List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election

The 2024 United Kingdom general election was held on 4 July 2024. This list shows the most marginal seats, ie those needing the smallest swing to be won by each of the political parties, according to notional results from the previous election in 2019, as applied to the 2024 constituency boundaries.^[1][2] The term "target seats" is sometimes used to describe seats requiring a low swing, but it is also used to refer to the seats on which a party has chosen to "target" its campaigning. The list of a party's target seats is not made public.^[3][4]

Owing to boundary changes following the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, these target seats are determined by notional results of the previous election using the new constituencies as if they were contested in 2019.^[5]

List by party

Conservative

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Conservatives^[6]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Warrington South[note 1]		Labour Party	0.06%		Labour Party
2	Coventry North West		Labour Party	0.22%		Labour Party
3	Kensington and Bayswater[note 2]		Labour Party	0.36%		Labour Party
4	Alyn and Deeside		Labour Party	0.39%		Labour Party
5	Wirral West		Labour Party	0.41%		Labour Party
6	Beckenham and Penge[note 3]		Labour Party	0.52%		Labour Party
7	Heywood and Middleton North[note 4]		Labour Party	0.80%		Labour Party
8	Dagenham and Rainham		Labour Party	0.80%		Labour Party
9	Coventry South[note 5]		Labour Party	0.86%		Labour Party
10	Warwick and Leamington		Labour Party	1.12%		Labour Party
11	Bedford		Labour Party	1.19%		Labour Party
12	Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley[note 5]		Labour Party	1.31%		Labour Party
13	Doncaster Central		Labour Party	1.38%		Labour Party
14	Ceredigion Preseli[note 5][note 6]		Plaid Cymru	1.40%		Plaid Cymru
15	Rawmarsh and Conisbrough[note 5]		Labour Party	1.55%		Labour Party
16	Chesterfield		Labour Party	1.61%		Labour Party
17	Oldham East and Saddleworth		Labour Party	1.62%		Labour Party
18	Warrington North		Labour Party	1.63%		Labour Party
19	Canterbury		Labour Party	1.89%		Labour Party
20	Halifax		Labour Party	1.99%		Labour Party
21	Newport West and Islwyn[note 5]		Labour Party	2.06%		Labour Party
22	Perth and Kinross-shire[note 5]		Scottish National Party	2.09%		Scottish National Party
23	Cramlington and Killingworth[note 5][note 7]		Labour Party	2.24%		Labour Party
24	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock[note 5]		Scottish National Party	2.50%		Labour Party
25	Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[note 5]		Scottish National Party	2.56%		Scottish National Party
26	Doncaster North		Labour Party	2.58%		Labour Party
27	Nottingham North and Kimberley		Labour Party	2.89%		Labour Party
28	Gower		Labour Party	2.93%		Labour Party
29	Leeds East		Labour Party	3.06%		Labour Party
30	Leeds West and Pudsey[note 5][note 8]		Labour Party	3.09%		Labour Party
31	Wolverhampton South East		Labour Party	3.10%		Labour Party
32	Tynemouth		Labour Party	3.26%		Labour Party
33	Bradford South		Labour Party	3.34%		Labour Party
34	Croydon East[note 5]		Labour Party	3.37%		Labour Party
35	Sunderland Central		Labour Party	3.41%		Labour Party
36	Stalybridge and Hyde		Labour Party	3.48%		Labour Party
37	Lothian East		Scottish National Party[note 9]	3.62%		Labour Party
38	Houghton and Sunderland South		Labour Party	3.65%		Labour Party
39	Kingston upon Hull East		Labour Party	3.67%		Labour Party

Other seats gained and lost in by-elections

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
46	Hartlepool		Labour Party[note 10]	4.38%		Labour Party
–	Mid Bedfordshire[note 11]		Conservative Party	–		Conservative Party

