | 100.0% | ||
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Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Mike Ross, treasurer of the North Carolina Libertarian Party[62]
Eliminated in primary
Results
Ross
- Ross—100%
- Ross—80–90%
- Ross—70–80%
- Ross—60–70%
- Ross—50–60%
Bray
- Bray—100%
- Bray—70–80%
- Bray—60–70%
- Bray—50–60%
Tie
- Tie—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Mike Ross | 2,910 | 59.45% | |
| Libertarian | Shannon Bray | 1,985 | 40.55% | |
| Total votes | 4,895 | 100.0% | ||
Green Party
Nominee
- Wayne Turner, co-chair of the North Carolina Green Party[11]
Constitution Party
Nominee
- Vinny Smith, treasurer of the North Carolina Constitution Party[64]
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Campaign
Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson has received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson has also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial.[65] Robinson has also received criticism from some moderate Republicans, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson.[66] On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.[67]
Calls for Robinson to drop out
On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012.[68][69] Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery.[70] The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance.[71] This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race.[72] His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside".[69] Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don't have any facts".[73] That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married.[74] The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.[75]
Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic.[76][9][77][78]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[77] | Likely D | September 20, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[79] | Likely D | September 26, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] | Likely D | September 19, 2024 |
| RCP[81] | Likely D | September 28, 2024 |
| Fox News[82] | Likely D | September 25, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[83] | Safe D | September 19, 2024 |
| CNalysis[78] | Solid D | October 15, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[84] | Safe D | October 19, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Josh Stein (D)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–present)[85]
U.S. representatives
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[86]
Statewide officials
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[87]
- Wes Moore, Governor of Maryland (2023–present)[88]
- Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)[89]
State senators
- Jim Davis, former state senator from the 50th district (2011–2021) (Republican)[90]
- Richard Stevens, former state senator from the 17th district (2007–2012) (Republican)[90]
State representatives
- Chuck McGrady, former state representative from the 117th district (2011–2020) (Republican)[90]
- Charles Neely, former state representative from the 61st district (1995–1999) (Republican)[90]
- Garland Pierce, state representative from the 48th district (2005–present)[91]
Organizations
Individuals
- Martin Luther King III, activist[94]
Mark Robinson (R)
Statewide officials
Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia (2019–present)[95]Bill Lee, Governor of Tennessee (2019–present)[96]Henry McMaster, Governor of South Carolina (2017–present)[97]Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[98]
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials
- Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–present) (Republican)[101]
- Pat McCrory, former Governor of North Carolina (2013–2017) (Republican)[102]
U.S. senators
- Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present) (Republican)[102]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 19, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Josh Stein (D) | $77,521,905 | $76,601,833 | $1,208,360 |
| Mark Robinson (R) | $19,852,871 | $19,209,887 | $680,641 |
| Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections[103] | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Josh Stein (D) |
Mark Robinson (R) |
Undecided [d] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[104] | October 16 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 53.1% | 38.8% | 8.1% | Stein +14.3% |
| 270ToWin[105] | October 24 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 53.1% | 38.0% | 8.9% | Stein +15.1% |
| The Hill/DDHQ[106] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 53.4% | 38.8% | 7.8% | Stein +14.6% |
| Average | 53.2% | 38.5% | 8.2% | Stein +14.7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Mark Robinson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[107] | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 38% | 4%[e] | 4% |
| AtlasIntel[108] | November 1–2, 2024 | 1,310 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 41% | 4%[e] | 3% |
| Emerson College[109][C] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 40% | 4% | 4% |
| NYT/Siena College[110] | October 28 – November 2, 2024 | 1,010 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 56% | 38% | – | 5% |
| 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 56% | 36% | – | 7% | ||
| Morning Consult[111] | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 1,056 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 36% | – | 12% |
| ActiVote[112] | October 17–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – | – |
| AtlasIntel[113] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,373 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 42% | 4%[e] | 2% |
| AtlasIntel[114] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,665 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 39% | 4%[e] | 4% |
| East Carolina University[115] | October 24–29, 2024 | 1,250 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 40% | 5%[f] | – |
| Fox News[116] | October 24–28, 2024 | 872 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 41% | – | 2% |
| 1,113 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 59% | 38% | 1% | 2% | ||
| CNN/SSRS[117] | October 23–28, 2024 | 750 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 53% | 37% | 10%[g] | 1% |
| SurveyUSA[118][D] | October 23–26, 2024 | 853 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 37% | 1% | 10% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov[119] | October 16–23, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 36% | 3%[h] | 12% |
| Emerson College[120] | October 21–22, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 39% | 4%[i] | 6% |
| Marist College[121] | October 17–22, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 55% | 41% | 3%[j] | 2% |
