2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales

The 2024 general election was held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Thirty-two seats were up for election in Wales as the general election occurred after the recently completed boundary review took effect. The Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, gaining six seats for a total of 27. Both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats made gains, taking them to four seats and one seat respectively. The Conservatives lost all thirteen seats they had held previously, leaving the party without Westminster representation from Wales for the first time since 2005.

2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales

← 2019 4 July 2024 Next →
← outgoing members
All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
Turnout	56.0% 10.6%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Keir Starmer Rhun ap Iorwerth Ed Davey Party Labour Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Leader since 4 April 2020 16 June 2023 27 August 2020 Last election 22 seats, 40.9% 4 seats, 9.9% 0 seats, 6.0% Seats before 21 3 0 Seats won 27 4 1 Seat change 9‡ 2‡ 1‡ Popular vote 487,636 194,812 85,911 Percentage 37.0% 14.8% 6.5% Swing 3.9% 4.9% 0.5%
Results by constituency ‡ owing to electoral boundaries changing, this figure is notional

Election

Date of the election

On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.^[1]

Number of Welsh MPs

Welsh constituencies used in the election, labelled.

The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, mandated the number of seats in Wales be reduced from 40 to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coterminous with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales was responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it was required to abide by this total.

The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021.^[2] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.^[3] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies.^[4] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November.^[5] and came into force on 29 November.^[6]

Constituencies

• Aberafan Maesteg
• Alyn and Deeside
• Bangor Aberconwy
• Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
• Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
• Bridgend
• Caerfyrddin
• Caerphilly
• Cardiff East
• Cardiff North
• Cardiff South and Penarth
• Cardiff West
• Ceredigion Preseli
• Clwyd East
• Clwyd North
• Dwyfor Meirionnydd
• Gower
• Llanelli
• Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
• Mid and South Pembrokeshire
• Monmouthshire
• Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr
• Neath and Swansea East
• Newport East
• Newport West and Islwyn
• Pontypridd
• Rhondda and Ogmore
• Swansea West
• Torfaen
• Vale of Glamorgan
• Wrexham
• Ynys Môn

Members not standing for re-election

MP	Consti­tuency	First elected	Party		Date announced
Wayne David	Caerphilly	2001		Labour	11 February 2022[7]
Hywel Williams	Arfon	2001		Plaid Cymru	11 November 2022[8]
Beth Winter	Cynon Valley[a]	2019		Labour	7 June 2023[9]
David Jones	Clwyd West	2005		Conservative	20 September 2023[10]
Jamie Wallis	Bridgend	2019		Conservative	22 October 2023[11]
Christina Rees	Neath	2015		Labour	1 February 2024[12]
Kevin Brennan	Cardiff West	2001		Labour	27 May 2024[13]
Geraint Davies	Swansea West	1997[b]		Labour[c]	28 May 2024[14]
Jonathan Edwards	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	2010		Plaid Cymru[d]	28 May 2024[15]

Candidates

Affiliation		Candidates[16]
	Conservative Party	32
	Green Party of England and Wales	32
	Labour Party	32
	Liberal Democrats	32
	Plaid Cymru	32
	Reform UK	31
	Independents	17 (15 constituencies)
	Heritage Party	6
	Workers Party of Britain	4
	Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party	3
	Co-operative Party	3[17]
	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	2
	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	2
	Women's Equality Party	2
	Climate Party	1
	Communist Party of Britain	1
	Libertarian Party (UK)	1
	Propel	1
	Socialist Labour Party (UK)	1
	True and Fair Party	1
	UK Independence Party	1
Total		235

