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Mu mikoreshereze rusange, imihindagurikire y’ikirere isobanura ubushyuhe bw’isi cyangwa kwiyongera kubushyuhe kwisi,- kwiyongera kw’ubushyuhe buringaniye ku isi - n'ingaruka zabyo ku miterere y’ikirere ku isi. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe mu buryo bwagutse ikubiyemo n’imihindagurikire yigihe kirekire y’ikirere cy’isi. Ubwiyongere bw'ubushyuhe bwo ku isi burihuta kurusha impinduka zabanjirije iyi, kandi biterwa ahanini n'abantu batwika ibicanwa . Gukoresha lisansi y’ibinyabuzima, gutema amashyamba, hamwe n’ibikorwa bimwe na bimwe by’ubuhinzi n’inganda byongera imyuka ihumanya ikirere, cyane cyane karuboni ya dioxyde na metani . Imyuka ya parike ikurura ubushyuhe isi imurika nyuma yo gushyuha izuba. Umubare munini wiyi myuka ifata ubushyuhe bwinshi mukirere cyo hasi cyisi, bigatuma ubushyuhe bwisi.
Kubera imihindagurikire y’ikirere, ubutayu buragenda bwiyongera, mu gihe ubushyuhe bw’umuriro n’umuriro bigenda bigaragara. Ubushyuhe bwiyongera muri Arctique bwagize uruhare mu gushonga permafrost, umwiherero w’ibarafu no gutakaza urubura rwo mu nyanja. Ubushyuhe bwo hejuru nabwo butera umuyaga mwinshi, amapfa, nibindi bihe bikabije . Imihindagurikire y’ibidukikije mu misozi, amabuye ya korali, na Arctique ihatira amoko menshi kwimuka cyangwa kuzimangana . [1] Nubwo imbaraga zo kugabanya ubushyuhe buzaza zigenda neza, ingaruka zimwe zizakomeza ibinyejana byinshi. Harimo gushyushya inyanja, aside yo mu nyanja no kuzamuka kwinyanja .
Imihindagurikire y’ibihe ibangamira abantu bafite ikibazo cy’ibiribwa n’amazi, kwiyongera kw’umwuzure, ubushyuhe bukabije, indwara nyinshi, ndetse n’ubukungu . Kwimuka kwabantu namakimbirane nabyo birashobora kuba ibisubizo. Ishami ry'Umuryango w'Abibumbye ryita ku Buzima (OMS) ryita imihindagurikire y’ikirere kibangamiye ubuzima bw’isi yose mu kinyejana cya 21. Abaturage barashobora guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere binyuze mu mbaraga nko kurinda inkombe cyangwa kwagura uburyo bwo guhumeka ikirere, ariko ingaruka zimwe ntizishobora kwirindwa. Ibihugu bikennye bifite uruhare runini ku byuka bihumanya ikirere ku isi, nyamara bifite ubushobozi buke bwo guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere .
Ingaruka nyinshi z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere zimaze kugaragara kuri 1.2 ° C (2.2 ° F) urwego rwo gushyuha. Ubushyuhe bwiyongereye buzongera izo ngaruka kandi burashobora gukurura ingingo, nko gushonga k'urubura rwa Greenland . Mu masezerano y’i Paris 2015, ibihugu byose byemeranije gukomeza gushyuha "munsi yimyaka 2 ° C ". Ariko, hamwe n’imihigo yatanzwe mu masezerano, ubushyuhe bw’isi buzakomeza kugera kuri 2.7 ° C (4.9 ° F) mu mpera z'ikinyejana. Kugabanya ubushyuhe kuri 1.5 ° C bizasaba kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu 2030 no kugera kuri 2050 imyuka ihumanya
Kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya bisaba kubyara amashanyarazi aturuka kuri karubone nkeya aho gutwika ibicanwa. Iyi mpinduka ikubiyemo gukuraho amakara y’amashanyarazi na gaze gasanzwe, kongera cyane imikoreshereze y’umuyaga, izuba, n’ubundi bwoko bw’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu, no kugabanya ikoreshwa ry’ingufu . Amashanyarazi akomoka ku masoko adatanga imyuka ya karubone azakenera gusimbuza ibicanwa biva mu kirere kugira ngo bitwarwe n’amashanyarazi, inyubako zishyushya, n’inganda zikora inganda. Carbone irashobora kandi gukurwa mu kirere, urugero nko kongera amashyamba no guhinga hakoreshejwe uburyo bufata karubone mu butaka .
