Loading AI tools
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.[1]
 | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 61.2%  | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
  Baldwin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Vukmir: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
U.S. Senators
Organizations
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 510,812 | 99.64% | |
| Write-in | 1,848 | 0.36% | ||
| Total votes | 512,660 | 100% | ||
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers
Federal officials
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kevin Nicholson |
Leah Vukmir |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[85] | July 26–28, 2018 | 238 | ± 6.5% | 35% | 35% | 3% | 27% |
| Marist College[86] | July 15–19, 2018 | 355 | ± 6.1% | 38% | 28% | <1% | 34% |
| Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[87] | July 12–16, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.0% | 33% | 20% | – | 47% |
| Marquette University[88] | July 11–15, 2018 | 266 | ± 7.0% | 32% | 34% | 2% | 30% |
| Marquette University[89] | June 13–17, 2018 | 274 | ± 6.9% | 37% | 32% | 1% | 30% |
| Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[90] | June 7–12, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.0% | 28% | 14% | – | 58% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)[91] | May 31 – June 4, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 29% | 36% | – | 35% |
| American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)[92] | May 29–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 32% | 30% | – | – |
| Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[93] | April 30 – May 3, 2018 | 240 | ± 6.0% | 46% | 15% | – | – |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[94] | April 2–4, 2018 | 1,028 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% |
| Marquette University[95] | February 25 – March 1, 2018 | 243 | ± 8.2% | 28% | 19% | 2% | 49% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[96] | January 22–23, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 48% | 9% | 1%[a] | 42% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[96] | January 2–3, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 27% | 10% | 2%[b] | 60% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[97] | December 6–7, 2017 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | 30% | 23% | 2%[b] | 45% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Clarke |
Sean Duffy |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies (R)[98] | February 15–16, 2017 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Leah Vukmir | 217,230 | 48.90% | |
| Republican | Kevin Nicholson | 191,276 | 43.06% | |
| Republican | George Lucia | 18,786 | 4.23% | |
| Republican | Griffin Jones | 8,699 | 1.96% | |
| Republican | Charles Barman | 7,959 | 1.79% | |
| Write-in | 303 | 0.07% | ||
| Total votes | 444,253 | 100% | ||
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[124] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[125] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[126] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[127][a] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[128] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[129] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Leah Vukmir (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[130] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
| Emerson College[131] | October 29–31, 2018 | 604 | ± 4.1% | 53% | 44% | – | 3% |
| Marquette University[132] | October 24–28, 2018 | 1,154 LV | ± 3.2% | 54% | 43% | – | 1% |
| 1,400 RV | ± 3.0% | 52% | 42% | – | 3% | ||
| Ipsos[133] | October 12–18, 2018 | 1,193 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 39% | 3% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[134] | October 10–11, 2018 | 816 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Marquette University[135] | October 3–7, 2018 | 799 LV | ± 3.9% | 53% | 43% | – | 2% |
| 1,000 RV | ± 3.6% | 53% | 42% | – | 3% | ||
| Marist College[136] | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 571 LV | ± 4.8% | 54% | 40% | 1% | 5% |
| 781 RV | ± 4.1% | 53% | 40% | 1% | 6% | ||
| Ipsos[133] | September 14–24, 2018 | 1,109 | ± 3.0% | 52% | 39% | 4% | 5% |
| Marquette University[137] | September 12–16, 2018 | 614 LV | ± 4.4% | 53% | 42% | – | 2% |
| 800 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | – | 4% | ||
| Suffolk University[138] | August 18–24, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
| Marquette University[139] | August 15–19, 2018 | 601 LV | ± 4.5% | 49% | 47% | – | 2% |
| 800 RV | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 4% | ||
| Emerson College[140] | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 36% | 4% | 10% |
| Marist College[86] | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | 55% | 38% | 1% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[141] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 56% | 40% | – | 4% |
| Marquette University[89] | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[142] | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Kevin Nicholson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[143] | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 9% |
| Marist College[86] | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | 54% | 39% | 1% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[141] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 42% | – | 3% |
| Marquette University[89] | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 39% | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[142] | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | – | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[144] | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,668 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
David Clarke (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies (R)[98] | February 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 35% | 2% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Sean Duffy (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies (R)[98] | February 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 36% | 2% | 13% |
with Kevin Nicholson
with generic Republican
with David Clarke
with Sean Duffy
Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties.[145] This is the largest margin of victory for the Democrats in a major Wisconsin statewide campaign (presidential, senate, gubernatorial) since 2008.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 1,472,914 | 55.36% | +3.95% | |
| Republican | Leah Vukmir | 1,184,885 | 44.53% | −1.33% | |
| Write-in | 2,964 | 0.11% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,660,763 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
As a result of partisan gerrymandering, Baldwin only won 3 out of the state's 8 Congressional districts, despite winning the election comfortably by over 10 percentage points.
| District | Baldwin | Vukmir | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49.6% | 50.3% | Bryan Steil |
| 2nd | 73.4% | 26.4% | Mark Pocan |
| 3rd | 56.4% | 43.5% | Ron Kind |
| 4th | 78.6% | 21.3% | Gwen Moore |
| 5th | 43.0% | 56.9% | Jim Sensenbrenner |
| 6th | 47.5% | 52.4% | Glenn Grothman |
| 7th | 47.7% | 52.2% | Sean Duffy |
| 8th | 48.5% | 51.5% | Mike Gallagher |
Seamless Wikipedia browsing. On steroids.
Every time you click a link to Wikipedia, Wiktionary or Wikiquote in your browser's search results, it will show the modern Wikiwand interface.
Wikiwand extension is a five stars, simple, with minimum permission required to keep your browsing private, safe and transparent.
.jpg)
_(cropped).jpg)
