2024 California's 47th congressional district election
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The 2024 California's 47th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 47th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The Southern California-based 47th district is centered in Orange County and includes the cities of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, and Seal Beach, as well as portions of Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, and Laguna Woods.
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The incumbent is Democrat Katie Porter, who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2022. She is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate.[1] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Republican Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics and frequently went viral for grilling corporate executives during congressional hearings.[2] During the primary elections, AIPAC spent an unprecedented $4.6 million against Min.[3][4]
The general election pit former state assemblyman Scott Baugh, a Republican, against state senator Dave Min, a Democrat. Candidates eliminated in the primary election included Democratic attorney Joanna Weiss and Republican businessman Max Ukropina.
The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is a slightly blue suburban district with no incumbent. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 47th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[5][6] Democrat Joe Biden won the district with 54.5% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election.[7]
On the night of November 12, 2024, after a week of counting and an estimate of 86% of the vote reporting, Baugh conceded the race to Min, who was leading with 50.9% of the vote at the time.[8]
Primary election
Summarize
Perspective
Candidates
Advanced to general
- Scott Baugh (Republican), former minority leader of the California state assembly, former chair of the Orange County Republican Party, and runner-up for this district in 2022[9]
- Dave Min (Democratic), state senator and candidate for this district[a] in 2018[10]
Eliminated in primary
- Terry Crandall (no party preference), Santa Ana College economics professor[11]
- Tom McGrath (no party preference), chemical engineer[11]
- Long Pham (Republican), former member of the Orange County Department of Education Board of Directors and perennial candidate[11]
- Boyd Roberts (Democratic), realtor and perennial candidate[11]
- Bill Smith (no party preference), retired attorney[11]
- Max Ukropina (Republican), businessman and former aide to U.S. Representatives John Campbell and David Valadao[12]
- Joanna Weiss (Democratic), attorney and law professor[13]
- Shariq Zaidi (Democratic), security guard[11]
Withdrawn
- Julia Hashemieh (Republican), outpatient surgery company CEO[14]
- Dom Jones (Democratic), gym owner and The Amazing Race 34 contestant (ran for state assembly)[15]
- Harley Rouda (Democratic), former U.S. Representative[16] (endorsed Weiss)[17]
- Mike Schaefer, member of the California State Board of Equalization from the 4th district (2019–present)[18] (ran for U.S. Senate in Nevada)[19]
Declined
- Katrina Foley (Democratic), Orange County supervisor[20] (endorsed Rouda, then Weiss)[21]
- Josh Newman (Democratic), state senator (ran for re-election)[22]
- Katie Porter (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Representative (ran for U.S. Senate, endorsed Min)[1][10]
Endorsements
Scott Baugh (R)
U.S. representatives
- Kevin McCarthy, U.S. representative from CA-22 (2009–2023) and former Speaker of the House (2023)[23]
- Tom McClintock, U.S. representative from CA-5 (2009–present)[24]
- Steve Scalise, U.S. representative from LA-01 (2008–present) and House Majority Leader (2023–present)[25]
- Michelle Steel, U.S. representative from CA-45 (2021–present)[26]
State legislators
- Diane Dixon, AD-72 (2022–present)[27]
- Janet Nguyen, SD-36 (2022–present)[27]
Local officials
- Mike Carroll, Irvine city councilor (2020–present)[28]
- Carl DeMaio, former San Diego city councilor (2008–2012)[29]
- Donald P. Wagner, chair of the Orange County Board of Supervisors (2023–present) from the 3rd district (2019–present)[28]
Political parties
Organizations
Long Pham (R)
Organizations
- California Rifle and Pistol Association (co-endorsement with Baugh)[32]
Dave Min (D)
U.S. representatives
- Judy Chu, CA-28 (2009–present)[36]
- Andy Kim, NJ-3 (2019–present)[37]
- Grace Meng, NY-9 (2013–present)[36]
- Kevin Mullin, CA-15 (2023–present)[37]
- Scott Peters, CA-50 (2013–present)[37]
- Katie Porter, CA-47 (2019–present)[10]
- Mark Takano, CA-41 (2013–present)[38]
Statewide officials
- Rob Bonta, Attorney General of California (2021–present)[39]
- Eleni Kounalakis, Lieutenant Governor of California (2019–present)[36] (co-endorsement with Weiss)[40]
- Ricardo Lara, California Insurance Commissioner (2019–present)[38]
- Fiona Ma, California State Treasurer (2019–present)[41]
- Tony Thurmond, California State Superintendent of Public Instruction (2019–present)[42]
State legislators
Individuals
- Sal Rosselli, president of National Union of Healthcare Workers[37]
Newspapers and other media
- Los Angeles Times (primary only)[43]
Political parties
- California Democratic Party[44]
- Orange County Democratic Party[45]
Organizations
- AAPI Victory Fund[46]
- Asian American Action Fund[47]
- ASPIRE PAC[48]
- California Environmental Voters[49]
- Democrats of Greater Irvine[50]
- Emgage PAC[51]
- League of Conservation Voters[52]
- Sierra Club[53]
- Vote Common Good[54]
Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees California[55]
- American Federation of Teachers and California Federation of Teachers[49]
- Association for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs[56]
- California AFL-CIO[57]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 47 and 441[42][58]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters District Joint Council 42[59]