Results

By affiliation

Affiliation[18]		Candidates	Seats					Aggregate votes
			Total	Gains	Losses	Net	Of all (%)	Total	Of all (%)	Differ­ence
	Labour	32	27	+8	0	9	84.4	487,636	37.5	3.9
	Conservative	32	0	0	−12	12	0.0	240,003	18.2	17.9
	Reform UK	31	0	0	0		0.0	223,018	16.9	11.5
	Plaid Cymru	32	4	+2	0	2	12.5	194,811	14.8	4.9
	Liberal Democrats	32	1	+1	0	1	3.1	85,911	6.5	0.5
	Green	32	0	0	0		0.0	61,662	4.7	3.7
	Independent	17	0	0	0		0.0	17,593	1.3	0.9
	Workers Party	4	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	1,545	0.1	—
	Abolish	3	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	1,521	0.1	—
	Propel	1	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	1,041	0.1	—
	Heritage	6	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	926	0.1	—
	UKIP	1	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	600	0.0	—
	Women's Equality	2	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	536	0.0	—
	TUSC	2	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	532	0.0	—
	Communist	1	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	521	0.0	—
	Libertarian	1	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	439	0.0	—
	Socialist Labour	1	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	424	0.0	—
	Monster Raving Loony	2	0	0	0		0.0	393	0.0
	True & Fair	1	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	255	0.0	—
	Climate	1	0	Did not stand in 2019			0.0	104	0.0	—
	Total	235	32	—				1,319,076	56.0

By constituency

This section is transcluded from Results of the 2024 United Kingdom general election. (edit | history)