Labour

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Labour^[7]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Burnley		Conservative Party	0.13%		Labour Party
2	Leigh and Atherton[note 5]		Conservative Party	0.33%		Labour Party
3	High Peak		Conservative Party	0.54%		Labour Party
4	Bangor Aberconwy[note 5]		Conservative Party	0.77%		Labour Party
5	Wolverhampton West[note 5]		Conservative Party	0.92%		Labour Party
6	Bury South		Conservative Party	0.94%		Labour Party
7	Bury North		Conservative Party	1.20%		Labour Party
8	Bolton North East		Conservative Party	1.28%		Labour Party
9	Watford		Conservative Party	1.35%		Labour Party
10	Chingford and Woodford Green		Conservative Party	1.47%		Conservative Party
11	Wycombe		Conservative Party	1.58%		Labour Party
12	Birmingham Northfield		Conservative Party	1.68%		Labour Party
13	Leeds North West[note 12]		Conservative Party	1.80%		Labour Party
14	Stroud		Conservative Party	2.03%		Labour Party
15	Keighley and Ilkley		Conservative Party	2.11%		Conservative Party
16	Stoke-on-Trent Central		Conservative Party	2.11%		Labour Party
17	Lothian East		Scottish National Party[note 9]	2.15%		Labour Party
18	Whitehaven and Workington[note 5]		Conservative Party	2.17%		Labour Party
19	Gedling		Conservative Party	2.22%		Labour Party
20	Walsall and Bloxwich[note 5]		Conservative Party	2.40%		Labour Party
21	Peterborough		Conservative Party	2.47%		Labour Party
22	Vale of Glamorgan		Conservative Party	2.57%		Labour Party
23	West Bromwich[note 5]		Conservative Party	2.60%		Labour Party
24	Mid Cheshire[note 5]		Conservative Party	2.66%		Labour Party
25	Wakefield and Rothwell[note 5][note 13]		Conservative Party	2.67%		Labour Party
26	Ynys Mon		Conservative Party	2.69%		Plaid Cymru
27	Derby North		Conservative Party	2.70%		Labour Party
28	Bridgend		Conservative Party	2.73%		Labour Party
29	Clwyd North[note 5]		Conservative Party	2.76%		Labour Party
30	Lancaster and Wyre[note 5][note 14]		Conservative Party	3.05%		Labour Party
31	Hastings and Rye		Conservative Party	3.36%		Labour Party
32	Eltham and Chislehurst[note 5][note 15]		Conservative Party	3.37%		Labour Party
33	Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy		Scottish National Party[note 16]	3.41%		Labour Party
34	Lincoln		Conservative Party	3.47%		Labour Party
35	Hyndburn		Conservative Party	3.48%		Labour Party
36	Broxtowe		Conservative Party	3.58%		Labour Party
37	Chipping Barnet		Conservative Party	3.60%		Labour Party
38	Northampton North		Conservative Party	3.85%		Labour Party
39	Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor[note 5]		Conservative Party	3.93%		Labour Party
40	Hendon		Conservative Party	4.01%		Labour Party
41	Truro and Falmouth		Conservative Party	4.04%		Labour Party
42	Wrexham		Conservative Party	4.18%		Labour Party
43	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice[note 5][note 17]		Conservative Party	4.35%		Labour Party
44	Blackpool South[note 13]		Conservative Party	4.36%		Labour Party
45	Calder Valley		Conservative Party	4.52%		Labour Party
46	Southampton Itchen		Conservative Party	4.70%		Labour Party
47	Milton Keynes Central[note 5]		Conservative Party	4.70%		Labour Party
48	Clwyd East[note 5]		Conservative Party	5.00%		Labour Party
49	Glasgow North East		Scottish National Party	5.01%		Labour Party
50	Darlington		Conservative Party	5.36%		Labour Party
51	Redcar		Conservative Party	5.45%		Labour Party
52	Ipswich		Conservative Party	5.53%		Labour Party
53	Coatbridge and Bellshill[note 5]		Scottish National Party	5.54%		Labour Party
54	Altrincham and Sale West		Conservative Party	5.61%		Labour Party
55	Swindon South		Conservative Party	5.70%		Labour Party
56	Cities of London and Westminster		Conservative Party	5.73%		Labour Party
57	Airdrie and Shotts		Scottish National Party	5.74%		Labour Party
58	Bolsover		Conservative Party	5.77%		Labour Party
59	Shipley		Conservative Party	5.78%		Labour Party
60	Crewe and Nantwich		Conservative Party	5.79%		Labour Party
61	Rutherglen[note 5][note 18]		Scottish National Party	5.90%		Labour Party
62.	Loughborough		Conservative Party	5.90%		Labour Party
63.	Midlothian		Scottish National Party	5.92%		Labour Party
64.	Rushcliffe		Conservative Party	6.12%		Labour Party
65.	Tipton and Wednesbury[note 5]		Conservative Party	6.14%		Labour Party
66.	Norwich North		Conservative Party	6.25%		Labour Party
67.	Spen Valley[note 5]		Conservative Party	6.42%		Labour Party
68.	Glasgow South West		Scottish National Party	6.43%		Labour Party
69.	Milton Keynes North		Conservative Party	6.55%		Labour Party
70.	Worcester		Conservative Party	6.64%		Labour Party
71.	Glasgow North		Scottish National Party	6.72%		Labour Party
72.	Rother Valley		Conservative Party	6.74%		Labour Party
73.	Southport		Conservative Party	6.80%		Labour Party
74.	Ashfield		Conservative Party[note 19]	6.81%		Reform UK
75.	Shrewsbury[note 5]		Conservative Party	6.96%		Labour Party
76.	East Worthing and Shoreham		Conservative Party	7.03%		Labour Party
77.	Caerfyrddin[note 5]		Conservative Party	7.04%		Plaid Cymru
78.	Penistone and Stocksbridge		Conservative Party	7.28%		Labour Party
