Opinion polling for the 2026 New Zealand general election

Eight polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the 2026 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Radio New Zealand (RNZ) conducted by Reid Research,^[1] along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its principal, David Farrar.^[2] The sample size, margin of error, and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current parliament was elected on 14 October 2023. The next election is to be held no later than 19 December 2026.

Party vote

The parties shown in this section are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and Opportunities (TOP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this section.

Graphical summary

Graph of opinion polls by party

Graph of opinion polls by party, minor parties only (parties polling between 1% and 15%)

Opinion polls grouped by main party blocs: Labour, Greens and Māori as the left bloc and National, ACT and New Zealand First as the right bloc

Table of polls

Date[a]	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	GRN	ACT	NZF	TPM	TOP	Others	Lead
3–7 Dec 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	30	31.6	10.8	8.9	8.1	3.1	1.6	6[b]	1.6
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2025	1 News–Verian	1,007	36	35	7	10	9	0.6	0.4	2.4[c]	1
27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan	829	33	28	14.5	8	9	2	2.5	3	5
16 Nov 2025	Qiulae Wong becomes leader of The Opportunity Party.[3]
10 Nov 2025	Tākuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi are expelled from Te Pāti Māori.[4]
1–10 Nov 2025	Talbot Mills	1000	33	38	9	7	8	2.4	–	–	5
2–6 Nov 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	30.2	33.3	9.2	8.6	9.1	3.3	1.2	5.1[d]	3.1
29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan	857	32	30.5	12	8	9.5	2.5	2.5	3	1.5
1–10 Oct 2025	Talbot Mills	1,097	29	35	10	8	12	4	–	–	6
4–8 Oct 2025	1 News–Verian	1,014	34	32	11	8	9	2.8	0.8	2.4[e]	2
3–8 Oct 2025	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,050	31	34	9	9	11	3	–	2	3
1–5 Oct 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	29.6	31.2	12	6.6	10.6	4.4	1.6	4[f]	1.6
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan	870	31.5	28.5	13.5	9	8	5.5	2.5	1.5	3
18 Sep 2025	Stats NZ reports that GDP fell 0.9% in the June 2025 quarter.[5]
4–12 Sep 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,000	32.5	34.3	10.9	7.2	8.7	4.1	1.4	0.9	1.8
1–10 Sep 2025	Talbot Mills	1,000	31	35	10	7	10	4	–	–	4
6 Sep 2025	Oriini Kaipara of Te Pāti Māori wins the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election.
31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33.1	33.8	10.7	6.7	8.1	4.3	1.1	2.2[g]	0.7
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan	873	29	34	13.5	10.5	7	2.5	3	0.5	5
1–10 Aug 2025	Talbot Mills	1,000	32	34	11	8	9.3	4.4	2.8	–	2
2–6 Aug 2025	1 News–Verian	1,002	34	33	10	8	9	3.7	1.3	1[h]	1
3–5 Aug 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	31.8	33.6	9.8	8.6	7.8	3.2	2.6	2.6[i]	1.8
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan	832	31	31	11.5	10.5	9.5	3.5	1	2	Tie
1–10 Jul 2025	Talbot Mills	1,090	32	35	12	8	7	3.8	–	–	3