Constituency	2019 seat		2024 seat						Votes								Turnout
			Affiliate		Candidate	Votes	Share	Margin	Lab.	Con.	Ref.	PC	Lib. Dems	Green	Other	Total
Aberafan Maesteg		Lab		Lab	Stephen Kinnock	17,838	49.9%	10,354	17,838	2,903	7,484	4,719	916	1,094	801	35,755	49.3%
Alyn and Deeside		Lab		Lab	Mark Tami	18,395	42.4%	8,794	18,395	7,892	9,601	1,938	2,065	1,926	1,575	43,392	57.3%
Bangor Aberconwy		Con		Lab	Claire Hughes	14,008	33.6%	4,896	14,008	9,036	6,091	9,112	1,524	1,361	528	41,660	60.0%
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney		Lab		Lab	Nick Smith	16,027	53.6%	12,183	16,027	3,776	—	3,844	1,268	1,719	3,288	29,922	43.0%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe		Con		LD	David Chadwick	13,736	29.5%	1,472	9,904	12,264	6,567	2,280	13,736	1,188	609	46,548	64.0%
Bridgend		Con		Lab	Chris Elmore	16,516	39.9%	8,595	16,516	6,764	7,921	3,629	1,446	1,760	3,338	41,482	56.7%
Caerfyrddin		Con		PC	Ann Davies	15,520	34.0%	4,505	10,985	8,825	6,944	15,520	1,461	1,371	498	45,604	62.0%
Caerphilly		Lab		Lab	Chris Evans	14,538	38.0%	6,419	14,538	4,385	7,754	8,119	1,788	1,650	—	38,234	52.6%
Cardiff East		Lab		Lab	Jo Stevens	15,833	40.5%	9,097	15,833	3,913	4,980	3,550	6,736	3,916	195	39,123	53.7%
Cardiff North		Lab		Lab	Anna McMorrin	20,849	43.9%	11,207	20,849	9,642	5,985	4,669	3,168	3,160	—	47,473	66.5%
Cardiff South and Penarth		Lab		Lab	Stephen Doughty	17,428	44.5%	11,767	17,428	5,459	4,493	3,227	2,908	5,661	—	39,176	54.0%
Cardiff West		Lab		Lab	Alex Barros-Curtis	16,442	36.7%	7,019	16,442	6,835	5,626	9,423	1,921	3,157	1,353	44,757	59.3%
Ceredigion Preseli		PC		PC	Ben Lake	21,738	46.9%	14,789	5,386	4,763	5,374	21,738	6,949	1,864	228	46,302	61.2%
Clwyd East		Con		Lab	Becky Gittins	18,484	38.7%	4,622	18,484	13,862	7,626	3,733	1,859	1,659	599	47,822	62.4%
Clwyd North		Con		Lab	Gill German	14,794	35.5%	1,196	14,794	13,598	7,000	3,159	1,685	1,391	—	41,627	55.5%
Dwyfor Meirionnydd		PC		PC	Liz Saville Roberts	21,788	53.9%	15,876	5,912	4,712	4,857	21,788	1,381	1,448	297	40,395	55.3%
Gower		Lab		Lab	Tonia Antoniazzi	20,480	43.4%	11,567	20,480	8,913	8,530	3,942	2,593	2,488	283	47,229	62.0%
Llanelli		Lab		Lab	Nia Griffith	12,751	31.3%	1,504	12,751	4,275	11,247	9,511	1,254	1,106	600	40,744	57.0%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare		Lab		Lab	Gerald Jones	15,791	44.8%	7,447	15,791	2,687	8,344	4,768	1,276	1,231	1,118	35,215	47.3%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire		Con		Lab	Henry Tufnell	16,505	35.4%	1,878	16,505	14,627	7,828	2,962	2,372	1,654	681	46,629	59.2%
Monmouthshire		Con		Lab	Catherine Fookes	21,010	41.3%	3,338	21,010	17,672	5,438	1,273	2,279	2,357	815	50,844	68.0%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr		Con		Lab	Steve Witherden	12,709	29.4%	3,815	12,709	7,775	8,894	5,667	6,470	1,744	—	43,259	58.4%
Neath and Swansea East		Lab		Lab	Carolyn Harris	16,797	41.8%	6,627	16,797	3,765	10,170	5,350	2,344	1,711	—	40,137	52.5%
Newport East		Lab		Lab	Jessica Morden	16,370	42.5%	9,009	16,370	6,487	7,361	2,239	2,045	2,092	1,937	38,531	50.0%
Newport West and Islwyn		Lab		Lab	Ruth Jones	17,409	41.5%	8,868	17,409	6,710	8,541	3,529	2,087	2,078	1,597	41,951	55.4%
Pontypridd		Lab		Lab	Alex Davies-Jones	16,225	41.2%	8,402	16,225	3,775	7,823	5,275	1,606	1,865	2,809	39,378	52.5%
Rhondda and Ogmore		Lab		Lab	Chris Bryant	17,118	47.8%	7,790	17,118	2,050	9,328	5,198	935	1,177	—	35,806	48.1%
Swansea West		Lab		Lab	Torsten Bell	14,761	41.4%	8,515	14,761	3,536	6,246	4,105	4,367	2,305	337	35,657	48.0%
Torfaen		Lab		Lab	Nick Thomas-Symonds	15,176	42.5%	7,322	15,176	5,737	7,854	2,571	1,644	1,705	1,018	35,705	49.9%
Vale of Glamorgan		Con		Lab	Kanishka Narayan	17,740	38.7%	4,216	17,740	13,524	6,973	3,245	1,612	1,881	851	45,826	61.6%
Wrexham		Con		Lab	Andrew Ranger	15,836	39.2%	5,948	15,836	9,888	6,915	4,138	1,777	1,339	480	40,373	57.5%
Ynys Môn		Con		PC	Llinos Medi	10,590	32.5%	637	7,619	9,953	3,223	10,590	439	604	200	32,628	61.4%
All constituencies									487,636	240,003	223,018	194,811	85,911	61,662	35,919	1,319,076	56.0%
									37.0%	18.2%	16.9%	14.8%	6.5%	4.7%	2.7%	100.0%
									Seats
									27	0	0	4	1	0	0	32
									84%	0%	0%	13%	3.2%	0%	0%	100.0%

By affiliate share

Aggregate votes Labour   37% Conservative   18.2% Reform UK   16.9% Plaid Cymru   14.8% Liberal Democrats   6.5% Greens   4.7%

Seats Labour   84.375% Plaid Cymru   12.5% Liberal Democrats   3.125%

Candidates by constituency

This section is transcluded from Results of the 2024 United Kingdom general election by constituency. (edit | history)

Candidates in bold won their respective constituency election.