79.	Barrow and Furness		Conservative Party	7.43%		Labour Party
80.	Colne Valley		Conservative Party	7.46%		Labour Party
81.	Ceredigion Preseli[note 5]		Plaid Cymru	7.49%		Plaid Cymru
82.	Filton and Bradley Stoke		Conservative Party	7.61%		Labour Party
83.	Glasgow East		Scottish National Party	7.62%		Labour Party
84.	Uxbridge and South Ruislip		Conservative Party	7.77%		Labour Party
85.	Mid and South Pembrokeshire[note 5]		Conservative Party	7.84%		Labour Party
86.	East Thanet[note 5]		Conservative Party	7.91%		Labour Party
87.	Corby and East Northamptonshire[note 5]		Conservative Party	8.05%		Labour Party
88.	Leeds South West and Morley[note 5]		Conservative Party	8.16%		Labour Party
89.	Hamilton and Clyde Valley[note 5]		Scottish National Party	8.18%		Labour Party
90.	Bishop Auckland		Conservative Party	8.19%		Labour Party
91.	Chelsea and Fulham		Conservative Party	8.21%		Labour Party
92.	Crawley		Conservative Party	8.38%		Labour Party
93.	Na h-Eileanan an Iar		Scottish National Party[note 20]	8.42%		Labour Party
94.	Harrow East		Conservative Party	8.59%		Conservative Party
95.	South Ribble		Conservative Party	8.65%		Labour Party
96.	Newcastle-under-Lyme		Conservative Party	8.73%		Labour Party
97.	Bournemouth East		Conservative Party	8.94%		Labour Party
98.	Stevenage		Conservative Party	8.98%		Labour Party
99.	Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke[note 5]		Scottish National Party	9.11%		Labour Party
100.	Glasgow South		Scottish National Party	9.42%		Labour Party
101.	Camborne and Redruth		Conservative Party	9.55%		Labour Party
102.	Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West[note 5]		Scottish National Party	9.64%		Labour Party
103.	Stoke-on-Trent North		Conservative Party	9.65%		Labour Party
104.	Gloucester		Conservative Party	9.67%		Labour Party
105.	Finchley and Golders Green		Conservative Party	9.72%		Labour Party
106.	York Outer		Conservative Party	9.85%		Labour Party
107.	Rossendale and Darwen		Conservative Party	9.85%		Labour Party
108.	Wolverhampton North East		Conservative Party	9.92%		Labour Party
109.	Macclesfield		Conservative Party	9.94%		Labour Party
110.	Blackpool North and Fleetwood[note 5]		Conservative Party	10.11%		Labour Party
111.	Monmouthshire[note 5]		Conservative Party	10.25%		Labour Party
112.	Glasgow West[note 5]		Scottish National Party	10.29%		Labour Party
113.	Scarborough and Whitby		Conservative Party	10.33%		Labour Party
114.	Dunfermline and Dollar[note 5]		Scottish National Party	10.36%		Labour Party
115.	Welwyn Hatfield		Conservative Party	10.40%		Labour Party
116.	Hitchin		Conservative Party	10.42%		Labour Party
117.	West Dunbartonshire		Scottish National Party	10.56%		Labour Party
118.	Bolton West		Conservative Party	10.65%		Labour Party
119.	Scunthorpe		Conservative Party	10.72%		Labour Party
120.	Carlisle		Conservative Party	10.82%		Labour Party
121.	Erewash		Conservative Party	10.86%		Labour Party
122.	Bournemouth West		Conservative Party	10.86%		Labour Party
123.	Edinburgh North and Leith		Scottish National Party	11.03%		Labour Party
124.	Earley and Woodley[note 5]		Conservative Party	11.05%		Labour Party
125.	Glenrothes and Mid Fife[note 5]		Scottish National Party	11.06%		Labour Party
126	Colchester		Conservative Party	11.14%		Labour Party
127	Stockton West		Conservative Party	11.29%		Conservative Party
128	Edinburgh East and Musselburgh[note 5]		Scottish National Party	11.29%		Labour Party
129	Hexham		Conservative Party	11.29%		Labour Party
130	Ossett and Denby Dale[note 5]		Conservative Party	11.34%		Labour Party
131	Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland[note 5]		Conservative Party	11.44%		Labour Party
132	Dwyfor Meirionnydd		Plaid Cymru	11.45%		Plaid Cymru
133	Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme[note 5]		Conservative Party	11.70%		Labour Party
134	Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes[note 5]		Conservative Party	11.71%		Labour Party
135	Pendle and Clitheroe[note 5]		Conservative Party	11.92%		Labour Party
136	Paisley and Renfrewshire South		Scottish National Party	11.96%		Labour Party
137	Basingstoke		Conservative Party	12.02%		Labour Party
138	Bathgate and Linlithgow[note 5]		Scottish National Party	12.11%		Labour Party
139	Dover and Deal[note 5]		Conservative Party	12.13%		Labour Party
140	Penrith and Solway[note 5]		Conservative Party	12.31%		Labour Party
141	Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch[note 5]		Scottish National Party	12.45%		Labour Party
142	Telford		Conservative Party	12.52%		Labour Party
143	Paisley and Renfrewshire North		Scottish National Party	12.56%		Labour Party
144	East Kilbride and Strathaven[note 5]		Scottish National Party	12.60%		Labour Party
145	Livingston		Scottish National Party	12.61%		Labour Party
146	Buckingham and Bletchley[note 5]		Conservative Party	12.68%		Labour Party
147	Morecambe and Lunesdale		Conservative Party	12.75%		Labour Party
148	North East Derbyshire		Conservative Party	13.04%		Labour Party
149	Croydon South		Conservative Party	13.06%		Conservative Party
150	Rugby		Conservative Party	13.10%		Labour Party

