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The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.[1]
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   Ernst: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Greenfield: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Most experts and pollsters considered this race and the concurrent presidential race as a tossup due to incumbent president Donald Trump's low approval ratings and Ernst's own popularity dropping in polls, partly due to a viral moment in a debate where she did not know the break-even price for soybeans.[2] Despite this, Ernst was reelected by a larger-than-expected 6.6 points, while Trump simultaneously won the state with a similarly unexpected margin of victory. Ernst carried an overwhelming majority of the state's counties including many rural ones, while Greenfield carried only eight counties: Polk, Linn, Scott, Johnson, Black Hawk, Story, Cerro Gordo and Jefferson.[3]
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Candidates
Nominee
- Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. senator[4][5][6]
Withdrawn
Endorsements
Joni Ernst
Organizations
Result
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Joni Ernst (incumbent) | 226,589 | 98.64% | |
| Republican | Write-In | 3,132 | 1.36% | |
| Total votes | 229,721 | 100.00% | ||
On June 2, 2020, Theresa Greenfield won the Democratic primary with 47.71% of the vote, defeating three other major candidates, including Michael Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy.[11][12][13][14][15]
Candidates
Nominee
- Theresa Greenfield, businesswoman, candidate for Iowa's 3rd congressional district in 2018[16]
Eliminated in primary
- Michael Franken, retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy[17]
- Kimberly Graham, child welfare attorney[18][19]
- Eddie Mauro, businessman, teacher, candidate for Iowa's 3rd congressional district in 2018[20]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Cindy Axne, incumbent U.S. representative for Iowa's 3rd congressional district (running for reelection, endorsed Greenfield)[24]
- Chet Culver, former governor of Iowa[25]
- Deirdre DeJear, nominee for Secretary of State of Iowa in 2018[26]
- Abby Finkenauer, incumbent U.S. representative for Iowa's 1st congressional district (running for reelection, endorsed Greenfield)[27][28]
- Amber Gustafson, candidate for the Iowa Senate in 2018 (endorsed Greenfield)[29]
- Rita Hart, former state senator and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Iowa in 2018 (running in Iowa's 2nd congressional district)[6][30][31]
- Rob Hogg, state senator[6][30]
- Liz Mathis, state senator[32]
- Rob Sand, Iowa State Auditor[6][33]
- J.D. Scholten, nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018 (running in Iowa's 4th congressional district)[34]
- Tom Vilsack, former governor of Iowa and former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture[35]
- Stacey Walker, Linn County supervisor (endorsed Graham)[36][37]
- Steve Warnstadt, former state senator and intelligence officer in the Iowa Army National Guard[6][30]
Debates
Endorsements
Michael Franken
Federal officials
- Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2013–2015) and U.S. Senator from Nebraska (1997–2009)[39] (Republican)
Kimberly Graham
Individuals
- Paula Jean Swearengin, Democratic nominee in 2020 West Virginia U.S. Senate race[40]
Organizations
- Association of Professional Flight Attendants[40]
- Brand New Congress[41]
- Sunrise Movement Cedar Rapids Chapter[42]
- Sunrise Movement Dubuque Chapter[40]
- Sunrise Movement University of Iowa Chapter[40]
Theresa Greenfield
Federal officials
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio[43]
- Abby Finkenauer, U.S. representative (IA-01)[28]
- Gabby Giffords, former U.S. representative (AZ-08) (2007–2012)[44]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. representative (IA-02)[45]
- Barack Obama, former U.S. President[46]
State officials
- Marti Anderson, state representative[44]
- Tony Bisignano, state senator[44]
- Joseph Bolkcom, state senator[44]
- Robert Dvorsky, former state senator (1995–2019) and state representative (1987–1995)[44]
- Ro Foege, former state representative (1996–2008)[44]
- John Forbes, state representative[44]
- Bruce Hunter, state representative[44]
- Pam Jochum, state senator and former Iowa Senate president (2013–2017)[44]
- Bob Kressig, state representative[44]
- Monica Kurth, state representative[44]
- Jim Lykam, state senator[44]
- Mary Mascher, state representative[44]
- Jo Oldson, state representative[44]
- Sally Pederson, former lieutenant governor (1997–2007)[44]
- Janet Petersen, state senator and Senate Minority Leader[44]
- Amanda Ragan, state senator[44]
- Joe Riding, former state representative (2013–2015)[44]
- Sharon Steckman, state representative[44]
- Kristin Sunde, state representative[44]
- Zach Wahls, state senator[44]
- Cindy Winckler, state representative[44]
Individuals
- Jon Bauman, Social Security Works PAC president and former Sha Na Na member (1970–1983)[44]
- Andy McGuire, former Iowa Democratic Party chair[44]
- Christie Vilsack, former Iowa First Lady (1997–2007)[44]
Unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[44]
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 61[44]
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local 89, 67, 111, 577, 21[44]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Iowa State Conference[44]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 238[44]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 431[44]
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Michael Franken |
Kimberly Graham |
Theresa Greenfield |
Eddie Mauro |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[56] | May 5–6, 2020 | 849 (V) | – | 12% | 4% | 43% | 4% | 36% |
| Emerson College[57] | October 13–16, 2019 | 317 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 6% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 74% |
Results
Results by county:
