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The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and Democratic former state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries.[1]
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| Turnout | 77.4%  | ||||||||||||||||
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   Tillis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Cunningham: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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![](#/media/File:James_"Cal"_Cunningham_(cropped_2).jpg)
Cunningham led Tillis in the polls throughout much of the campaign.[2]
In early October 2020, it was reported that Cunningham had exchanged sexually suggestive messages with a married woman who was not his wife. Cunningham confirmed the texts were authentic and apologized for his behavior.[3][4] The woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020.[5][6]
Incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis was re-elected to a second term. Tillis outperformed pre-election polling to win a narrow victory, successfully breaking the "one-term curse" that existed with this particular Senate seat for over twenty years; as no incumbent had been re-elected to this seat since 1996.[7][8][9] On November 10, 2020, a week after Election Day, Cunningham called Tillis to concede the race.[10] Tillis won by a margin of 1.8% over Cunningham, slightly larger than his 1.5% victory in 2014.[11][12] Tillis received a smaller vote share than Donald Trump's 49.93%, but slightly overperformed his margin of victory in North Carolina.
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Candidates
Nominee
- Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. senator[13]
Eliminated in primary
- Larry Holmquist, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[14]
- Sharon Hudson, activist[14]
- Paul Wright, former North Carolina Superior Court judge, perennial candidate, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[14]
Withdrawn
- Sandy Smith, farm owner[15] (running for U.S. House in NC-01)
- Garland Tucker, former CEO and chairman of Triangle Capital[16]
Declined
- Ted Budd, incumbent U.S. representative for North Carolina's 13th congressional district[17]
- Mark Meadows, former U.S. representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district[18]
- Mark Walker, incumbent U.S. representative for North Carolina's 6th congressional district[19]
Endorsements
Thom Tillis
U.S. presidents
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States[20]
U.S. executive branch officials
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sandy Smith |
Thom Tillis |
Garland Tucker |
Mark Walker |
Paul Wright |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University[23] | February 21–28, 2020 | 247 (LV) | – | – | 69% | – | – | 8% | 8%[b] | 16% |
| 444 (RV) | – | – | 58% | – | – | 7% | 10%[c] | 26% | ||
| Meredith College[24] | February 16–24, 2020 | 353 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | 53% | – | – | 5% | 6%[d] | 36% |
| SurveyUSA[25] | February 13–16, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 59% | – | – | 3% | 8%[e] | 29% |
| High Point University[26] | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | – | 62% | – | – | 7% | 5%[f] | 27% |
| 400 (RV) | – | – | 52% | – | – | 6% | 5%[g] | 38% | ||
| Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy | ||||||||||
| Walker announces he will not run[27] | ||||||||||
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[28] | December 2–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 11%[h] | 63% | – | – | – | – | 25% |
| Tucker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||
| FOX News[29] | November 10–13, 2019 | 574 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | 54% | 11% | – | – | 5%[i] | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[30] | August 19–20, 2019 | 564 (V) | – | –[j] | 38% | 31% | – | – | – | 31% |
| Diversified Research (R)[31][32][A] | July 8–9, 2019 | 500 (V) | – | – | 40% | 30% | – | – | – | 30% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[33][B] | May 19–21, 2019 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 2%[k] | 40% | 11% | 17% | – | – | 30% |
| 2%[l] | 18% | 8% | 56% | – | – | 16% | ||||
| Tucker announces his candidacy[34] | ||||||||||
| Diversified Research (R)[31][32][A] | Months before May, 2019 | –[m] | – | – | 63% | 7% | – | – | – | 30% |
Hypothetical polling
with only Thom Tillis and Mark Walker
with Thom Tillis and Generic Republican
Results
Tillis
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | 608,943 | 78.08% | |
| Republican | Paul Wright | 58,908 | 7.55% | |
| Republican | Larry Holmquist | 57,356 | 7.35% | |
| Republican | Sharon Y. Hudson | 54,651 | 7.01% | |
| Total votes | 779,858 | 100.00% | ||
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Candidates
Nominee
- Cal Cunningham, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[35]
Eliminated in primary
- Trevor Fuller, Mecklenburg County commissioner[36]
- Atul Goel, physician and former United States Air Force officer[37]
