Epitoma proiectionum exemplaris climatis in Quarta Aestimationis Relatione IPSS (2007) ab Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change datur; quo IPCC indicat per saeculum vicensimum globalem superficiei temperaturam probabiliter elevari addita 1.1 ad 2.9 C in sua minima, et a 2.4 ad 6.4 C in sua maxima aestimatione emissionum.[8] Variationes harum aestimationum ex usu exemplarium quibus sunt variae climatis sentiendi facultates erga gasia thermocepica oriuntur.[9][10]
Calefactio et mutationes coniunctae ob effectus inter regiones circa Tellurem variabuntur.[11] Inter effectus incrementi temperaturae globalis sunt elevatioaequoris maris, mutatio summae et exemplaribus praecipitationis, et probabilis desertorumsubtropicorum expansio.[12] Calefactio exspectari maxima in regione Arctica, cum continuo recessu montium glaciei, pruinae perennis, et glaciei marinae consociata. Alii calefactionis effectus probabiles frequentiores eventuum caeli extremi casus comprehendunt, inter quos undae caloris, siccitates, maior pluvia, acidificatio oceanorum, et exstinctionesspecierum ob permutantia temperaturae regimina. Inter effectus hominibus magni momenti sunt amplus cibus ex messibus deminutis et detrimentum habitationis ob inundationes. Si media temperatura globalis 4 C super gradum praeindustrialem augetur, veri simile erit fines adaptionis humanae in multis orbis terrarum regionibus excedi, et multa systemata naturalia se accommodare plerumque nequire; quo facto, homines damnum contrahere beneficiorum quae illa systemata praebent et ex quibus vita et cultura humanae dependent.[13]
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level." IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 1.1: Observations of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
"Three different approaches are used to describe uncertainties each with a distinct form of language. . . . Where uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%; extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%." IPCC, Synthesis Report, Treatment of Uncertainty, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
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