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades District Council 36[21]
- Los Angeles Police Protective League[60]
- National Education Association[61]
- National Union of Healthcare Workers[37]
- Orange County Employees Association[58]
- Orange County Labor Federation[62]
- Service Employees International Union[42]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 324[58]
Max Ukropina (R)
Political parties
Joanna Weiss (D)
U.S. representatives
- Julia Brownley, U.S. representative from California's 26th congressional district (2013–present)[64]
- Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present)[65]
- Josh Harder, U.S. representative from California's 9th congressional district (2019–present)[66]
- Sydney Kamlager-Dove, U.S. representative from California's 37th congressional district (2023–present)[64]
- Harley Rouda, former U.S. representative from California's 48th congressional district (2019–2021)[17]
- Eric Swalwell, U.S. representative from California's 14th congressional district (2013–present)[64]
Statewide officials
- Eleni Kounalakis, Lieutenant Governor of California (2019–present)[40] (co-endorsement with Min)[36]
State assemblymembers
- Cottie Petrie-Norris, AD-73 (2018–present)[21]
Local officials
- Katrina Foley, Orange County Supervisor from the 5th district (2021–present) (previously endorsed Rouda)[21]
Organizations
Dom Jones (D) (withdrawn)
Individuals
- Howie Klein, former president of Reprise Records (1989–2001) and adjunct professor at McGill University[73]
Harley Rouda (D) (withdrawn)
U.S. representatives
- Madeleine Dean, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2019–present)[74]
- John Garamendi, U.S. representative from California's 8th congressional district (2009–present)[75]
- Jim McGovern, U.S. representative from Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district (1997–present)[74]
- Dean Phillips, U.S. representative from Minnesota's 3rd congressional district (2019–present)[75]
- Max Rose, former U.S. representative from New York's 11th congressional district (2019–2021)[74]
- Mikie Sherrill, U.S. representative from New Jersey's 11th congressional district (2019–present)[75]
- David Trone, U.S. representative from Maryland's 6th congressional district (2019–present)[74]
Local officials
Katrina Foley, Orange County Supervisor from the 5th district (2021–present)(switched endorsement to Weiss after Rouda withdrew)[21]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Scott Baugh (R) |
Dave Min (D) |
Max Ukropina (R) |
Joanna Weiss (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R)[76][A] | February 12–14, 2024 | 366 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 27% | 22% | 9% | 16% | 9% | 17% |
| RMG Research[77][B] | November 14–19, 2023 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 17% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 4%[c] | 56% |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Dave Min (D) | $1,731,136 | $1,507,057 | $224,079 |
| Boyd Roberts (D) | $6,762 | $8,369 | $0 |
| Joanna Weiss (D) | $2,151,268[d] | $1,538,667 | $612,601 |
| Scott Baugh (R) | $2,010,374 | $313,132 | $1,707,928 |
| Max Ukropina (R) | $595,201 | $436,787 | $158,414 |
| Terry Crandall (NPP) | $13,985 | $12,461 | $1,523 |
| Tom McGrath (NPP) | $14,033 | $8,895 | $5,138 |
| Bill Smith (NPP) | $15,000[e] | $7,770 | $7,230 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[78] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Scott Baugh | 49,799 | 32.8 | |
| Democratic | Dave Min | 39,080 | 25.7 | |
| Democratic | Joanna Weiss | 28,948 | 19.0 | |
| Republican | Max Ukropina | 22,729 | 15.0 | |
| Republican | Long Pham | 4,195 | 2.8 | |
| No party preference | Terry Crandall | 2,400 | 1.6 | |
| Democratic | Boyd Roberts | 2,012 | 1.3 | |
| No party preference | Tom McGrath | 1,321 | 0.9 | |
| No party preference | Bill Smith | 902 | 0.6 | |
| Democratic | Shariq Zaidi | 672 | 0.4 | |
| Total votes | 152,058 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Summarize
Perspective
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[81] | Lean D | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[82] | Tossup | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] | Lean D | September 19, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[84] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis[85] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Dave Min (D)
U.S. representatives
- Adam Schiff, CA-30 (2001–present)[86]
Statewide officials
- Gavin Newsom, Governor of California (2019–present)[87]
Newspapers
Organizations
Scott Baugh (R)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Dave Min (D) |
Scott Baugh (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R)[100][A] | October 17–18, 2024 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[100][A] | September 24–26, 2024 | – | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| USC/CSU[101] | September 14–21, 2024 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 49% | 5%[f] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[102][C] | October 24–30, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[103][D] | June 14–15, 2023 | 555 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 39% | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joanna Weiss (D) |
Scott Baugh (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[102][C] | October 24–30, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Hypothetical polling
Scott Baugh vs. Joanna Weiss
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Dave Min | 181,694 | 51.44% | −0.28 | |
| Republican | Scott Baugh | 171,524 | 48.56% | +0.28 | |
| Total votes | 353,218 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Notes
- This district was numbered as the 45th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
References
External links
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