2020 United States presidential election in Indiana
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2020 United States presidential election in Indiana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
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| Turnout | 61.37% [1]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Indiana was the home state of Pence, who served as Governor of Indiana from 2013 to 2017. Pence retained a 59% approval among voters in his home state.[4] On the day of the election, most news organizations considered Indiana a state Trump would win, or a likely red state. Trump won Indiana by 57% to Biden's 41%, a slight increase in his vote share from 2016, but a reduction in his margin of victory.
This election marked the first time since 1952 and only the third time since 1888 that Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a significant bellwether county, voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election. Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, and the first Democrat since Grover Cleveland in 1884 to win the presidency without carrying Vigo County.[5]
Biden also became the first Democrat since FDR in 1944 to win without carrying traditionally Democratic Perry County in Southern Indiana. Biden did flip Tippecanoe County, home to Lafayette and Purdue University, from Republican to Democratic, marking the first time since 1936 that the county voted against Indiana's statewide winner. Biden was also the first Democrat to win without LaPorte County since 1976. Trump also became the first Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to carry exurban Madison County with more than 60% of the vote.
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 58 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[6]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[8] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 380,836 | 76.48 | 80 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 67,688 | 13.59 | 2 |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 17,957 | 3.61 | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 14,344 | 2.88 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 4,783 | 0.96 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 4,426 | 0.89 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 3,860 | 0.78 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 2,657 | 0.53 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 1,376 | 0.28 | |
| Total | 497,927 | 100% | 82 |
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
The Green primary was held on May 1–31, 2020, with mail-in ballots being post marked no later than June 1, 2020, and results being published by June 14, 2020.[9]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| Politico[13] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| RCP[14] | Lean R | October 6, 2020 |
| Niskanen[15] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| CNN[16] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| The Economist[17] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| CBS News[18] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| 270towin[19] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| ABC News[20] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| NPR[21] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| NBC News[22] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| 538[23] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[24] | October 14 - November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 42.0% | 51.0% | 7.0% | Trump +9.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight[25] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 42.0% | 52.9% | 5.1% | Trump +10.8 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 2,729 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 54%[c] | 44% | – | – | – |