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Reform UK	Green Party	Plaid Cymru	Others	Incumbent
Aberafan Maesteg	Abigail Mainon	Stephen Kinnock	Justin Griffiths	Mark Griffiths	Nigel Hill	Colin Deere	Captain Beany (Independent) Rhiannon Morrissey (Heritage)		Labour	Stephen Kinnock (Aberavon)
Alyn and Deeside	Jeremy Kent	Mark Tami	Richard Marbrow	Vicky Roskams	Karl Macnaughton	Jack Morris	Edwin Duggan (Independent)		Labour	Mark Tami
Bangor Aberconwy	Robin Millar	Claire Hughes	Rachael Roberts	John Clark	Petra Haig	Catrin Wager	Kathrine Jones (Socialist Labour) Steve Marshall (Climate)		Conservative	Robin Millar (Aberconwy)
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney	Hannah Jarvis	Nick Smith	Jackie Charlton		Anne Baker	Niamh Salkeld	Robert Griffiths (CPB) Yas Iqbal (Workers) Mike Whatley (Independent)		Labour	Nick Smith (Blaenau Gwent)
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Fay Jones	Matthew Dorrance	David Chadwick	Adam Hill	Amerjit Kaur-Dhaliwal	Emily Durrant-Munro	Jonathan Harrington (Abolish) Lady Lily the Pink (Monster Raving Loony)		Conservative	Fay Jones (Brecon and Radnorshire)
Bridgend	Anita Boateng	Chris Elmore	Claire Waller	Caroline Jones	Debra Cooper	Iolo Caudy	Mark John (Independent)		Conservative	Jamie Wallis
									Labour	Chris Elmore (Ogmore)
Caerfyrddin	Simon Hart	Martha O'Neil	Nick Beckett	Bernard Holton	Will Beasley	Ann Davies	Nancy Cole (Women's Equality) David Evans (Workers)		Independent (formerly Plaid Cymru)	Jonathan Edwards (Carmarthen East and Dinefwr)
Caerphilly	Brandon Gorman	Chris Evans[e]	Steve Aicheler	Joshua Kim	Mark Thomas	Lindsay Whittle[f]			Labour	Wayne David
Cardiff East	Beatrice Brandon	Jo Stevens	Rodney Berman	Lee Canning	Sam Coates	Cadewyn Skelley	John Williams (TUSC)		Labour	Jo Stevens (Cardiff Central)
Cardiff North	Joel Williams	Anna McMorrin	Irfan Latif	Lawrence Gwynn	Meg Shepherd-Foster	Malcolm Phillips			Labour	Anna McMorrin
Cardiff South and Penarth	Ellis Smith	Stephen Doughty	Alex Wilson	Simon Llewellyn	Anthony Slaughter	withdrew support from their nominated candidate	Sharifah Rahman (nominated as Plaid Cymru)		Labour	Stephen Doughty
Cardiff West	James Hamblin	Alex Barros-Curtis	Manda Rigby	Peter Hopkins	Jess Ryan	Kiera Marshall	Neil McEvoy (Propel) John Urquhart (Independent) Sean Wesley (Heritage)		Labour	Kevin Brennan
Ceredigion Preseli	Aled Thomas	Jackie Jones[g]	Mark Williams[h]	Karl Pollard	Tomos Barlow	Ben Lake	Taghrid Al-Mawed (Workers)		Plaid Cymru	Ben Lake (Ceredigion)
Clwyd East	James Davies	Becky Gittins	Alec Dauncey	Kirsty Walmsley	Lee Lavery	Paul Penlington	Rob Roberts (Independent)		Independent (formerly Conservative)	Rob Roberts (Delyn)
Clwyd North	Darren Millar	Gill German	David Wilkins	Jamie Orange	Martyn Hogg	Paul Rowlinson			Conservative	David Jones (Clwyd West)
									Conservative	James Davies (Vale of Clwyd)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Tomos Day	Joanna Stallard	Phoebe Jenkins	Lucy Murphy	Karl Drinkwater	Liz Saville Roberts	Joan Ginsberg (Heritage)		Plaid Cymru	Liz Saville Roberts
									Plaid Cymru	Hywel Williams (Arfon)
Gower	Marc Jenkins	Tonia Antoniazzi	Franck Banza	Catrin Thomas	Chris Evans	Kieran Pritchard	Wayne Erasmus (Independent)		Labour	Tonia Antoniazzi
