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Results of the 2004 Canadian federal election by riding

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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This is a seat by seat list of candidates in the 2004 Canadian election.

For more information about the election see 2004 Canadian federal election.

2004 federal redistribution

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Due to the 2001 census, Canada's 301 electoral districts increased to 308 as of April 1, 2004. Boundary changes took effect across the country to even out population redistribution, and seven new districts were formed. Each province has a minimum number of seats, and therefore it is rare for a province to lose seats in a redistribution. The numbers beside the region names correspond to the map below.

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Candidates and ridings

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schematic seat-by-seat results

All candidate names are those on the official list of confirmed candidates; names in media or on party website may differ slightly.

Names in bold represent party leaders and cabinet ministers.
† represents that the incumbent chose not to run again.
§ represents that the incumbent was defeated for nomination.
‡ represents that the incumbent ran in a different district.
@ represents that the candidate was automatically granted the nomination by party leader.

Nominations closed on June 7, 2004. Elections Canada released a final candidate list on June 9.

Party key and abbreviations guide

Green Party
New Democratic Party
Bloc Québécois
Liberal Party
Conservative Party
Independent/Other

Newfoundland and Labrador

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Prince Edward Island

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Nova Scotia

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New Brunswick

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Quebec

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Quebec flag

Throughout most of recent history, the Liberals have dominated in federal politics in Quebec, even when Quebec voters were simultaneously electing the Parti Québécois at the provincial level.

There have been temporary Progressive Conservative breakthroughs under Diefenbaker in the 1958 election, and under native son Brian Mulroney in the 1984 election and the 1988 election, but these did not last. The 1958 result was helped by an alliance with Maurice Duplessis's formidable provincial electoral machine. But by the 1962 election, Duplessis had died and his Union Nationale party was out of office and in disarray, and Diefenbaker's support in Quebec had evaporated. The Mulroney-era resurgence also collapsed entirely when he retired from politics.

The Bloc Québécois was formed for the 1993 election in the aftermath of the failure of the Meech Lake Accord and Charlottetown Accord, and has won more seats in Quebec than the Liberals in every election it has run in. The number of seats won by the Bloc has declined in each successive election from 1993 to 1997 to 2000. The party has now had a resurgence due to the sponsorship scandal and the unpopularity of Jean Charest's provincial Liberal government, which influences support for the federal Liberals even though the two parties are independent of one another.

Polls show the Bloc with a strong lead, and they may return to the number of seats they had in 1993. However, the Liberals are likely to dominate in many parts of Montreal. Ridings where Anglophone voters are a significant factor are among the safest Liberal seats in all of Canada.

The other two major federal parties, the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party (NDP) are not expected to win any seats and are struggling to move out of single digits in the polls. The NDP in particular has historically never had any electoral success in Quebec up to that point.

Eastern Quebec

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Côte-Nord and Saguenay

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Quebec City

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Central Quebec

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Eastern Townships

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1 Bachand was formerly a PC

Montérégie

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Eastern Montreal

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Western Montreal

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Northern Montreal and Laval

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Laurentides, Outaouais and Northern Quebec

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Ontario

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Ontario was predicted to be the battle ground of this election. Most pundits believed that this is where the election was lost for the Conservatives. Ontario is home to more than one third of all of Canada's ridings. In the last three elections, right wing vote splitting has resulted in just six riding losses for the Liberals, compared to 299 riding wins. However, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives have merged, and they should win many seats in Ontario, especially in rural ridings in midwestern Ontario, Central-eastern Ontario, and Central Ontario. The NDP has some support in various pockets in Ontario in the past, but has only won one riding in the last three elections, and one more in a by-election, both in Windsor. However, the NDP was expected to do well not only in Windsor, but in Hamilton, Downtown Toronto, Ottawa Centre, and possibly even in Northern Ontario.

Ottawa

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Eastern Ontario

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Central Ontario

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Southern Durham and York

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Central Toronto

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Suburban Toronto

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Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville

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Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara

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Midwestern Ontario

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Southwestern Ontario

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Northern Ontario

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Manitoba

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Manitoba is traditionally split between the NDP, the Liberals, and the Conservatives. This is especially true in the city of Winnipeg where most Manitobans live. However, due to vote splitting in recent elections, neither the Progressive Conservatives or the Canadian Alliance/Reform Party have been able to win in Winnipeg. In rural Manitoba, the Liberals are usually shut out of elections (exception in 1993). Conservative support is normally in the more populous south, with NDP support in the sparsely populated north, which usually only means one seat.