2–6 Jul 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33.9	31.6	9.4	9.1	9.8	3.5	1.2	1.5[j]	2.3
26 Jun 2025	Te Pāti Māori MP Takutai Tarsh Kemp dies aged 50.[6]
26 May – 22 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan	812	32	28.5	11	11.5	8	5	3	1	3.5
12–15 Jun 2025	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,150	32	34	11	8	8	2	–	4	2
7–9 Jun 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33.5	34.8	8.2	9.1	6.1	3.3	1.8	3.2[k]	1.3
31 May 2025	David Seymour of the ACT party becomes Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Winston Peters of NZ First.
23–30 May 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,008	30.7	33.2	11.6	6.6	9.1	5.5	2.2	1.1[l]	2.5
24–28 May 2025	1 News–Verian	1,002	34	29	12	8	8	3.7	1.3	3.9[m]	5
28 Apr – 25 May 2025	Roy Morgan	799	31.5	29	11.5	12	6.5	4.5	3	2	2.5
22 May 2025	Budget 2025 is delivered.
30 Apr – 4 May 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	34.6	33.2	9.1	9.5	7.4	3.9	0.5	1.8[n]	1.4
24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025	Roy Morgan	829	31	28.5	14	9	9	4.5	2.5	1.5	2.5
29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025	1 News–Verian	1,000	36	32	10	9	7	3.4	2.1	1.3[o]	4
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33.5	29.8	11	10	7.4	4.3	1.5	1.4[p]	3.7
21–27 Mar 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,000	32.9	32.3	10	9.4	7.2	5	1.8	–	0.6
24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025	Roy Morgan	888	32.5	27.5	14.5	7.5	7	5.5	4	1.5	5
1–10 Mar 2025	Talbot Mills	1,003	31	34	10	10	6.1	4.4	–	–	3
2–4 Mar 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33.6	34.1	10	7.7	5.1	6.5	0.5	2.5[q]	0.5
27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025	Roy Morgan	888	30.5	29	15.5	11	6	3	2.5	2.5	1.5
3–7 Feb 2025	1 News–Verian	1,002	34	33	10	9	5	3.7	1.9	3.6[r]	1
2–4 Feb 2025	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	31.9	31.3	13.2	10	6.4	4.4	0.5	2.2[s]	0.6
7–27 Jan 2025	Talbot Mills	1,049	33	34	12	9	5.2	4.6	–	–	1
2–26 Jan 2025	Roy Morgan	885	32.5	28.5	11.5	9	8.5	6.5	1.5	2	4
9–13 Jan 2025	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	29.6	30.9	9.5	10.8	8.1	5.3	2.1	3.7[t]	1.3
25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024	Roy Morgan	885	31	26	13.5	13	7.5	5.5	1	2.5	5
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024	1 News–Verian	1,006	37	29	10	8	6	7	1.5	2[u]	8
1–3 Dec 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	34.2	26.9	8.3	13	5.4	5.5	1.1	2.2[v]	7.3
22–28 Nov 2024	Labour–Talbot Mills		31	32	10	10	6	7	–	–	1
26–27 Nov 2024	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,150	34	31	13	8	6	4	–	–	3
28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024	Roy Morgan	866	28.5	28	13.5	9	6.5	9	3.5	2	0.5
10–19 Nov 2024	Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against the Treaty Principles Bill.
6–10 Nov 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	38.8	31.5	9.3	8.5	6.5	2.5	0.9	2.1	7.3
1–10 Nov 2024	Talbot Mills		34	33	10	10	7	3.3	–	–	1
23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024	Roy Morgan	883	31	29	14	9	7	5	2	3	2
5–9 Oct 2024	1 News–Verian	1,000	37	29	12	8	5	3.8	2.6	2.3[w]	8