Llanelli	Charlie Evans	Nia Griffith	Chris Passmore	Gareth Beer	Karen Laurence	Rhodri Davies	Stan Robinson (UKIP)		Labour	Nia Griffith
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare	Amanda Jenner	Gerald Jones	Jade Smith	Gareth Thomas	David Griffin	Francis Whitefoot	Anthony Cole (Workers) Bob Davenport (CPB) Lorenzo de Gregori (Independent)		Labour	Gerald Jones (Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney)
									Labour	Beth Winter[i] (Cynon Valley)
Mid and South Pembrokeshire	Stephen Crabb	Henry Tufnell	Alistair Cameron	Stuart Marchant	James Purchase	Cris Tomos	Hanna Andersen (Women's Equality) Vusi Siphika (Independent)		Conservative	Simon Hart (Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire)
									Conservative	Stephen Crabb (Preseli Pembrokeshire)
Monmouthshire	David TC Davies	Catherine Fookes	William Powell	Max Windsor-Peplow	Ian Chandler	Ioan Bellin	June Davies (True and Fair) Owen Lewis (Independent) Emma Meredith (Heritage)		Conservative	David TC Davies (Monmouth)
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr	withdrew support from their nominated candidate	Steve Witherden	Glyn Preston	Oliver Lewis	Jeremy Brignell-Thorp	Elwyn Vaughan	Craig Williams (nominated as Conservative)		Conservative	Craig Williams (Montgomeryshire)
									Conservative	Simon Baynes[j] (Clwyd South)
Neath and Swansea East	Samantha Chohan	Carolyn Harris[k]	Helen Clarke	Dai Richards	Jan Dowden	Andrew Jenkins			Labour	Christina Rees (Neath)
Newport East	Rachel Buckler	Jessica Morden	John Miller	Tommy Short	Lauren James	Jonathan Clark	Pippa Bartolotti (Independent) Mike Ford (Heritage)		Labour	Jessica Morden
Newport West and Islwyn	Nick Jones	Ruth Jones	Mike Hamilton	Paul Taylor	Kerry Vosper	Brandon Ham	George Etheridge (Independent)		Labour	Chris Evans (Islwyn)
									Labour	Ruth Jones (Newport West)
Pontypridd	Jack Robson	Alex Davies-Jones	David Mathias	Steve Bayliss	Angela Karadog	Wil Rees	Joe Biddulph (Independent) Jonathan Bishop (Independent) Wayne Owen (Independent)		Labour	Alex Davies-Jones
Rhondda and Ogmore	Adam Robinson	Chris Bryant	Gerald Francis	Darren James	Christine Glossop	Owen Cutler			Labour	Chris Bryant (Rhondda)
Swansea West	Tara-Jane Sutcliffe	Torsten Bell	Michael O'Carroll	Patrick Benham-Crosswell	Peter Jones	Gwyn Williams	Gareth Bromhall (TUSC)		Independent (formerly Labour)	Geraint Davies
									Labour	Carolyn Harris (Swansea East)
Torfaen	Nathan Edmunds	Nick Thomas-Symonds	Brendan Roberts	Ian Williams	Philip Davies	Matthew Jones	Nikki Brooke (Heritage) Lee Dunning (Independent)		Labour	Nick Thomas-Symonds
Vale of Glamorgan	Alun Cairns	Kanishka Narayan	Steven Rajam	Toby Rhodes-Matthews	Lynden Mack	Ian Johnson	Stuart Field (Abolish) Steven Sluman (Independent)		Conservative	Alun Cairns
Wrexham	Sarah Atherton	Andrew Ranger	Tim Sly	Charles Dodman	Tim Morgan	Becca Martin	Paul Ashton (Abolish)		Conservative	Sarah Atherton
Ynys Môn	Virginia Crosbie	Ieuan Môn Williams	Leena Farhat	Emmett Jenner	Martin Schwaller	Llinos Medi	Sir Grumpus L Shorticus (Monster Raving Loony) Sam Wood (Libertarian)		Conservative	Virginia Crosbie

