氣候變率與變化（英語：Climate variability and change）包含兩件事，氣候變率（climate variability）談的是持續期間超過單一天氣事件的變動，而氣候變化僅指那些持續時間較長（通常為數十年或更長）的變化。氣候變化可指地球史上的任何時期，但此名詞現在通常用於描述當代的氣候變化。自第一次工業革命以來，氣候越來越受到人類活動的影響（參見人類對環境的影響）。[1]
對從冰帽（如南極冰蓋）鑽取的冰芯進行分析，可顯示溫度與全球海平面變化之間的關係。冰芯氣泡中的空氣也可揭示遙遠過去大氣中二氧化碳的變化，此類變化遠早於受到現代環境的影響。這些冰芯提供的資訊一直是研究數千年來二氧化碳變化的重要指標，並提供有關古代和現代大氣條件差異的寶貴信息。根據方解石和冰芯樣本中的18O/16O比率（參見氧同位素比率循環（英语：Oxygen isotope ratio cycle））可用於推斷遙遠過去的海洋溫度，是利用代理測量的一個例子。
由於人類排放溫室氣體，全球地表溫度開始上升。全球暖化是現代氣候變化的一個面向，此名詞還包括降水、風暴路徑和雲量的變化。結果是世界各地的冰河正在顯著縮減（參見1850年起的冰河退卻現象（英语：retreat of glaciers since 1850））。[127][128]南極洲和格陵蘭的陸地冰帽自2002年以來一直在流失中，2009年起流失加速。[129]全球海平面由於海水受熱熱膨脹和冰融化，而一直上升。北極海冰在過去的幾十年裡，其面積和厚度的減少，進一步證明氣候正快速變化中。[130]
America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council. Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2010. ISBN 978-0-309-14588-6. （原始内容存档于2014-05-29）. (p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. (pp. 21–22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1994-03-21 [2023-05-24]. （原始内容存档于2022-09-20）. Climate change means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
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Shaftel, Holly (编). Climate Change: How do we know?. NASA Global Climate Change. Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. [2017-12-16]. （原始内容存档于2019-12-18）.
Hawkins, Ed. Atmospheric temperature trends. Climate Lab Book. 2019-09-12. （原始内容存档于2019-09-12）. (Higher-altitude cooling differences attributed to ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increases; spikes occurred with volcanic eruptions of 1982-83 (El Chichón) and 1991-92 (Pinatubo).)
Hawkins, Ed. From the familiar to the unknown. Climate Lab Book (professional blog). 2020-03-10. （原始内容存档于2020-04-23）. (Direct link to image; Hawkins credits Berkeley Earth for data.) "The emergence of observed temperature changes over both land and ocean is clearest in tropical regions, in contrast to the regions of largest change which are in the northern extra-tropics. As an illustration, northern America has warmed more than tropical America, but the changes in the tropics are more apparent and have more clearly emerged from the range of historical variability. The year-to-year variations in the higher latitudes have made it harder to distinguish the long-term changes."
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