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Elections for California's class 1 Senate seat From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2024 United States Senate elections in California will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of California. There will be two ballot items for the same Class 1 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final two months of the 118th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2025), and a regular general election for a full term that starts on January 3, 2025, starting in the 119th United States Congress.
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Two Democratic U.S. representatives, Katie Porter of Irvine and Adam Schiff of Burbank, entered the race for the 119th Congress before February 14, 2023, when fellow Democrat Dianne Feinstein announced that she would retire at the end of her term.[1][2] A third, Barbara Lee of Oakland, announced her campaign on February 21, 2023.[3] Feinstein died in office on September 29, 2023. On October 1, 2023, California Governor Gavin Newsom appointed Laphonza Butler to fill Feinstein's term until a special election could be held in November 2024 to fill the last two months of Feinstein's term. On October 19, 2023, Butler announced that she would not seek election to finish the final two months of Feinstein's term, nor for a full Senate term in the 119th Congress.
Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday.[4] California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary election, in which all candidates regardless of party affiliation appear on the same primary ballot and the two highest-placing candidates advance to the general election; however, primary special election winners can win outright if they win more than 50% of the vote in the first round.[5] Schiff advanced to the general election in both the special and regular elections, along with Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey. The winner will become the first male U.S. senator from this seat since John Seymour left office in 1992, and will also make California one of several states to have a younger senior senator (Alex Padilla) and an older junior senator (the winner of the general election).[6]
California is considered to be a safe blue state at the federal and state levels, with Joe Biden winning the state by a margin of 29.16% in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats currently hold a large majority in California's U.S. House delegation, all statewide offices (including both U.S. Senate seats), and supermajorities in both of California’s state legislative chambers.
Prior to the 2024 election, senator Dianne Feinstein had served in Congress since being elected in a 1992 special election, defeating Republican appointee John Seymour. During her career, she was re-elected five times, winning in 1994, 2000, 2006, 2012, and most recently in 2018, where she defeated fellow Democrat Kevin de León with 54.2% of the vote. At the time of her death, Feinstein was the most senior Democrat in the Senate, and is the longest serving U.S. senator in California's history.
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Media sources speculated for years that Dianne Feinstein might choose not to seek reelection in 2024 or resign before the end of her term, owing to her age, reports that her cognitive state was declining, and her decision not to take the position of Senate president pro tempore in the 118th Congress, third in line for the presidency, even though she would customarily have been offered the role as the most senior member of the majority caucus. There was also speculation that Feinstein might face opposition within the Democratic Party as she did in 2018, when she was challenged by fellow Democrat Kevin de León and defeated him by an unexpectedly narrow margin.[44] In December 2022, Feinstein confirmed that she would not resign before the end of her term.[45]
In January 2023, with the question of Feinstein's reelection decision still open, U.S. Representative Katie Porter announced that she would run for the Senate. She confirmed that she would stay in the race even if Feinstein chose to run for another term.[1] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics, and frequently went viral for her pointed questioning of corporate executives in congressional hearings, often while using a whiteboard.[46] Porter's coastal, Orange County-based district is considered highly competitive, and all of her elections have been close.[47]