Mbere ya za 1980, igihe bitari byumvikana neza niba ubushyuhe bwo kongera imyuka ihumanya ikirere bwarushaga imbaraga ubukonje bw’imyuka ihumanya ikirere, abahanga mu bya siyansi bakoresheje iryo jambo ry’imihindagurikire y’ikirere batabishaka bavuga ku ngaruka z’abantu ku kirere.
Mu myaka ya za 1980, ijambo ubushyuhe bw’isi n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere byabaye byinshi. Nubwo ayo magambo yombi rimwe na rimwe akoreshwa mu buryo bumwe, mu buhanga, ubushyuhe bw’isi bwerekana gusa ubushyuhe bw’ubushyuhe bwo hejuru, mu gihe imihindagurikire y’ikirere isobanura impinduka zose z’imiterere y’ikirere ku isi. Ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi - bwakoreshejwe mu 1975 [2] - bwabaye ijambo ryamamaye cyane nyuma y’uko umuhanga mu bumenyi bw’ikirere wa NASA, James Hansen abukoresheje mu buhamya yatanze mu 1988 muri Sena ya Amerika . Kuva mu myaka ya za 2000, imihindagurikire y’ikirere yiyongereye mu mikoreshereze. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe irashobora kandi kwerekeza cyane ku mpinduka zatewe n'abantu cyangwa impinduka kamere mu mateka y'isi.
Abahanga mu bya siyansi, abanyapolitiki ndetse n’itangazamakuru ubu bakoresha ijambo ikibazo cy’ikirere cyangwa ibihe byihutirwa by’ikirere kugira ngo baganire ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, n’ubushyuhe bw’isi aho gukoresha ubushyuhe bw’isi .
Imibare myinshi yigenga yibikoresho byerekana ko ikirere gishyuha. Imyaka icumi ya 2011–2020 yashyushye ku kigereranyo cya 1.09 ° C [0.95–1.20 ° C] ugereranije n’ibanze byabanjirije inganda (1850–1900). Ubushyuhe bwo hejuru buriyongera hafi 0.2 ° C ku myaka icumi, hamwe na 2020 igera ku bushyuhe bwa 1.2 ° C hejuru yigihe cyabanjirije inganda. [31] Kuva mu 1950, iminsi yubukonje nijoro nijoro byagabanutse, kandi iminsi yubushyuhe nijoro byiyongera.
Habayeho ubushyuhe buke hagati yikinyejana cya 18 hagati yikinyejana cya 19. Amakuru y’ikirere muri kiriya gihe aturuka ku miterere y’ikirere, nk'ibiti hamwe n’ibarafu . Inyandiko za Thermometero zatangiye gutanga amakuru ku isi ahagana mu 1850. Uburyo bwamateka yubushyuhe no gukonja, nka Climate Animate ya Medieval hamwe nigihe gito cyibarafu, ntibyigeze bibera icyarimwe mubice bitandukanye. Ubushyuhe bushobora kuba bwarageze hejuru nko mu mpera z'ikinyejana cya 20 mu turere duto. Habayeho ibice byabanjirije amateka yubushyuhe bwisi, nka Paleocene - Eocene Thermal Maximum . Nyamara, ubwiyongere bugezweho bwiyongera bwubushyuhe hamwe nubushyuhe bwa CO bwihuse cyane kuburyo ibintu bitunguranye bya geofiziki mumateka yisi bitegereye igipimo kiriho.