- Erica D. Smith, state senator[38]
- Steve Swenson[37]
Withdrawn
- Katherine Bell-Moore[39]
- Eva F. Lee, attorney[40] (running for North Carolina Commissioner of Labor)[41]
- Eric L. Mansfield, former state senator[42]
- Steve Williams[39]
Declined
- Janet Cowell, former North Carolina State Treasurer[43] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Anthony Foxx, former U.S. Secretary of Transportation and former mayor of Charlotte[43] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Rachel Hunt, state representative[43]
- Vi Lyles, mayor of Charlotte[44]
- Dan McCready, former U.S. Marine, businessman, and nominee for North Carolina's 9th congressional district in 2018 and 2019 special election[43]
- Deborah K. Ross, former state representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016[45] (running for North Carolina's 2nd congressional district)
- Thomas W. Ross, former president of the University of North Carolina system[46]
- Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General[47] (running for reelection)
- Brian Turner, state representative[43]
Endorsements
Cal Cunningham
Federal officials
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator (OH)[48]
- Bob Casey Jr., U.S. senator (PA)[49]
- Kay Hagan, former U.S. senator (NC) (2009–2015)[50] (deceased)
- Tim Kaine, U.S. senator (VA)[51]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (MN)[52]
State officials
- Howard Nathaniel Lee, former North Carolina State Senator and former mayor of Chapel Hill[50]
Local officials
- Harvey Gantt, former mayor of Charlotte and Democratic nominee in 1990 and 1996 U.S. Senate elections[53]
Organizations
- Brady Campaign[54]
- Council for a Livable World[55]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[56]
- J Street PAC[57]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[58]
- Replacements, Ltd. PAC[59]
Newspapers
- The Charlotte Observer/The News & Observer[60]
- The Charlotte Post[61]
- Indy Week (also endorsed Erica D. Smith)[62]
Individuals
- Alex Hirsch, writer, artist, and animator[63]
Erica D. Smith
Federal officials
- Eva Clayton, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st district and Assistant Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations[64]
State officials
- Linda Coleman, former North Carolina State Representative, 2012 and 2016 Lieutenant Governor Democratic nominee, and 2018 Democratic nominee to North Carolina's 2nd congressional district[64]
- Mickey Michaux, North Carolina State Senator[64]
Newspapers
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Cal Cunningham |
Trevor Fuller |
Atul Goel |
Erica Smith |
Steve Swenson |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University[66] | February 21–28, 2020 | 274 (LV) | – | 50% | 4% | 1% | 24% | 3% | 18% |
| 474 (RV) | – | 42% | 5% | 1% | 24% | 4% | 4% | ||
| Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies[67] | February 26–27, 2020 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 23% | 1% | 28% |
| NBC News/Marist[68] | February 23–27, 2020 | 568 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 3% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | February 23–24, 2020 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 30% |
| Meredith College[24] | February 16–24, 2020 | 429 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 14% | 2% | 36% |
| Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies[70] | February 21–23, 2020 | 553 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 21% | 1% | 29% |
| SurveyUSA[25] | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 17% | 3% | 34% |
| High Point University[71] | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 224 (LV) | – | 37% | 4% | 0% | 11% | 4% | 44% |
| 397 (RV) | – | 29% | 5% | 1% | 10% | 5% | 50% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[72] | February 4–5, 2020 | 604 (LV) | – | 29% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 52% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | January 10–12, 2020 | 509 (LV) | – | 22% | 2% | 3% | 12% | 1% | 60% |
| FOX News[29] | November 10–13, 2019 | 669 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 13% | 10% | – | 18% | – | 49% |
Results
Cunningham
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Smith
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Cal Cunningham | 717,941 | 56.93% | |
| Democratic | Erica D. Smith | 438,969 | 34.81% | |
| Democratic | Trevor M. Fuller | 48,168 | 3.82% | |
| Democratic | Steve Swenson | 33,741 | 2.68% | |
| Democratic | Atul Goel | 22,226 | 1.76% | |
| Total votes | 1,261,045 | 100.00% | ||
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Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Shannon Bray, U.S. Navy veteran, author, and candidate for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in 2019[74]
Constitution Party
Nominee
- Kevin E. Hayes, candidate for the North Carolina House of Representatives in 2012 and 2018[75]
Independence Party
Withdrawn
Independent write-in candidates
Withdrawn
Campaign