3–7 Oct 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	34.9	30.3	10.4	9.7	7.6	3	2.5	1.6	4.6
26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024	Roy Morgan	902	37.5	23	14	10	7.5	4	2.5	1.5	14.5
8–10 Sep 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	39	26.7	11	8.8	6.8	5	1.1	2.4	12.3
1–10 Sep 2024	Talbot Mills		37	32	10	8	6.1	3.9	–	–	5
29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024	Roy Morgan	898	36	26.5	13	9.5	7.5	3.5	2.5	1.5	9.5
10–14 Aug 2024	1 News–Verian	1,001	38	30	11	7	6	4.2	1.1	2.8[x]	8
24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024	Roy Morgan	930	32.5	24	14	11	6.5	6	4.5	1.5	8.5
4–8 Jul 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37.6	25.9	12.5	9.1	7.3	3.5	2.4	1.8[y]	11.7
27 May – 23 Jun 2024	Roy Morgan	930	35	27.5	14.5	9	5.5	3.5	2.5	2.5	7.5
15–19 Jun 2024	1 News–Verian	1,002	38	29	13	7	6	3.3	1.5	2.1[z]	9
4–6 Jun 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	35.4	29.4	12.7	9.7	5.6	4.0	0.8	2.4[aa]	6
30 May 2024	Budget 2024 is delivered.
22 Apr – 19 May 2024	Roy Morgan	925	33.5	30	14	9.5	5.5	3	3	1.5	3.5
1–10 May 2024	Talbot Mills		35	32	–	–	–	–	–	–	3
5–7 May 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37.3	30	10.2	9.4	5.5	3.1	1.4	3.1[ab]	7.3
30 Apr 2024	Labour–Talbot Mills		34	33	12	7	6	4	–	–	1
20–24 Apr 2024	1 News–Verian	1,000	36	30	14	7	4.2	3.7	1.2	3.7[ac]	6
25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024	Roy Morgan	934	36.5	24.5	13	11	5.5	5.5	2	2	12
2–4 Apr 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37.1	25.7	14.6	7.2	6.3	4.6	1.6	3[ad]	11.4
26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024	Roy Morgan	931	38	23	13.5	11.5	6.5	3.5	2.5	1	15
1–10 Mar 2024	Talbot Mills	1,000+	38	28	14	8	6	–	–	–	10
10 Mar 2024	Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[7]
3–5 Mar 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37.4	25.3	11.3	10	7.4	2.5	2.1	4[ae]	12.1
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024	Roy Morgan	935	35.5	21.5	15.5	12	7.5	4	2.5	1.5	14
21 Feb 2024	Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49.[8]
10–14 Feb 2024	1 News–Verian	1,002	38	28	12	8	6	3.7	1.9	2.6[af]	10
1–10 Feb 2024	Talbot Mills		38	29	12	7	6.2	4.9	1.4	–	9
1–7 Feb 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	39.6	27.9	9	13.7	5	2.3	–	2.5	11.7
30 Jan 2024	James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024.[9]
8–28 Jan 2024	Roy Morgan	947	38	22	15.5	7.5	6	4.5	4.5	2	16
8–10 Jan 2024	Curia	1,000	41	28.4	9.5	7.8	5.6	3.6	–	–	12.6
27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023	Roy Morgan	947	36	22	15.5	9.5	6	5	4	2	14
3–5 Dec 2023	Curia	–	36.5	28.8	10.8	6.2	8.1	5	–	4.6	7.7
3 Dec 2023	Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party.[10]
27 Nov 2023	Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023	Roy Morgan	920	37.5	21	12.5	12.5	8	2.5	3.5	2.5[ag]	16.5
1–6 Nov 2023	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37	28.3	13.8	8.1	6	3.4	2.9	3.7[ah]	8.7
14 Oct 2023	2023 election result	N/A	38.08	26.92	11.61	8.64	6.09	3.08	2.22	3.36	11.16
Date[a]	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	GRN	ACT	NZF	TPM	TOP	Others	Lead