Ibimenyetso by'ubushyuhe buva mu bipimo by'ubushyuhe bwo mu kirere bishimangirwa n'ibindi byinshi byagaragaye. [39] Urugero, harahanuwe kandi harebwa impinduka z’amazi karemano y’amazi, nko kwiyongera inshuro n’ubukonje bw’imvura nyinshi, gushonga kwa shelegi n’ibarafu y’ubutaka, ndetse n’ubushyuhe bw’ikirere bwiyongera. Ibimera n'ibinyabuzima nabyo bitwara muburyo bujyanye n'ubushyuhe; kurugero, ibimera birabya kare mugihe cyizuba. Ikindi kimenyetso cyingenzi ni ugukonjesha ikirere cyo hejuru, byerekana ko imyuka ya parike irimo gufata ubushyuhe hafi yisi kandi ikayirinda gukwirakwira mu kirere. [4]
Uturere twisi dushyushye kubiciro bitandukanye . Igishushanyo cyigenga aho imyuka ihumanya ikirere isohoka, kubera ko imyuka ikomeza igihe kirekire kuburyo ikwirakwira kwisi. Kuva mu bihe byabanjirije inganda, impuzandengo yubushyuhe bwo hejuru yubutaka bwiyongereye hafi inshuro ebyiri nkubushyuhe bwo hejuru bwisi. Ibi biterwa nubushyuhe bunini bwinyanja, kandi kubera ko inyanja itakaza ubushyuhe bwinshi mukumuka . Ingufu zumuriro muri gahunda y’ikirere ku isi ziyongereye hamwe n’ikiruhuko gito kuva byibuze mu 1970, kandi hejuru ya 90% y’izo mbaraga ziyongereye zabitswe mu nyanja . [5] Ahasigaye hashyushye ikirere, ushonga urubura, kandi ususurutsa imigabane. [6]
Amajyaruguru y'Amajyaruguru na Pole y'Amajyaruguru byashyushye cyane kurusha Pole y'Amajyepfo n'Amajyepfo y'isi . Amajyaruguru y’Amajyaruguru ntabwo afite ubutaka bwinshi gusa, ahubwo afite ibihe byinshi byurubura hamwe nubura bwinyanja . Mugihe iyi mibumbe ihindagurika yerekana urumuri rwinshi rukaba umwijima nyuma yuko urubura rushonga, batangira gukuramo ubushyuhe bwinshi . Ububiko bwa karubone bwaho bwirabura kuri shelegi na barafu nabyo bigira uruhare mubushyuhe bwa Arctique. Ubushyuhe bwa Arctique buriyongera hejuru yikubye kabiri igipimo cyisi yose . Gushonga kw'ibarafu hamwe n'ibibarafu muri Arctique bihagarika urujya n'uruza rw'inyanja, harimo n'umugezi wa Kigobe wagabanutse, bikomeza guhindura ikirere.
Imiterere yikirere ihura ninzinguzingo zitandukanye zishobora kumara imyaka (nka El Niño - Oscillation y'Amajyepfo (ENSO)), imyaka mirongo cyangwa ibinyejana. Izindi mpinduka ziterwa nubusumbane bwingufu "ziva" mumiterere yikirere, ariko ntabwo buri gihe hanze yisi. Ingero z’agahato ko hanze zirimo impinduka ziterwa nubushyuhe bwa gaze ya parike, urumuri rwizuba, kuruka kwikirunga, hamwe nuburyo butandukanye mubizenguruka isi kuzenguruka izuba.
Kugirango hamenyekane uruhare rwabantu mu mihindagurikire y’ikirere, hagomba kuvaho imihindagurikire y’ikirere imbere n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Uburyo bw'ingenzi ni ukumenya "igikumwe" kidasanzwe ku mpamvu zose zishobora gutera, hanyuma ugereranye ibyo bitoki hamwe nuburyo bugaragara bw’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Kurugero, guhatira izuba birashobora kuvaho nkimpamvu ikomeye. Urutoki rwarwo rwaba rushyushye mu kirere cyose. Nyamara, ikirere cyo hasi gusa cyarashyushye, kijyanye na gazi ya parike. Uruhare rw’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ruheruka kwerekana ko umushoferi nyamukuru azamuye imyuka ihumanya ikirere, hamwe na aerosole igira ingaruka mbi.