During the Democratic primary, a Republican-funded Super PAC spent $3 million on ads attacking Cunningham and promoting left-wing rival Erica D. Smith.[79][80]
Cunningham and Tillis participated in debates on September 13,[81] September 22,[82] and October 1.[83]
In July, Tillis claimed Cunningham had been "silent" on the issue of defunding the police, saying,—"I assume [his] silence is ...consent". In reality, Cunningham had spoken publicly about the issue and written an op-ed a month earlier stating his opposition to defunding the police, advocating police reform instead.[84]
On October 3, the New York Times wrote that the race had fallen into "utter mayhem" within a period of a few hours after Tillis tested positive for COVID-19 and Cunningham admitted to exchanging sexual text messages with a woman who was not his wife, damaging an image that leaned heavily on his character and military service. Days later, the woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020.[5] The Army Reserve started an investigation into Cunningham.[85] The husband of the woman who stated that she had had an affair with Cunningham, himself an Army veteran, called on Cunningham to drop out of the Senate race.[6] Asked repeatedly whether he had had other extramarital affairs, Cunningham declined to answer.[86][87][88][89]
Tillis's diagnosis, which came after an outbreak at a White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, temporarily threw Barrett's confirmation into jeopardy, as two Republican senators had already stated their intention to vote against (though one of them would eventually vote in favor of her confirmation).[90][91]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| 538[92] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[93] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[94] | Tossup | October 30, 2020 |
| DDHQ[95] | Lean D (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[96] | Tilt D (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[97] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[98] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| The Cook Political Report[99] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
| Politico[100] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
Thom Tillis (R)
U.S. presidents
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States[20]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States
U.S. executive branch officials
- Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina[101]
- John Bolton, former United States National Security Advisor[21]
Organizations
- Campaign for Working Families[102]
- Huck PAC[103]
- National Right to Life[104]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[105][102]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[106]
- Susan B. Anthony List[22]
Cal Cunningham (D)
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators, representatives, and federal officials
- Alma Adams, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 12th congressional district[108]
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator (OH)[48]
- G. K. Butterfield, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district[108]
- Bob Casey Jr., U.S. senator (PA)[49]
- Kay Hagan, former U.S. senator (NC) (2009–2015)[50]
- Tim Kaine, U.S. senator (VA)[51]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (MN)[109]
- Seth Moulton, U.S. representative from Massachusetts's 6th congressional district[110]
- David Price, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 4th congressional district[108]
State officials
- Stacey Abrams, former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives and Democratic nominee in 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election[111]
- Linda Coleman, former North Carolina State Representative, 2012 and 2016 Lieutenant Governor Democratic nominee, and 2018 Democratic nominee to North Carolina's 2nd congressional district[112]
- Howard Nathaniel Lee, former North Carolina State Senator and former mayor of Chapel Hill[50]
Local officials
- Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and former 2020 presidential candidate[113][114]
- Harvey Gantt, former mayor of Charlotte and Democratic nominee in 1990 and 1996 U.S. Senate elections[53]
Organizations
- Bend the Arc: Jewish Action[115]
- Black Economic Alliance[116]
- Brady Campaign[54]
- Center for Biological Diversity[117]
- Communications Workers of America[118]
- Council for a Livable World[55]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[56]
- End Citizens United[119]
- Equality NC[120]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[121]
- Feminist Majority PAC[122]
- Giffords[123]
- Human Rights Campaign[124]
- Indivisible District 9[125]
- J Street PAC[57]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[126]
- League of Conservation Voters[127]
- NARAL[128]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[58]
- National Education Association[129]
- National Organization for Women[130]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[131]
- North Carolina State AFL-CIO[132]
- Patriotic Millionaires[133]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[134]