Preferred prime minister

Graphical summary

Preferred prime minister polling table

Date[a]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Luxon	Hipkins	Swarbrick	Seymour	Peters	Lead
3–7 Dec 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	19.7	17.8	7.6	6	8.5	1.9
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2025	1 News–Verian	1,007	23	21	5	5	9	2
1–10 Nov 2025	Talbot Mills		22	26	–	–	–	4
2–6 Nov 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	20.8	20.6	4.1	7.7	8.5	0.2
1–10 Oct 2025	Talbot Mills	1,097	21	24	–	–	–	3
4–8 Oct 2025	1 News–Verian	1,014	21	18	6	5	8	3
3–8 Oct 2025	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,050	36	45	–	–	–	9
1–5 Oct 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	19.8	20.9	6.3	4	9.9	1.1
4–12 Sep 2025	RNZ-Reid Research	1,000	19.6	23	6.5	5.8	8.9	3.4
1–10 Sep 2025	Talbot Mills	1,000	20	25	–	–	–	5
31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	21.7	17.7	8.8	3.7	10.9	4
1–10 Aug 2025	Talbot Mills	1,000	21	26	–	–	–	5
2–6 Aug 2025	1 News–Verian	1,002	20	19	4	4	7	1
3–5 Aug 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	20.2	20.2	8	6.2	8.2	Tie
1–10 Jul 2025	Talbot Mills	1,090	24	24	–	–	–	Tie
2–6 Jul 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	19.7	19.6	7	5.7	9.3	0.1
12–15 Jun 2025	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,150	37	43	–	–	–	6
7–9 Jun 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	20.3	18.5	5.6	6	8	1.8
31 May 2025	David Seymour of the ACT party becomes Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Winston Peters of NZ First.
23–30 May 2025	RNZ-Reid Research	1,008	18.8	23.2	6.9	6.4	8.9	4.4
24–28 May 2025	1 News-Verian	1,002	23	19	5	4	6	4
30 Apr – 4 May 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	24.5	20	5	6.7	8.1	4.5
29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025	1 News–Verian	1,000	23	20	4	3	7	3
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	21.9	18.9	4.2	8	12.8	3
21–27 Mar 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,000	21.9	20.9	6.1	6.8	7.9	1
1–10 Mar 2025	Talbot Mills	1,003	21	24	–	–	–	3
2–4 Mar 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	20.3	20.7	4.8	5	8.6	0.4
3–7 Feb 2025	1 News–Verian	1,002	22	17	6	6	5	5
2–4 Feb 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	20.7	17.6	8.9	6.4	8	3.1
7–27 Jan 2025	Talbot Mills	1,049	24	25	–	–	–	1
9–13 Jan 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	24.5	15.3	8.5	6.3	8.8	9.2
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024	1 News–Verian	1,006	24	15	6	6	5	9
1–3 Dec 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	27.1	19.9	4.5	5.8	5.8	7.2
22–28 Nov 2024	Labour–Talbot Mills		22.1	22.7	–	–	–	0.6
26–27 Nov 2024	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,150	41	42	–	–	–	1
6–10 Nov 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	26.5	15.5	5.2	7.4	6.3	11
1–10 Nov 2024	Talbot Mills		25	23	–	–	–	2
5–9 Oct 2024	1 News–Verian	1,000	25	15	6	4	6	10
3–7 Oct 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	27.7	16.9	9.9	7.4	8.4	10.8
8–10 Sep 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	32.7	12.6	7.2	5.2	6.7	20.1
1–10 Sep 2024	Talbot Mills		26	22	–	–	–	4
10–14 Aug 2024	1 News–Verian	1,001	28	18	7	4	5	10
4–8 Jul 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	34.5	18.7	10.9	5.6	5.6	15.8
15–19 Jun 2024	1 News–Verian	1,002	23	18	6	4	4	5
4–6 Jun 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	25.4	20.2	8.6	5	3.8	5.2
1–10 May 2024	Talbot Mills		25	25	–	–	–	Tie
20–24 Apr 2024	1 News–Verian	1,000	23	16	6	5	4	7
10 Mar 2024	Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[7]
1–10 Mar 2024	Talbot Mills	1,000+	24	23	–	–	–	1
10–14 Feb 2024	1 News–Verian	1,002	25	15	4	4	6	10
1–10 Feb 2024	Talbot Mills		27	23	–	–	–	4
1–7 Feb 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	29	19	6	10	6	10
8–10 Jan 2024	Curia	1,000	31	13	–	–	–	18
3–5 Dec 2023	Curia		30	22	–	–	–	8
1–6 Nov 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33	18	6.3	4	5	15