Two weeks later, Porter was joined by another Democratic member of the House, Adam Schiff, who said that he had consulted with Feinstein before entering the race.[2] A moderate[48] Democrat who unseated incumbent James Rogan in 2000, Schiff's profile rose significantly during the presidency of Donald Trump, owing to his role as a lead impeachment manager in the first impeachment of Donald Trump, his service on the January 6 Committee, and his frequent appearances on MSNBC.[49] Schiff has not faced a competitive election since 2000, as his Los Angeles-based district became significantly more Democratic during the 2000 redistricting cycle and has been considered a safe seat ever since.[50]
A third Democratic House member, Barbara Lee, reportedly told members of the Congressional Black Caucus in January that she would also run for the Senate.[51] As she was already 76 years old in January 2023, Lee reportedly pitched herself to donors as a transitional senator who would serve only one term.[52] A longtime progressive first elected in a 1998 special election, Lee is known for being the only member of Congress to vote against the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001, which led to military deployment in Afghanistan and several other countries.[53] Lee filed to run for Senate in early February 2023 and formally announced her campaign later that month.[54][3] Lee's district, based in Alameda County and including one of the state's largest cities in Oakland, is one of the most Democratic-leaning districts in the entire country.[55]
Feinstein continued to demur on her reelection plans, at one point saying she would not announce her decision until 2024.[56] But in February 2023, she confirmed that she would retire, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.[57] The 2024 election is only the second California Senate race without an incumbent since 1992, the other being the 2016 election following Barbara Boxer's retirement. However, Politico pointed out that the 2016 election had an "early and prohibitive frontrunner" in Kamala Harris while the 2024 election has no clear frontrunner, and thus considers the 2024 election the first truly open California Senate race in 32 years.[58]
Lee, Porter, and Schiff have similar voting records in Congress and similarly progressive platforms. As a result, they were expected to differentiate themselves by their life stories and individual strengths rather than their ideologies.[59] All three have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Porter has been accused of mistreating congressional staff, Lee's age was seen as a potential issue, and Schiff was expected to face opposition from progressives due to his past support for overseas military intervention and for taking donations from groups affiliated with the oil, payday loan, and pharmaceutical industries, though he has declared he would not accept funds from corporate PACs in his Senate campaign.[60][59] Schiff has also been criticized for listing his primary residence as Montgomery County, Maryland, in tax documents, though his campaign maintains that he lives in Burbank, California.[61] Other important factors include geography, as Schiff and Porter both represent southern California while Lee represents northern California, and diversity; a victory by Schiff would leave California with no female senators for the first time since 1992, while a victory by Lee would make her only the fourth black woman to serve in the Senate .[59][62]
Schiff began 2023 with $20.6 million in his campaign account compared to $7.7 million for Porter and just under $55,000 for Lee.[63] All three quickly began raising large sums of money; for example, in the first 24 hours of her campaign, Porter raised over $1.3 million.[64] The three also launched super PACs to aid with fundraising, each competing for the top California fundraising firms and consultants. Former Federal Election Commission chair Ann Ravel predicted that the race would be one of the most expensive Senate elections in history.[65] The expensive nature of the race led media sources to speculate that a wealthy candidate could run a competitive self-funded campaign, akin to Rick Caruso's campaign in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election.[66] This scenario seemed to come to pass when former Google executive Lexi Reese joined the race in June 2023; her aides told Politico she would spend a "significant" amount of her own money on her campaign.[67] However, Reese made little impact on the race and dropped out months later; though she raised $2 million, much of it self-funded, she wrote that this was "just not enough to run a state-wide campaign."[15]
Throughout most of 2023, there were no prominent Republicans in the race. This has been attributed to California's heavy Democratic lean and Republican donors' wariness of the high cost of running a statewide campaign in California; GOP strategist Duane Dichiara estimated that a Republican would need at least $80 million to run a viable Senate campaign. Additionally, California's top-two primary system may allow two Democrats to advance to the general election, a scenario that played out in the 2016 and 2018 Senate races, though the three-way division in the 2024 Democratic field could help a Republican reach the general election. Republicans would also benefit from the fact that the 2024 California Republican presidential primary, held on the same day as the Senate primary, was expected to be hotly contested and entice Republican voters to turn out in higher numbers.[43][40]