- Replacements, Ltd. PAC[59]
- Sierra Club[135]
- United Auto Workers[136]
- VoteVets.org[137]
Newspapers
Individuals
- Alex Hirsch, writer, artist, and animator[63]
Fundraising
In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million.[138]
Polling
Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
| Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Cal Cunningham | Thom Tillis | Other/Undecided[q] | Margin |
| 270 to Win[139] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 47.0% | 44.2% | 8.8% | Cunningham +2.8% |
| Real Clear Politics[140] | November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 47.6% | 45.0% | 7.4% | Cunningham +2.6% |
Tillis vs. Cunningham
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Cal Cunningham (D) |
Shannon Bray (L) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/CNBC[141] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 473 (LV) | ± 4.51% | 46% | 50% | – | 5%[r] |
| Swayable[142] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[143] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 48% | – | 6%[s] |
| Data for Progress[144] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 51% | 1% | 1%[t] |
| Frederick Polls[145][C] | October 30–31, 2020 | 676 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 50% | 3% | 2%[u] |
| Emerson College[146] | October 29–31, 2020 | 855 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47%[v] | 50% | – | 2%[w] |
| Morning Consult[147] | October 22–31, 2020 | 1,982 (LV) | ± 2% | 43% | 47% | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS[148] | October 23–30, 2020 | 901 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 47% | 2% | 5%[x] |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[149] | October 28–29, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 47% | – | 9%[y] |
| East Carolina University[150] | October 27–28, 2020 | 1,103 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46%[v] | 48% | – | 5%[z] |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (R)[151] | October 27–28, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | 6% | 7%[aa] |
| Marist College/NBC[152] | October 25–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 43% | 53% | – | 4%[ab] |
| Gravis Marketing[153] | October 26–27, 2020 | 614 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 46% | – | 9%[ac] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[154][D] | October 26–27, 2020 | 937 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | – | 9%[ac] |
| Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform (R)[155] | October 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | – | – |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[156] | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 46% | 2% | 9%[ad] |
| Ipsos/Reuters[157] | October 21–27, 2020 | 647 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 48% | – | 4%[ae] |
| RMG Research[158][af] | October 24–26, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42%[k] | 49% | – | 9%[ag] |
| 40%[ah] | 51% | – | 9%[ag] | ||||
| 43%[ai] | 48% | – | 9%[ag] | ||||
| Swayable[159] | October 23–26, 2020 | 363 (LV) | ± 7.1% | 50% | 50% | – | – |
| SurveyUSA[160] | October 23–26, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 48% | – | 7%[aj] |
| YouGov/UMass Lowell[161] | October 20–26, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 49% | – | 7%[ak] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[162] | October 22–25, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.37% | 43% | 46% | 2% | 8%[al] |
| YouGov/CBS[163] | October 20–23, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 49% | – | 8%[am] |
| Trafalgar Group[164] | October 20–22, 2020 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 2.89% | 49% | 47% | 2% | 2%[an] |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[165] | October 20–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | – | 10%[ao] |
| Citizen Data[166] | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 48% | – | 9%[ap] |
| Ipsos/Reuters[167] | October 14–20, 2020 | 660 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 47% | – | 6%[aq] |
| Morning Consult[147] | October 11–20, 2020 | 1,904 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 42% | 48% | – | – |
| Meredith College[168] | October 16–19, 2020 | 732 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 43% | 4% | 15%[ar] |
| Change Research/CNBC[169] | October 16–19, 2020 | 521 (LV)[as] | – | 45% | 51% | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D)[170] | October 15–18, 2020 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 46% | 1% | 11%[at] |
| East Carolina University[171] | October 15–18, 2020 | 1,155 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 48% | – | 5%[au] |
| ABC/Washington Post[172] | October 12–17, 2020 | 646 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 49% | – | 4%[av] |