Leadership approval rating

Date[a]	Polling organisation	Sample size
			Luxon			Hipkins			Seymour			Peters
			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
3–7 Dec 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000			–13			–7			–24			–2
2–6 Nov 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000			–10			–2			–11			+2
4–8 Oct 2025	1 News–Verian	1,014	38%	52%	–14	42%	41%	+1	–			–
3–8 Oct 2025	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,050	27%	51%	–24			=			–27	–
4–12 Sep 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,000			–15.2			+3	–			–
12–15 Jun 2025	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,150	31%	49%	–18	36%	32%	+4			–12			–11
7–9 Jun 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000			–8.6			+3.2			–17.6			+1
23–30 May 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,008	35.7%	45.5%	–9.8	39.1	34%	+5.1	–			–
29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025	1 News–Verian	1,000	40%	47%	–7	49%	33%	+16	–			–
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000			–6			+2			–18			–4
2–4 Mar 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000			–10			+4			–28			–1
21–27 Mar 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,000			–3.9			+12.3	–			–
26–27 Nov 2024	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,150	29%	46%	–16	34%	34%	=	23%	47%	–24	25%	46%	–22
8–10 Sep 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	41%	34%	+7	31%	41%	–10			–14			–9
15–19 Jun 2024	1 News–Verian	1,002	40%	45%	–5	47%	34%	+13	–			–
4–6 Jun 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000			–5			+3			–18			–19
5–7 May 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000			+8			-1			–7			–5
2–4 Apr 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000			-7			-6			–11			–18
3–5 Mar 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	39%	44%	-5	40%	38	+2			–8			–12
1–7 Feb 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	44%	33	+11	40%	35	+4			–8			–22
8–10 Jan 2024	Curia	1,000	42%	37	+5	37%	34	+3			–14			–24
3–5 Dec 2023	Curia		39%	40%	-1	42%	33	+9			–19			–36

Government approval rating

Date[a]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Right direction	Wrong direction	Do not know	Lead
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan	870	39	49.5	11.5	10.5
4–12 Sep 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,000	34	48.9	17.1	14.9
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan	873	37	53.5	9.5	16.5
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan	832	37	53.5	9.5	16.5
26 May – 22 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan	812	41	46	13	5
12–15 Jun 2025	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,150	35	49	16	14
23–30 May 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,008	37.8	46.6	15.6	8.8
28 Apr – 25 May 2025	Roy Morgan	799	35	54.5	10.5	19.5
30 Apr – 4 May 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33.3	46	20.7	12.7
24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025	Roy Morgan	829	40.5	43	13.5	2.5
21–27 Mar 2025	RNZ–Reid Research	1,000	43.5	40.6	15.8	2.9
24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025	Roy Morgan	888	32.5	52.5	15	20
27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025	Roy Morgan	888	39	49	12	10
3–7 Feb 2025	1 News–Verian	1,002	39	50	11	11
2–4 Feb 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	34.2	50	15.8	15.8
2–26 Jan 2025	Roy Morgan	885	37.5	48.5	14	11
9–13 Jan 2025	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	39	53	12	14
25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024	Roy Morgan	885	35	52.5	12.5	17.5
26–27 Nov 2024	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,150	35	48	17	13
28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024	Roy Morgan	866	46.5	42.5	11	4
1–10 Nov 2024	Talbot Mills		40	46	14	6
23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024	Roy Morgan	883	36.5	50.5	13	14
26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024	Roy Morgan	902	39	46.5	14.5	7.5
1–10 Sep 2024	Talbot Mills		42	47	11	5
29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024	Roy Morgan	898	43	45.5	11.5	2.5
24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024	Roy Morgan	930	38	48	14	10
4–8 Jul 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	47.3	33.9	18.8	13.4
27 May – 23 Jun 2024	Roy Morgan	930	35.5	52.5	12	17
22 Apr – 19 May 2024	Roy Morgan	925	43	47	10	4
1–10 May 2024	Talbot Mills		38	52	10	14
5–7 May 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	45.1	42.6	12.3	2.5
25 Mar–21 Apr 2024	Roy Morgan	934	34.5	49	16.5	14.5
26 Feb–24 Mar 2024	Roy Morgan	931	35	54	11	19
1–10 Mar 2024	Talbot Mills	1,000+	40	48	12	8
3–5 Mar 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	39.5	43.4	17	3.9
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024	Roy Morgan	935	41.5	43.5	15	2
1–10 Feb 2024	Talbot Mills		43	41	16	2
1–7 Feb 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	39.7	35.2	25.1	4.5
8–28 Jan 2024	Roy Morgan	947	42	41	17	1
27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023	Roy Morgan	947	38	45	17	7
30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023	Roy Morgan	920	36.5	46	17.5	9.5
9–12 Nov 2023	Guardian Essential	1,193	29	48	23	19
1–6 Nov 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	29	49	22	20