Other seats gained and lost in by-elections that Labour is targeting^{[8][note 13]}

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
163	Selby[note 5]		Conservative Party	14.06%		Labour Party
211	Wellingborough and Rushden[note 5]		Conservative Party	17.05%		Labour Party
–	Bristol North East[note 5]		Labour Party	–		Labour Party
–	Hartlepool		Labour Party[note 10]	–		Labour Party
–	Mid Bedfordshire[note 11]		Conservative Party	–		Conservative Party
–	Rochdale		Labour Party[note 21]	–		Labour Party
–	Tamworth		Conservative Party	–		Labour Party

Liberal Democrats

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Liberal Democrats^[9]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Carshalton and Wallington		Conservative Party	0.64%		Liberal Democrats
2	North East Fife[note 22]		Scottish National Party	0.70%		Liberal Democrats
3	Wimbledon		Conservative Party	0.74%		Liberal Democrats
4	Sheffield Hallam		Labour Party	0.92%		Labour Party
5	South Cambridgeshire		Conservative Party	1.25%		Liberal Democrats
6	Cheltenham		Conservative Party	1.25%		Liberal Democrats
7	Mid Dunbartonshire[note 5]		Scottish National Party	1.69%		Liberal Democrats
8	Cheadle		Conservative Party	2.09%		Liberal Democrats
9	Eastbourne		Conservative Party	2.11%		Liberal Democrats
10	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross[note 23]		Scottish National Party	2.64%		Liberal Democrats
11	Esher and Walton		Conservative Party	2.68%		Liberal Democrats
12	Guildford		Conservative Party	2.96%		Liberal Democrats
13	Lewes		Conservative Party	3.71%		Liberal Democrats
14	Hazel Grove		Conservative Party	4.18%		Liberal Democrats
15	Westmorland and Lonsdale[note 24]		Conservative Party	4.74%		Liberal Democrats
16	St Ives		Conservative Party	4.85%		Liberal Democrats
17	Finchley and Golders Green		Conservative Party	5.98%		Labour Party
18	Cities of London and Westminster		Conservative Party	6.05%		Labour Party
19	Winchester		Conservative Party	7.08%		Liberal Democrats
20	Taunton and Wellington[note 5]		Conservative Party	7.84%		Liberal Democrats
21	Harrogate and Knaresborough		Conservative Party	7.91%		Liberal Democrats
22	Cambridge		Labour Party	8.14%		Labour Party
23	Sutton and Cheam		Conservative Party	8.27%		Liberal Democrats
24	Woking		Conservative Party	8.50%		Liberal Democrats
25	Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe[note 5]		Conservative Party	8.70%		Liberal Democrats
26	Eastleigh		Conservative Party	8.72%		Liberal Democrats
27	Didcot and Wantage[note 5]		Conservative Party	9.22%		Liberal Democrats
28	Bermondsey and Old Southwark		Labour Party	9.28%		Labour Party
29	Dorking and Horley[note 5]		Conservative Party	9.44%		Liberal Democrats
30	Godalming and Ash[note 5]		Conservative Party	9.63%		Conservative Party
31	West Dorset		Conservative Party	10.71%		Liberal Democrats
32	Chelsea and Fulham		Conservative Party	10.82%		Labour Party
33	Henley and Thame[note 5]		Conservative Party	11.05%		Liberal Democrats
34	Newbury		Conservative Party	11.24%		Liberal Democrats
35	Wokingham		Conservative Party	11.59%		Liberal Democrats
36	Hitchin[note 5]		Conservative Party	11.67%		Labour Party
37	Hampstead and Highgate[note 5]		Labour Party	11.68%		Labour Party
38	St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire[note 5]		Conservative Party	12.24%		Liberal Democrats
