2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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Luján: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Ronchetti: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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On March 25, 2019, incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Udall announced that he would retire.[1][2][3] Udall was the only Democratic senator who did not run for reelection in 2020. Democratic U.S. Representative Ben Ray Luján defeated Mark Ronchetti by a 6.1% margin. Luján underperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 4.6%, who won the concurrent presidential election in the state against President Donald Trump by 10.8%. Ben Ray Luján was the first Hispanic to have won a Senate seat in New Mexico since Joseph Montoya in 1970.
Federal officials
State and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján |
Maggie Toulouse Oliver |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBAO Strategies (D)[44][upper-alpha 1][45] | April 15–18, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 64% | 25% | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ben Ray Luján | 225,082 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 225,082 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Clarkson |
Elisa Martinez |
Mark Ronchetti |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[60][upper-alpha 2] | March 18–22, 2020 | 400 (V) | ± 4.9% | 11% | 11% | 45% | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mark Ronchetti | 89,216 | 56.49% | |
Republican | Elisa Martinez | 41,240 | 26.11% | |
Republican | Gavin Clarkson | 27,471 | 17.39% | |
Total votes | 157,927 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Bob Walsh | 1,454 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 1,454 | 100.00% |
Host | Date & time | Link(s) | Participants | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ben Ray Luján (D) | Mark Ronchetti (R) | Bob Walsh (L) | |||
KOB4 and the Santa Fe New Mexican | October 5, 2020 | [62] | Present | Present | Present |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[63] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[64] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[66] | Safe D | October 30, 2020 |
Politico[67] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[68] | Lean D | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[69] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
538[70] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[71] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
U.S. presidents
Federal officials
State and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations
Federal officials
Individuals
Publications
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Mark Ronchetti (R) |
Bob Walsh (L) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research & Polling Inc.[93] | October 23–29, 2020 | 1,180 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 44% | 3% | 1% |
GBAO Strategies (D)[94][upper-alpha 1] | October 14–17, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52%[lower-alpha 2] | 41% | 5% | – |
54%[lower-alpha 3] | 43% | – | – | ||||
Public Policy Polling[95] | September 30 – October 1, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 41% | 3% | 6% |
Research & Polling Inc.[96] | August 26 – September 2, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 40% | 4% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[97] | June 12–13, 2020 | 740 (V) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Gavin Clarkson (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[98] | January 3–6, 2020 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 35% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBAO Strategies (D)[94][upper-alpha 1] | October 14–17, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 42% |
Ben Ray Luján vs. Gavin Clarkson
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ben Ray Luján | 474,483 | 51.73% | –3.83% | |
Republican | Mark Ronchetti | 418,483 | 45.62% | +1.18% | |
Libertarian | Bob Walsh | 24,271 | 2.65% | N/A | |
Total votes | 917,237 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican |
Ray Luján won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[100]
District | Ray Luján | Ronchetti | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 56% | 41% | Deb Haaland |
2nd | 42% | 55% | Xochitl Torres Small |
Yvette Herrell | |||
3rd | 56% | 42% | Ben Ray Luján |
Teresa Leger Fernandez |
Partisan clients
Voter samples
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