| Emerson College[173] | October 13–14, 2020 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 45% | – | 12%[aw] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[174] | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,211 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 51% | 2% | 3%[ax] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[175] | October 9–13, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 37% | 41% | 4% | 19%[ay] |
| Ipsos/Reuters[176] | October 7–13, 2020 | 660 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 46% | – | 12%[az] |
| Monmouth University[177] | October 8–11, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 48% | 3% | 4%[ba] |
| 500 (LV)[bb] | 44% | 49% | – | 6%[bc] | |||
| 500 (LV)[bd] | 47% | 48% | – | 4%[ab] | |||
| SurveyUSA[178] | October 8–11, 2020 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 39% | 49% | – | 11%[be] |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[179][E] | October 7–11, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 46% | – | 9%[bf] |
| RMG Research[180][bg] | October 7–11, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 36% | 46% | 4% | 15%[bh] |
| Morning Consult[181] | October 2–11, 2020 | 1,993 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 41% | 47% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[182] | September 29 – October 6, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 47% | – | 11%[bi] |
| Public Policy Polling[183] | October 4–5, 2020 | 911 (V) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 48% | – | 11%[bj] |
| Data For Progress (D)[184] | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 1,285 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 50% | 2% | 9%[bk] |
| Change Research/CNBC[185] | October 2–4, 2020 | 396 (LV) | – | 46% | 50% | – | 4%[bl] |
| East Carolina University[186] | October 2–4, 2020 | 1,232 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 46% | – | 7%[bm] |
| ALG Research (D)[187][F] | September 22–28, 2020 | 822 (V) | – | 41% | 53% | – | – |
| Hart Research Associates (D)[188][G] | September 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 41% | 54% | – | – |
| YouGov/CBS[189] | September 22–25, 2020 | 1,213 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 48% | – | 14%[bn] |
| YouGov/UMass Lowell[190] | September 18–25, 2020 | 921 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 49% | – | 8%[bo] |
| Meredith College[191] | September 18–22, 2020 | 705 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | 4% | 13%[bp] |
| Change Research/CNBC[192] | September 18–20, 2020 | 579 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | – | 9%[bq] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[193] | September 17–20, 2020 | 612 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 38% | 44% | 3% | 15%[br] |
| Morning Consult[194] | September 11–20, 2020 | 1,604 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 38%[bs] | 47% | – | – |
| Emerson College[195] | September 16–18, 2020 | 717 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 49% | – | 8%[bt] |
| Morning Consult[196] | September 8–17, 2020 | 1,664 (LV)[as] | ± (2% – 4%) | 39% | 46% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[197] | September 11–16, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | – | 9%[bu] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[198] | September 11–16, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 37% | 42% | 2% | 19%[bv] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[199] | September 12–15, 2020 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 38% | 49% | – | 13%[bw] |
| Suffolk University[200] | September 10–14, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 42% | 6% | 15%[bx] |
| SurveyUSA[201] | September 10–13, 2020 | 596 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 47% | – | 13%[by] |
| CNN/SSRS[202] | September 9–13, 2020 | 787 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 47% | 3% | 4%[bz] |
| 893 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 46% | 4% | 6%[ca] | ||
| Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report[203] | August 29 – September 13, 2020 | 1,116 (RV) | – | 37% | 41% | – | 22%[cb] |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[204] | September 9–11, 2020 | 1,046 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 3% | 6%[cc] |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research[205] | September 7–8, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 10%[cd] |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[206][H] | August 8 – September 8, 2020 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 13%[ce] |
| Change Research/CNBC[207] | September 4–6, 2020 | 442 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 51% | – | 5%[cf] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[208] | August 30 – September 3, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 47% | – | 16%[cg] |
| Monmouth University[209] | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 2% | 7%[ch] |
| 401 (LV)[ci] | 45% | 47% | – | 8%[cj] | |||
| 401 (LV)[ck] | 46% | 46% | – | 8%[cj] | |||
| FOX News[210] | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 722 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 3% | 8%[cl] |