39	Ely and East Cambridgeshire[note 5]		Conservative Party	12.35%		Liberal Democrats
40	South Devon[note 5]		Conservative Party	12.66%		Liberal Democrats
41	Wells and Mendip Hills[note 5]		Conservative Party	12.66%		Liberal Democrats
42	Mid Sussex		Conservative Party	12.90%		Liberal Democrats
43	Frome and East Somerset[note 5][note 13]		Conservative Party	12.92%		Liberal Democrats
44	Thornbury and Yate		Conservative Party	12.96%		Liberal Democrats
45	Chippenham		Conservative Party	13.06%		Liberal Democrats
46	Farnham and Bordon[note 5]		Conservative Party	13.27%		Conservative Party
47	North Devon		Conservative Party	13.33%		Liberal Democrats
48	Glastonbury and Somerton[note 5][note 13]		Conservative Party	13.33%		Liberal Democrats
49	Tunbridge Wells		Conservative Party	13.40%		Liberal Democrats
50	Earley and Woodley[note 5]		Conservative Party	13.48%		Labour Party
51	Harpenden and Berkhamsted		Conservative Party	13.52%		Liberal Democrats
52	Yeovil		Conservative Party	13.52%		Liberal Democrats
53	Ceredigion Preseli		Plaid Cymru	13.64%		Plaid Cymru
54	Bicester and Woodstock		Conservative Party	13.66%		Liberal Democrats
55	Norfolk North		Conservative Party	14.05%		Liberal Democrats
56	Chelmsford		Conservative Party	14.32%		Liberal Democrats
57	Cornwall North		Conservative Party	14.59%		Liberal Democrats
58	Romsey and Southampton North		Conservative Party	14.68%		Conservative Party
59	Epsom and Ewell		Conservative Party	14.68%		Liberal Democrats
60	Surrey Heath		Conservative Party	14.74%		Liberal Democrats
61	Aylesbury		Conservative Party	14.90%		Labour Party
62	Durham, City of		Conservative Party	14.92%		Labour Party
63	Mid Dorset and North Poole		Conservative Party	15.09%		Liberal Democrats
64	Runnymede and Weybridge		Conservative Party	15.12%		Conservative Party
65	South Cotswolds		Conservative Party	15.13%		Liberal Democrats
66	Melksham and Devizes		Conservative Party	15.27%		Liberal Democrats
67	York Outer		Conservative Party	15.48%		Labour Party
68	Horsham		Conservative Party	15.54%		Liberal Democrats
69	Edinburgh North and Leith		Scottish National Party	15.64%		Labour Party
70	Hornsey and Friern Barnet		Labour Party	15.81%		Labour Party
71	Banbury		Conservative Party	15.81%		Labour Party
72	Witney		Conservative Party	16.05%		Liberal Democrats
73	Newton Abbot		Conservative Party	16.65%		Liberal Democrats
74	Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire		Scottish National Party	16.78%		Liberal Democrats
75	Maidenhead		Conservative Party	16.79%		Liberal Democrats
76	Chesham and Amersham		Conservative Party[note 25]	16.96%		Liberal Democrats
77	Brentford and Isleworth		Labour Party	17.00%		Labour Party
78	Bathgate and Linlithgow		Scottish National Party	17.39%		Labour Party
79	Torbay		Conservative Party	17.41%		Liberal Democrats
80	Ealing Central and Acton		Labour Party	17.47%		Labour Party
81	East Grinstead and Uckfield		Conservative Party	17.73%		Conservative Party
82	Newcastle upon Tyne North		Labour Party	17.750%		Labour Party
83	Stratford-on-Avon		Conservative Party	17.76%		Liberal Democrats
88	Tewkesbury		Conservative Party	18.05%		Liberal Democrats
103	Chichester		Conservative Party	19.23%		Liberal Democrats
111	Hampshire North East		Conservative Party	19.77%		Liberal Democrats