Rural Manitoba

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Winnipeg

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Saskatchewan

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In terms of party lines, Saskatchewan is not divided up between north and south but by urban and rural. Traditionally, Saskatchewan has been a two-way race between the Conservatives, and later the Reform/Alliance and the NDP. Recent vote splitting has allowed the Liberals to come through and win a few seats in this polarized province. Urban Saskatchewan has tended to vote NDP and rural Saskatchewan has tended to vote Conservative. This is especially true in provincial politics, where riding boundaries more reflect the urban/rural divide. Both Saskatoon and Regina, Saskatchewans largest cities are split into 4 ridings each. All eight of these ridings are generally split evenly between rural and urban. Northern Saskatchewan has in the past been the stand-alone region of rural Saskatchewan, usually voting for the NDP.

Southern Saskatchewan

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Northern Saskatchewan

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Alberta

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Alberta is unarguably the most Conservative province in Canada. You need only look at the results of the ridings here in the last century to prove this. Alberta has long been a Progressive Conservative province, but with the collapse of the party in 1993, Albertans went to the Reform Party of Canada (later the Canadian Alliance) for their vote. Edmonton seems to be the only exception to this. The Liberals have won in Edmonton six times since 1993, and the NDP has won in Edmonton as well.

Rural Alberta

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Edmonton and environs

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Edmonton is the most left wing area of Alberta, but this doesn't say much. Much like the rest of Alberta, Edmonton usually always votes for the leading right wing party of the day. This is the one area of Alberta where the Liberals have been able to win anything in recent years, winning two seats in both 1997 and 2000, and four seats in 1993. The NDP have also won a seat in Edmonton, doing so in 1988. The two Liberal incumbents are both in close races, and the new Conservative Party of Canada could possibly sweep Edmonton, and therefore all of Alberta.

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Calgary

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Calgary, the largest city in Alberta is just as Conservative as rural Alberta. The Progressive Conservatives swept Calgary until 1993, then it was the Reform Party in 1993 and 1997, then the Canadian Alliance in 2000. The one abnormal seat was when Progressive Conservative Party leader Joe Clark won the riding of Calgary Centre in 2000. It is expected the Conservatives will once again sweep Calgary in 2004.

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British Columbia

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British Columbia is what many pundits consider to be the complete opposite of a bellwether region. British Columbia has a history of voting against the government. This has meant the NDP in the 1980s and the Reform/Canadian Alliance in the 1990s. More recently, regional trends have started to appear in B.C. The interior votes very Conservative, as the Canadian Alliance swept this area in 2000. B.C. has in the past been a province that would swing from one extreme to the other going for the right wing Social Credit to the left wing NDP in the past, in not only federal elections but provincial elections. The NDP also does well in British Columbia, or at least has in the past. Recently, they have been reduced to seats in the Vancouver area. There is hope that they will return to more traditional NDP seats on Vancouver Island, and in the interior. The Liberals have also won a few seats in B.C. recently, an area they have traditionally done very poor. Their strengths are in Victoria and in Vancouver.

Interior B.C.

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Fraser Valley and Southern Lower Mainland

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Vancouver and Northern Lower Mainland

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Vancouver Island

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Nunavut

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Northwest Territories

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Yukon

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See also

Notes

  1. Efford won seat in 2002 byelection; originally held by Liberal Brian Tobin.
  2. Barnes won seat in 2002 byelection; originally held by Liberal George Baker.
  3. Brison defected from the Progressive Conservative caucus in December 2003.
  4. Herron was formerly PC, sat until dissolution as an independent, then ran as a Liberal.
  5. Elected in a 2003 byelection after Antoine Dubé resigned to seek a seat in the National Assembly of Quebec.
  6. Jean-Guy Carignan was elected as a Liberal MP for the Quebec East riding in 2000 but left the Liberal caucus in December 2001. He rejoined the Liberal caucus for 2 days in October 2003, and sat as an Independent MP for the remainder of the 37th Parliament.
  7. Formerly held by Liberal Jean Chrétien.
  8. Lebel formerly Bloc Québécois.
  9. Lanctôt defected from the Bloc Québécois in December 2003.
  10. Venne is formerly Bloc Québécois.
  11. Previously held by Liberal Mac Harb
  12. Formerly held by Allan Rock (Liberal).
  13. Elected as a Progressive Conservative in 2000, declined to join the Conservative caucus upon the merger of the Progressive Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance.
  14. Cadman lost the Conservative nomination and left caucus to sit as an Independent in April 2004.
  15. Elected as an Alliance MP in 2000, Keith Martin left the Alliance caucus in 2003, refusing to join the new Conservative Party and sat as an independent for the remainder of the 37th Parliament. He ran again successfully as a Liberal in 2004.
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Sources

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