Imyuka ya parike ibonerana ku zuba, bityo ikayemerera kunyura mu kirere kugira ngo ishyushya isi. Isi irabagirana nkubushyuhe, kandi imyuka ya parike ikurura igice cyayo . Uku kwinjiza bidindiza umuvuduko ubushyuhe bwahungira mu kirere, ugafata ubushyuhe hafi yubuso bwisi kandi bugashyuha mugihe runaka. [12] Mbere y’Impinduramatwara mu nganda, ibisanzwe bisanzwe byuka bihumanya ikirere byatumye umwuka uri hafi yubuso ugera kuri 33 ° C hashyushye kuruta uko byari kugenda iyo badahari. [13] Mugihe imyuka y'amazi (~ 50%) n'ibicu (~ 25%) aribyo bigira uruhare runini mubikorwa bya parike, byiyongera nkibikorwa byubushyuhe bityo bikaba ibisubizo . Ku rundi ruhande, imyuka ya gaze nka CO (~ 20%), tropone ya ozone, CFCs na okiside ya nitrous ntabwo biterwa n'ubushyuhe, bityo rero ni imbaraga zo hanze.
Ibikorwa byabantu kuva Revolisiyo yinganda, cyane cyane gukuramo no gutwika ibicanwa biva mu kirere ( amakara, peteroli, na gaze gasanzwe ), byongereye imyuka ya parike mu kirere, bivamo ubusumbane bukabije . Muri 2019, ingufu za CO na metani zariyongereyeho hafi 48% na 160%, kuva mu 1750. Izi nzego za CO zirarenze uko zigeze mugihe icyo aricyo cyose mumyaka miriyoni 2 ishize. Kwishyira hamwe kwa metani birarenze kure cyane uko byari bimeze mumyaka 800.000 ishize. [70]
Kwangiza imyuka ihumanya ikirere ku isi muri 2019 byari bihwanye na 59 toni miliyari ya CO . Muri ibyo byuka, 75% ni CO , 18% ni metani, 4% ni okiside ya nitrous, naho 2% ni gaze ya fluor . Imyuka CO [71] ituruka ahanini ku gutwika ibicanwa kugira ngo bitange ingufu mu gutwara, gukora, gushyushya, n'amashanyarazi. Ibindi byuka bya CO biva mu gutema amashyamba no mu nganda, birimo CO yarekuwe n’imiti yo gukora sima, ibyuma, aluminium, n’ifumbire . Ibyuka bya metani biva mu bworozi, ifumbire, guhinga umuceri, imyanda, amazi mabi, no gucukura amakara, ndetse no gucukura peteroli na gaze . Umwuka wa azote uva ahanini muri mikorobe yangirika y'ifumbire .
N’ubwo uruhare rw’amashyamba rwangiza imyuka ihumanya ikirere, hejuru yubutaka bwisi, cyane cyane amashyamba yacyo, bikomeje kuba imyanda ikomeye ya CO . Uburyo bwo kurohama ku butaka, nko gutunganya karubone mu butaka na fotosintezeza, bikuraho hafi 29% by’imyuka ihumanya ikirere ya CO ku isi. Inyanja nayo ikora nka karubone ikomeye ikoresheje inzira ebyiri. Ubwa mbere, CO ishonga mumazi yo hejuru. Nyuma yaho, kuzenguruka kwinyanja gukwirakwira mu nyanja imbere, aho ikusanyiriza hamwe igihe kimwe murwego rwa karubone . Mu myaka 20 ishize, inyanja yisi yakiriye 20 kugeza 30% bya CO yasohotse.
Guhumanya ikirere, muburyo bwa aerosole, bigira ingaruka ku kirere ku rugero runini. Indege ikwirakwiza kandi ikurura imirasire y'izuba. Kuva mu 1961 kugeza 1990, kugabanuka gahoro gahoro k'izuba ryageze ku isi byagaragaye. Iyi phenomenon izwi cyane nka global dimming, kandi iterwa na aerosole ikomoka kumukungugu, umwanda no gutwika ibicanwa na lisansi. [14] [15] [16] Ku isi hose, aerosole yagabanutse kuva mu 1990 kubera kurwanya umwanda, bivuze ko batagihisha ubushyuhe bwa gaze ya parike.