Other seats gained in by-elections the Liberal Democrats are targeting^{[10][note 13]}

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
142	Tiverton and Minehead[note 5]		Conservative Party	20.91%		Liberal Democrats
258	Honiton and Sidmouth[note 5]		Conservative Party	24.99%		Liberal Democrats
–	North Shropshire		Conservative Party	–		Liberal Democrats

Reform UK

The target seats for Reform UK are based on results of the Brexit Party in 2019.^[11] The party didn't contest Conservative-held seats so their target seats based on the 2019 result are primarily in North East England and Wales.^[12]

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Reform UK^[13]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Barnsley North[note 5]		Labour Party	4.50%		Labour Party
2	Hartlepool[note 26]		Labour Party	5.92%		Labour Party
3	Barnsley South[note 5]		Labour Party	6.29%		Labour Party
4	Doncaster North		Labour Party	12.82%		Labour Party
5	Easington		Labour Party	14.31%		Labour Party
6	South Shields		Labour Party	14.70%		Labour Party
7	Rotherham		Labour Party	16.07%		Labour Party
8	Normanton and Hemsworth[note 5]		Labour Party	16.19%		Labour Party
9	Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney[note 5]		Labour Party	16.20%		Labour Party
10	Houghton and Sunderland South		Labour Party	16.81%		Labour Party
11	Caerphilly		Labour Party	16.85%		Labour Party
12	Kingston upon Hull East		Labour Party	17.46%		Labour Party
13	Wigan		Labour Party	18.55%		Labour Party
14	Pontypridd		Labour Party	19.09%		Labour Party
15	Neath and Swansea East[note 5]		Labour Party	19.38%		Labour Party
16	Washington and Gateshead South[note 5]		Labour Party	19.60%		Labour Party
17	Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley[note 5]		Labour Party	19.77%		Labour Party
18	Jarrow and Gateshead East[note 5]		Labour Party	19.84%		Labour Party
19	Torfaen		Labour Party	20.12%		Labour Party
20	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice[note 5][note 27]		Conservative Party	20.31%		Labour Party