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election § Wales

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results

This section is transcluded from Sub-national opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election. (edit | history)

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab.	Con.	Plaid Cymru	Lib. Dems	Ref.	Green	Others	Lead
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election[19]		–	37.0%	18.2%	14.8%	6.5%	16.9%	4.7%	1.9%	18.8
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,072	40%	16%	14%	7%	16%	5%	2%	24
24–28 Jun 2024	More in Common	N/A	848	42%	22%	9%	4%	14%	5%	4%	20
19–20 Jun 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	930	46%	15%	10%	7%	17%	4%	1%	29
14–18 Jun 2024	Savanta	N/A	1,026	49%	19%	12%	5%	12%	3%	-	30
5–7 Jun 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	960	45%	18%	11%	5%	18%	4%	0%	27
30 May – 3 Jun 2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,066	45%	18%	12%	5%	13%	4%	1%	27
22–27 May 2024	More in Common	N/A	805	45%	21%	13%	4%	12%	3%	1%	24
22 May 2024	Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
18–19 May 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	900	43%	19%	14%	3%	15%	6%	1%	24
22–23 Apr 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	40%	18%	14%	6%	18%	4%	0%	22
23–24 Mar 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	49%	16%	10%	5%	15%	5%	1%	33
20 Mar 2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[20]
18 Feb 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	45%	22%	10%	5%	13%	5%	1%	23
24–26 Jan 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	48%	20%	10%	4%	12%	4%	1%	28
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	47%	22%	11%	6%	10%	2%	0%	25
4–7 Dec 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,004	42%	20%	15%	7%	12%	3%	1%	22
12–13 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	44%	24%	13%	4%	9%	5%	1%	20
14–15 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	46%	26%	10%	3%	10%	4%	0%	20
16–17 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	44%	22%	10%	9%	7%	6%	1%	22
1–6 Sep 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	50%	19%	12%	5%	8%	5%	2%	31
13–14 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	41%	24%	13%	7%	11%	4%	0%	17
14–16 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	46%	24%	10%	7%	10%	3%	1%	22
17–18 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	43%	22%	10%	7%	12%	4%	1%	21
16 Jun 2023	Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[21]
12–17 May 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	49%	19%	10%	8%	9%	4%	1%	30
14–15 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	43%	23%	11%	8%	9%	4%	1%	20
15–17 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	44%	24%	12%	7%	9%	4%	0%	20
17–23 Feb 2023	YouGov	WalesOnline	1,083	53%	19%	12%	4%	8%	3%	1%	34
3–7 Feb 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	49%	20%	14%	5%	9%	3%	1%	29
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	51%	18%	13%	4%	8%	4%	2%	33
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022	Survation	38 Degrees	6,012	51%	24%	13%	6%	–	–	6%	27
20–22 Sep 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	46%	23%	15%	5%	5%	3%	3%	23
12–16 Jun 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	41%	26%	16%	7%	4%	4%	2%	15
5 May 2022	Local elections held in Wales[22]
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	41%	26%	13%	7%	6%	4%	3%	15
13–16 Dec 2021	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,009	41%	26%	13%	3%	7%	6%	3%	15
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021	YouGov	?	?	39%	29%	17%	3%	5%	–	7%	10
13–16 Sep 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,071	37%	31%	15%	4%	6%	5%	2%	6
6 May 2021	Election to the Senedd[23]
2–4 May 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,071	37%	36%	14%	3%	4%	3%	3%	1
18–21 Apr 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,142	37%	33%	18%	2%	3%	4%	3%	4
9–19 Apr 2021	Opinium	Sky News	2,005	42%	33%	14%	3%	–	3%	5% UKIP on 3% Other on 2%	9
16–19 Mar 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,174	35%	35%	17%	4%	2%	3%	3%	Tie
24 Jan 2021	Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[24]
11–14 Jan 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,018	36%	33%	17%	3%	5%	4%	2%	3
26–30 Oct 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,013	43%	32%	13%	3%	5%	3%	2%	11
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,110	41%	33%	15%	2%	4%	3%	2%	8
29 May – 1 Jun 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,021	39%	35%	15%	5%	2%	3%	1%	4
3–7 Apr 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,008	34%	46%	11%	4%	3%	2%	0%	12
20–26 Jan 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,037	36%	41%	13%	5%	3%	2%	1%	5
12 Dec 2019	2019 general election		–	40.9%	36.1%	9.9%	6.0%	5.4%	1.0%	0.7%	4.8

