2014 Iowa gubernatorial election

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2014 Iowa gubernatorial election

The 2014 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014. Republican incumbent Terry Branstad ran for reelection to a sixth overall and second consecutive four-year term.[1] Branstad went on to win a historic sixth term as governor by defeating Democratic challenger and State Senator Jack Hatch, and on December 14, 2015, he became the longest-serving governor in American history. He won 59.1% of the popular vote to Hatch's 37.3%, and carried every county in the state except Johnson, home to Iowa City and the University of Iowa.

Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...
2014 Iowa gubernatorial election

 2010 November 4, 2014 2018 
 
Nominee Terry Branstad Jack Hatch
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kim Reynolds Monica Vernon
Popular vote 666,032 420,787
Percentage 58.99% 37.27%

Branstad:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Hatch:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%

Governor before election

Terry Branstad
Republican

Elected Governor

Terry Branstad
Republican

Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad
Tom
Hoefling
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[3] May 15–19, 2014 303 ± 3.3% 66% 12% 22%
Loras College[4] April 7–8, 2014 600 ± 4.0% 80% 4% 14%
Suffolk University[5] April 3–8, 2014 224 ± 6.6% 70% 9% 21%
Public Policy Polling[6] February 20–23, 2014 283 ± 5.8% 70% 11% 18%
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Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Terry Branstad (incumbent) 129,712 83.00
Republican Tom Hoefling 26,284 16.82
Republican Write-In 279 0.18
Total votes 156,275 100
Close

Democratic primary

Summarize
Perspective

Narcisse was disqualified from appearing on the ballot in the Democratic primary following a ruling by the Iowa Supreme Court[8] that upheld a lower court decision that held that Narcisse had not submitted enough valid signatures to be placed on the ballot for the primary election. Narcisse continued his campaign and declared his intention to run for the nomination as a write-in candidate.[9] When he was unsuccessful, he announced that he would be running in the general election as the nominee of the Iowa Party.[10][11]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jack Hatch
Tyler Olson

Individuals

Organizations

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jack Hatch 60,404 99.26
Democratic Write-in 448 0.74
Total votes 60,852 100
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General election

Summarize
Perspective

Candidates

  • Jim Hennager (New Independent Party), administrator, former city councillor and Reform Party nominee for governor in 1998[37]
  • Running mate: Mary Krieg
  • Lee Hieb (Libertarian), orthopedic surgeon[38]
  • Running mate: Ryan Ketelsen, businessman[38]
  • Running mate: Michael Richards, semi-retired businessman[39]