Feinstein faced calls to resign throughout 2023 due to reports of her declining health, including from U.S. Representative Ro Khanna. She declined to do so.[68] California governor Gavin Newsom had previously committed to appointing a black woman to the Senate if a seat opened up, after facing controversy due to appointing Alex Padilla to the seat left behind by Kamala Harris after she was elected vice president.[69] Possible appointees speculated by media sources included Barbara Lee, Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass, San Francisco mayor London Breed, Los Angeles County supervisor Holly Mitchell, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, and talk show host Oprah Winfrey, though Bass, Mitchell, and Winfrey said they would not be interested.[69][70] In September 2023, Newsom confirmed he would fulfill his promise to appoint a black woman, but said he would not appoint any candidate running to succeed Feinstein, and would instead appoint someone who committed not to run for a full term. Lee, the only black woman in the race, responded, "the idea that a Black woman should be appointed only as a caretaker to simply check a box is insulting to countless Black women across this country who have carried the Democratic Party to victory election after election."[71] Lee faced backlash for her comments, with several advisors to Newsom leaving her super PAC.[72] Newsom argued that the question of a Senate vacancy was "a hypothetical on top of a hypothetical," believing that Feinstein would not leave office before her term ended.[73]
Feinstein died later that month, on September 29, 2023.[74] Newsom was expected to quickly appoint a successor, as a crisis over a potential government shutdown necessitated a united Democratic front in the Senate. A special election for Feinstein's seat will also be held concurrently with the regular 2024 election.[75] In addition to those already mentioned, possible successors speculated by media sources included PolicyLink founder Angela Glover Blackwell, former state assemblywoman Autumn Burke, EMILYs List director Laphonza Butler, State Controller Malia Cohen, California Supreme Court justice Leondra Kruger, Bay Area Rapid Transit Board of Directors president Lateefah Simon, and U.S. Representative Maxine Waters.[76][77][78][79][80] Waters and California State Board of Education president Linda Darling-Hammond said they were not interested in the appointment.[78] Congressional Black Caucus chair Steven Horsford sent a letter to Newsom on behalf of the caucus that urged him to appoint Lee.[81]
On October 1, Newsom appointed Butler to the Senate, with no conditions about whether she may run in 2024.[82] Butler formerly served as president of SEIU Local 2015, the largest union in California, and on the University of California Board of Regents. She is openly lesbian, making her California's first openly LGBTQ Senator and the first openly LGBTQ black woman to serve in Congress.[83] Butler's appointment was controversial, with many pointing out that she was registered to vote in Maryland at the time. Butler responded that she lived in California for many years before moving to the D.C. metropolitan area in 2021; she pointed out that she still owned a home in Los Angeles and promised to re-register in California.[84] Butler was also criticized for advising Uber as it lobbied against a 2019 California bill to classify rideshare drivers as employees. In response, she maintained that she personally supported the bill.[85] At first, Butler left open the question of whether she would run for a full term, but on October 19, she said she would not join the 2024 race, neither in the special election to fill out the final two months of Feinstein's term, nor in the general election for the 119th Congress.[21][86]
On October 10, 2023, Republicans gained a prominent candidate when former professional baseball player Steve Garvey entered the race. Garvey, who played for both the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres, was considered to have an advantage in name recognition. Two other Republican candidates, healthcare executive James Bradley and attorney Eric Early, both of whom had previously made several unsuccessful bids for office, also attracted some media attention and support in polls.[33] Schiff and Porter consistently led in polling throughout the race, with Lee and the Republicans far behind. Lee's poor polling numbers was attributed to a lack of name recognition outside her San Francisco Bay Area constituency, her lack of fundraising compared to Schiff and Porter, and the fact that Schiff and Porter had prior national fame while Lee was less well-known. In November 2023, Lee ruled out withdrawing from the race and insisted she still had a chance.[87] Lee's campaign became much more willing to openly criticize her two main rivals, attempting to define Lee as the most progressive candidate in the race.[72]