Greenfield—70–80%
Greenfield—60–70%
Greenfield—50–60%
Greenfield—40–50%
Greenfield—<40%
Franken—<40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Theresa Greenfield | 132,001 | 47.71% | |
| Democratic | Michael T. Franken | 68,851 | 24.88% | |
| Democratic | Kimberly Graham | 41,554 | 15.02% | |
| Democratic | Eddie Mauro | 30,400 | 10.99% | |
| Democratic | Cal Woods (withdrawn) | 3,372 | 1.21% | |
| Democratic | Write-In | 514 | 0.19% | |
| Total votes | 276,692 | 100.00% | ||
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Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Rick Stewart, Libertarian nominee for the 2018 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election and independent candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa[58]
Independents
Declared
- Suzanne Herzog, economist and former ER nurse[59]
Major media described the campaign as one of the most likely to decide control of the Senate after the 2020 election.[60][61] Polls conducted after the primary showed a close contest between Greenfield and Ernst, with neither candidate leading by more than 4 points.[62][63][64][65]
Through June 2020, Greenfield had raised $11.5 million, compared to $14.6 million for Ernst but by September, Greenfield had pulled ahead, raising $40.0 million compared to $21.6 million for Ernst.[66][67][68] The race was expected to be the most expensive in the state's history,[69] and the second most expensive Senate race in the United States, after the 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina, where Cal Cunningham challenged Thom Tillis.[70]
Debate
| Host | Date & time | Link(s) | Participants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joni Ernst (R) | Theresa Greenfield (D) | |||
| Iowa Press Debates | September 28, 2020 | [71] | Present | Present |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[72] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[73] | Tossup | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[74] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Politico[75] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[76] | Tossup | October 30, 2020 |
| RCP[77] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[78] | Tossup | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[79] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[80] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
Joni Ernst (R)
Organizations
- Campaign for Working Families[81]
- Huck PAC[82]
- Maggie's List[9]
Theresa Greenfield (D)
Federal officials
- Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States, 2020 Democratic nominee for president
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio[43]
- Abby Finkenauer, U.S. representative (IA-01)[28]
- Gabby Giffords, former U.S. representative (AZ-08)[44]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York[83]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. representative (IA-02)[45]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States[84]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts[85]
State and local officials
- Marti Anderson, state representative[44]
- Tony Bisignano, state senator[44]
- Joseph Bolkcom, state senator[44]
- Robert Dvorsky, former state senator[44]
- Ro Foege, former state representative[44]
- John Forbes, state representative[44]
- Bruce Hunter, state representative[44]
- Pam Jochum, state senator and former Iowa Senate president (2013–2017) and state representative (1993–2009)[44]
- Bob Kressig, state representative[44]
- Monica Kurth, state representative[44]
- Jim Lykam, state senator[44]
- Mary Mascher, state representative[44]
- Jo Oldson, state representative[44]
- Sally Pederson, former lieutenant governor of Iowa[44]
- Janet Petersen, state senator and Senate Minority Leader[44]
- Amanda Ragan, state senator[44]
- Joe Riding, former state representative[44]
- Sharon Steckman, state representative[44]
- Kristin Sunde, state representative[44]
- Zach Wahls, state senator[44]
- Cindy Winckler, state representative[44]
Individuals
- Jon Bauman, Social Security Works PAC president and former Sha Na Na member[44]
- Andy McGuire, former Iowa Democratic Party chair[44]
- Christie Vilsack, former Iowa First Lady (1999–2007)[44]
Unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[44]
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 61[44]
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local 89, 67, 111, 577, 21[44]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Iowa State Conference[44]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 238[44]
- National Education Association[86]
- United Auto Workers[87]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 431[44]
Newspapers
- Cedar Rapids Gazette[88]
- Des Moines Register[89]
- Dubuque Telegraph Herald[90]
- Iowa City Press-Citizen[91]
- Quad City Times[92]
Organizations
- Brady Campaign[47]
- Center for Biological Diversity[93]
- Climate Hawks Vote[94]
- Council for a Livable World[95]
- Democracy for America[96]
- DSCC[48]
- EMILY's List[49]
- End Citizens United[50]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[97]
- Feminist Majority PAC[51]
- Giffords[52]
- J Street PAC[98]
- League of Conservation Voters[53]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[54]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[99]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[100]
- Population Connection[55]
Polling
Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polling
| Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Theresa Greenfield | Joni Ernst | Other/Undecided[b] | Margin |
| Real Clear Politics[101] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 45.8% | 47.2% | 7.0% | Ernst +1.4 |
| 270 to Win[102] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.6% |
47.0% |
6.4% | Ernst +0.4 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Theresa Greenfield (D) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[103] | November 1–2, 2020 | 871 (V) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Change Research[104] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 48% | 4%[c] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[105] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 50% | 2%[d] |
