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The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.
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| Turnout | 56.72% | ||||||||||||||||
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Stabenow: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% James: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]
Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) | 1,045,450 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 1,045,450 | 100.00% | ||
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A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[69]
| Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John James |
Sandy Pensler |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research[70] | July 30, 2018 | 413 | ± 5.0% | 44% | 30% | – | 26% |
| EPIC-MRA[71] | July 21–22, 2018 | 1,045 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 38% | – | 23% |
| Emerson College[72] | July 19–21, 2018 | 202 | ± 7.3% | 28% | 28% | – | 44% |
| Marist College[73] | July 15–19, 2018 | 337 | ± 6.3% | 30% | 23% | 1% | 46% |
| National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC)[74] | July 11–14, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 21% | 28% | 10% | 41% |
| Target-Insyght[75] | June 24–26, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 29% | 32% | – | 39% |
| Strategic National (R)[76] | June 16–21, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 18% | 33% | – | 49% |
| Strategic National (R)[77] | June 9–10, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 16% | 29% | – | 54% |
| Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler)[78] | May 28–29, 2018 | 627 | ± 3.8% | 26% | 36% | – | 38% |
| Strategic National (R)[79] | April 21, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 13% | 26% | – | 61% |
| Strategic National (R)[80] | April 4–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 12% | 20% | – | 68% |
| Denno Research[81] | April 2–3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 12% | 16% | – | 72% |
| Strategic National (R)[82] | March 19–20, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 17% | 21% | – | 62% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lena Epstein |
Bob Young |
John James |
Robert Ritchie |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics[85] | September, 2017 | –[a] | – | 7% | 3% | 5% | 29% | 56% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[86] | July 25–27, 2017 | 1,078 | ± 3.1% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 50% | 28% |
| Target-Insyght[87] | July 25–27, 2017 | 344 | ± 5.35 | 8% | 14% | 16% | 33% | 29% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John James | 518,564 | 54.67% | |
| Republican | Sandy Pensler | 429,885 | 45.32% | |
| Write-in | 57 | <0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 948,506 | 100.00% | ||
The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Debbie Stabenow (D) | $17,449,325.17 | $15,720,981.25 | $2,842,613.58 |
| John James (R) | $9,838,137.84 | $7,953,403.16 | $1,884,735.02 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[91] | |||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[92] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[93] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[94] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[95] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[96] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[97][b] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
John James (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research[115] | November 5, 2018 | 827 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 46% | 1% | 4% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[116] | November 2–5, 2018 | 1,817 | ± 2.3% | 53% | 44% | 1% | 2% |
| Mitchell Research[117] | November 4, 2018 | 701 | ± 3.7% | 53% | 46% | 0% | 1% |
| Change Research[118] | November 2–4, 2018 | 880 | – | 49% | 47% | 3%[119] | – |
| Research Co.[120] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 36% | 1% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing[121] | October 29–30, 2018 | 764 | ± 3.6% | 54% | 41% | – | 6% |
| Glengariff Group[122] | October 25–27, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 36% | 3%[123] | 8% |
| Emerson College[124] | October 24–26, 2018 | 822 | ± 3.6% | 52% | 43% | 1% | 4% |
| Mitchell Research[125] | October 25, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 52% | 46% | 0% | 2% |
| Target-Insyght[126] | October 22–24, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.0% | 53% | 43% | 4%[127] | 1% |
| EPIC-MRA[128] | October 18–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 5% | 4% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[129][A] | October 20–22, 2018 | 605 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 41% | 4% | 7% |
| Michigan State University[130] | October 13–22, 2018 | 169 | – | 49% | 42% | – | – |
| Marketing Resource Group[131] | October 14–18, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 37% | – | 5% |
| Mitchell Research[132] | September 30 – October 7, 2018 | 654 | ± 3.8% | 51% | 42% | – | 8% |
| Glengariff Group[133] | September 30 – October 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 35% | 3% | 10% |
| EPIC-MRA[134] | September 21–25, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 33% | 5% | 6% |
| Ipsos[135] | September 14–24, 2018 | 1,150 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 35% | 4% | 6% |
| Target-Insyght[136] | September 10–14, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 40% | – | – |
| Mitchell Research[137] | September 12–13, 2018 | 1,009 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Strategic National (R)[138] | September 8–9, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 53% | 35% | – | 11% |
| Glengariff Group[139] | September 5–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 33% | 2% | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing[140] | August 14–16, 2018 | 647 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 35% | – | 14% |
| Strategic National (R)[141] | August 13–14, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 50% | 35% | 2% | 13% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[142][A] | August 11–14, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.1% | 49% | 38% | 3% | 9% |
| Emerson College[143] | July 19–21, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.3% | 47% | 29% | 8% | 17% |
| Marist College[73] | July 15–19, 2018 | 886 | ± 3.9% | 55% | 37% | 1% | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[144] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 978 | ± 5.0% | 54% | 42% | – | 4% |
| Glengariff Group[145] | January 16–19, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 30% | – | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Sandy Pensler (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[146] | July 19–21, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.3% | 48% | 32% | 7% | 13% |
| Marist College[73] | July 15–19, 2018 | 886 | ± 3.9% | 52% | 37% | 1% | 10% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[144] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 978 | ± 5.0% | 53% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Glengariff Group[145] | January 16–19, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 30% | – | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[147] | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 2,012 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Robert Ritchie (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell/Rosetta Stone[148] | October 1, 2017 | 558 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
| Zogby Analytics[149] | September 19, 2017 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| Marketing Resource Group[150] | September 13–18, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| Target-Insyght[151] | July 25–27, 2017 | 822 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[86] | July 25–27, 2017 | 1,078 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
with Sandy Pensler
with generic Democrat and Republican
with Robert Ritchie (a.k.a. Kid Rock)
Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[152] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats. James once again ran unsuccessfully for the other Senate seat in 2020, as he was defeated by incumbent Gary Peters. James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) | 2,214,478 | 52.26% | −6.54% | |
| Republican | John James | 1,938,818 | 45.76% | +7.78% | |
| Green | Marcia Squier | 40,204 | 0.95% | +0.35% | |
| Constitution | George Huffman III | 27,251 | 0.65% | +0.09% | |
| Natural Law | John Howard Wilhelm | 16,502 | 0.39% | +0.15% | |
| Write-in | 18 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 4,237,271 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Both Stabenow and James won 7 of 14 congressional districts.[154]
| District | James | Stabenow | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 54.39% | 43.44% | Jack Bergman |
| 2nd | 55.19% | 42.52% | Bill Huizenga |
| 3rd | 51.08% | 46.67% | Justin Amash |
| 4th | 56.73% | 41.01% | John Moolenaar |
| 5th | 43.05% | 54.73% | Dan Kildee |
| 6th | 50.37% | 47.18% | Fred Upton |
| 7th | 52.94% | 45.02% | Tim Walberg |
| 8th | 49.0% | 49.37% | Elissa Slotkin |
| 9th | 39.7% | 58.46% | Andy Levin |
| 10th | 58.1% | 40.1% | Paul Mitchell |
| 11th | 47.76% | 50.87% | Haley Stevens |
| 12th | 31.93% | 66.32% | Debbie Dingell |
| 13th | 17.8% | 79.87% | Rashida Tlaib |
| 14th | 19.55% | 78.9% | Brenda Lawrence |
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