2010 Idaho gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2010 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2010 Idaho gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter won re-election, defeating his Democratic opponent Keith G. Allred.

2010 Idaho gubernatorial election

← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →

Nominee Butch Otter Keith G. Allred Jana Kemp Party Republican Democratic Independent Popular vote 267,483 148,680 26,655 Percentage 59.11% 32.85% 5.89%

County results Otter:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Allred:      40–50%      50–60%

Governor before election Butch Otter Republican Elected Governor Butch Otter Republican

A former Lieutenant Governor and U.S. Representative, Otter won an open seat race in 2006 against Democratic Party nominee Jerry Brady with 52.67% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

• Walt Bayes, perennial candidate
• Fred Nichols
• Butch Otter, Governor of Idaho^[1]
• Pete Peterson (endorsed independent candidate Jana Kemp, but still filed for the primary^[2])
• Rex Rammell, veterinarian, conservative activist and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008^[3]
• Sharon Ullman, Ada County Commissioner^[4]
• Tamara Wells

Campaign

Both Rammell and Ullman sought support from followers of the Tea Party movement by criticizing Otter's 2009 attempt to raise Idaho's gas tax.^[5]

In August 2009, Rammell drew criticism for joking about buying a license to hunt President Barack Obama.^[6]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Walt Bayes	Butch Otter	Ron"Pete" Peterson	Rex Rammell	Sharon Ullman	Tamara Wells	Un- decided
Mason-Dixon (report)	May 17–19, 2010	625	± 4.0%	1%	60%	3%	6%	4%	1%	25%

Results

Results by county:

  Otter—70–80%

  Otter—60–70%

  Otter—50–60%

  Otter—40–50%

  Rammell—40–50%

  Rammell—50–60%

Republican primary results^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Butch Otter (incumbent)	89,117	54.6
	Republican	Rex Rammell	42,436	26.0
	Republican	Sharon Ullman	13,749	8.4
	Republican	Pete Peterson	8,402	5.2
	Republican	Walt Bayes	4,825	3.0
	Republican	Tamara Wells	4,544	2.8
	Republican	Fred Nichols	38	0.0
Total votes			163,111	100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Keith G. Allred, activist and mediator^[8]
• Lee Chaney, laborer^[9]

Declined

• Jerry Brady, nominee for governor in 2002 and 2006^[10]

Results

Results by county:

  Allred—80–90%

  Allred—70–80%

  Allred—60–70%

  Allred—50–60%

Democratic primary results^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Keith Allred	22,386	81.7
	Democratic	Lee Chaney	5,026	18.3
Total votes			27,412	100

Third party candidates

Libertarian Party

• Ted Dunlap

Independents

• Jana Kemp, former Republican State Representative^[2]
• Pro-Life (formerly known as Marvin Richardson), organic strawberry farmer, Constitution Party nominee for governor in 2006 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008^[11]

General election

Campaign

Between January 1 and May 9, 2010, Allred led Otter in fundraising, having raised $241,000 to Otter's $193,000. Allred said, "We are picking up momentum and are right where we want to be." However, Otter limited his fundraising activity while the Idaho Legislature was in session.^[12]

Allred has criticized Otter for backing cuts to public education spending, which led the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry to launch a website attacking Allred.^[5]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[13]	Safe R	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[14]	Safe R	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[15]	Safe R	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16]	Likely R	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[17]	Likely R	October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Butch Otter (R)	Keith Allred (D)
Rasmussen Reports[18]	August 31, 2010	52%	36%
Rasmussen Reports[19]	July 15, 2010	53%	36%
Rasmussen Reports[20]	May 11, 2010	54%	32%
Rasmussen Reports[20]	March 23, 2010	60%	28%

Results

Idaho gubernatorial election, 2010^[21]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Butch Otter (incumbent)	267,483	59.11%	+6.44%
	Democratic	Keith G. Allred	148,680	32.85%	−11.25%
	Independent	Jana M. Kemp	26,655	5.89%
	Libertarian	Ted Dunlap	5,867	1.30%	−0.31%
	Independent	Pro-Life	3,850	0.85%	−0.77%
Majority			118,803	26.25%	+17.69%
Turnout			452,535
	Republican hold		Swing

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Ada (largest municipality: Boise)
• Bannock (largest municipality: Pocatello)
• Nez Perce (Largest city: Lewiston)
• Shoshone (Largest city: Kellogg)
• Valley (Largest city: McCall)