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The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.
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| Turnout | 72.18% 2.32[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Hill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.[2] With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.[3] This was the last time anyone other than Greg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.
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Candidates
Declared
- Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard[5]
- Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext
- Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps[6]
Withdrew
- Larry Jent, state senator[7]
Declined
- John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana[8]
- Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman[8]
- Dave Wanzenried, state senator[9]
- Pat Williams, former U.S. representative[10]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock |
Larry Jent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | 70% | 6% | — | 24% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 76,738 | 86.6 | |
| Democratic | Heather Margolis | 11,823 | 13.4 | |
| Total votes | 88,561 | 100.0 | ||
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Candidates
Declared
- Bob Fanning, retired businessman[13]
- Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative[14]
- Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor and Constitution Party nominee for president in 2008 (dropped out February 2012)[15]
- Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst[18]
- Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator[19]
- Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director[20]
- Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee[21]
- Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party[22]
- Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner[23]
- Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner[24]
- Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol[25]
- Corey Stapleton, former state senator[26]
- Running mate: Bob Keenan, former president of the Montana Senate[27]
Withdrew
- Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate[28]
- Drew Turiano, real estate investor[29][30]
Declined
- Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)[31]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Essmann |
Bob Fanning |
Rick Hill |
Neil Livingstone |
Jim Lynch |
Ken Miller |
Jim O'Hara |
Corey Stapleton |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[32] | April 26–29, 2012 | 403 | ± 4.88% | — | 1% | 33% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 28–30, 2011 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 5% | 1% | 37% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 35% |
Results
Hill
- Hill—51-60%
- Hill—41-50%
- Hill—31-40%
- Hill—21-30%
Stapleton
- Stapleton—31-40%
- Stapleton—21-30%
Miller
- Miller—51-60%
- Miller—41-50%
- Miller—31-40%
- Miller—21-30%
O'Hara
- O'Hara—51-60%
- O'Hara—31-40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Hill | 46,802 | 34.4 | |
| Republican | Corey Stapleton | 24,661 | 18.1 | |
| Republican | Ken Miller | 24,496 | 18.0 | |
| Republican | Jim O'Hara | 16,653 | 12.2 | |
| Republican | Neil Livingstone | 12,038 | 8.8 | |
| Republican | Jim Lynch | 8,323 | 6.1 | |
| Republican | Bob Fanning | 3,087 | 2.3 | |
| Total votes | 136,060 | 100.0 | ||
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Candidates
- Steve Bullock (D), Montana attorney general
- Running mate: John Walsh, brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
- Rick Hill (R), former U.S. representative
- Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator
- Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman[34]
- Running mate: Marc Mulcahy[14]
Debate
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[35] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[37] | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[38] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[39] | September 27 – November 3, 2012 | November 3, 2012 | 44.0% | 45.7% | 10.3% | Hill +1.7% |
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[40] | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon[41] | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling[42] | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 7% |
| Montana State University[43] | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 40% | 2% | 20% |
| Mason-Dixon[44] | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 43% | 2% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[45] | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 39% | 8% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 39% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 38% | 39% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 39% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[47] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 41% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 33% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 40% | — | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 33% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 42% | 30% | — | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 33% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Neil Livingstone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 41% | 29% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[32] | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 40% | 31% | — | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 34% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 39% | — | 35% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Neil Livingstone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 30% | — | 44% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 25% | 33% | — | 42% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 31% | 33% | — | 36% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 40% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 35% | — | 35% |
Hypothetical polling
With Bohlinger
With Bullock
With Jent
With Wanzenried
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 236,450 | 48.90% | −16.57% | |
| Republican | Rick Hill | 228,879 | 47.34% | +14.82% | |
| Libertarian | Ron Vandevender | 18,160 | 3.76% | +1.75% | |
| Total votes | 483,489 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Beaverhead (largest city: Dillon)
- Broadwater (largest city: Townsend)
- Carbon (largest city: Red Lodge)
- Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
- Custer (largest city: Miles City)
- Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
- Dawson (Largest city: Glendive)
- Fallon (largest city: Baker)
- Fergus (largest city: Lewistown)
- Flathead (largest city: Kalispell)
- Golden Valley (largest city: Ryegate)
- Granite (largest city: Philipsburg)
- Jefferson (largest city: Clancy)
- Judith Basin (largest city: Stanford)
- Liberty (largest city: Chester)
- Lincoln (largest city: Libby)
- Madison (largest city: Ennis)
- McCone (largest city: Circle)
- Mineral (largest city: Superior)
- Park (largest city: Livingston)
- Phillips (largest city: Malta)
- Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
- Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
- Prairie (largest city: Terry)
- Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
- Richland (largest city: Sidney)
- Rosebud (largest city: Colstrip)
- Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
- Sheridan (Largest city: Plentywood)
- Stillwater (largest city: Columbus)
- Teton (largest city: Choteau)
- Toole (largest city: Shelby)
- Treasure (largest city: Hysham)
- Valley (largest city: Glasgow)
- Wheatland (largest city: Harlowton)
- Wibaux (largest city: Wibaux)
- Yellowstone (largest city: Billings)
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