Seat projections

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Lab.	Con.	PC	LD	Notes
20 Oct 2022	People Polling	1,237	35	0	4	1	Based on 40 seats. Seats were reduced to 32.
12 Dec 2019	2019 general election	–	22	14	4	0

Analysis

The Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, winning 27 of the 32 seats. In addition to defending all of their seats in the south including around Cardiff and Swansea, Labour reversed many of the Conservative gains in 2019, gaining seats such as Bangor Aberconwy, Clwyd East, Clwyd North, Monmouthshire and Wrexham. Labour also won in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, which covers Montgomeryshire, the only area in Wales which had, until 2024, never elected a Labour MP.^[25] Of the Labour MPs elected, 2 of them are also members of the Co-operative Party. They are designated as Labour-Co-op, but generally just counted in Labour's total.

Plaid Cymru won four seats, the same as in 2019, however given boundary changes and the reduction in seats this should be counted as two gains. Plaid Cymru defended Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli with significant majorities, gaining the new seat of Caerfyrddin which had been nominally Conservative in 2019, and gained Ynys Môn from the Conservatives. This was the first time Plaid Cymru had won in Ynys Môn since 2001; it was the most marginal seat in Wales with a majority of 637 votes between Plaid and Conservatives, with Labour in close third place. By the share of the vote (14.8 per cent), Plaid Cymru achieved their best ever result in UK general election.^[26]

The Liberal Democrats gained one seat in Wales, Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Outside of briefly holding the predecessor seat following the 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, the Liberal Democrats have not had a seat in Wales since losing Ceredigion in 2017.^[27]

The Conservative Party lost every seat in Wales, having won fourteen seats in 2019, the first time since 2001 that Wales had no Conservative MPs. This was despite the Conservatives taking 18.2% of the overall vote and outpolling both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats in terms of votes.^[28]

Reform UK was the third largest party in terms of votes with 16.9%, nearly as many votes as the Conservatives and more than both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats; it was also a higher vote share than in England.^[29] Reform was the runner-up in thirteen constituencies, coming closest to winning in Llanelli.^[30] The Green Party was runner-up in one constituency, Cardiff South and Penarth.^[31]

See also

• Politics portal
• Wales portal
• United Kingdom portal

• 2024 United Kingdom general election in England
• 2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland
• 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland
• Next Senedd election
• List of MPs for constituencies in Wales (2024–present)
• List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Notes

1. Constituency was abolished and Winter lost the contest to be selected for another seat
2. Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central in the 1997 general election, but lost his seat in 2005; elected for Swansea West in 2010.
3. Sat as an independent from June 2023.
4. Sat as an independent from July 2020.
5. Incumbent MP for Islwyn
6. Was member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East from 2011 to 2016
7. An MEP for Wales (2019–2020)
8. Was MP for Ceredigion (2005–2017)
9. Was not reselected as a candidate
10. Baynes was the incumbent MP for Clwyd South in Wales, and stood in North Shropshire in England.
11. Incumbent MP for Swansea East