| Data for Progress[106] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 49% | 6%[e] |
| Emerson College[107] | October 29–31, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48%[f] | 51% | 2%[g] |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[108][A] | October 30, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 45% | 4%[h] |
| Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[109] | October 26–29, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | 11%[i] |
| Quinnipiac University[110] | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,225 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | 1%[j] |
| RABA Research[111] | October 21–24, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 51% | – |
| Emerson College[112] | October 19–21, 2020 | 435 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 51%[f] | 46% | 3%[k] |
| RMG Research[113] | October 15–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43%[l] | 46% | 10%[m] |
| 41%[n] | 48% | 10%[m] | ||||
| 45%[o] | 45% | 10%[m] | ||||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[114] | October 18–20, 2020 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 44% | 12%[p] |
| Insider Advantage (R)[115][A] | October 18–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 48% | 8%[q] |
| Monmouth University[116] | October 15–19, 2020 | 501 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 5%[r] |
| 501 (LV)[s] | 47% | 49% | – | |||
| 501 (LV)[t] | 45% | 51% | – | |||
| Data for Progress (D)[117] | October 8–11, 2020 | 822 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 47% | 10%[u] |
| YouGov/CBS[118] | October 6–9, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 47% | 10%[v] |
| Opinion Insight (R)[119][B] | October 5–8, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 47%[f] | 45% | 8%[w] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[120] | October 3–6, 2020 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 49% | 6%[x] |
| Quinnipiac University[121] | October 1–5, 2020 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 50% | 5%[j] |
| Data for Progress (D)[122] | September 23–28, 2020 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42%[l] | 44% | 14%[y] |
| 45%[z] | 46% | 9%[aa] | ||||
| Hart Research Associates (D)[123][C] | September 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 48% | – |
| RABA Research[124] | September 23–26, 2020 | 780 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 51% | – |
| Monmouth University[125] | September 18–22, 2020 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 5%[ab] |
| 402 (LV)[s] | 46% | 49% | 5%[ac] | |||
| 402 (LV)[t] | 47% | 48% | 5%[ac] | |||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[126] | September 16–22, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.99% | 40% | 42% | 19%[ad] |
| Selzer/Des Moines Register[127] | September 14–17, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 12%[ae] |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[128][D] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 5%[af] |
| Opinion Insight (R)[129][B] | August 30 – September 2, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 49%[f] | 43% | 7%[ag] |
| Public Policy Polling[130] | August 13–14, 2020 | 729 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 48% | 8%[ah] |
| Monmouth University[131] | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 6%[ai] |
| 401 (LV)[s] | 48% | 47% | 6%[ai] | |||
| 401 (LV)[t] | 48% | 47% | 5%[aj] | |||
| Data for Progress[132] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 45% | 11%[ak] |
| RMG Research[133] | July 27–30, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 40% | 24%[al] |
| Spry Strategies (R)[134][E] | July 11–16, 2020 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 43% | 45% | 12%[am] |
| GQR Research (D)[135][F] | June 23–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Selzer/Des Moines Register[136] | June 7–10, 2020 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[137] | June 6–8, 2020 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 48% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[138][G] | June 3–4, 2020 | 963 (V) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[139] | April 30 – May 1, 2020 | 1,222 (V) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 42% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[140][F] | December 13–15, 2019 | 944 (V) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Emerson College[57] | October 13–16, 2019 | 888 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 40% | 14% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)[141][H] | April 24–29, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[143] | April 29–30, 2019 | 780 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[144][I] | June 30 – July 1, 2017 | 784 (V) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.[145] | March 2–5, 2020 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 31% | 3%[ao] | 26%[ap] |
Hypothetical polling
with Eddie Mauro
with Joni Ernst and generic Democrat
with Joni Ernst and Generic Opponent
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Joni Ernst (incumbent) | 864,997 | 51.74% | −0.36% | |
| Democratic | Theresa Greenfield | 754,859 | 45.15% | +1.39% | |
| Libertarian | Rick Stewart | 36,961 | 2.21% | +1.48% | |
| Independent | Suzanne Herzog | 13,800 | 0.83% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,211 | 0.07% | -0.03% | ||
| Total votes | 1,671,828 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
By congressional district
By congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by AARP.
- Poll sponsored by the End Citizens United, which has only supported Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
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