2024 United States presidential election in Maryland

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maryland took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[2]

2024 United States presidential election in Maryland

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	72.84%[1] 1.79 pp
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,902,577 1,035,550 Percentage 62.62% 34.08%
County results Congressional district results Legislative district results Precinct results Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100%
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Due to the progressive and culturally Northeastern influence of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area—home to the majority of Maryland's population and most of Maryland's significant African American population—Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double-digit margins since 1992. While regions like Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore remain rural, conservative, culturally Southern, and predominantly white, their impact is outweighed by the state's urban centers. In 2020, Joe Biden from neighboring Delaware won Maryland by 33 points. Maryland was widely expected to remain a safe blue state in 2024.^[3]

Harris comfortably won the state by about 28.5%, but by a margin 4 points lower than Joe Biden. Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to surpass one million votes in Maryland since George W. Bush in 2004. Larry Hogan, who was concurrently running for the U.S. Senate, ran 17 points ahead of Trump.

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without winning Frederick County since Abraham Lincoln in 1860.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Maryland Democratic presidential primary

The Maryland Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024,^[4] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Democratic primary, May 14, 2024^[5]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	591,523	87.1%	95		95
Uncommitted	66,168	9.8%
Marianne Williamson	12,935	1.9%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	8,188	1.2%
Total:	678,814	100.0%	95	23	118

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Maryland Republican presidential primary

The Maryland Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024,^[4] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Republican primary, May 14, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	205,996	77.7%	37	0	37
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	56,506	21.3%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	2,607	1.0%	0	0	0
Total:	265,109	100.0%	37	0	37

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[6]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[7]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis[10]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN[11]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist[12]	Safe D	June 12, 2024
538[13]	Solid D	June 11, 2024
RCP[14]	Solid D	June 26, 2024
NBC News[15]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Morning Consult[16]	October 22–31, 2024	490 (LV)	± 5.0%	64%	31%	5%
ActiVote[17]	October 6–30, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	64%	37%	–
Braun Research[18][A]	October 17–22, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.6%	61%	33%	7%[b]
		1,000 (RV)	± 3.6%	59%	34%	7%[c]
Emerson College[19]	October 19–21, 2024	865 (LV)	± 3.2%	64%	34%	2%
				63%	33%	4%[d]
Morning Consult[16]	October 10–15, 2024	490 (LV)	± 4.0%	64%	31%	4%
ActiVote[20]	September 8 – October 14, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	63%	37%	–
Braun Research[21][A]	September 19–23, 2024	1,012 (LV)	± 3.5%	64%	32%	5%[e]
		1,012 (RV)	± 3.5%	62%	32%	6%[f]
Morning Consult[16]	September 9–18, 2024	516 (LV)	± 4.0%	61%	33%	6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[22]	September 16–17, 2024	543 (RV)	± 4.2%	64%	33%	3%
Emerson College[23]	September 12–13, 2024	890 (LV)	± 3.2%	65%	33%	2%
				63%	32%	5%
Morning Consult[16]	August 30 – September 8, 2024	516 (LV)	± 4.0%	62%	34%	4%
Gonzales Research[24]	August 24–30, 2024	820 (RV)	± 3.5%	56%	35%	10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[25][B]	August 14–20, 2024	700 (LV)	± 4.0%	64%	32%	4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Jill Stein Green	Undecided
Chism Strategies[26]	October 28–30, 2024	510 (LV)	± 4.34%	56%	33%	0%	0%	1%	10%[g]
YouGov[27][h]	October 23–27, 2024	500 (LV)	± 5.2%	61%	34%	–	0%	2%	5%
University of Maryland, Baltimore County[28]	September 23–28, 2024	863 (LV)	± 3.3%	57%	35%	2%	0%	1%	5%[i]
Braun Research[21][A]	September 19–23, 2024	1,012 (LV)	± 3.5%	63%	31%	–	1%	1%	5%[j]
		1,012 (RV)	± 3.5%	61%	31%	–	1%	1%	6%[k]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[25][B]	August 14–20, 2024	700 (LV)	± 4.0%	59%	29%	5%	1%	1%	5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[29]	June 19–20, 2024	635 (V)	± 3.9%	56%	30%	15%
Emerson College[30]	May 6–8, 2024	1,115 (RV)	± 2.9%	56%	35%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[31][C]	May 6–7, 2024	719 (V)	± 3.7%	60%	32%	8%
Emerson College[32]	February 12–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	55%	32%	13%
Gonzales Research[33]	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	53%	32%	15%
Gonzales Research[34]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	30%	13%
Gonzales Research[35]	May 30 – June 6, 2023	841 (RV)	± 3.5%	52%	35%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College[30]	May 6–8, 2024	1,115 (RV)	± 2.9%	50%	33%	6%	4%	1%	6%
Emerson College[32]	February 12−13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	32%	6%	1%	1%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research[33]	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	45%	28%	18%	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research[33]	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	36%	14%
Gonzales Research[34]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	36%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research[34]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	35%	9%
Gonzales Research[35]	May 30 – June 6, 2023	841 (RV)	± 3.5%	51%	37%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Vivek Ramaswamy Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research[34]	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	29%	15%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Maryland^[36][37]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	1,902,577	62.62%	−2.74%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	1,035,550	34.08%	+1.93%
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	33,134	1.09%	+0.57%
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	28,819	0.95%	N/A
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	15,570	0.51%	−0.59%
	Write-in		22,684	0.75%	+0.08%
Total votes			3,038,334	100.00%

