2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana

For related races, see 2024 United States House of Representatives elections.

Not to be confused with 2024 Montana House of Representatives election.

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.

2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana

← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
Both Montana seats to the United States House of Representatives
Majority party Minority party   Party Republican Democratic Last election 2 0 Seats won 2 0 Seat change Popular vote 350,361 237,496 Percentage 58.61% 39.73% Swing 5.75% 5.49%
Republican   50–60%   60–70%

District 1

2024 Montana's 1st congressional district election

← 2022 2026 →

Nominee Ryan Zinke Monica Tranel Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 168,529 143,783 Percentage 52.3% 44.6%

County results Precinct results Zinke:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tranel:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      No Votes

U.S. Representative before election Ryan Zinke Republican Elected U.S. Representative Ryan Zinke Republican

See also: Montana's 1st congressional district

The 1st district is based in mountainous Western Montana, including the cities of Missoula, Kalispell, Bozeman and Butte. The incumbent is Republican Ryan Zinke, who was elected with 49.7% of the vote in 2022.^[1] He initially had expressed interest in running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but chose not to do so.^[2]

Republican primary

Nominee

• Ryan Zinke, incumbent U.S. representative^[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Mary Todd, innkeeper and candidate for this district in 2022^[4]

Endorsements

Ryan Zinke

Executive Branch officials

• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States^[5]
• John Bolton, United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)^[6]

Organizations

• AIPAC^[7]
• National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund^[8]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Mary Todd (R)	$87,253[a]	$67,177	$20,075
Ryan Zinke (R)	$5,752,008	$3,341,562	$2,520,494
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Results

Republican primary results^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ryan Zinke (incumbent)	66,409	73.7
	Republican	Mary Todd	23,647	26.3
Total votes			90,056	100.0

Democratic primary

Nominee

• Monica Tranel, lawyer, former Olympic rower, and nominee for this district in 2022^[3]

Endorsements

Monica Tranel

U.S. representatives

• Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present)^[11]
• Annie Kuster, U.S. representative for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district (2013–present)^[12]
• Pat Ryan, U.S. representative for New York's 18th congressional district (2023–present)^[12]

Statewide officials

• Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana (2005–2013)^[13]
• Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019–present)^[14]

State legislators

• Dave Fern, state representative from the 5th district (2017–present)^[13]
• Shannon O'Brien, state senator from the 46th district (2021–present)^[15]

Organizations

• DCCC Red to Blue^[16]
• Democratic Majority for Israel^[17]
• EMILY's List^[18]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America^[19]
• League of Conservation Voters^[20]
• National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare(Post-primary)^[21]
• National Organization for Women PAC^[22]
• NewDem Action Fund^[12]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund^[23]
• Reproductive Freedom for All^[24]

Labor unions

• National Education Association^[25]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Monica Tranel (D)	$2,340,724	$826,277	$1,524,332
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Monica Tranel	59,806	100.0
Total votes			59,806	100.0

Libertarian primary

Nominee

• Dennis Hayes, remodeling contractor^[4]

Eliminated in primary

• Ernie Noble, construction worker^[4]

Results

Libertarian primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Dennis Hayes	390	65.4
	Libertarian	Ernie Noble	206	34.6
Total votes			596	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[26]	Lean R	October 4, 2024
Inside Elections[27]	Lean R	September 15, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28]	Lean R	February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[29]	Lean R	September 7, 2023
CNalysis[30]	Lean R	November 16, 2023

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Ryan Zinke (R)	Monica Tranel (D)	Dennis Hayes (L)	Undecided
Impact Research (D)[31][A]	October 14–17, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	45%	4%	5%
Guidance Polling and Strategy[32][B]	October 13–16, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	52%	44%	–	4%
Montana State University[33]	September 30 – October 16, 2024	(A)	–	44%	37%	4%	15%
Noble Predictive Insights[34][C]	September 11–14, 2024	432 (LV)	± 4.7%	49%	44%	–	7%
				47%	43%	3%	7%
DCCC (D)[35]	September 11–13, 2024	864 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	45%	–	9%[c]
Impact Research (D)[36][A]	August 26–29, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	44%	4%	5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[37][D]	August 25–29, 2024	310 (LV)	–	49%	43%	–	8%
Impact Research (D)[36][A]	May 2024	–	–	46%	42%	6%	6%
Impact Research (D)[36][A]	February 2024	–	–	52%	43%	0%	5%