| 804 (RV) | 40% | 47% | 3% | 10%[cm] | |||
| East Carolina University[211] | August 29–30, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | – | 12%[cn] |
| Change Research/CNBC[212] | August 21–23, 2020 | 560 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 52% | – | 6%[co] |
| Morning Consult[213] | August 14–23, 2020 | 1,541 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 47% | – | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[214] | August 16–18, 2020 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 47% | – | 16%[cp] |
| East Carolina University[215] | August 12–13, 2020 | 1,255 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 44% | – | 16%[cq] |
| Emerson College[216] | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 44% | – | 14%[cr] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[217] | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 2% | 18%[cs] |
| Change Research/CNBC[218] | August 7–9, 2020 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | – | 10%[ct] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[219][I] | July 30–31, 2020 | 934 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | – | 8%[bt] |
| Data for Progress[220] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,170 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 49% | – | 10%[cu] |
| YouGov/CBS[221] | July 28–31, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 39% | 48% | – | 12%[cv] |
| HIT Strategies (D)[222][J] | July 23–31, 2020 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 32% | 48% | – | 21%[cw] |
| Change Research/CNBC[223] | July 24–26, 2020 | 284 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 52% | – | 8% |
| Morning Consult[224] | July 17–26, 2020 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 46% | – | 17% |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (R)[225][cx] | July 22–24, 2020 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | 1% | 13%[cy] |
| Public Policy Polling[226] | July 22–23, 2020 | 939 (V) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 48% | – | 13%[cz] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[227] | July 19–23, 2020 | 919 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 36% | 47% | – | 16%[da] |
| Marist College/NBC News[228] | July 14–22, 2020 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 50% | – | 10%[db] |
| Spry Strategies (R)[229][K] | July 11–16, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | – | 20%[dc] |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (R)[230] | July 13–15, 2020 | 547 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 7%[dd] |
| Change Research/CNBC[231] | July 10–12, 2020 | 655 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 49% | – | 9%[de] |
| Public Policy Polling[232] | July 7–8, 2020 | 818 (V) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 47% | – | 15%[df] |
| Change Research/CNBC[233] | June 26–28, 2020 | 468 (LV)[as] | ± 3.9% | 41% | 51% | – | 8%[dg] |
| East Carolina University[234] | June 22–25, 2020 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 41% | – | 18%[dh] |
| Public Policy Polling[235] | June 22–23, 2020 | 1,157 (V) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 44% | – | 16%[di] |
| FOX News[236] | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 39% | 3% | 20%[dj] |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[237] | June 8–18, 2020 | 653 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 42% | – | 19%[dk] |
| Gravis Marketing (R)[238][L] | June 17, 2020 | 631 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[239] | June 14–17, 2020 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | 45% | – | 19%[dl] |
| Public Policy Polling[240] | June 2–3, 2020 | 913 (V) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 43% | – | 16%[di] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 36% | 3% | 24%[dm] |
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[242][dn] | May 9–13, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 46% | – | 8%[bt] |
| East Carolina University[243] | May 7–9, 2020 | 1,111 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 41% | – | 19%[do] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos (D)[244] | May 2–4, 2020 | 1,362 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 50% | – | 9%[dp] |
| Meredith College[245] | April 27–28, 2020 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
| SurveyUSA[246] | April 23–26, 2020 | 580 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 39% | 41% | – | 20%[dq] |
| Public Policy Polling[247] | April 14–15, 2020 | 1,318 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[248] | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
| East Carolina University[249] | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
| NBC News/Marist[68] | February 23–27, 2020 | 2,120 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 48% | – | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[250][M] | February 25–26, 2020 [as] | 911 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[251][N] | January 11–15, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| ALG Research (D)[252][O] | January 8–13, 2020 | 700 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | – | 13% |
