2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Wisconsin, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The Wisconsin Partisan Primary was held on August 14, 2018, with the governor, U.S. Senator, U.S. Representative, odd-numbered Wisconsin State Senate seats, and all Wisconsin Assembly seats on the ballot.[1]
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All 8 Wisconsin seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Wisconsin was notable for being the only state in which the party that won the popular vote still held a minority of congressional seats in 2018. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel attributed this to the impact of gerrymandering imposed by the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature in 2011.[2]
| Party | Candi- dates | Votes | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
| Democratic Party | 8 | 1,367,492 | 53.18% | 3 |  | 37.50% | |
| Republican Party | 7 | 1,172,964 | 45.61% | 5 | | 62.50% | |
| Independent | 3 | 21,592 | 0.84% | 0 | | 0.00% | |
| Write-in | 6 | 49 | 0.00% | 0 | | 0.00% | |
| Scattering | 9,558 | 0.37% | 0 | | 0.00% | ||
| Total | 24 | 2,571,655 | 100.00% | 8 | | 100.00% | |
Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin by district:[3]
| District | Democratic | Republican | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 137,508 | 42.27% | 177,492 | 54.56% | 10,317 | 3.17% | 325,317 | 100.00% | Republican Hold |
| District 2 | 309,116 | 97.42% | 0 | 0.00% | 8,179 | 2.58% | 317,295 | 100.00% | Democratic Hold |
| District 3 | 187,888 | 59.65% | 126,980 | 40.31% | 121 | 0.04% | 314,989 | 100.00% | Democratic Hold |
| District 4 | 206,487 | 75.61% | 59,091 | 21.64% | 7,509 | 2.75% | 273,087 | 100.00% | Democratic Hold |
| District 5 | 138,385 | 37.99% | 225,619 | 61.93% | 284 | 0.08% | 364,288 | 100.00% | Republican Hold |
| District 6 | 144,536 | 44.46% | 180,311 | 55.47% | 218 | 0.07% | 325,065 | 100.00% | Republican Hold |
| District 7 | 124,307 | 38.50% | 194,061 | 60.11% | 4,472 | 1.39% | 322,840 | 100.00% | Republican Hold |
| District 8 | 119,265 | 36.28% | 209,410 | 63.69% | 99 | 0.03% | 328,774 | 100.00% | Republican Hold |
| Total | 1,367,492 | 53.18% | 1,172,964 | 45.61% | 31,199 | 1.21% | 2,571,655 | 100.00% | |
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 Steil: 50–60% 60–70% 70-80 Bryce: 40–50% 50–60%  Steil: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Bryce: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st congressional district is located in southeastern Wisconsin, covering Kenosha County, Racine County and most of Walworth County, as well as portions of Rock County, Waukesha County and Milwaukee County. Incumbent Republican Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House and Republican nominee for Vice President in the 2012 who had represented the district since 1999, did not run for re-election. He was re-elected with 65% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+5.
Ryan could potentially have seen a close race; in hypothetical polling, his main Democratic challenger, Randy Bryce, was behind Ryan by only seven points. Ryan was also facing challenges in the Republican primary from Paul Nehlen, who also challenged Ryan in 2016, and from Nick Polce. Ryan announced on April 11, 2018, that he is not seeking re-election.[4][5][6] On April 22, Bryan Steil, member of the University of Wisconsin Board of Regents and former personal driver to Ryan, announced his bid for the seat, with news outlets reporting Steil as the Republican Party nominee front-runner.[7][8]
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bryan Steil | 30,883 | 51.6 | |
| Republican | Nick Polce | 8,945 | 14.9 | |
| Republican | Paul Nehlen | 6,635 | 11.1 | |
| Republican | Kevin Adam Steen | 6,262 | 10.5 | |
| Republican | Jeremy Ryan | 6,221 | 10.4 | |
| Republican | Brad Boivin | 924 | 1.5 | |
| Total votes | 59,870 | 100.0 | ||
Two Democrats announced; ironworker Randy Bryce and Janesville school board member Cathy Myers.