| Swayable[27] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 264 (LV) | ± 7.8% | 55% | 43% | 2% | – | – |
| Morning Consult[28] | Oct 22–31, 2020 | 1,147 (LV) | ± 3% | 53% | 42% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 4,734 (LV) | – | 55% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Swayable[29] | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 301 (LV) | ± 7.4% | 53% | 42% | 5% | – | – |
| Ragnar Research (R)[30] | Oct 18–21, 2020 | 529 (LV) | ± 4% | 48% | 40% | 5% | – | 7% |
| SurveyUSA/Election Twitter[31] | Oct 10–13, 2020 | 527 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 49% | 42% | – | 3% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,367 (LV) | – | 53% | 45% | – | – | – |
| Change Research/IndyPolitics[32] | Sep 3–7, 2020 | 1,033 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 39% | 5% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,672 (LV) | – | 55% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult[33] | Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020[d] | 900 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55% | 38% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,175 (LV) | – | 56% | 43% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 929 (LV) | – | 57% | 40% | – | – | – |
| Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General[34][A] | May 21–23, 2020 | 894 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 39% | – | – | – |
| Indy Politics/Change Research[35] | Apr 10–13, 2020 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 39% | – | 5% | 3% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump (incumbent) Mike Pence (incumbent) |
1,729,519 | 57.02% | +0.55% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,242,416 | 40.96% | +3.5% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
59,232 | 1.95% | −2.9% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins (write-in) Angela Walker (write-in) |
988 | 0.03% | −0.3% | |
| American Solidarity | Brian T. Carroll (write-in) Amar Patel (write-in) |
893 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 70 | 0.00% | +0.0% | ||
| Total votes | 3,033,118 | 100.0% | |||
| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 10,686 | 75.05% | 3,236 | 22.73% | 317 | 2.22% | 7,450 | 52.32% | 14,239 |
| Allen | 92,083 | 54.31% | 73,189 | 43.16% | 4,288 | 2.53% | 18,894 | 11.15% | 169,560 |
| Bartholomew | 22,410 | 61.74% | 12,934 | 35.63% | 956 | 2.63% | 9,476 | 26.11% | 36,300 |
| Benton | 3,007 | 73.07% | 1,009 | 24.52% | 99 | 2.41% | 1,998 | 48.55% | 4,115 |
| Blackford | 3,841 | 71.69% | 1,376 | 25.68% | 141 | 2.63% | 2,465 | 46.01% | 5,358 |
| Boone | 22,351 | 57.80% | 15,244 | 39.42% | 1,073 | 2.78% | 7,107 | 18.38% | 38,668 |
| Brown | 5,777 | 64.32% | 3,036 | 33.80% | 168 | 1.88% | 2,741 | 30.52% | 8,981 |
| Carroll | 7,086 | 74.48% | 2,224 | 23.38% | 204 | 2.14% | 4,862 | 51.10% | 9,514 |
| Cass | 10,552 | 69.43% | 4,304 | 28.32% | 342 | 2.25% | 6,248 | 41.11% | 15,198 |
| Clark | 33,668 | 57.99% | 23,093 | 39.78% | 1,296 | 2.23% | 10,575 | 18.21% | 58,057 |
| Clay | 9,499 | 77.35% | 2,552 | 20.78% | 220 | 1.87% | 6,947 | 56.57% | 12,281 |
| Clinton | 9,334 | 72.02% | 3,361 | 25.93% | 266 | 2.05% | 5,973 | 46.09% | 12,961 |
| Crawford | 3,483 | 70.39% | 1,355 | 27.38% | 110 | 2.23% | 2,128 | 43.01% | 4,948 |
| Daviess | 9,576 | 79.99% | 2,169 | 18.12% | 226 | 1.89% | 7,407 | 61.87% | 11,971 |
| Dearborn | 19,528 | 76.78% | 5,446 | 21.41% | 460 | 1.81% | 14,082 | 55.37% | 25,434 |
| Decatur | 9,575 | 77.82% | 2,439 | 19.82% | 290 | 2.36% | 7,136 | 58.00% | 12,304 |
| DeKalb | 14,237 | 72.43% | 4,966 | 25.26% | 453 | 2.31% | 9,271 | 47.17% | 19,656 |
| Delaware | 26,827 | 55.49% | 20,474 | 42.35% | 1,041 | 2.16% | 6,353 | 13.14% | 48,342 |
| Dubois | 15,033 | 68.94% | 6,292 | 28.85% | 481 | 2.21% | 8,741 | 40.09% | 21,806 |
| Elkhart | 46,972 | 62.95% | 26,108 | 34.99% | 1,538 | 2.06% | 20,864 | 27.96% | 74,618 |