| Meredith College[253] | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3% | 33% | 33% | – | 32% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[254][O] | September 16–17, 2019 | 628 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | – | 12% |
| Fabrizio Ward[255][H] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | – | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[256][P] | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Erica D. Smith (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meredith College[253] | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3% | 33% | 34% | 17% |
| Emerson College[257] | May 31 – June 3, 2019 | 932 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 46% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[258][Q] | June 30 – July 1, 2017 | 1,102 (V) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other/Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos/Reuters[197] | September 11–16, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 48% | 5%[dt] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[198] | September 11–16, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8%[du] |
| Emerson College[216] | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 44% | 11%[bj] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[217] | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42% | 43% | 16%[dv] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 43% | 40% | 17%[dw] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[259] | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 42% | 17%[dw] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | Released March 17, 2020 | –[m] | – | 44% | 41% | 15%[dx] |
| Climate Nexus[260] | Feb 11–15, 2020 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | Released October 17, 2019 | –[m] | – | 40% | 41% | 20%[dy] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | Released September 11, 2019 | –[m] | – | 37% | 42% | 21%[dz] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | Released August 4, 2019 | –[m] | – | 39% | 37% | 24%[ea] |
| Fabrizio Ward[255][H] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 11%[eb] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | Released June 10, 2019 | –[m] | – | 38% | 38% | 24%[ec] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | Released May 5, 2019 | –[m] | – | 39% | 39% | 22%[ed] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | Released March 17, 2019 | –[m] | – | 37% | 40% | 22%[ee] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[241] | Released February 13, 2019 | –[m] | – | 37% | 38% | 25%[ef] |
Hypothetical polling
with Erica D. Smith
with Generic Democrat
with Thom Tillis and Generic Opponent
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Results
Like many Republican Senate candidates in 2020, Tillis did much better on Election Day than pre-election prediction polling indicated. The senator narrowly defeated Cunningham 48.7 to 46.9 and slightly outperformed President Trump in terms of margin of victory. Tillis's upset victory has been largely attributed to Cunningham's response to his alleged affair as well as Tillis's fierce campaigning during the last few weeks of the campaign.[261]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | 2,665,598 | 48.69% | −0.13% | |
| Democratic | Cal Cunningham | 2,569,965 | 46.94% | −0.32% | |
| Libertarian | Shannon Bray | 171,571 | 3.13% | −0.61% | |
| Constitution | Kevin E. Hayes | 67,818 | 1.24% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 5,474,952 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
By county | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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By congressional district
Tillis won 8 of 13 congressional districts.[264]
| District | Tillis | Cunningham | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 43% | 53% | G. K. Butterfield |
| 2nd | 35% | 60% | George Holding |
| Deborah K. Ross | |||
| 3rd | 59% | 37% | Greg Murphy |
| 4th | 32% | 64% | David Price |
| 5th | 64% | 31% | Virginia Foxx |
| 6th | 37% | 59% | Mark Walker |
| Kathy Manning | |||
| 7th | 56% | 39% | David Rouzer |
| 8th | 50% | 44% | Richard Hudson |
| 9th | 53% | 43% | Dan Bishop |
| 10th | 64% | 31% | Patrick McHenry |
| 11th | 53% | 42% | Madison Cawthorn |
| 12th | 29% | 66% | Alma Adams |
| 13th | 64% | 32% | Ted Budd |
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Partisan clients
- Poll conducted by the Club for Growth, a pro-Republican PAC
- Poll sponsored by AARP.
- Polling was sponsored by OANN.
- Poll sponsored by VoteVets.org
Voter samples and additional candidates
- Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- Archived October 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- Archived July 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- Archived June 5, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
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