Other seats Reform UK is targeting

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
32	Ashfield		Conservative Party[note 19]	21.88%		Reform UK
–	Boston and Skegness[14]		Conservative Party	–		Reform UK
–	Clacton[15]		Conservative Party	–		Reform UK

Scottish National Party

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Scottish National Party^[16]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine		Conservative Party	0.79%		Conservative Party
2	Dumfries and Galloway		Conservative Party	1.48%		Conservative Party
3	Aberdeenshire North and Moray East[note 5]		Conservative Party	2.61%		Scottish National Party
4	Edinburgh West		Liberal Democrats	2.62%		Liberal Democrats
5	Gordon and Buchan[note 5][note 28]		Conservative Party	3.39%		Conservative Party
6	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale		Conservative Party	4.26%		Conservative Party
7	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk		Conservative Party	4.84%		Conservative Party
8	Orkney and Shetland		Liberal Democrats	5.41%		Liberal Democrats
9	Edinburgh South		Labour Party	10.18%		Labour Party

Other seats the SNP is targeting

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
–	North East Fife[note 22]		Scottish National Party	–		Liberal Democrats
–	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross[note 23]		Scottish National Party	–		Liberal Democrats
–	Rutherglen[note 5][note 18]		Scottish National Party	–		Labour Party

Plaid Cymru

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Plaid Cymru^[17]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Ynys Mon		Conservative Party	3.48%		Plaid Cymru
2	Caerfyrddin[note 5]		Conservative Party	4.25%		Plaid Cymru
3	Llanelli		Labour Party	9.53%		Labour Party
4	Caerphilly		Labour Party	14.59%		Labour Party
5	Pontypridd		Labour Party	17.87%		Labour Party
6	Neath and Swansea East[note 5]		Labour Party	19.70%		Labour Party

Green Party

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Green Party of England and Wales^[18]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Bristol Central[note 5]		Labour Party	16.23%		Green Party of England and Wales
2	Isle of Wight West[note 5]		Conservative Party	19.30%		Labour Party
6	Frome and East Somerset[note 5]		Conservative Party	21.61%		Liberal Democrats
7	Isle of Wight East[note 5]		Conservative Party	21.70%		Conservative Party
8	Hampstead and Highgate[note 5]		Labour Party	21.99%		Labour Party

Other seats England & Wales Greens are targeting^[19]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
82	Waveney Valley		Conservative Party	26.45%		Green Party of England and Wales
–	North Herefordshire		Conservative Party	–		Green Party of England and Wales

Scottish Greens target seats^[18]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
3	Edinburgh North and Leith		Scottish National Party	20.26%		Labour Party
5	Dunfermline and Dollar[note 5]		Scottish National Party	21.35%		Labour Party
9	East Kilbride and Strathaven[note 5]		Scottish National Party	22.24%		Labour Party
10	Livingston		Scottish National Party	22.34%		Labour Party
11	Bathgate and Linlithgow[note 5]		Scottish National Party	22.46%		Labour Party
12	Edinburgh South West		Scottish National Party	22.60%		Labour Party

Green Party Northern Ireland target seat^[18]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
4	West Tyrone [citation needed]		Sinn Féin	20.53%		Sinn Féin

Northern Irish parties

Marginal seats requiring swings of under 10%:

Ulster Unionist Party^[20]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Fermanagh and South Tyrone		Sinn Féin	0.49%		Sinn Féin
2	South Antrim		Democratic Unionist Party	3.56%		Ulster Unionist Party

Sinn Féin^[21]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Upper Bann		Democratic Unionist Party	8.05%		Democratic Unionist Party

Democratic Unionist Party^[22]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	North Down		Alliance Party of Northern Ireland	3.09%		Independent
2	Belfast North		Sinn Féin	3.88%		Sinn Féin
3	South Down		Sinn Féin	9.06%		Sinn Féin
4	West Tyrone		Sinn Féin	9.20%		Sinn Féin

Social Democratic and Labour Party^[23]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	South Down		Sinn Féin	1.80%		Sinn Féin