Results

2024 Montana's 1st congressional district election^[38]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ryan Zinke (incumbent)	168,529	52.3
	Democratic	Monica Tranel	143,783	44.6
	Libertarian	Dennis Hayes	9,954	3.1
Total votes			322,266	100.0
	Republican hold

District 2

2024 Montana's 2nd congressional district election

← 2022 2026 →

Nominee Troy Downing John Driscoll Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 181,832 93,713 Percentage 66.0% 34.0%

County results Precinct results Downing:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Driscoll:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%

U.S. Representative before election Matt Rosendale Republican Elected U.S. Representative Troy Downing Republican

See also: Montana's 2nd congressional district

The 2nd district encompasses much of the state east of the Continental Divide, including the cities of Billings, Great Falls and Helena. The incumbent is Republican Matt Rosendale, who was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2022.^[1] He announced in February 2024 that he would run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but dropped out of the race one week later.^[39] On March 8, 2024, Rosendale announced that he would not be seeking any office in 2024.^[40]

Republican primary

Nominee

• Troy Downing, Montana State Auditor (2021–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018^[41]

Eliminated in primary

• Elsie Arntzen, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction (2017–present) and candidate for the at-large district in 2014^[42]
• Kyle Austin, pharmacist and candidate for this district in 2022^[4]
• Kenneth Bogner, President pro tempore of the Montana Senate (2023–present) from the 19th district (2019–present) and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2020^[43]
• Ric Holden, former state senator from the 1st district (1995–2003)^[44]
• Joel Krautter, former state representative from the 35th district (2019–2021)^[44]
• Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative from the at-large district (2001–2013), former Lieutenant Governor of Montana (1991–1997), and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012^[45]
• Stacy Zinn, retired DEA agent^[46]

Withdrawn

• Matt Rosendale, incumbent U.S. Representative^[40]
• Ed Walker, former state senator from the 29th district (2011–2015) and candidate for the at-large district in 2017 (remained on ballot)^[47]

Endorsements

Elsie Arntzen

U.S. representatives

• Bob Good, chair of the Freedom Caucus (2024–present) and VA-05 (2021–present)^[48]
• Harriet Hageman, WY-AL (2023–present)^[47]

Organizations

• House Freedom Fund^[49]

Ken Bogner

Executive Branch officials

• Thomas Homan, Acting Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)^[47]

Troy Downing

Executive branch officials

• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)^[50]

U.S. representatives

• Derrick Van Orden, WI-03 (2023–present)^[47]

Organizations

• With Honor Fund^[51]

Joel Krautter

Labor unions

• Montana Federation of Public Employees^[47]
• National Education Association^[25]

Declined to endorse

U.S. representatives

• Matt Rosendale, MT-02 (2021–present)^[47]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Elsie Arntzen (R)	$871,444[d]	$805,097	$66,347
Kenneth Bogner (R)	$54,359	$43,425	$10,933
Troy Downing (R)	$1,818,816[e]	$1,383,494	$435,322
Ric Holden (R)	$49,248[f]	$46,540	$2,708
Joel Krautter (R)	$76,533[g]	$67,136	$9,397
Denny Rehberg (R)	$601,991[h]	$453,928	$148,063
Stacy Zinn (R)	$41,460	$3,091	$38,369
Source: Federal Election Commission[52]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Elsie Arntzen	Kenneth Bogner	Troy Downing	Ric Holden	Denny Rehberg	Stacy Zinn	Other	Undecided
Cygnal (R)[53][E]	May 8–9, 2024	410 (LV)	± 4.8%	5%	4%	28%	2%	12%	8%	3%[i]	40%
Guidant Polling & Strategy[54][F]	April 14–17, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	10%	–	38%	–	26%	–	–	27%
Cygnal (R)[55][E]	April 15–16, 2024	415 (LV)	± 4.8%	7%	4%	21%	1%	11%	3%	3%[j]	51%
Moore Information[56][G]	February 1, 2024	500 (LV)	–	5%	3%	16%	2%	26%	2%	9%[k]	37%