On November 18, 2023, the California Democratic Party held its endorsing convention for the Senate race. Lee received the most delegate votes, narrowly outpacing Schiff; however, neither candidate came close to reaching the 60% threshold necessary to win the endorsement.[88] Rumors had circulated that Lee would drop out of the race and run for re-election to the House if she did not receive the party's endorsement, but her campaign reiterated after the convention that she intended on staying in the Senate race.[89]
| California Democratic Party Senate endorsement vote (60% required)[90] | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Regular election | Special election | ||||||
| Votes | % | Result | Votes | % | Result | |||
| Barbara Lee | 963 | 41.47% | No endorsement | 958 | 41.26% | No endorsement | ||
| Adam Schiff | 933 | 40.18% | 927 | 39.92% | ||||
| Katie Porter | 373 | 16.06% | 361 | 15.59% | ||||
| Lexi Reese | 3 | 0.13% | 2 | 0.09% | ||||
| Don't endorse | 50 | 2.15% | 67 | 2.89% | ||||
| Total | 2,322 | 100.00% | 2,315 | 100.00% | ||||
The 2023 Israel–Hamas war became a late issue in the race, with Lee initially being the only major candidate to call for a ceasefire. The California Democratic Party convention was disrupted by pro-Palestine protests calling for a ceasefire. Protestors entered the main convention arena and shouted, interrupting speeches by Schiff, Porter, and Lexi Reese. Some reportedly chanted the slogan "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free."[91] While the protest was initially peaceful, it later escalated, with over 1,000 protestors entering the building. Police locked down the building and the rest of the scheduled events that day were cancelled.[92] Porter would later call for a ceasefire the following month.[93]
In the months after his announcement, Garvey steadily rose in polling, heightening Republicans' odds of getting a candidate through to the general election.[94] Garvey largely avoided taking positions on political issues, spent no money on television ads, and did little in-person campaigning.[95] In the new year, Schiff's campaign began airing television ads that contrasted his positions with Garvey's. Porter accused Schiff of trying to prevent her from reaching the general election by boosting Garvey; she alleged that the ads, which labeled Garvey as too conservative, were intended to enamor Garvey to Republican voters. Due to the nonpartisan blanket primary, it is a common tactic for front-running candidates to boost the second place candidate whom they feel they can defeat most easily; Schiff's campaign denied that this was his intention.[96] Supporters of Schiff also independently purchased a similar anti-Garvey ad which ran on Fox News, despite Schiff previously calling for a boycott of the network.[97] Porter later began airing similar ads against another Republican, Eric Early. These ads were seen as an effort to split the Republican vote and help Porter clinch the second general election spot, though Porter denied this.[98]
Politico, FOX 11 Los Angeles, and USC Dornsife held a debate on January 22, 2024, which included Schiff, Porter, Lee, and Garvey.[99] The debate largely consisted of the Democrats attacking Garvey for his past support of Trump and questioning Garvey's support of him in 2024, and the differing viewpoints of the four in the Israel-Hamas war. The stance of all candidates towards congressional earmarks, which Porter strongly opposes, also was a key topic.[100]
Nexstar Media Group television stations aired a debate on February 12 featuring the same four candidates.[101] Key highlights include the candidates being asked whether they would support certifying the election should a candidate of the other party win the presidency, rising crime, the minimum wage, corporate donations in political campaigns, and the federal role in housing.[102][103]
KNBC and KVEA aired a debate in conjunction with Loyola Marymount University on February 20, which was broadcast on NBCUniversal-owned stations statewide and on KCRA, Sacramento's NBC affiliate.[104] Topics included the minimum wage, the federal budget deficit, military spending, the Mexico–United States border crisis, climate change, extending the life of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, and the proposed regulation of artificial intelligence.[105]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 24] |
