2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana

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2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana

The 2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana

 2008 November 4, 2014 (first round)
December 6, 2014 (runoff)
2020 
Turnout51.5% Increase (first round) 43.6% Decrease (runoff)
 
Nominee Bill Cassidy Mary Landrieu Rob Maness
Party Republican Democratic Republican
First round 603,048
40.92%
619,402
42.03%
202,556
13.74%
Runoff 712,379
55.93%
561,210
44.07%
Eliminated

Cassidy:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Landrieu:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Mary Landrieu
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Cassidy
Republican

Close

Incumbent senator Mary Landrieu ran for re-election to a fourth term in office against U.S. Representative Bill Cassidy and several other candidates.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system). Since no candidate received a majority of the vote in the primary election, a runoff election was held on December 6, 2014, between the top two candidates, Landrieu and Cassidy.[1]

In the December 6 runoff, Cassidy defeated Landrieu by 11.86 percentage points (55.93% to 44.07%), settling the fate of the final Senate seat of the 2014 midterms, becoming the first Republican to hold this seat since 1883, and giving Senate Republicans 54 seats in the 114th Congress.[2] This marked the first time since the resignation of William Pitt Kellogg in 1872 that both of Louisiana's Senate seats were held by Republicans, and rendered Cedric Richmond as Louisiana's only congressional Democrat.

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2 sources

Background

Elections in Louisiana, with the exception of U.S. presidential elections, follow a variation of the open primary system called the jungle primary. Candidates of any and all parties are listed on one ballot; voters need not limit themselves to the candidates of one party. Unless one candidate takes more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a run-off election is then held between the top two candidates, who may in fact be members of the same party. This scenario occurred in the 7th District congressional race in 1996, when Democrats Chris John and Hunter Lundy made the runoff for the open seat, and in 1999, when Republicans Suzanne Haik Terrell and Woody Jenkins made the runoff for Commissioner of Elections.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Declared

Withdrew

  • Raymond Brown, minister, civil rights activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1998 and 2002 (endorsed Landrieu)[7][8]

Declined

Republican Party

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Libertarian Party

Declared

  • Brannon McMorris, electrical engineer[27]
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25 sources

Jungle primary

Debates

Endorsements

Mary Landrieu (D)

Individuals

Organizations

Bill Cassidy (R)

Politicians

Individuals

Rob Maness (R)

Politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Rob
Maness (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45] August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 48% 24% 5% 23%
Southern Media & Opinion Research[46] November 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% 41% 34% 10% 16%
Harper Polling[47] January 19–20, 2014 992 ± 3.11% 42% 29% 4% 4% 20%
Public Policy Polling[48] February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 43% 25% 5% 3% 25%
Magellan Strategies[49] March 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% 39% 26% 3% 3% 28%
Harper Polling[50] April 7–9, 2014 538 ± 4.22% 40% 35% 3% 4% 18%
New York Times/Kaiser Family[51] April 8–15, 2014 946 ± ? 42% 18% 5% 4% 3% 27%
Southern Media & Opinion Research[52] April 28–30, 2014 600 ± 4% 36% 35% 4% 7% 18%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[53] May 5–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 29% 8% 7% 8%
Public Policy Polling[54] June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 44% 27% 5% 8% 17%
Senate Conservatives Fund[55] August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 32% 16% 1% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[56] August 18 – September 2, 2014 870 ± 5% 36% 38% 10% 3%[57] 11%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[58] August 28 – September 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 47% 32% 13% 8%
Gravis Marketing[59] September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 45% 30% 14% 12%
Fox News[60] September 14–16, 2014 617 ± 4% 31% 35% 7% 16%
CNN/ORC[61] September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 43% 40% 9% 4% 4%
866 RV ± 3.5% 45% 35% 8% 6% 5%
Public Policy Polling[62] September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 42% 34% 12% 2% 10%
Hickman Analytics[63] September 26 – October 2, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 39% 30% 6% 5%[64] 19%
0ptimus[65] September 30 – October 2, 2014 5,711 ± 1.3% 38% 36% 18% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[66] October 13–14, 2014 965 ± 3% 41% 38% 14% 2% 5%
Vox Populi Polling[67] October 13–14, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 38% 38% 10% 6%[68] 8%
Multi-Quest International[69] October 14–19, 2014 605 ± 4% 36% 32% 6% 3% 23%
Rasmussen Reports[66] October 22–23, 2014 988 ± 3% 43% 36% 13% 3% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[70] October 16–23, 2014 1,316 ± 5% 37% 32% 5% 5%[71] 19%
University of New Orleans[72] October 11–24, 2014 590 ± 4.1% 38% 33% 7% 1% 21%
Suffolk University[73] October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 36% 35% 11% 3%[74] 15%
NBC News/Marist[75] October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% 44% 36% 15% 1% 4%
961 RV ± 3.2% 42% 35% 15% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling[76] October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,003 ± 3.1% 43% 35% 15% 1% 6%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Rob
Maness (R)
Phil
Robertson (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[48] February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 40% 21% 5% 4% 13% 18%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
John
Fleming (R)
Elbert
Guillory (R)
Chas
Roemer (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45] August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 47% 20% 6% 2% 25%
Public Opinion Strategies^[77] March 3–5, 2013 500 ± 4.38% 47% 14% 15% 6% 18%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Chas
Roemer (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling[78] April 6–7, 2013 541 ± 4.21% 38% 14% 48%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Jungle primary

  • ^ Internal poll for John Fleming Campaign

Republican primary

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election jungle primary in Louisiana, 2014[79]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Landrieu (incumbent) 619,402 42.08%
Republican Bill Cassidy 603,048 40.97%
Republican Rob Maness 202,556 13.76%
Republican Thomas Clements 14,173 0.96%
Libertarian Brannon McMorris 13,034 0.89%
Democratic Wayne Ables 11,323 0.77%
Democratic William Waymire 4,673 0.32%
Democratic Vallian Senegal 3,835 0.26%
Total votes 1,473,826 100%
Close
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52 sources

