Sea wall (British politics)
British political term From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Sea wall is a term used by psephologists to refer to 108 constituencies along the UK coastline, generalising them as marginal.[1] They formed before the July 2024 election a majority of Conservative pluralities, so seats, many or most marginal enough to be vulnerable to Labour according to opinion polls.[2][3] As to the Red and Blue walls, the Sea wall overlaps both[4] and was used in some coverage of the 2024 general election.[5] From the 2019 general election to July 2024, Labour held 24 of these seats.[6]
These seats in England and Wales are noted, relative to the national average, for deprivation.[7][8] They are personified by tourism-based economies, the cost of living crisis, and poor connectivity.[9] Coastal residents bring home on average lower wages.[10] The availability of affordable housing has also been an issue.[11]
Before the 2024 general election, the think tank Onward called coastal areas “the forgotten battleground that could decide [this] election”.[12]
Background
The term was used 2022 local elections when the Labour Party took majority control of Worthing Borough Council just five years after winning their first councillor in the district.[13] Labour are considered to be competitive in Conservative areas within the South like Plymouth, Bournemouth, Southampton, and Portsmouth.[14]
Research from the Fabian Society was reported on that Labour had unprecedented polling leads over the Conservatives.[15] The "sea wall" is regarded by them as an important area for the 2024 general election.[16] YouGov polling showed that 44% of voters in the Sea wall said they would never consider voting Conservative.[17]
Jaywick in Tendring District in Essex is the most deprived neighbourhood in England.[18] The Clacton constituency was noted for being the only place to elect a UKIP MP in a general election.[19] Since Brexit, Conservative support in coastal areas that voted Leave has been waning.[20] On 3 June 2024, Nigel Farage took over Reform UK and announced his candidacy in Clacton.[21]
Elections in the 2020s
Labour won the 2024 Blackpool South by-election with a large swing.[22] Channel 4 reported during the 2024 election that the coastal towns in the sea wall would determine the election.[23]
In the 2024 United Kingdom general election, Labour had a breakthrough in coastal England, winning coastal areas they never had before in Cornwall, Dorset, Somerset, the Isle of Wight, West Sussex, Kent, Norfolk and Essex.[24]
See also
References
External links
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