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives from Wisconsin[46]
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Randy Bryce |
Cathy Myers |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington (R-CLF)[48] | July 8–9, 2018 | 1,020 | ± 3.1% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Randy Bryce | 36,397 | 59.6 | |
| Democratic | Cathy Myers | 24,690 | 40.4 | |
| Total votes | 61,087 | 100.0 | ||
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bryan Steil (R) |
Randy Bryce (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D-Bryce)[60] | October 19–21, 2018 | 551 | – | 44% | 45% | – |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[61] | September 11–13, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.7% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Global Strategy Group (D-Bryce)[62] | September 4–8, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Global Strategy Group (D-Bryce)[63] | July 11–15, 2018 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 40% | 41% | — |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Paul Ryan (R) |
Randy Bryce (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[64] | November 9–10, 2017 | 549 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
with Paul Ryan
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[65] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[66] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| RCP[68] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[69] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| 538[70] | Likely R | November 7, 2018 |
| CNN[71] | Lean R | October 31, 2018 |
| Politico[72] | Lean R | November 4, 2018 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bryan Steil | 177,492 | 54.6 | |
| Democratic | Randy Bryce | 137,508 | 42.2 | |
| Independent | Ken Yorgan | 10,006 | 3.1 | |
| Independent | Joseph Kexel (write-in) | 7 | 0.0 | |
| Write-in | 304 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 325,317 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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 Pocan: >90%  Results by Precinct Pocan: 50–60% 60–70% 80–90% >90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd congressional district covers Dane County, Iowa County, Lafayette County, Sauk County and Green County, as well as portions of Richland County and Rock County. The district includes Madison, the state's capital, its suburbs and some of the surrounding areas. Incumbent Democrat Mark Pocan, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+18.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Pocan (incumbent) | 115,246 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 115,246 | 100.0 | ||
No Republicans filed
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Pocan (incumbent) | 309,116 | 97.4 | |
| Republican | Joey Wayne Reed (write-in) | 29 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Rick Cruz (write-in) | 8 | 0.0 | |
| Democratic | Bradley Jason Burt (write-in) | 1 | 0.0 | |
| Write-in | 8,141 | 2.6 | ||
| Total votes | 317,295 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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 Kind: 50–60% 60–70% Toft: 50–60%  Kind: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Toft: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 3rd congressional district covers much of the Driftless Area in southwestern and western Wisconsin; The district includes the cities of La Crosse and Eau Claire. It borders the states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. Incumbent Democrat Ron Kind, who had represented the district since 1997, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 99% of the vote in 2014. The district had an EVEN PVI, indicating an almost equal support of Democrats and Republicans.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ron Kind (incumbent) | 59,643 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 59,643 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Toft | 35,768 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 35,768 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[65] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[66] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| RCP[68] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[69] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| 538[70] | Safe D | November 7, 2018 |
| CNN[71] | Safe D | October 31, 2018 |
| Politico[72] | Safe D | November 4, 2018 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ron Kind (incumbent) | 187,888 | 59.7 | |
| Republican | Steve Toft | 126,980 | 40.3 | |
| Write-in | 121 | 0.0 | ||
| Total votes | 314,989 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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 Moore: 70-80% No Votes  Moore: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Rogers: 40–50% 50–60% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 4th congressional district encompasses a part of Milwaukee County and including all of the city of Milwaukee and its working-class suburbs of Cudahy, St. Francis, South Milwaukee, and West Milwaukee. Recent redistricting has added the Milwaukee County North Shore communities of Glendale, Shorewood, Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, Bayside, and Brown Deer to the district. Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore, who had represented the district since 205, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 70% of the vote in 206. The district had a PVI of D+25.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gwen Moore (incumbent) | 76,971 | 89.0 | |
| Democratic | Gary George | 9,466 | 11.0 | |
| Total votes | 86,437 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tim Rogers | 8,912 | 55.6 | |
| Republican | Cindy Werner | 7,121 | 44.4 | |
| Total votes | 16,033 | 100.0 | ||
Newspapers
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gwen Moore (incumbent) | 206,487 | 75.6 | |
| Republican | Tim Rogers | 59,091 | 21.7 | |
| Independent | Robert Raymond | 7,170 | 2.6 | |