| 1,410 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 40% | 3%[j] | 2% | ||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[122][E] | October 20–21, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[123][F] | October 17–20, 2024 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 34% | – | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124][G] | October 16–18, 2024 | 843 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 37% | 6%[k] | 10% |
| AtlasIntel[125] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,674 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 54% | 39% | 3%[l] | 4% |
| Elon University[126] | October 10–17, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.99% | 52% | 31% | 7%[m] | 10% |
| Morning Consult[127] | October 6–15, 2024 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 32% | 4% | 10% |
| Cygnal (R)[128][H] | October 12–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 36% | 4%[n] | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[129][G] | October 12–14, 2024 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 38% | 8%[o] | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[130] | October 10–14, 2024 | 1,031 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 42% | 2%[p] | 2% |
| 52% | 40% | 5%[q] | 2% | ||||
| Emerson College[131][I] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 34% | 5%[r] | 11% |
| ActiVote[132] | September 5 – October 5, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56.5% | 43.5% | – | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[133][G] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 36% | 4%[s] | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University[134] | September 25–29, 2024 | 953 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 41% | 2%[t] | 4% |
| 52% | 39% | 6%[u] | 3% | ||||
| The Washington Post[135] | September 25–29, 2024 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 38% | 2%[v] | 6% |
| 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 38% | 2%[w] | 7% | ||
| High Point University[136] | September 20–29, 2024 | 589 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 34% | 3% | 11% |
| 814 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 32% | 3% | 14% | ||
| Emerson College[137][J] | September 27–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 33% | 4%[x] | 12% |
| RMG Research[138][K] | September 25–27, 2024 | 780 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 38% | 5%[y] | 8% |
| East Carolina University[139] | September 23–26, 2024 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 33% | 5%[z] | 13% |
| AtlasIntel[140] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,173 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 38% | 3%[aa] | 5% |
| CNN/SSRS[141] | September 20–25, 2024 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 36% | 11%[ab] | – |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[142][L] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 53% | 33% | 7%[ac] | 8% |
| 59% | 35% | – | 6% | ||||
| Fox News[143] | September 20–24, 2024 | 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 41% | 1%[ad] | 3% |
| 991 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 40% | 2%[ae] | 3% | ||
| Marist College[144] | September 19–24, 2024 | 1,507 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 42% | 1%[af] | 3% |
| 1,348 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 54% | 43% | 1%[af] | 2% | ||
| NYT/Siena College[145] | September 17–21, 2024 | 682 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 37% | – | 16% |
| 682 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 36% | – | 17% | ||
| Meredith College[146] | September 18–20, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 40% | 5%[ag] | 9% |
| Victory Insights (R)[147] | September 16–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Emerson College[148][I] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 2%[ah] | 10% |
| Morning Consult[111] | September 11–18, 2024 | 1,314 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 50% | 37% | 1% | 12% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/ Impact Research (D)[149][M] |
September 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Cygnal (R)[150][H] | September 15–16, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | 2%[ai] | 13% |
| Elon University[151] | September 4–13, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.74% | 49% | 35% | 3% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[152][G] | September 6–9, 2024 | 495 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 33% | 3%[aj] | 23% |
| Quinnipiac University[153] | September 4–8, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 54% | 42% | 1%[ak] | 4% |
| 51% | 41% | 5%[al] | 4% | ||||
| Morning Consult[154] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,369 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 2%[am] | 11% |
| SurveyUSA[155][D] | September 4–7, 2024 | 676 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 37% | – | 12% |
| Florida Atlantic University[156] | September 5–6, 2024 | 692 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 38% | – | 14% |
| 619 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% | ||
| Emerson College[157][I] | August 25–28, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 3%[an] | 10% |
| East Carolina University[158] | August 25–28, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 1%[ao] | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[159][G] | August 25–28, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 44% | 40% | 4%[ap] | 13% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[160][E] | August 26–27, 2024 | 612 (LV) | – | 47% | 37% | – | 16% |
| Fox News[161] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 43% | 2%[aq] | 1% |
| ActiVote[162] | July 26 – August 26, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
| SurveyUSA[163][F] | August 19–21, 2024 | 1,053 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
| 941 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[164][G] | August 12–15, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 39% | 3%[ar] | 13% |
| NYT/Siena College[165] | August 9–14, 2024 | 655 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 38% | – | 14% |
| 655 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 39% | – | 12% | ||
| YouGov (D)[166][A] | August 5–9, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 36% | 6%[as] | 13% |
| Cygnal (R)[167] | August 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 38% | 4%[at] | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[168] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 714 (LV) | – | 43% | 38% | 3%[au] | 16% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[169] | July 22–24, 2024 | 586 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 5%[av] | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[170][N] | July 19–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | – | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[171][G] | July 16–18, 2024 | 461 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 36% | 4%[aw] | 23% |
