Next New Zealand general election

The next New Zealand general election will be held after the current 54th New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 14 October 2023. The last possible date for the election to be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.

Next New Zealand general election

← 2023 No later than 19 December 2026
← outgoing members
All 120 seats (plus any overhang) in the House of Representatives 61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Christopher Luxon Chris Hipkins Marama Davidson Chlöe Swarbrick Party National Labour Green Leader since 30 November 2021 22 January 2023 8 April 2018 10 March 2024 Leader's seat Botany Remutaka List Auckland Central Last election 48 seats, 38.06% 34 seats, 26.91% 15 seats, 11.60% Current seats 49 34 15 Seats needed 12 27 46   Leader David Seymour Winston Peters Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Rawiri Waititi Party ACT NZ First Te Pāti Māori Leader since 4 October 2014 18 July 1993 15 April 2020 28 October 2020 Leader's seat Epsom List Te Tai Hauāuru Waiariki Last election 11 seats, 8.64% 8 seats, 6.08% 6 seats, 3.08% Current seats 11 8 6 Seats needed 50 53 55
Incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon National

Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members are elected from single-member electorates and 49 members are elected from closed party lists.

After the previous election, the centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, formed a coalition government with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National–ACT–NZ First government is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wing Green Party and the indigenous rights-based Te Pāti Māori.

Electoral system

Main article: Electoral system of New Zealand

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. At this election, 71 of the 120 seats will be filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 49 seats will be filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when the Labour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in 2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.

Electorate boundaries

Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the 2023 census. This means that unless a snap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census.^[1][2]

The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16,^[3] with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates, leaving 48 seats to be elected through party lists. Due to changes in the relative populations between the two islands, Statistics New Zealand announced on 25 October 2024 that there would be 16 South Island electorates, 48 North Island electorates, 7 Māori electorates, and 49 list seats.^[4][5] Redrawn draft boundaries were released for public consultation on 25 March 2025. The draft boundaries proposed the disestablishment of the Ōhāriu, Mana and Ōtaki electorates in Wellington, replacing them with two new electorates , Kenepuru and Kapiti. Meanwhile due to significant boundary changes in New Lynn, Kelston, Te Atatū, Panmure-Ōtāhuhu, and Bay of Plenty, they are proposed to be replaced with new electorates named Waitākere, Glendene, Rānui, Ōtāhuhu, and Mount Maunganui respectively.^[6]

Election date

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023.^[7]

The Governor General must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament.^[8] Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament will expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which will be Tuesday, 5 January 2027.^[9] Because polling day must be a Saturday^[9] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is Saturday, 19 December 2026.

Campaign

Parties

Since the 2023 election, six parties have been deregistered: DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024,^[10][a] Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024,^[11][b] New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024,^[12][c] Democratic Alliance on 27 November 2024,^[13] New Nation Party on 29 January 2025,^[14][d] and Freedoms New Zealand on 1 May 2025.^[15][e]

Party		Leader(s)	Founded	Ideology	2023 election result		Current seats	Status
					% party vote	seats
	National	Christopher Luxon	1936	Conservatism Liberalism	38.08%	48 / 123	49 / 123	Coalition
	Labour	Chris Hipkins	1916	Social democracy	26.92%	34 / 123	34 / 123	Opposition
	Green	Marama Davidson Chlöe Swarbrick	1990	Green politics Social democracy	11.61%	15 / 123	15 / 123	Opposition
	ACT	David Seymour	1994	Classical liberalism Right-libertarianism	8.64%	11 / 123	11 / 123	Coalition
	NZ First	Winston Peters	1993	Nationalism Social conservatism	6.09%	8 / 123	8 / 123	Coalition
	Te Pāti Māori	Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Rawiri Waititi	2004	Māori rights Tino rangatiratanga	3.08%	6 / 123	6 / 123	Opposition
	Opportunities		2016	Radical centrism	2.22%	0 / 123	0 / 123	Not in Parliament
	NewZeal	Alfred Ngaro	2020	Social conservatism	0.56%	0 / 123	0 / 123	Not in Parliament
	Legalise Cannabis	Maki Herbert Michael Appleby	1996	Cannabis legalisation	0.45%	0 / 123	0 / 123	Not in Parliament
	Outdoors	Sue Grey	2015	Environmentalism Conspiracism	0.34%[f]	0 / 123	0 / 123	Not in Parliament
	Vision NZ	Hannah Tamaki	2019	Christian nationalism		0 / 123	0 / 123	Not in Parliament
	Animal Justice	Anna Rippon Robert McNeil	2023	Animal rights	0.17%	0 / 123	0 / 123	Not in Parliament
	New Conservatives	Helen Houghton	2011	Conservatism Traditionalism	0.15%	0 / 123	0 / 123	Not in Parliament
	Women's Rights	Jill Ovens Chimene Del La Veras	2023	Anti-transgender sentiment	0.08%	0 / 123	0 / 123	Not in Parliament