Alliance Party of Northern Ireland^[24]

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Winning party 2024
1	Belfast East		Democratic Unionist Party	2.91%		Democratic Unionist Party
2	Strangford		Democratic Unionist Party	7.07%		Democratic Unionist Party
3	East Antrim		Democratic Unionist Party	7.96%		Democratic Unionist Party
4	Lagan Valley		Democratic Unionist Party	8.12%		Alliance Party of Northern Ireland

See also

• List of marginal seats before the 2019 United Kingdom general election
• List of marginal seats before the 2017 United Kingdom general election
• List of marginal seats before the 2015 United Kingdom general election

Notes

1. Warrington South was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
2. Kensington was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
3. Beckenham was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
4. Heywood and Middleton was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
5. New seat
6. Preseli Pembrokeshire was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Plaid Cymru seat under new boundaries
7. Blyth Valley was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but its successor seat is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
8. Pudsey was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Leeds West, is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
9. The incumbent MP is Kenny MacAskill from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
10. This seat was won by the Conservative Party in a by-election.
11. This seat was won by the Labour Party in a a by-election; part of this constituency was transferred to the new Hitchin constituency which is where the incumbent Labour MP stood.
12. Leeds North West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
13. Predecessor seat gained in by-election
14. Wyre and Preston North was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Lancaster and Fleetwood which was won by Labour, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
15. Eltham was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Bromley and Chislehurst which was won by the Conservatives, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
16. The incumbent MP is Neale Hanvey from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
17. Kingston upon Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Haltemprice and Howden, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
18. Rutherglen and Hamilton West was won by Labour in the 2023 by-election, but is still notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries.
19. The incumbent MP is Lee Anderson from Reform UK who defected from the Conservatives
20. The incumbent is Independent MP Angus MacNeil who was expelled from the SNP
21. This seat was won by the Workers Party in a by-election.
22. North East Fife was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat was considered ultra-marginal, but in fact was held by the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with a 13,479-vote (31.5%) majority.
23. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat was considered ultra-marginal but now has a notional SNP majority of over 3,000 votes; in fact it was held by the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with a 10,489-vote (22.8%) majority.
24. Westmorland and Lonsdale was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but was notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries; in fact it was held by the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with a 21,472-vote (43.3%) majority.
25. This seat was won by the Liberal Democrats in a by-election.
26. Hartlepool was won by the Conservatives in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election
27. Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
28. Gordon was won by the SNP in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries

References

1. Leach, Anna; Hoog, Niels de. "UK general election: the seats the Tories will lose if the polls are right". the Guardian. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
2. "Election 2024: The key seats to watch out for as date set for 4 July". Sky News. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
3. Moules, James (5 July 2024). "Leeds North West general election result: Meet new MP Katie White". LabourList. Retrieved 23 July 2024. Labour's target seat list is not public, but this seat ranks 14th on LabourList's unofficial list of targets – based on the smallest swings required versus the 2019 election.
4. Shirreff, Lauren (22 May 2024). "How eight seats could define the general election". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
5. "List of general election top target seats, by party". The Independent. 16 January 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
6. "Conservative Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
7. "Labour Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 10 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
8. Eaton, George (29 January 2024). "How Labour's path to a majority has eased". New Statesman. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
9. "Liberal Democrat Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
10. "Liberal Democrats targeting Tory seats in election fight back". BBC News. 27 January 2023. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
11. "Could Reform UK surge sink Tory election hopes?". BBC News. 16 February 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
12. Penna, Dominic; Corfe, Ollie (28 February 2024). "Six graphs that show Reform UK could be kingmakers at the election". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
13. "Reform UK Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
14. "Reform UK leader Richard Tice to stand in Boston and Skegness". 23 May 2024. Retrieved 23 May 2024.
15. "Nigel Farage has milkshake thrown over him after election campaign launch in Clacton". Sky News. Retrieved 5 June 2024.
16. "SNP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling.
17. "Plaid Cymru Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
18. "Green Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
19. Walker, Peter (5 October 2023). "Greens head to Brighton targeting four seats at next election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
20. "UUP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
21. "Sinn Fein Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
22. "DUP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
23. "SDLP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
24. "Alliance NI Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.