Margin of error |
James Bradley (R) |
Eric Early (R) |
Steve Garvey (R) |
Barbara Lee (D) |
Katie Porter (D) |
Adam Schiff (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 1] | February 24–27, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 2% | 2% | 20% | 8% | 17% | 28% | 6%[lower-alpha 25] | 17% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[upper-alpha 2] | February 22–26, 2024 | 3,304 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 2% | 2% | 27% | 8% | 19% | 25% | 8% | 9% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 3] | February 19–21, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | 4% | 24% | 10% | 15% | 27% | 3%[lower-alpha 26] | 17% |
| Emerson College | February 16–18, 2024 | 935 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 2% | 2% | 22% | 9% | 16% | 28% | 2%[lower-alpha 27] | 17% |
| Public Policy Institute of California |
February 6–13, 2024 | 1,066 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 3% | 4% | 18% | 10% | 19% | 24% | 14%[lower-alpha 28] | 6% |
| USC Dornsife/CSU Long Beach/ Cal Poly Pomona |
January 21–29, 2024 | 1,416 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 1% | 1% | 15% | 7% | 15% | 26% | 2%[lower-alpha 29] | 29% |
| Emerson College | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 2% | 3% | 18% | 8% | 13% | 25% | 5%[lower-alpha 30] | 24% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | January 4–8, 2024 | 4,470 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 3% | 3% | 13% | 9% | 17% | 21% | 13%[lower-alpha 31] | 21% |
| December 15–19, 2023 | 858 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 5% | 4% | 15% | 12% | 14% | 26% | 4%[lower-alpha 32] | 19% | |
| December 7–10, 2023 | 590 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 5% | 6% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 22% | 8%[lower-alpha 33] | 20% | |
| Public Policy Institute of California |
November 9–16, 2023 | 1,113 (LV) | ± 3.2% | – | – | 10% | 8% | 16% | 21% | 27% | 14% |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 5] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 8%[lower-alpha 34] | 39% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[upper-alpha 2] | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 7% | 4% | 10% | 9% | 17% | 16% | 7%[lower-alpha 35] | 30% |
| Public Policy Institute of California |
October 3–19, 2023 | 1,395 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 5% | 6% | – | 9% | 18% | 21% | 32%[lower-alpha 36] | 8% |
| Data Viewpoint | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 6% | 4% | – | 6% | 19% | 19% | 13.5%[lower-alpha 37] | 32% |
| Public Policy Institute of California |
August 25 – September 5, 2023 |
1,146 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 5% | 5% | – | 8% | 15% | 20% | 31%[lower-alpha 38] | 16% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | August 24–29, 2023 | 4,579 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 17% | 20% | 12%[lower-alpha 39] | 32% |
| Public Policy Institute of California |
June 7–29, 2023 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 6% | 7% | – | 13% | 19% | 16% | 33%[lower-alpha 40] | 6% |
| Emerson College | June 4–7, 2023 | 1,056 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 6% | 3% | – | 6% | 14% | 15% | 9%[lower-alpha 41] | 47% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | May 17–22, 2023 | 5,236 (LV) | ± 2.5% | – | 18% | – | 9% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 32% |
| FM3 Research (D)[upper-alpha 6] | May 13–21, 2023 | 1,380 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 27% | – | 11% | 24% | 21% | 17% | |
| UC Berkeley IGS | February 14–20, 2023 | 7,512 (RV) | ± 2.5% | – | – | – | 8% | 20% | 23% | 10% | 39% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 24] |
Margin of error |
Ro Khanna (D) |
Barbara Lee (D) |
Katie Porter (D) |
Adam Schiff (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley IGS | February 14–20, 2023 | 7,512 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 4% | 6% | 20% | 22% | 9% | 39% |
| David Binder Research | November 19–21, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | 9% | 30% | 29% | 9%[lower-alpha 42] | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 24] |
Margin of error |
James Bradley (R) |
Eric Early (R) |
Steve Garvey (R) |
Barbara Lee (D) |
Katie Porter (D) |
Lexie Reese (D) |
Adam Schiff (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley IGS | Aug 24–29, 2023 | 3,113 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 17% | 1% | 20% | 4% | 32% |
| 10% | 7% | – | 7% | 17% | 1% | 20% | 4% | 34% |
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024[lower-alpha 43] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| James Bradley (R) | $182,626 | $152,659 | $30,052 |