By county

County	Kamala Harris Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Allegany	9,231	28.72%	22,141	68.90%	765	2.38%	-12,910	-40.18%	32,137
Anne Arundel	171,945	55.19%	128,892	41.37%	10,735	3.45%	43,053	13.82%	311,572
Baltimore	249,958	60.53%	149,560	36.22%	13,397	3.24%	100,398	24.31%	412,915
Baltimore City	195,109	84.55%	27,984	12.13%	7,661	3.32%	167,125	72.42%	230,754
Calvert	23,438	43.25%	29,361	54.18%	1,392	2.57%	-5,923	-10.93%	54,191
Caroline	4,860	29.76%	11,053	67.69%	417	2.55%	-6,193	-37.93%	16,330
Carroll	36,867	35.91%	62,273	60.66%	3,511	3.42%	-25,406	-24.75%	102,651
Cecil	17,628	33.37%	33,871	64.11%	1,332	2.52%	-16,243	-30.74%	52,831
Charles	63,454	68.90%	26,145	28.39%	2,498	2.71%	37,309	40.51%	92,097
Dorchester	6,954	41.46%	9,390	55.99%	428	2.55%	-2,436	-14.53%	16,772
Frederick	82,409	52.79%	68,753	44.04%	4,952	3.17%	13,656	8.75%	156,114
Garrett	3,456	21.82%	11,983	75.66%	399	2.52%	-8,527	-53.84%	15,838
Harford	62,453	41.61%	83,050	55.33%	4,587	3.06%	-20,597	-13.72%	150,090
Howard	124,764	68.44%	49,425	27.11%	8,102	4.44%	75,339	41.33%	182,291
Kent	5,251	47.19%	5,561	49.97%	316	2.84%	-310	-2.78%	11,128
Montgomery	386,581	74.45%	112,637	21.69%	20,003	3.85%	273,944	52.76%	519,221
Prince George's	347,038	85.90%	45,008	11.14%	11,963	2.96%	302,030	74.76%	404,009
Queen Anne's	11,273	34.85%	20,200	62.45%	874	2.70%	-8,927	-27.60%	32,347
St. Mary's	23,531	39.91%	33,582	56.96%	1,841	3.12%	-10,051	-17.05%	58,954
Somerset	4,054	39.99%	5,805	57.27%	278	2.74%	-1,751	-17.28%	10,137
Talbot	11,119	48.70%	11,125	48.73%	586	2.57%	-6	-0.03%	22,830
Washington	27,260	37.17%	44,054	60.07%	2,018	2.75%	-16,794	-22.90%	73,332
Wicomico	21,513	45.86%	24,065	51.30%	1,334	2.84%	-2,552	-5.44%	46,912
Worcester	12,431	37.81%	19,632	59.71%	818	2.49%	-7,201	-21.90%	32,881
Totals	1,902,577	62.62%	1,035,550	34.08%	100,207	3.30%	867,027	28.54%	3,038,334

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Kent (county seat and largest municipality: Chestertown)
• Talbot (county seat and largest municipality: Easton)

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

Harris won 7 of 8 congressional districts.^[38]

District	Harris	Trump	Representative
1st	40.17%	56.99%	Andy Harris
2nd	57.48%	39.17%	Dutch Ruppersberger (118th Congress)
			Johnny Olszewski (119th Congress)
3rd	59.84%	36.30%	John Sarbanes (118th Congress)
			Sarah Elfreth (119th Congress)
4th	85.00%	11.77%	Glenn Ivey
5th	65.11%	32.03%	Steny Hoyer
6th	51.25%	45.51%	David Trone (118th Congress)
			April McClain Delaney (119th Congress)
7th	77.68%	19.12%	Kweisi Mfume
8th	76.01%	20.17%	Jamie Raskin

See also

• 2024 Maryland elections
• United States presidential elections in Maryland
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
3. "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
4. "Someone else" with 2%; "Undecided" with 2%
5. "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
6. "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
7. "Someone else" with 4%
8. Poll sponsored by the University of Maryland, College Park.
9. "Some other candidate" with 2%
10. "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
11. "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, College Park
2. Poll commissioned by AARP
3. This poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Biden.

References

1. "Official 2024 Presidential General Election turnout" (PDF). Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
2. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
3. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
4. "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
5. "Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. May 21, 2024. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
6. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
7. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
12. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
13. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
14. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
15. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
16. Morning Consult
17. ActiVote
18. Braun Research
19. Emerson College
20. ActiVote
21. Braun Research
22. Public Policy Polling (D)
23. Emerson College
24. Gonzales Research
25. Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
26. Chism Strategies
27. YouGov
28. University of Maryland, Baltimore County
29. "Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11". Public Policy Polling. June 24, 2024.
30. Mumford, Camille (May 9, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Alsobrooks 42%, Trone 41%". Emerson Polling.
31. "Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF).
32. Mumford, Camille (February 15, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Former Gov. Larry Hogan Starts Strong in Election for Open Senate Seat". Emerson Polling.
33. "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
34. "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
35. Sears, Bryan P. (June 14, 2023). "Poll: Biden's independent voter trouble and a hypothetical contest against Wes Moore".
36. "Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results for President and Vice President of the United States". elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
37. "Data Files for the 2024 Presidential Election Results". elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
38. Statewide Data Breakdown by State Congressional Districts. elections.maryland.gov (Report). Archived from the original on December 9, 2024.

External links

Media related to United States presidential election in Maryland, 2024 at Wikimedia Commons