Results

Results by county:

  Downing

•   20-30%
•   30-40%
•   40-50%

  Rehberg

•   20-30%

  Bogner

•   20-30%
•   30-40%
•   40-50%
•   50-60%

  Holden

•   20-30%
•   30-40%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Troy Downing	36,269	36.1
	Republican	Denny Rehberg	17,182	17.1
	Republican	Stacy Zinn	13,581	13.5
	Republican	Elsie Arntzen	9,468	9.4
	Republican	Kenneth Bogner	9,026	9.0
	Republican	Ric Holden	7,108	7.1
	Republican	Joel Krautter	3,432	3.4
	Republican	Kyle Austin	3,177	3.2
	Republican	Ed Walker (withdrawn)	1,168	1.2
Total votes			100,411	100.0

Democratic primary

Nominee

• John Driscoll, former Public Service Commissioner and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2008^[4]

Eliminated in primary

• Ming Cabrera, salesman^[57]
• Kevin Hamm, IT consultant^[58]
• Steve Held, actor and rancher^[4]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Ming Cabrera (D)	$60,007[l]	$41,424	$18,582
Kevin Hamm (D)	$62,689	$57,628	$5,061
Steve Held (D)	$86,570[m]	$67,945	$18,624
Source: Federal Election Commission[52]

Results

  Driscoll

•   30-40%
•   40-50%
•   50-60%
•   60-70%

  Held

•   30-40%
•   40-50%
•   50-60%

  Cabrera

•   30-40%

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Driscoll	13,420	33.3
	Democratic	Steve Held	10,649	26.4
	Democratic	Ming Cabrera	8,408	20.9
	Democratic	Kevin Hamm	7,813	19.4
Total votes			40,290	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[26]	Solid R	February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[27]	Solid R	September 15, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28]	Safe R	February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[29]	Safe R	September 7, 2023
CNalysis[30]	Solid R	November 16, 2023

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Troy Downing (R)	John Driscoll (D)	Other / Undecided
Montana State University[33]	September 30 – October 16, 2024	(A)	–	43%	26%	31%[n]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[37][H]	August 25–29, 2024	290 (LV)	–	52%	31%	17%

Results

2024 Montana's 2nd congressional district election^[38]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Troy Downing	181,832	66.0
	Democratic	John Driscoll	93,713	34.0
Total votes			275,545	100.0
	Republican hold

See also

• 2024 Montana elections

Notes

1. $76,300 of this total was self-funded by Todd
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Undecided" with 4%
4. $750,000 of this total was self-funded by Arntzen
5. $1,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Downing
6. $32,072 of this total was self-funded by Holden
7. $6,240 of this total was self-funded by Krautter
8. $450,000 of this total was self-funded by Rehberg
9. Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1%; Ed Walker with 0%
10. Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1; Ed Walker with 0%
11. Joel Krautter and Ed Walker with 1%; "Other" with 7%
12. $2,740 of this total was self-funded by Cabrera
13. $45,000 of this total was self-funded by Held
14. Metzger (I) with 4%; Neill (D) with 3%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Tranel's campaign
2. Poll sponsored by the Congressional Leadership Fund
3. Poll sponsored by Inside Elections
4. Poll sponsored by AARP
5. Poll sponsored by Elect Principled Veterans Fund, which supports Downing's campaign
6. Poll sponsored by Downing's campaign
7. Poll sponsored by supporters of Rehberg's campaign
8. Poll sponsored by AARP.