| Eric Early (R) | $898,233[lower-alpha 44] | $893,719 | $4,514 |
| Steve Garvey (R) | $5,528,359 | $3,921,776 | $1,606,583 |
| Denice Gary-Pandol (R) | $129,324 | $128,482 | $842 |
| Sarah Sun Liew (R) | $48,420 | $24,977 | $6,240 |
| Barbara Lee (D) | $5,423,501 | $5,093,171 | $330,330 |
| Christina Pascucci (D) | $456,534 | $456,534 | $0 |
| Katie Porter (D) | $31,536,915 | $30,960,241 | $576,674 |
| Perry Pound (D) | $34,129 | $29,350 | $4,778 |
| Lexi Reese (D)[lower-alpha 45] | $2,016,597 | $1,810,020 | $206,577 |
| Adam Schiff (D) | $35,146,126 | $51,348,262 | $4,820,824 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[245] | |||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||||
| Steve Garvey | Barbara Lee | Katie Porter | Adam Schiff | |||||
| 1 | Jan 22, 2024 | California Environmental Voters Education Fund, KFI, KTTV, Politico, USC Dornsife Center |
Melanie Mason Elex Michaelson |
YouTube | P | P | P | P |
| 2 | Feb 12, 2024 | Nexstar Media Group stations: KTLA, KSWB-TV, KRON-TV, KTXL, KSEE, KGET-TV |
Frank Buckley Nikki Laurenzo |
YouTube | P | P | P | P |
| 3 | Feb 20, 2024 | Loyola Marymount University KNBC / KVEA |
Colleen Williams Conan Nolan Alejandra Ortiz |
YouTube | P | P | P | P |
Schiff and Garvey advanced in both regular and special primaries, albeit with different results. Schiff narrowly secured the first place in the regular primary with just 0.1% of the vote over Garvey, but fell short of it in the special one by 4%. However, the three leading Democrats overall performed better in the special primary, with 58.2% of the vote compared to 56.7%.[246][247]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Adam Schiff | 2,304,829 | 31.57% | |
| Republican | Steve Garvey | 2,301,351 | 31.52% | |
| Democratic | Katie Porter | 1,118,429 | 15.32% | |
| Democratic | Barbara Lee | 717,129 | 9.82% | |
| Republican | Eric Early | 242,055 | 3.32% | |
| Republican | James Bradley | 98,778 | 1.35% | |
| Democratic | Christina Pascucci | 61,998 | 0.85% | |
| Republican | Sharleta Bassett | 54,884 | 0.75% | |
| Republican | Sarah Sun Liew | 38,718 | 0.53% | |
| No party preference | Laura Garza[lower-alpha 2] | 34,529 | 0.47% | |
| Republican | Jonathan Reiss | 34,400 | 0.47% | |
| Democratic | Sepi Gilani | 34,316 | 0.47% | |
| Libertarian | Gail Lightfoot | 33,295 | 0.46% | |
| Republican | Denice Gary-Pandol | 25,649 | 0.35% | |
| Republican | James Macauley | 23,296 | 0.32% | |
| Democratic | Harmesh Kumar | 21,624 | 0.30% | |
| Democratic | David Peterson | 21,170 | 0.29% | |
| Democratic | Douglas Pierce | 19,458 | 0.27% | |
| No party preference | Major Singh | 17,092 | 0.23% | |
| Democratic | John Rose | 14,627 | 0.20% | |
| Democratic | Perry Pound | 14,195 | 0.19% | |
| Democratic | Raji Rab | 13,640 | 0.19% | |
| No party preference | Mark Ruzon[lower-alpha 4] | 13,488 | 0.18% | |
| American Independent | Forrest Jones | 13,140 | 0.18% | |
| Republican | Stefan Simchowitz | 12,773 | 0.17% | |
| Republican | Martin Veprauskas | 9,795 | 0.13% | |
| No party preference | Don Grundmann[lower-alpha 3] | 6,641 | 0.09% | |
| No party preference | Michael Dilger (write-in) | 7 | 0.00% | |
| Republican | Carlos Guillermo Tapia (write-in) | 5 | 0.00% | |
| No party preference | John Dowell (write-in) | 3 | 0.00% | |
| Republican | Danny Fabricant (write-in) | 3 | 0.00% | |
| Total votes | 7,301,317 | 100.0% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Garvey | 2,455,115 | 33.25% | |
| Democratic | Adam Schiff | 2,160,171 | 29.25% | |
| Democratic | Katie Porter | 1,272,684 | 17.24% | |
| Democratic | Barbara Lee | 866,551 | 11.74% | |
| Republican | Eric Early | 451,274 | 6.11% | |
| Democratic | Christina Pascucci | 109,867 | 1.49% | |
| Democratic | Sepi Gilani | 68,497 | 0.93% | |
| No party preference | Michael Dilger (write-in) | 27 | 0.00% | |
| Total votes | 7,384,186 | 100.0% | ||
After her loss, Porter remarked that the election was "rigged by billionaires," referring to a $10 million independent ad campaign attacking her that was funded by cryptocurrency supporters.[249] Porter's use of the word "rigged" was criticized, with some comparing her statement to Donald Trump's false claims of fraud in the 2020 election. Porter expressed regret for use of the word "rigged" and said that she meant to say that the election was "manipulated by dishonest means" which was a reference to the use of dark money in campaign financing, and not to mean that there was anything illegitimate about the vote counting.[250][251]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[252] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[253] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[254] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[255] | Safe D | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[256] | Safe D | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[257] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| Split Ticket[258] | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[259] | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Adam Schiff (D) | $39,349,181 | $53,898,876 | $6,473,265 |