Runoff

Debates

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[80] Lean R (flip) November 21, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[81] Safe R (flip) December 4, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[82] Lean R (flip) November 6, 2014
Real Clear Politics[83] Likely R (flip) November 19, 2014
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[84] February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 50% 40% 10%
Harper Polling[78] April 6–7, 2013 541 ± 4.21% 46% 41% 13%
On Message Inc.[85] August 13–15, 2013 600 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 12%
Harper Polling[86] August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 45% 47% 8%
Public Policy Polling[45] August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 50% 40% 10%
Harper Polling[87] September 22–23, 2013 561 ± 4.14% 46% 44% 10%
Public Policy Polling[88] October 14–15, 2013 632 ± 3.9% 48% 41% 11%
Harper Polling[47] January 19–20, 2014 992 ± 3.11% 44% 45% 11%
Rasmussen Reports[66] January 28–29, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Public Policy Polling[48] February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 45% 44% 10%
Hickman Analytics[89] February 17–24, 2014 404 ± 4.9% 42% 46% 11%
Voter/Consumer Research[90] February 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% 45% 44% 1% 9%
Harper Polling[50] April 7–9, 2014 538 ± 4.22% 43% 47% 10%
Magellan Strategies[91] April 14–15, 2014 775 ± 3.52% 42% 44% 10% 4%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[53] May 5–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 49% 49% 2%
Magellan Strategies[92] June 5–8, 2014 719 ± 3.65% 44% 50% 5% 1%
Public Policy Polling[54] June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 47% 47% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[66] July 8–9, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 43% 5% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[93] July 5–24, 2014 1,456 ± 3.5% 46% 47% 6% 2%
Senate Conservatives Fund[55] August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% 49% 43% 8%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[58] August 28 – September 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 46% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[66] September 2–3, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 41% 44% 9% 6%
Gravis Marketing[59] September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 45% 45% 10%
Fox News[60] September 14–16, 2014 617 ± 4% 38% 51% 9%
CNN/ORC[61] September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 47% 50% 3%
866 RV ± 3.5% 51% 45% 4%
Public Policy Polling[62] September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 45% 48% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[70] September 20 – October 1, 2014 2,187 ± 2% 41% 47% 0% 13%
Hickman Analytics[63] September 26 – October 2, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 45% 46% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[66] October 13–14, 2014 965 ± 3% 43% 52% 5%
Vox Populi Polling[67] October 13–14, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 44% 48% 8%
Multi-Quest International[69] October 14–19, 2014 605 ± 4% 40% 43% 17%
Rasmussen Reports[66] October 22–23, 2014 988 ± 3% 46% 50% 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[70] October 16–23, 2014 1,316 ± 5% 42% 46% 0% 12%
University of New Orleans[94] October 11–24, 2014 590 ± 4.1% 43% 51% 6%
Suffolk University[95] October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 41% 48% 11%
NBC News/Marist[75] October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% 45% 50% 1% 5%
961 RV ± 3.2% 44% 49% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling[76] October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,003 ± 3.1% 47% 48% 5%
Gravis Marketing[96] November 12–14, 2014 643 ± 4% 38% 59% 3%
Vox Populi Polling[97] November 16–17, 2014 761 ± 3.55% 42% 53% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[66] November 16–19, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 41% 56% 3%
JJMC Analytics[98] November 20, 2014 754 ± 3.6% 40% 55% 5%
GEB International[99] November 20, 2014 850 ± 3.36% 34% 60% 6%
WPA Opinion Research[100] November 24–25, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 33% 57% 10%
Rasmussen Reports[66] December 2–4, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 40% 56% 4%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Charles
Boustany (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[84] February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 48% 42% 10%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Jay
Dardenne (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[84] February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 46% 43% 11%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
John
Fleming (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[84] February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 50% 38% 12%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Elbert
Guillory (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling[86] August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 44% 44% 11%
Public Policy Polling[45] August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 50% 36% 14%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[48] February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 48% 42% 10%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bobby
Jindal (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[84] February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 49% 41% 10%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Jeff
Landry (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[84] February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 48% 39% 13%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Rob
Maness (R)
Other Undecided
Harper Polling[86] August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 47% 41% 12%
Public Policy Polling[45] August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 50% 37% 13%
Public Policy Polling[48] February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 47% 42% 10%
Senate Conservatives Fund[55] August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 44% 8%
CNN/ORC[61] September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 48% 48% 4%
866 RV ± 3.5% 53% 42% 5%
NBC News/Marist[75] October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% 46% 50% 1% 4%
961 RV ± 3.2% 46% 47% 1% 5%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Phil
Robertson (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[48] February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 42% 46% 12%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Chas
Roemer (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling[78] April 6–7, 2013 541 ± 4.21% 46% 33% 21%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Steve
Scalise (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[84] February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 48% 38% 14%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Results

Thumb
Thumb
More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election runoff in Louisiana, 2014[101]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bill Cassidy 712,379 55.93% +10.21%
Democratic Mary Landrieu (incumbent) 561,210 44.07% −8.04%
Total votes 1,273,589 100% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic
Close

Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Cassidy won 5 of the 6 congressional districts in Louisiana.

More information District, Cassidy ...
District Cassidy Landrieu Representative
1st 65.64% 34.36% Steve Scalise
2nd 19.64% 80.36% Cedric Richmond
3rd 66.19% 33.81% Charles Boustany
4th 58.38% 41.62% John Fleming
5th 60.96% 39.04% Ralph Abraham
6th 64.03% 35.97% Garret Graves
Close
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22 sources

See also

References

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