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The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the election of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
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 Lujan Grisham: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Pearce: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates (57.2% to 42.8%) was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.
At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.
However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system."[1]
The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents (280,000), who do not vote in the primary election.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Pearce | 75,162 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 75,162 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Michelle Garcia Holmes | 67,681 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 67,681 | 100.00% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Apodaca |
Joe Cervantes |
Michelle Lujan Grisham |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling, Inc. | May 20–24, 2018 | 444 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 15% | 9% | 57% | – | 19% |
| GQR Research (D)[A] | February 14–19, 2018 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 13% | 6% | 72% | 2%[b] | 6% |
| GQR Research (D)[B] | October 12–18, 2017 | 446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 10% | 3% | 75% | 2%[b] | 10% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Michelle Lujan Grisham | 116,754 | 66.38% | |
| Democratic | Jeff Apodaca | 38,975 | 22.16% | |
| Democratic | Joe Cervantes | 20,169 | 11.47% | |
| Total votes | 175,898 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Howie Morales | 75,828 | 47.10% | |
| Democratic | Rick Miera | 51,202 | 31.81% | |
| Democratic | Billy Garrett | 33,949 | 21.09% | |
| Total votes | 160,979 | 100.00% | ||
Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico.[43] Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot.[44]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Bob Walsh (write-in) | 175 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 175 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Robin Dunn (write-in) | 177 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 177 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[89] | Lean D (flip) | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[90] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[91] | Likely D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[92] | Lean D (flip) | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[93] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[94] | Lean D (flip) | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[95] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[96][c] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[97] | Likely D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[98] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve Pearce (R) |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 (V) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 53% | 6% |
| Research & Polling, Inc. | October 26 – November 1, 2018 | 993 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 53% | 4% |
| Carroll Strategies | October 29, 2018 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| Emerson College | October 24–26, 2018 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 53% | 4% |
| GQR Research (D)[A] | October 22–26, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 53% | 4% |
| Pacific Market Research | October 19–24, 2018 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
| NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[C] | September 20–24, 2018 | 932 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Research & Polling, Inc. | September 7–13, 2018 | 966 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 50% | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[D] | August 27–30, 2018 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 52% | 5% |
| GQR Research (D)[A] | August 18–22, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 52% | – |
| Emerson College | August 17–18, 2018 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[E] | April 9–12, 2018 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| The Tarrance Group (R) | May 20–23, 2017 | 605 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve Pearce (R) |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Bob Walsh (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSON Opinion Strategy (L) | July 2018 | 500 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 7% | 11% |
| SurveyUSA | June 19–23, 2018 | 535 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 51% | 3% | 8% |
| Carroll Strategies | June 15–16, 2018 | 1,199 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 51% | 3% | 4% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Michelle Lujan Grisham | 398,368 | 57.20% | +14.42% | |
| Republican | Steve Pearce | 298,091 | 42.80% | −14.42% | |
| Majority | 100,277 | 14.40% | |||
| Total votes | 696,459 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | +28.84% | |||
| County[99] | Michelle Lujan Grisham Democratic |
Steve Pearce Republican |
Margin | Total votes cast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 149,480 | 62.10% | 91,221 | 37.90% | 58,259 | 24.20% | 240,701 |
| Catron | 511 | 27.73% | 1,332 | 72.27% | -821 | -44.55% | 1,843 |
| Chaves | 5,348 | 32.02% | 11,352 | 67.98% | -6,004 | -35.95% | 16,700 |
| Cibola | 3,988 | 55.94% | 3,141 | 44.06% | 847 | 11.88% | 7,129 |
| Colfax | 2,327 | 49.91% | 2,335 | 50.09% | -8 | -0.17% | 4,662 |
| Curry | 3,106 | 30.41% | 7,107 | 69.59% | -4,001 | -39.18% | 10,213 |
| De Baca | 229 | 28.06% | 587 | 71.94% | -358 | -43.87% | 816 |
| Doña Ana | 36,954 | 60.64% | 23,985 | 39.36% | 12,969 | 21.28% | 60,939 |
| Eddy | 4,631 | 29.29% | 11,178 | 70.71% | -6,547 | -41.41% | 15,809 |
| Grant | 7,043 | 59.72% | 4,750 | 40.28% | 2,293 | 19.44% | 11,793 |
| Guadalupe | 1,021 | 60.27% | 673 | 39.73% | 348 | 20.54% | 1,694 |
| Harding | 178 | 37.24% | 300 | 62.76% | -122 | -25.52% | 478 |
| Hidalgo | 785 | 48.25% | 842 | 51.75% | -57 | -3.50% | 1,627 |
| Lea | 3,086 | 22.15% | 10,845 | 77.85% | -7,759 | -55.70% | 13,931 |
| Lincoln | 2,625 | 33.48% | 5,216 | 66.52% | -2,591 | -33.04% | 7,841 |
| Los Alamos | 6,005 | 58.61% | 4,240 | 41.39% | 1,765 | 17.23% | 10,245 |
| Luna | 2,967 | 48.30% | 3,176 | 51.70% | -209 | -3.40% | 6,143 |
| McKinley | 13,117 | 71.46% | 5,238 | 28.54% | 7,879 | 42.93% | 18,355 |
| Mora | 1,664 | 71.05% | 678 | 28.95% | 986 | 42.10% | 2,342 |
| Otero | 6,450 | 37.73% | 10,644 | 62.27% | -4,194 | -24.53% | 17,094 |
| Quay | 1,144 | 37.03% | 1,945 | 62.97% | -801 | -25.93% | 3,089 |
| Rio Arriba | 9,352 | 73.00% | 3,459 | 27.00% | 5,893 | 46.00% | 12,811 |
| Roosevelt | 1,430 | 30.74% | 3,222 | 69.26% | -1,792 | -38.52% | 4,652 |
| San Juan | 13,347 | 35.78% | 23,961 | 64.22% | -10,614 | -28.45% | 37,308 |
| San Miguel | 7,001 | 75.78% | 2,238 | 24.22% | 4,763 | 51.55% | 9,239 |
| Sandoval | 30,425 | 55.09% | 24,803 | 44.91% | 5,622 | 10.18% | 55,228 |
| Santa Fe | 52,692 | 78.54% | 14,394 | 21.46% | 38,298 | 57.09% | 67,086 |
| Sierra | 1,880 | 39.81% | 2,843 | 60.19% | -963 | -20.39% | 4,723 |
| Socorro | 3,596 | 57.44% | 2,664 | 42.56% | 932 | 14.89% | 6,260 |
| Taos | 11,806 | 81.46% | 2,687 | 18.54% | 9,119 | 62.92% | 14,493 |
| Torrance | 2,048 | 38.17% | 3,317 | 61.83% | -1,269 | -23.65% | 5,365 |
| Union | 415 | 28.15% | 1,059 | 71.85% | -644 | -43.69% | 1,474 |
| Valencia | 11,717 | 48.07% | 12,659 | 51.93% | -942 | -3.86% | 24,376 |
| Total | 398,368 | 57.20% | 298,091 | 42.80% | 100,277 | 14.40% | 696,459 |
Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts, with Pearce winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[100]
| District | Pearce | Lujan Grisham | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 39% | 61% | Michelle Lujan Grisham |
| Deb Haaland | |||
| 2nd | 53% | 47% | Steve Pearce |
| Xochitl Torres Small | |||
| 3rd | 39% | 61% | Ben Ray Luján |
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