| Steve Garvey (R) | $10,968,989 | $7,678,945 | $3,290,044 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[245] | |||
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Adam Schiff (D) |
Steve Garvey (R) |
Undecided [lower-alpha 46] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | through October 30, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 58.2% | 35.3% | 6.5% | Schiff +22.9 |
| 270toWin | September 30 – November 1, 2024 | October 21, 2024 | 55.5% | 34.0% | 10.5% | Schiff +21.5 |
| RealClearPolitics | August 29 – October 14, 2024 | October 21, 2024 | 57.3% | 34.7% | 8.0% | Schiff +22.6 |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through October 29, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 57.1% | 35.5% | 7.4% | Schiff +21.6 |
| Average | 57.0% | 34.9% | 8.1% | Schiff +22.1 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 24] |
Margin of error |
Adam Schiff (D) |
Steve Garvey (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | October 27–30, 2024 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 60% | 36% | – | 4% |
| UC Berkeley | October 22–28, 2024 | 4,341 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 55% | 34% | – | 11% |
| ActiVote | October 6–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 39% | – | – |
| ActiVote | October 1–18, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 34% | – | |
| YouGov[upper-alpha 7] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 3.38% | 56% | 35% | – | 9% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | October 7–15, 2024 | 1,137 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 63% | 37% | – | – |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 8] | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 33% | – | 11% |
| UC Berkeley | September 25 – October 1, 2024 | 3,045 LV) | ± 2.5% | 53% | 36% | – | 11% |
| USC/CSULB/Cal Poly Pomona | September 12–25, 2024 | 1,685 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 56% | 37% | 1%[lower-alpha 47] | 6% |
| ActiVote | August 13 – September 21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – | – |
| Public Policy Institute of California | August 29 – September 9, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 63% | 35% | 1%[lower-alpha 48] | 1% |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 1] | September 3–5, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 55% | 33% | – | 13% |
| ActiVote | July 16 – August 12, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 66% | 34% | – | – |
| UC Berkeley[upper-alpha 2] | July 31 – August 11, 2024 | 3,765 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 53% | 33% | – | 14% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | June 24 – July 2, 2024 | 1,261 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 64% | 33% | – | 3% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | May 23 – June 2, 2024 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 62% | 37% | – | 1% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | March 19–25, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 61% | 37% | – | 2% |
| UC Berkeley[upper-alpha 2] | February 22–26, 2024 | 3,304 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 53% | 38% | – | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 24] |
Margin of error |
Katie Porter (D) |
Adam Schiff (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley[upper-alpha 2] | February 22–26, 2024 | 3,304 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| David Binder Research | November 19–21, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 26% | 37%[lower-alpha 49] |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 24] |
Margin of error |
Katie Porter (D) |
Steve Garvey (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley[upper-alpha 2] | February 22–26, 2024 | 3,304 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 38% | 10% |
Only one debate was held between Garvey and Schiff.[270]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Steve Garvey | Adam Schiff | |||||
| 1 | October 8, 2024 | League of Women Voters of California / ABC Owned Television Stations (KABC-TV, KGO-TV, KFSN-TV) / Univision KMEX-DT |
Marc Brown Kristen Sze Warren Armstrong Gabriela Teissier |
YouTube | P | P |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Adam Schiff | ||||
| Republican | Steve Garvey | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Adam Schiff | ||||
| Republican | Steve Garvey | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
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