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The 2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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Although not as Republican-leaning as the other Deep South states, apart from its newly competitive neighbor Georgia, South Carolina has a conservative voting pattern. It is located entirely in the larger Bible Belt and is considered a strongly red state at the federal and state level, with the only Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since JFK in 1960 being Georgian Jimmy Carter in 1976. Therefore, the state is expected to vote Republican in 2024, as it has in each presidential election starting in 1980.[2]
On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee approved a new 2024 primary calendar, moving South Carolina to hold its race first on February 3, 2024.[3] Due to protests to the change, the New Hampshire primary was scheduled for January 23, maintaining its traditional "first-in-the-nation" status. However, the primary was deemed non-binding, so the South Carolina primary was the first contest in which candidates could earn delegates.[4] President Biden won the primary in a landslide, winning all 55 of the state's unbound delegates.[5] The Democratic primary recorded low voter turnout among registered voters, with only 4% participating.[6]
The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 3, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 126,493 | 96.2% | 55 | TBD | 55 |
Marianne Williamson | 2,732 | 2.1% | 0 | TBD | 0 |
Dean Phillips | 2,247 | 1.7% | 0 | 0 | |
Total: | 131,472 | 100% | 55 | 10 | 65 |
The South Carolina Republican primary was held on February 24, 2024, the fifth contest in the nationwide Republican primaries. Nikki Haley, who served as the governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017, lost her home state to former president Donald Trump by 20 points. Trump won six congressional districts, earning a total of 47 delegates. Haley won the 1st district, earning three delegates.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 452,496 | 59.79% | 47 | 47 | |
Nikki Haley | 299,084 | 39.52% | 3 | 3 | |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 2,953 | 0.39% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 726 | 0.10% | |||
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 658 | 0.09% | |||
Ryan Binkley | 528 | 0.07% | |||
David Stuckenberg | 361 | 0.05% | |||
Total: | 756,806 | 100.00% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
Source: [9] |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[10] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[11] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[14] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[15] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[16] | Likely R | August 23, 2024 |
538[17] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[18] | Likely R | June 26, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[19][lower-alpha 2] | April 13–21, 2024 | 501 (LV) | – | 52% | 40% | 8% |
Emerson College[20] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
The Citadel[21] | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 35% | 11% |
Winthrop University[22] | February 2–10, 2024 | 1,717 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[23] | February 1–8, 2024 | 679 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
643 (LV) | 54% | 36% | 10% | |||
Echelon Insights[24] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
Blueprint Polling (D)[25] | August 24–25, 2022 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 34% | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Citadel[21] | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Citadel[21] | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Winthrop University[22] | February 2–10, 2024 | 1,717 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 29% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Citadel[21] | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 25% | 20% | 3% | 4% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[19][lower-alpha 2] | April 13–21, 2024 | 501 (LV) | – | 47% | 40% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[19][lower-alpha 2] | April 13–21, 2024 | 501 (LV) | – | 50% | 35% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights[24] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
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