References

1. "2022 National House Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
2. Warren, Bradley (July 5, 2023). "Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate". Nonstop Local—ABC FOX. There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement.
3. Corrin, Noah; Warren, Bradley (July 10, 2023). "Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress". KTMF. Retrieved July 10, 2023. Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race.
4. "Federal Primary 2024". Montana Secretary of State. January 11, 2024.
5. Buffington, Posie (March 22, 2024). "Former Pres. Trump endorses Zinke for re-election in Montana's District 1 congressional race". NonStop Local. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
6. "2024 Endorsed Candidates". boltonpac.com. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
7. "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
8. NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
9. "2024 Election United States House - Montana 1st". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
10. "Montana 2024 Elections: Montana Primary Results". Montana Free Press. July 3, 2024. Retrieved October 30, 2024.
11. "Elect Democratic Women Endorses Monica Tranel in Montana's 1st Congressional District". Elect Democratic Women. August 3, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
12. "NewDem Action Fund Announces New Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate". NewDem Action Fund. October 26, 2023. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
13. Sagner, Denali (July 13, 2023). "Tranel Hones in on Montana's 'Purple DNA' at Kalispell Launch Event". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
14. "Fight Like Hell PAC". Fight Like Hell PAC. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
15. Montanan, Daily (July 11, 2023). "Tranel announces another bid for Congress". The Missoula Current News - Daily News in Missoula Montana. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
16. "Democrats launch their first slate of challengers in the fight for the House majority". NBC News. January 29, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
17. Schneider, Elena (February 8, 2024). "Pro-Israel group wades into several contested Democratic primaries". Politico. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
18. Chou, Lauren (September 27, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Monica Tranel for Montana's 1st Congressional District". EMILYs List. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
19. "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
20. "LCV Action Fund Announces Slate of New U.S. House Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
21. NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Group Proudly Endorses Tester, Tranel in Montana". NCPSSM. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
22. "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
23. "New Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsements: We Can Flip The House By Electing These Reproductive Rights Champions in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
24. "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of Champions for the U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. October 24, 2023. Archived from the original on October 24, 2023. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
25. "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
26. "2024 House Race Ratings: Another Competitive Fight for Control". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
27. "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
28. "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 23, 2023.
29. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 17, 2023.
30. "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
31. Impact Research (D)
32. Guidance Polling and Strategy
33. Montana State University
34. Noble Predictive Insights
35. DCCC (D)
36. Impact Research (D)
37. Fabrizio Ward (R)/
    David Binder Research (D)
38. "2024 Statewide General Election Canvass". Secretary of State of Montana. December 11, 2024. Retrieved December 11, 2024.
39. Mutnick, Ally; Beavers, Olivia; Everett, Burgess (February 15, 2024). "Rosendale drops Montana Senate bid". Politico.
40. Schnell, Mychael (March 8, 2024). "Rosendale drops reelection bid, will retire at end of term". The Hill. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
41. "Troy Downing announces campaign for Congress". KTVQ. November 1, 2023. Retrieved November 1, 2023.
42. West, Bowen (February 12, 2024). "Arntzen announces run for Congress". NBC News. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
43. Warren, Bradley; Corrin, Noah (January 9, 2024). "Montana State Senator Ken Bogner announces run for U.S. Congress". KULR-TV. Retrieved January 9, 2024.
44. Murray, David (September 25, 2023). "Holden joins growing field in run to represent eastern House District". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved September 25, 2023.
45. Lutey, Tom (February 21, 2024). "Denny Rehberg launches U.S. House campaign". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
46. Buffington, Posie (November 6, 2023). "Stacy Zinn announces run for Montana congressional district two". KULR8. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
47. Ambarian, Jonathon (April 11, 2024). "Endorsements come in for Montana eastern district primary, some big players still on the sideline". KTVH-DT. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
48. Roth, Samantha-Jo (April 3, 2024). "Freedom Caucus chairman endorses Republican in crowded primary for Rosendale House seat - Washington Examiner". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
49. "Big Win and Nine New Endorsements". House Freedom Fund. May 8, 2024. Retrieved May 8, 2024.
50. Gorman, Reese (April 12, 2024). "Trump endorses Downing for U.S. House race". NBC Montana. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
51. "Endorsements". With Honor Fund II. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
52. "2024 Election United States House - Montana 2nd". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
53. Cygnal (R)
54. Guidant Polling & Strategy
55. Cygnal (R)
56. Moore Information
57. Ragar, Shaylee (September 6, 2023). "Another Democrat joins Montana's eastern district U.S. House race". Montana Public Radio. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
58. Ehrlick, Darrell (May 16, 2023). "Hamm announces bid for Congress". Daily Montanan.

External links

Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

• Monica Tranel (D) for Congress
• Ryan Zinke (R) for Congress

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

• Troy Downing (R) for Congress