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The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.
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Both Montana seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||
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The 1st district is based in mountainous Western Montana, including the cities of Missoula, Kalispell, Bozeman and Butte. The incumbent is Republican Ryan Zinke, who was elected with 49.7% of the vote in 2022.[1] He initially had expressed interest in running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but chose not to do so.[2]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
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Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Mary Todd (R) | $87,253[a] | $67,177 | $20,075 |
Ryan Zinke (R) | $5,752,008 | $3,341,562 | $2,520,494 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[9] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 66,409 | 73.74 | |
Republican | Mary Todd | 23,647 | 26.26 | |
Total votes | 90,056 | 100.0 |
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
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Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Monica Tranel (D) | $2,340,724 | $826,277 | $1,524,332 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[9] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Monica Tranel | 59,806 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 59,806 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Dennis Hayes | 390 | 65.4 | |
Libertarian | Ernie Noble | 206 | 34.6 | |
Total votes | 596 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[26] | Lean R | October 4, 2024 |
Inside Elections[27] | Lean R | September 15, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Lean R | February 23, 2023 |
Elections Daily[29] | Lean R | September 7, 2023 |
CNalysis[30] | Lean R | November 16, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ryan Zinke (R) |
Monica Tranel (D) |
Dennis Hayes (L) |
Undecided |
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Impact Research (D)[A] | October 14–17, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 4% | 5% |
Guidance Polling and Strategy[B] | October 13–16, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 44% | – | 4% |
Montana State University | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | (A) | – | 44% | 37% | 4% | 15% |
Noble Predictive Insights[C] | September 11–14, 2024 | 432 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
47% | 43% | 3% | 7% | ||||
DCCC (D) | September 11–13, 2024 | 864 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 45% | – | 9%[c] |
Impact Research (D)[A] | August 26–29, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | 4% | 5% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[D] |
August 25–29, 2024 | 310 (LV) | – | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
Impact Research (D)[A] | May 2024 | – | – | 46% | 42% | 6% | 6% |
Impact Research (D)[A] | February 2024 | – | – | 52% | 43% | 0% | 5% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 162,704 | 52.4% | |
Democratic | Monica Tranel | 138,344 | 44.6% | |
Libertarian | Dennis Hayes | 9,403 | 3.0% | |
Total votes | 310,451 | 100% |
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The 2nd district encompasses much of the state east of the Continental Divide, including the cities of Billings, Great Falls and Helena. The incumbent is Republican Matt Rosendale, who was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2022.[1] He announced in February 2024 that he would run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but dropped out of the race one week later.[32] On March 8, 2024, Rosendale announced that he would not be seeking any office in 2024.[33]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
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Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Elsie Arntzen (R) | $871,444[d] | $805,097 | $66,347 |
Kenneth Bogner (R) | $54,359 | $43,425 | $10,933 |
Troy Downing (R) | $1,818,816[e] | $1,383,494 | $435,322 |
Ric Holden (R) | $49,248[f] | $46,540 | $2,708 |
Joel Krautter (R) | $76,533[g] | $67,136 | $9,397 |
Denny Rehberg (R) | $601,991[h] | $453,928 | $148,063 |
Stacy Zinn (R) | $41,460 | $3,091 | $38,369 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[45] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Elsie Arntzen |
Kenneth Bogner |
Troy Downing |
Ric Holden |
Denny Rehberg |
Stacy Zinn |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal (R)[E] | May 8–9, 2024 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 5% | 4% | 28% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 3%[i] | 40% |
Guidant Polling & Strategy[F] | April 14–17, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 10% | – | 38% | – | 26% | – | – | 27% |
Cygnal (R)[E] | April 15–16, 2024 | 415 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 7% | 4% | 21% | 1% | 11% | 3% | 3%[j] | 51% |
Moore Information[G] | February 1, 2024 | 500 (LV) | – | 5% | 3% | 16% | 2% | 26% | 2% | 9%[k] | 37% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Troy Downing | 36,269 | 36.1 | |
Republican | Denny Rehberg | 17,182 | 17.1 | |
Republican | Stacy Zinn | 13,581 | 13.5 | |
Republican | Elsie Arntzen | 9,468 | 9.4 | |
Republican | Kenneth Bogner | 9,026 | 9.0 | |
Republican | Ric Holden | 7,108 | 7.1 | |
Republican | Joel Krautter | 3,432 | 3.4 | |
Republican | Kyle Austin | 3,177 | 3.2 | |
Republican | Ed Walker (withdrawn) | 1,168 | 1.2 | |
Total votes | 100,411 | 100.0 |
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
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Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Ming Cabrera (D) | $60,007[l] | $41,424 | $18,582 |
Kevin Hamm (D) | $62,689 | $57,628 | $5,061 |
Steve Held (D) | $86,570[m] | $67,945 | $18,624 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[45] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | John Driscoll | 13,420 | 33.3 | |
Democratic | Steve Held | 10,649 | 26.4 | |
Democratic | Ming Cabrera | 8,408 | 20.9 | |
Democratic | Kevin Hamm | 7,813 | 19.4 | |
Total votes | 40,290 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report[26] | Solid R | February 2, 2023 |
Inside Elections[27] | Solid R | September 15, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Safe R | February 23, 2023 |
Elections Daily[29] | Safe R | September 7, 2023 |
CNalysis[30] | Solid R | November 16, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Troy Downing (R) |
John Driscoll (D) |
Other / Undecided |
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Montana State University | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | (A) | – | 43% | 26% | 31%[n] |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[H] |
August 25–29, 2024 | 290 (LV) | – | 52% | 31% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Troy Downing | 179,738 | 66.1% | |
Democratic | John Driscoll | 92,319 | 33.9% | |
Total votes | 272,057 | 100% |
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