| Write-in | 339 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 273,087 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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 Sensenbrenner: 50–60% 60–70% 70-80% Palzewicz: 50–60% 60–70%  Sensenbrenner: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Palzewicz: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 5th congressional district covers all of Washington and Jefferson counties, some of Waukesha and Dodge counties, and portions of Milwaukee and Walworth counties. Incumbent Republican Jim Sensenbrenner, who had represented the district since 1979, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+13.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Sensenbrenner (incumbent) | 73,397 | 81.2 | |
| Republican | Jennifer Hoppe Vipond | 17,010 | 18.8 | |
| Total votes | 90,407 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tom Palzewicz | 43,192 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 43,192 | 100.0 | ||
Newspapers
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Sensenbrenner (incumbent) | 225,619 | 61.9 | |
| Democratic | Tom Palzewicz | 138,385 | 38.0 | |
| Write-in | 283 | 0.1 | ||
| Democratic | Ramon Garcia (write-in) | 1 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 364,288 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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 Grothman: 50–60% 60–70% Kohl: 50–60%  Grothman: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kohl: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 6th congressional district is located in eastern Wisconsin, including the outer suburbs of Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay, it includes all or portions of the following counties: Adams, Columbia, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Jefferson, Manitowoc, Marquette, Ozaukee, Sheboygan, Waushara, and Winnebago. It also includes a small portion of far northern Milwaukee County around River Hills. Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+8.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Glenn Grothman (incumbent) | 60,485 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 60,485 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Dan Kohl | 41,862 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 41,862 | 100.0 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Glenn Grothman (R) |
Dan Kohl (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns[80] | October 29 – November 3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 61% | 33% | 6% |
| Change Research (D)[81] | October 27–29, 2018 | 525 | – | 50% | 48% | – |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[65] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[66] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| RCP[68] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[69] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| 538[70] | Safe R | November 7, 2018 |
| CNN[71] | Lean R | October 31, 2018 |
| Politico[72] | Lean R | November 4, 2018 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Glenn Grothman (incumbent) | 180,311 | 55.4 | |
| Democratic | Dan Kohl | 144,536 | 44.5 | |
| Write-in | 218 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 325,065 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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 Duffy: 50–60% 60–70% 70-80% Engebretson: 50–60% 60–70%  Duffy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Engebretson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 7th congressional district is located in northern and western Wisconsin, and is the largest congressional district in the state geographically, covering 20 counties (in whole or part), for a total of 18,787 sq mi. The district contains the following counties: Ashland, Barron, Bayfield, Burnett, Chippewa, Clark (partial), Douglas, Iron, Langlade (partial), Lincoln, Marathon, Oneida, Polk, Portage, Price, Rusk, St. Croix, Sawyer, Taylor, Washburn and Wood. Incumbent Republican Sean Duffy, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+8.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Sean Duffy (incumbent) | 60,708 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 60,708 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Margaret Ruth Engebretson | 27,179 | 57.3 | |
| Democratic | Brian Ewert | 20,257 | 42.7 | |
| Total votes | 47,436 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Sean Duffy (incumbent) | 194,061 | 60.1 | |
| Democratic | Margaret Engebretson | 124,307 | 38.5 | |
| Independent | Ken Driessen | 4,416 | 1.4 | |
| Democratic | Bob Look (write-in) | 3 | 0.0 | |
| Write-in | 53 | 0.0 | ||
| Total votes | 322,840 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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 Gallagher: 50–60% 60–70% 70-80% Liegeois: 70-80%  Gallagher: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Liegeois: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 8th congressional district includes Green Bay and Appleton. Incumbent Republican Mike Gallagher, who had represented the district since 2017, ran for re-election. He was elected with 63% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+7.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Gallagher (incumbent) | 62,524 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 62,524 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Beau Liegeois | 38,450 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 38,450 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[65] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[66] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RCP[68] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[69] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| 538[70] | Safe R | November 7, 2018 |
| CNN[71] | Safe R | October 31, 2018 |
| Politico[72] | Likely R | November 4, 2018 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Gallagher (incumbent) | 209,410 | 63.7 | |
| Democratic | Beau Liegeois | 119,265 | 36.3 | |
| Write-in | 99 | 0.0 | ||
| Total votes | 328,774 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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