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). However, projections that show the National Party winning fewer than 44 total seats (44 being the number of electorate seats currently held by National) assume that National will lose at least enough electorates to avoid an overhang. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.^[11]

Source	Seats in parliament[i]							Likely government formation
	NAT	LAB	GRN	ACT	NZF	TPM	Total
1 News–Verian[12] 29 Nov–3 Dec 2025 poll	44	43	9	12	11	4***	123	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Roy Morgan[13] 27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025 poll	42	36	18	10	11	4*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Talbot Mills[14] 1–10 Nov 2025 poll	40	47	11	9	10	4*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[15] 2–6 Nov 2025 poll	39	42	12	11	12	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Roy Morgan[16] 29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025 poll	41	39	15	10	12	6***	123	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Talbot Mills[17] 1–10 Oct 2025 poll	35	43	12	10	15	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
1 News–Verian[18] 4–8 Oct 2025 poll	42	40	14	9	12	6***	123	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
The Post–Freshwater Strategy[19] 3–8 Oct 2025 poll	38	42	11	11	14	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[20] 1–5 Oct 2025 poll	38	40	15	8	13	6	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Roy Morgan[21] 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 poll	39	36	17	11	10	7	120	Hung parliament
RNZ–Reid Research[22] 4–12 Sep 2025 poll	40	42	13	9	11	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Talbot Mills[23] 1–10 Sep 2025 poll	39	43	12	9	12	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[24] 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 poll	42	42	13	8	10	6	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Roy Morgan[25] 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 poll	36	42	17	13	9	6***	123	Labour–Greens–Māori (65)
Talbot Mills[26] 1–10 Aug 2025 poll	39	42	13	10	11	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
1 News–Verian[27] 2–6 Aug 2025 poll	42	40	12	10	11	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[28] 3–5 Aug 2025 poll	40	43	12	11	10	6**	122	Hung parliament
Roy Morgan[29] 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 poll	38	39	14	13	12	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Talbot Mills[30] 1–10 Jul 2025 poll	39	42	15	10	9	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[31] 2–6 Jul 2025 poll	42	39	12	11	12	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan[32] 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 poll	40	37	14	15	8	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[33] 7–9 Jun 2025 poll	42	44	10	12	8	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
RNZ–Reid Research[34] 23–30 May 2025 poll	38	42	14	8	11	7	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (63)
1 News–Verian[35] 24–28 May 2025 poll	43	37	15	10	10	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[36] 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 poll	40	37	14	15	8	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[37] 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 poll	42	41	11	12	9	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[38] 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 poll	39	36	17	11	11	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (61)
1 News–Verian[39] 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 poll	44	40	12	11	9	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[40] 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 poll	42	37	14	13	9	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
RNZ–Reid Research[41] 21–27 Mar 2025 poll	41	40	12	12	9	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Roy Morgan[42] 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 poll	41	35	18	10	9	7	120	Hung parliament
Talbot Mills[43] 1–10 Mar 2025 poll	39	43	13	12	8	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[44] 2–4 Mar 2025 poll	42	42	12	10	6	8	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
Roy Morgan[45] 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 poll	38	36	20	14	8	6**	122	Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian[46] 3–7 Feb 2025 poll	43	42	13	11	6	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[47] 2–4 Feb 2025 poll	39	39	16	12	8	6	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Talbot Mills[48] 7–27 Jan 2025 poll	40	42	15	11	6	6	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (63)