| Fayette | 7,755 | 76.43% | 2,237 | 22.05% | 154 | 1.52% | 5,518 | 54.38% | 10,146 |
| Floyd | 23,400 | 55.85% | 17,511 | 41.79% | 988 | 2.36% | 5,889 | 14.06% | 41,899 |
| Fountain | 6,154 | 76.99% | 1,629 | 20.38% | 210 | 2.63% | 4,525 | 56.61% | 7,993 |
| Franklin | 9,691 | 80.64% | 2,137 | 17.78% | 190 | 1.58% | 7,554 | 62.86% | 12,018 |
| Fulton | 6,694 | 73.18% | 2,280 | 24.93% | 173 | 1.89% | 4,414 | 48.25% | 9,147 |
| Gibson | 11,817 | 73.12% | 4,023 | 24.89% | 321 | 1.99% | 7,794 | 48.23% | 16,161 |
| Grant | 18,543 | 68.10% | 8,015 | 29.43% | 672 | 2.47% | 10,528 | 38.67% | 27,230 |
| Greene | 11,103 | 74.98% | 3,389 | 22.89% | 315 | 2.13% | 7,714 | 52.09% | 14,807 |
| Hamilton | 101,587 | 52.21% | 88,390 | 45.43% | 4,600 | 2.36% | 13,197 | 6.78% | 194,577 |
| Hancock | 28,996 | 67.40% | 12,895 | 29.97% | 1,129 | 2.63% | 16,101 | 37.43% | 43,020 |
| Harrison | 14,565 | 71.98% | 5,343 | 26.40% | 328 | 1.62% | 9,222 | 45.58% | 20,236 |
| Hendricks | 53,802 | 60.65% | 32,604 | 36.76% | 2,299 | 2.59% | 21,198 | 23.89% | 88,705 |
| Henry | 15,043 | 71.43% | 5,544 | 26.32% | 474 | 2.25% | 9,499 | 45.11% | 21,061 |
| Howard | 26,449 | 65.10% | 13,303 | 32.74% | 878 | 2.16% | 13,146 | 32.36% | 40,630 |
| Huntington | 13,147 | 73.57% | 4,255 | 23.81% | 468 | 2.62% | 8,892 | 49.76% | 17,870 |
| Jackson | 14,555 | 75.66% | 4,302 | 22.36% | 381 | 1.98% | 10,253 | 53.30% | 19,238 |
| Jasper | 11,383 | 73.56% | 3,798 | 24.54% | 294 | 1.90% | 7,585 | 49.02% | 15,475 |
| Jay | 6,361 | 75.14% | 1,926 | 22.75% | 179 | 2.11% | 4,435 | 52.39% | 8,466 |
| Jefferson | 9,663 | 65.60% | 4,731 | 32.12% | 336 | 2.28% | 4,932 | 33.48% | 14,730 |
| Jennings | 9,490 | 77.29% | 2,523 | 20.55% | 265 | 2.16% | 6,967 | 56.74% | 12,278 |
| Johnson | 51,219 | 65.83% | 24,736 | 31.79% | 1,847 | 2.38% | 26,483 | 34.04% | 77,802 |
| Knox | 11,655 | 72.72% | 4,067 | 25.37% | 306 | 1.91% | 7,588 | 47.35% | 16,028 |
| Kosciusko | 26,499 | 73.85% | 8,364 | 23.31% | 1,021 | 2.84% | 18,135 | 50.54% | 35,884 |
| LaGrange | 8,110 | 76.14% | 2,355 | 22.11% | 187 | 1.75% | 5,755 | 54.03% | 10,652 |
| Lake | 91,760 | 41.65% | 124,870 | 56.67% | 3,700 | 1.68% | -33,110 | -15.02% | 220,330 |
| LaPorte | 25,997 | 52.54% | 22,427 | 45.32% | 1,059 | 2.14% | 3,570 | 7.22% | 49,483 |
| Lawrence | 15,601 | 74.04% | 4,961 | 23.54% | 509 | 2.42% | 10,640 | 50.50% | 21,071 |
| Madison | 31,215 | 60.16% | 19,524 | 37.63% | 1,151 | 2.21% | 11,691 | 22.53% | 51,890 |
| Marion | 134,175 | 34.30% | 247,772 | 63.35% | 9,187 | 2.35% | -113,597 | -29.05% | 391,134 |
| Marshall | 13,844 | 69.38% | 5,712 | 28.63% | 397 | 1.99% | 8,132 | 40.75% | 19,953 |
| Martin | 4,029 | 78.16% | 1,011 | 19.61% | 115 | 2.23% | 3,018 | 58.55% | 5,155 |
| Miami | 10,925 | 75.38% | 3,235 | 22.32% | 333 | 2.30% | 7,690 | 53.06% | 14,493 |
| Monroe | 22,071 | 34.95% | 39,861 | 63.12% | 1,219 | 1.93% | -17,790 | -28.17% | 63,151 |
| Montgomery | 12,659 | 73.61% | 4,213 | 24.50% | 326 | 1.89% | 8,446 | 49.11% | 17,198 |
| Morgan | 27,512 | 75.96% | 7,781 | 21.48% | 928 | 2.56% | 19,731 | 54.48% | 36,221 |
| Newton | 4,942 | 74.78% | 1,509 | 22.83% | 158 | 2.39% | 3,433 | 51.95% | 6,609 |
| Noble | 14,195 | 73.87% | 4,660 | 24.25% | 362 | 1.88% | 9,535 | 49.62% | 19,217 |
| Ohio | 2,392 | 75.60% | 750 | 23.70% | 22 | 0.70% | 1,642 | 51.90% | 3,164 |
| Orange | 6,432 | 72.73% | 2,224 | 25.15% | 188 | 2.12% | 4,208 | 47.58% | 8,844 |
| Owen | 7,286 | 73.47% | 2,420 | 24.40% | 211 | 2.13% | 4,866 | 49.07% | 9,917 |
| Parke | 5,400 | 76.90% | 1,503 | 21.40% | 119 | 1.70% | 3,897 | 55.50% | 7,022 |
| Perry | 5,345 | 61.18% | 3,203 | 36.66% | 189 | 2.16% | 2,142 | 24.52% | 8,737 |
| Pike | 4,692 | 75.37% | 1,415 | 22.73% | 118 | 1.90% | 3,277 | 52.64% | 6,225 |
| Porter | 45,008 | 51.87% | 39,746 | 45.81% | 2,014 | 2.32% | 5,262 | 6.06% | 86,768 |
| Posey | 9,209 | 69.38% | 3,817 | 28.76% | 247 | 1.86% | 5,392 | 40.62% | 13,273 |
| Pulaski | 4,246 | 73.04% | 1,463 | 25.17% | 104 | 1.79% | 2,783 | 47.87% | 5,813 |