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

Local regression graph of opinion polls conducted

Seat projections

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.^[16]

Source	Seats in parliament[i]							Likely government formation
	NAT	LAB	GRN	ACT	NZF	TPM	Total
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[17] 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 poll	42	41	11	12	9	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[18] 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 poll	39	36	17	11	11	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (61)
1 News–Verian[19] 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 poll	44	40	12	11	9	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[20] 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 poll	42	37	14	13	9	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
RNZ–Reid Research[21] 21–27 Mar 2025 poll	41	40	12	12	9	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Roy Morgan[22] 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 poll	41	35	18	10	9	7	120	Hung parliament
Talbot Mills[23] 1–10 Mar 2025 poll	39	43	13	12	8	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[24] 2–4 Mar 2025 poll	42	42	12	10	6	8	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
Roy Morgan[25] 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 poll	38	36	20	14	8	6**	122	Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian[26] 3–7 Feb 2025 poll	43	42	13	11	6	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[27] 2–4 Feb 2025 poll	39	39	16	12	8	6	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Talbot Mills[28] 7–27 Jan 2025 poll	40	42	15	11	6	6	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (63)
Roy Morgan[29] 2–26 Jan 2025 poll	40	36	14	11	11	8	120	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[30] 9–13 Jan 2025 poll	38	39	12	14	10	7	120	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Roy Morgan[31] 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 poll	39	32	17	16	9	7	120	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
1 News–Verian[32] 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 poll	46	36	12	10	7	9	120	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[33] 1–3 Dec 2024 poll	44	34	11	17	7	7	120	National–ACT (61)
Labour–Talbot Mills[34] 22–28 Nov 2024 poll	39	40	12	12	8	9	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
The Post–Freshwater Strategy[35] 26–27 Nov 2024 poll	42	39	16	10	8	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Roy Morgan[36] 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 poll	37	36	17	11	8	11	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[37] 6–10 Nov 2024 poll	48	39	11	11	8	6***	123	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[38] 1–10 Nov 2024 poll	42	41	12	12	9	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[39] 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 poll	39	37	18	11	9	6	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
1 News–Verian[40] 5–9 Oct 2024 poll	47	37	15	10	6	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[41] 3–7 Oct 2024 poll	44	38	13	12	9	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan[42] 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll	47	29	17	13	9	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[43] 8–10 Sep 2024 poll	48	33	14	11	8	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[44] 1–10 Sep 2024 poll	46	39	12	10	8	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[45] 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll	45	33	16	12	9	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
1 News–Verian[46] 10–14 Aug 2024 poll	49	38	14	8	7	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[47] 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll	41	31	18	14	8	8	120	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[48] 4–8 Jul 2024 poll	47	33	16	11	9	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Roy Morgan[49] 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll	44	35	18	11	7	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
1 News–Verian[50] 15–19 Jun 2024 poll	47	36	16	9	8	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[51] 4–6 Jun 2024 poll	44	36	16	12	7	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[52] 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll	42	38	17	12	7	6**	122	Hung parliament
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[53] 5–7 May 2024 poll	47	37	13	12	7	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Talbot Mills[54] 30 Apr 2024 poll	42	41	15	9	8	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian[55] 20–24 Apr 2024 poll	48	40	18	9	0	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Roy Morgan[56] 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll	45	31	16	14	7	7	120	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[57] 2–4 Apr 2024 poll	47	32	18	9	8	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[58] 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll	45	27	19	15	9	5	120	National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Talbot Mills[59] 1–10 Feb 2024 poll	47	35	15	9	8	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[60] 1–7 Feb 2024 poll	49	34	11	17	6	6***	123	National–ACT (66)
Roy Morgan[61] 8–28 Jan 2024 poll	49	28	20	10	7	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Roy Morgan[62] Dec 2023 poll	46	28	20	12	8	8**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Curia[63] 3–5 Dec 2023 poll	46	36	14	8	10	6	120	National–NZ First–ACT (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[64] 1–6 Nov 2023 poll	46	35	17	10	8	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
2023 election result[65] 14 Oct 2023	48	34	15	11	8	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (67)

* indicates an overhang seat

1. Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

Potential four-year-term referendum

A potential four-year-term referendum might be held during the election.^[66][67]

Notes

1. Got 0.24% of the party vote in 2023 election
2. Got 0.07% of the party vote in 2023 election
3. Got 1.21% of the party vote in 2023 election
4. Got 0.05% of the party vote in 2023 election
5. Got 0.34% of the party vote in 2023 election
6. As part of Freedoms New Zealand