Roy Morgan[49] 2–26 Jan 2025 poll	40	36	14	11	11	8	120	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[50] 9–13 Jan 2025 poll	38	39	12	14	10	7	120	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Roy Morgan[51] 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 poll	39	32	17	16	9	7	120	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
1 News–Verian[52] 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 poll	46	36	12	10	7	9	120	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[53] 1–3 Dec 2024 poll	44	34	11	17	7	7	120	National–ACT (61)
Labour–Talbot Mills[54] 22–28 Nov 2024 poll	39	40	12	12	8	9	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
The Post–Freshwater Strategy[55] 26–27 Nov 2024 poll	42	39	16	10	8	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Roy Morgan[56] 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 poll	37	36	17	11	8	11	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[57] 6–10 Nov 2024 poll	48	39	11	11	8	6***	123	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[58] 1–10 Nov 2024 poll	42	41	12	12	9	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[59] 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 poll	39	37	18	11	9	6	120	Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
1 News–Verian[60] 5–9 Oct 2024 poll	47	37	15	10	6	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[61] 3–7 Oct 2024 poll	44	38	13	12	9	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan[62] 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll	47	29	17	13	9	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[63] 8–10 Sep 2024 poll	48	33	14	11	8	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[64] 1–10 Sep 2024 poll	46	39	12	10	8	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[65] 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll	45	33	16	12	9	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
1 News–Verian[66] 10–14 Aug 2024 poll	49	38	14	8	7	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[67] 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll	41	31	18	14	8	8	120	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[68] 4–8 Jul 2024 poll	47	33	16	11	9	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Roy Morgan[69] 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll	44	35	18	11	7	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (62)
1 News–Verian[70] 15–19 Jun 2024 poll	47	36	16	9	8	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[71] 4–6 Jun 2024 poll	44	36	16	12	7	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[72] 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll	42	38	17	12	7	6**	122	Hung parliament
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[73] 5–7 May 2024 poll	47	37	13	12	7	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Talbot Mills[74] 30 Apr 2024 poll	42	41	15	9	8	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian[75] 20–24 Apr 2024 poll	48	40	18	9	0	6*	121	Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Roy Morgan[76] 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll	45	31	16	14	7	7	120	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[77] 2–4 Apr 2024 poll	47	32	18	9	8	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[78] 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll	45	27	19	15	9	5	120	National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Talbot Mills[79] 1–10 Feb 2024 poll	47	35	15	9	8	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[80] 1–7 Feb 2024 poll	49	34	11	17	6	6***	123	National–ACT (66)
Roy Morgan[81] 8–28 Jan 2024 poll	49	28	20	10	7	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Roy Morgan[82] Dec 2023 poll	46	28	20	12	8	8**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Curia[83] 3–5 Dec 2023 poll	46	36	14	8	10	6	120	National–ACT-NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[84] 1–6 Nov 2023 poll	46	35	17	10	8	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
2023 election result[85] 14 Oct 2023	48	34	15	11	8	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (67)

* indicates an overhang seat

1. Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

• Sixth National Government of New Zealand
• 2023 New Zealand general election
• Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand

Notes

1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
2. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1%
   New Conservatives Party 1%
   Vision NZ 0.3%
3. Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.4%
   Women's Rights Party 0.2%
   NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
   New Conservatives Party 0.1%
   NewZeal 0.1%
   Vision NZ 0%
   Animal Justice Party 0%
4. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.5%
   New Conservatives Party 1.2%
   Vision NZ 0.4%
5. Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
   Women's Rights Party 0.5%
   NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
   New Conservatives Party 0.3%
   NewZeal 0.2%
   Vision NZ 0.2%
   Animal Justice Party 0.1%
6. Freedoms New Zealand 2.3%
   New Zealand Loyal 1%
   Vision NZ 0.6%
7. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.8%
   Vision NZ 0.6%
   New Conservatives Party 0.3%
8. NewZeal 0.4%
   Women's Rights Party 0.4%
   New Conservatives Party 0.2%
   Animal Justice Party 0.1%
   Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
   NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1%
9. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
   Vision NZ 0.4%
10. New Conservatives Party 0.5%
    NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1%
11. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
    New Conservatives Party 0.7%
    Vision NZ 0.6%
12. New Conservatives Party 0.8%
13. NewZeal 1.3% NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1% Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.6% New Conservatives Party 0.4% Vision NZ 0.2% Animal Justice Party 0.1%
14. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
    Vision NZ 0.4%
15. Freedoms New Zealand 0.5%
    NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
    Vision NZ 0.2%
    Animal Justice Party 0.2%
16. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1%
    New Conservatives Party 0.4%
17. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.6%
    Vision NZ 0.4%
18. Freedoms New Zealand 1%
    Women's Rights Party 1%
    Vision NZ 0.5%
    NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.3%
    Animal Justice Party 0.2%
    New Conservatives Party 0.2%
    NewZeal 0.2%
    Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
    New Nation Party 0.1%
19. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.9%
    New Conservatives Party 0.2%
20. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.7%
    Vision NZ 0.6%
21. Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
    New Conservatives Party 0.4%
    Freedoms New Zealand 0.3%
    New Nation Party 0.3%
    Vision NZ 0.3%
    Women's Rights Party 0.2%
    NewZeal 0.1%
22. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 2%
    Vision NZ 0.2%
23. NewZeal 0.6%
    Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.4%
    Animal Justice Party 0.3%
    New Conservatives Party 0.2%
    New Nation Party 0.2%
    Freedoms New Zealand 0.2%
    NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
    Vision NZ 0.2%
24. NewZeal 0.7%
    New Conservatives Party 0.5%
    Animal Justice Party 0.3%
    DemocracyNZ 0.2%
    Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.2%
    Democratic Alliance 0.1%
    Women's Rights Party 0.1%
    New Nation Party 0.1%
    NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1%
    Freedoms New Zealand 0.1%
    Others 0.4%
25. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.0%
    Others 0.8%
26. New Nation Party 0.6%
    Animal Justice Party 0.5%
    NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
    Vision NZ 0.2%
    New Zealand Loyal 0.2%
    Freedoms New Zealand 0.1%
    New Conservatives Party 0.1%
    NewZeal 0.1%
    Women's Rights Party 0.1%
27. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.3%
    Vision NZ 0.5%
    New Conservatives Party 0.1%
    Others 0.5%
28. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
    Others 2.0%
29. New Zealand Loyal 0.9%
    NewZeal 0.6%
    Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
    New Nation Party 0.4%
    Freedoms New Zealand 0.3%
    New Conservatives Party 0.3%
    Animal Justice Party 0.2%
    DemocracyNZ 0.2%
    Vision NZ 0.1%
    Others 0.2%
30. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.5%
    DemocracyNZ 0.3%
    Vision NZ 0.2%
    New Conservatives Party 0.2%
    Others 0.8%
31. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.3%
    Vision NZ 0.8%
    DemocracyNZ 0.4%
    Others 1.5%
32. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
    New Zealand Loyal 0.4%
    Animal Justice Party 0.3%
    New Conservatives Party 0.3%
    Women's Rights Party 0.3%
    NewZeal 0.3%
    DemocracyNZ 0.3%
    Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
    Vision NZ 0.1%
    Others 0.1%
33. New Conservatives Party 0.5%
    Others 2%
34. New Conservatives Party 0.7%
    Vision NZ 0.3%