| Putnam | 12,278 | 73.86% | 3,946 | 23.74% | 399 | 2.40% | 8,332 | 50.12% | 16,623 |
| Randolph | 8,312 | 75.02% | 2,513 | 22.68% | 254 | 2.30% | 5,799 | 52.34% | 11,079 |
| Ripley | 11,261 | 78.79% | 2,774 | 19.41% | 257 | 1.80% | 8,487 | 59.38% | 14,292 |
| Rush | 6,035 | 76.00% | 1,754 | 22.09% | 152 | 1.91% | 4,281 | 53.91% | 7,941 |
| Scott | 7,331 | 72.00% | 2,701 | 26.53% | 150 | 1.47% | 4,630 | 45.47% | 10,182 |
| Shelby | 14,568 | 72.78% | 5,023 | 25.09% | 426 | 2.13% | 9,545 | 47.69% | 20,017 |
| Spencer | 7,357 | 68.19% | 3,213 | 29.78% | 219 | 2.03% | 4,144 | 38.41% | 10,789 |
| St. Joseph | 53,164 | 46.13% | 59,896 | 51.98% | 2,178 | 1.89% | -6,732 | -5.85% | 115,238 |
| Starke | 7,469 | 72.42% | 2,651 | 25.71% | 193 | 1.87% | 4,818 | 46.71% | 10,313 |
| Steuben | 11,327 | 69.99% | 4,513 | 27.89% | 344 | 2.12% | 6,814 | 42.10% | 16,184 |
| Sullivan | 6,691 | 74.28% | 2,153 | 23.90% | 164 | 1.82% | 4,538 | 50.38% | 9,008 |
| Switzerland | 3,133 | 75.33% | 964 | 23.18% | 62 | 1.49% | 2,169 | 52.15% | 4,159 |
| Tippecanoe | 34,581 | 48.15% | 35,017 | 48.75% | 2,226 | 3.10% | -436 | -0.60% | 71,824 |
| Tipton | 6,110 | 75.21% | 1,834 | 22.58% | 180 | 2.21% | 4,276 | 52.63% | 8,124 |
| Union | 2,688 | 76.98% | 736 | 21.08% | 68 | 1.94% | 1,952 | 55.90% | 3,492 |
| Vanderburgh | 41,844 | 53.88% | 34,415 | 44.31% | 1,403 | 1.81% | 7,429 | 9.57% | 77,662 |
| Vermillion | 5,184 | 69.21% | 2,145 | 28.64% | 161 | 2.15% | 3,039 | 40.57% | 7,490 |
| Vigo | 24,545 | 56.17% | 18,123 | 41.47% | 1,030 | 2.36% | 6,422 | 14.70% | 43,698 |
| Wabash | 10,762 | 73.72% | 3,494 | 23.93% | 342 | 2.35% | 7,268 | 49.79% | 14,598 |
| Warren | 3,401 | 76.03% | 974 | 21.78% | 98 | 2.19% | 2,427 | 54.25% | 4,473 |
| Warrick | 21,326 | 62.93% | 11,923 | 35.18% | 641 | 1.89% | 9,403 | 27.75% | 33,890 |
| Washington | 9,114 | 75.08% | 2,784 | 22.93% | 241 | 1.99% | 6,330 | 52.15% | 12,139 |
| Wayne | 17,567 | 63.47% | 9,524 | 34.41% | 588 | 2.12% | 8,043 | 29.06% | 27,679 |
| Wells | 10,855 | 77.10% | 2,928 | 20.80% | 297 | 2.10% | 7,927 | 56.30% | 14,080 |
| White | 7,957 | 71.13% | 3,032 | 27.10% | 198 | 1.77% | 4,925 | 44.03% | 11,187 |
| Whitley | 12,862 | 73.13% | 4,234 | 24.07% | 492 | 2.80% | 8,628 | 49.06% | 17,588 |
| Totals | 1,729,863 | 56.91% | 1,242,505 | 40.87% | 67,413 | 2.22% | 487,358 | 16.04% | 3,039,781 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Trump and Republican candidates won 7 of 9 congressional districts.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 44.8% | 53.6% | Frank J. Mrvan |
| 2nd | 59.4% | 38.9% | Jackie Walorski |
| 3rd | 63.9% | 34% | Jim Banks |
| 4th | 63.8% | 34% | Jim Baird |
| 5th | 50.1% | 47.9% | Victoria Spartz |
| 6th | 68.8% | 29.1% | Greg Pence |
| 7th | 35.3% | 62.9% | André Carson |
| 8th | 65.1% | 33.1% | Larry Bucshon |
| 9th | 60.8% | 37.2% | Trey Hollingsworth |
Biden significantly reduced the Republican margin in Hamilton County, a suburban county in the Indianapolis metropolitan area that is the state's fourth-most populous county.[38] Hamilton County has never supported a candidate of the Democratic Party for president except for 1912, when the split in the Republicans allowed Woodrow Wilson to carry the county with a 34.9% plurality.[5] Hamilton broke 60%-38% for John McCain in 2008, when Barack Obama won Indiana. Mitt Romney won Hamilton County 66%–32% in 2012 and Trump won it 56%-37% in 2016, nearly identical to his statewide margin. In this election, Trump narrowly won Hamilton County, 52%-45%, a margin that is to the left of the statewide result. Biden's 45% vote share in Hamilton County is higher than that of even Lyndon B. Johnson in his nationwide landslide in 1964 and higher than that of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.[5] Biden's vote share in Hamilton is only equaled by Roosevelt's 44.85% share in his 1932 landslide.
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