Debates

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[40] Likely R November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] Safe R November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[42] Safe R November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[43] Safe R November 3, 2014
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Jack
Hatch (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44] November 1–3, 2014 1,265 ± 2.8% 51% 40% 5%[45] 5%
54% 43% 4%
Quinnipiac University[46] October 28–November 2, 2014 778 ± 3.5% 52% 41% 2% 6%
Iowa Poll[47] October 28–31, 2014 701 ± 3.7% 59% 35% 2% 4%
YouGov[48] October 25–31, 2014 1,112 ± 4.4% 49% 35% 4% 13%
Fox News[49] October 28–30, 2014 911 ± 3% 53% 36% 5% 6%
Reuters/Ipsos[50] October 23–29, 2014 1,129 ± 3.3% 57% 34% 4% 5%
Quinnipiac[51] October 22–27, 2014 817 ± 3.4% 56% 37% 2% 5%
Loras College[52] October 21–24, 2014 1,121 ± 2.93% 55% 34% 2% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[53] October 16–23, 2014 2,322 ± 3% 50% 37% 0% 13%
NBC News/Marist[54] October 18–22, 2014 772 LV ± 3.5% 59% 36% 2% 4%
1,052 RV ± 3% 58% 34% 2% 6%
Gravis Marketing[55] October 20–21, 2014 964 ± 3% 53% 43% 4%
Monmouth University[56] October 18–21, 2014 423 ± 4.8% 58% 37% 3% 2%
Quinnipiac University[57] October 15–21, 2014 964 ± 3.2% 55% 37% 2% 5%
Suffolk University[58] October 11–14, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 54% 37% 3%[59] 7%
Quinnipiac University[60] October 8–13, 2014 967 ± 3.2% 54% 39% 1% 6%
The Iowa Poll[61] October 3–8, 2014 1,000 ± 3.1% 54% 39% 4%
Magellan[62] October 3, 2014 1,299 ± 2.8% 55% 39% 7%
NBC News/Marist[63] September 27–October 1, 2014 778 LV ± 3.5% 58% 36% 1% 5%
1,093 RV ± 3% 58% 35% 1% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[64] September 20–October 1, 2014 2,359 ± 2% 52% 39% 0% 9%
Gravis Marketing[65] September 29–30, 2014 522 ± 4% 51% 43% 6%
Public Policy Polling[66] September 25–28, 2014 1,192 ± 2.8% 50% 36% 4%[67] 9%
52% 38% 10%
Iowa Poll[68] September 21–24, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 48% 34% 6%[69] 12%
Rasmussen Reports[70] September 17–18, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 40% 3% 10%
FOX News[71] September 14–16, 2014 600 ± 4% 50% 37% 4% 8%
Quinnipiac[72] September 10–15, 2014 1,167 ± 2.9% 60% 37% 1% 3%
Loras College[73] September 2–5, 2014 1,200 ± 2.82% 56% 34% 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[74] August 18–September 2, 2014 1,764 ± 3% 51% 38% 1% 10%
Suffolk[75] August 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 47% 35% 2%[76] 16%
Public Policy Polling[77] August 22–24, 2014 915 ± 3.2% 48% 35% 5%[45] 12%
50% 37% 13%
Rasmussen Reports[70] August 11–12, 2014 750 ± 4% 52% 35% 6% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[78] July 5–24, 2014 2,044 ± 2.7% 51% 40% 1% 8%
Gravis Marketing[79] July 17–18, 2014 1,179 ± 3% 50% 42% 9%
NBC News/Marist[80] July 7–13, 2014 1,599 ± 2.5% 53% 38% 1% 9%
Quinnipiac[81] June 12–16, 2014 1,277 ± 2.7% 47% 38% 1% 14%
Vox Populi Polling[82] June 4–5, 2014 665 ± 3.8% 51% 40% 9%
Loras College[83] June 4–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 52% 38% 11%
Rasmussen Reports[70] June 4–5, 2014 750 ± 4% 49% 40% 2% 8%
Global Strategy Group[84] May 13–15, 2014 602 ± 4% 47% 40% 13%
Public Policy Polling[3] May 15–19, 2014 914 ± 3.3% 48% 40% 12%
Victory Enterprises[85] April 30–May 1, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 48% 33% 20%
Hickman Analytics[86] April 24–30 500 ± 4.4% 50% 40% 10%
Vox Populi Polling[87] April 22–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 45% 43% 12%
Public Policy Polling[88] April 19–20, 2014 677 ± 3.8% 43% 38% 19%
Suffolk University[89] April 3–8, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 42% 32% 2%[90] 24%
Quinnipiac[91] March 5–10, 2014 1,411 ± 2.6% 46% 35% 1% 17%
Selzer & Co.[92] February 23–26, 2014 703 ± 3.7% 44% 29% 27%
Public Policy Polling[6] February 20–23, 2014 869 ± 3.3% 48% 36% 15%
Quinnipiac[93] December 10–15, 2013 1,617 ± 2.4% 49% 33% 1% 17%
Selzer & Co.[94] December 8–11, 2013 325 ± ?% 52% 29% 8% 11%
Public Policy Polling[95] July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 47% 35% 18%
Selzer & Co.[96] June 2–5, 2013 591 ± 4% 55% 27% 9% 9%
Public Policy Polling[97] February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 48% 33% 19%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Bruce
Braley (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[97] February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 47% 41% 11%
Public Policy Polling[98] May 3–6, 2012 1,181 ± 2.85% 44% 40% 16%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Chet
Culver (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[95] July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 47% 42% 11%
Public Policy Polling[97] February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 50% 40% 10%
Public Policy Polling[98] May 3–6, 2012 1,181 ± 2.85% 44% 42% 14%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Michael
Gronstal (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[95] July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 50% 36% 14%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Bob
Krause (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac[93] December 10–15, 2013 1,617 ± 2.4% 49% 31% 1% 19%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Dave
Loebsack (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[97] February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 48% 38% 14%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Tyler
Olson (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac[93] December 10–15, 2013 1,617 ± 2.4% 50% 32% 1% 17%
Selzer & Co.[94] December 8–11, 2013 325 ± ?% 51% 28% 8% 13%
Public Policy Polling[95] July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 47% 33% 20%
Public Policy Polling[97] February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 47% 31% 22%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Tom
Vilsack (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[97] February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 47% 46% 8%
Public Policy Polling[98] May 3–6, 2012 1,181 ± 2.85% 43% 46% 11%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Hoefling (R)
Jack
Hatch (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[3] May 15–19, 2014 914 ± 3.3% 30% 37% 33%
Suffolk University[99] April 3–8, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 23% 35% 3%[90] 39%
Public Policy Polling[6] February 20–23, 2014 869 ± 3.3% 30% 34% 36%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Chet
Culver (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[95] July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 38% 42% 20%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Michael
Gronstal (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[95] July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 37% 37% 26%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Jack
Hatch (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[95] July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 36% 33% 30%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Tyler
Olson (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[95] July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 36% 32% 32%
Close
Hypothetical polling

} With Branstad

With Hoefling

With Reynolds

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2014 Iowa gubernatorial election[100]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Terry Branstad (incumbent) / Kim Reynolds (incumbent) 666,032 58.99% +6.18%
Democratic Jack Hatch / Monica Vernon 420,787 37.27% −5.94%
Libertarian Lee Deakins Hieb / Tim Watson 20,321 1.80% +0.52%
Independent Jim Hennager / Mary Margaret Krieg 10,582 0.94% N/A
Iowa Jonathan R. Narcisse / Michael L. Richards 10,240 0.91% −0.95%
n/a Write-ins 1,095 0.09% n/a
Total votes 1,129,057 100.00% n/a
Republican hold
Close

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Branstad won all four congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[101]

More information District, Branstad ...
District Branstad Hatch Representative
1st 55.95% 40.98% Rod Blum
2nd 56.66% 39.85% Dave Loebsack
3rd 56.55% 38.79% David Young
4th 67.25% 29.39% Steve King
Close

References

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