| Expedition Strategies[172][O] | June 24 – July 8, 2024 | 284 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | – | 11% |
| Spry Strategies[173] | June 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 43% | – | 18% |
| East Carolina University[174] | May 31 – June 3, 2024 | 1,332 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[175][P] | May 29 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | – | 14% |
| Change Research (D)[176][A] | May 13–18, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| High Point University[177] | May 2–9, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 34% | 39% | – | 27% |
| 1,002 (A) | ± 3.2% | 30% | 35% | – | 35% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[178][Q] | May 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 39% | 5%[ax] | 17% |
| Emerson College[179] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 5%[ay] | 12% |
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[180][R] | April 25–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 37% | 6%[az] | 13% |
| Meredith College[181] | April 11–17, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 36% | – | 20% |
| Cygnal (R)[182][B] | April 7–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 40% | – | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University[183] | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 52% | 44% | 2%[ba] | 3% |
| 48% | 41% | 7%[bb] | 3% | ||||
| High Point University[184] | March 22–30, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 37% | 34% | – | 29% |
| Marist College[185] | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| SurveyUSA[186][D] | March 3–9, 2024 | 598 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
| Cygnal (R)[187][B] | March 6–7, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 44% | – | 17% |
| Change Research (D)[32][A] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 43% | – | 15% |
| East Carolina University[33] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 41% | – | 14% |
| Meredith College[34] | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 35% | – | 17% |
| East Carolina University[57] | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 44% | – | 16% |
| Meredith College[36] | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 36% | – | 19% |
| Change Research (D)[188][A] | September 1–5, 2023 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 42% | – | 20% |
| Opinion Diagnostics[59] | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 38% | 41% | – | 21% |
| Cygnal (R)[189][B] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | – | 18% |
| Change Research (D)[190][A] | May 5–8, 2023 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[191] | March 2–3, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 44% | – | 14% |
| Differentiator Data (R)[192][S] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[193][T] | May 12–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | – | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Dale Folwell (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina University[33] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| East Carolina University[57] | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Cygnal (R)[189][B] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 39% | 34% | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Bill Graham (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina University[33] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| East Carolina University[57] | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University[31] | February 16–23, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 2%[bc] | 7% |
Hypothetical polling
Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell
Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham
Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Stein | 3,069,499 | 54.90% | +3.38% | |
| Republican | Mark Robinson | 2,241,310 | 40.08% | –6.93% | |
| Libertarian | Mike Ross | 176,392 | 3.15% | +2.05% | |
| Constitution | Vinny Smith | 54,738 | 0.98% | +0.60% | |
| Green | Wayne Turner | 49,612 | 0.89% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 5,591,551 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Voter demographics
| Demographic subgroup | Stein | Robinson | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 96 | 2 | 21 |
| Moderates | 71 | 23 | 40 |
| Conservatives | 15 | 80 | 39 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 96 | 2 | 32 |
| Republicans | 13 | 83 | 34 |
| Independents | 58 | 35 | 35 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 48 | 47 | 48 |
| Women | 61 | 34 | 52 |
| Age | |||
| 18–24 years old | 59 | 30 | 9 |
| 25–29 years old | 63 | 32 | 5 |
| 30–39 years old | 59 | 38 | 15 |
| 40–49 years old | 58 | 36 | 16 |
| 50–64 years old | 49 | 47 | 29 |
| 65 and older | 54 | 42 | 25 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 46 | 49 | 69 |
| Black | 85 | 8 | 19 |
| Latino | 53 | 39 | 8 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Gender by race | |||
| White men | 42 | 55 | 34 |
| White women | 51 | 44 | 36 |
| Black men | 75 | 13 | 8 |
| Black women | 93 | 4 | 11 |
| Latino men | 39 | 51 | 4 |
| Latino women | 67 | 26 | 4 |
| Other racial/ethnic groups | 55 | 41 | 4 |
| Education | |||
| Never attended college | 42 | 50 | 16 |
| Some college education | 54 | 42 | 25 |
| Associate degree | 43 | 52 | 17 |
| Bachelor's degree degree | 64 | 33 | 25 |
| Postgraduate | 69 | 26 | 16 |
| Education by race | |||
| White college graduates | 62 | 34 | 31 |
| White no college degree | 34 | 62 | 38 |
| Non-white college graduates | 76 | 21 | 10 |
| Non-white no college degree | 72 | 19 | 20 |
| Education by gender/race | |||
| White women with college degrees | 67 | 28 | 16 |
| White women without college degrees | 38 | 58 | 20 |
| White men with college degrees | 57 | 40 | 15 |
| White men without college degrees | 29 | 67 | 19 |
| Non-white | 74 | 20 | 31 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 74 | 20 | 28 |
| Suburban | 48 | 47 | 53 |
| Rural | 45 | 49 | 20 |
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Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
- Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
- Poll sponsored by High Point University
- Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
- Poll sponsored by The Hill
- Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
- Poll sponsored by AARP
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