Aerosole nayo igira ingaruka zitaziguye ku ngengo yimirasire yisi . Sulfate aerosole ikora nka nuclei igicu kandi iganisha ku bicu bifite byinshi kandi bito bitonyanga. Ibi bicu byerekana imirasire yizuba neza kuruta ibicu bifite ibitonyanga bike kandi binini. Bigabanya kandi imikurire yimvura, ituma ibicu bigaragarira kumurasire yizuba. Ingaruka zitaziguye za aerosole nizo nini zidashidikanywaho muguhatira imirasire.
Mugihe ubusanzwe aerosole igabanya ubushyuhe bwisi yerekana urumuri rwizuba, karubone yumukara muri soot igwa kumubura cyangwa urubura birashobora kugira uruhare mubushyuhe bwisi. Ntabwo ibyo byongera gusa kwinjiza izuba, byongera gushonga no kuzamuka kurwego rwinyanja. Kugabanya ububiko bushya bwa karubone muri Arctique bishobora kugabanya ubushyuhe bwisi 0.2 ° C muri 2050.
Abantu bahindura isi cyane cyane kugirango bahinge ubutaka bwubuhinzi . Muri iki gihe, ubuhinzi bufata 34% by'ubutaka bw'isi, mu gihe 26% ari amashyamba, naho 30% akaba adashobora guturwa (ibibarafu, ubutayu, n'ibindi. ). Umubare w'ubutaka bw'amashyamba ukomeje kugabanuka, akaba ari yo mpinduka nyamukuru ikoreshwa ry'ubutaka itera ubushyuhe ku isi. Gutema amashyamba birekura CO iri mu biti iyo byangiritse, byongeye kandi birinda ibyo biti kwinjiza CO nyinshi mugihe kizaza. Impamvu nyamukuru zitera amashyamba ni: guhindura imikoreshereze yubutaka buhoraho kuva mumashyamba kugera kubutaka bwubuhinzi butanga umusaruro nkinka n amavuta yintoki (27%), gutema ibiti byamashyamba / amashyamba (26%), guhinga mugihe gito (24%), n'umuriro (23%).
Ubwoko bwibimera mukarere bigira ingaruka kubushyuhe bwaho. Ihindura uko urumuri rw'izuba rugaruka mu kirere ( albedo ), n'ubushyuhe butakara bitewe no guhumeka . Kurugero, impinduka ziva mumashyamba yijimye zijya mubyatsi bituma ubuso bworoha, bigatuma bugaragaza urumuri rwizuba. Gutema amashyamba birashobora kandi kugira ingaruka kubushyuhe muguhindura irekurwa ryimiti igabanya ibicu, no guhindura imiterere yumuyaga. Mu turere dushyuha kandi dushushe ingaruka nziza ni ugutanga ubushyuhe bugaragara, mugihe ku burebure bwegereye inkingi inyungu ya albedo (nkuko ishyamba risimbuzwa igifuniko cya shelegi) biganisha ku gukonja. [17] Kwisi yose, izi ngaruka zagereranijwe ko zatumye hakonja gato, byiganjemo kwiyongera kwa albedo.
Nkuko izuba ariryo soko ryambere ryingufu zisi, impinduka zumucyo wizuba zigira ingaruka muburyo bwimiterere yikirere. Imirasire y'izuba yapimwe na satelite, kandi ibipimo bitaziguye birahari guhera mu ntangiriro ya 1600. [18] Nta cyerekezo cyigeze kigaragara mu bwinshi bw'ingufu z'izuba zigera ku isi. [19]
Ibirunga biturika biturika byerekana imbaraga nini nini mugihe cyinganda. Iyo kuruka gukomeye bihagije (hamwe na dioxyde de sulfure igera kuri stratosifera), urumuri rwizuba rushobora guhagarikwa igice mumyaka ibiri. Ikimenyetso cy'ubushyuhe kimara hafi kabiri. Mu gihe cy’inganda, ibikorwa by’ibirunga byagize ingaruka zitari nke ku bijyanye n’ubushyuhe bw’isi. Muri iki gihe imyuka y’ibirunga CO <sub id="mwAgI">2</sub> ihwanye na munsi ya 1% y’imyuka ya antropogene ya CO 2 . [99]
Imiterere yimiterere yimiterere yimiterere ntishobora kubyara ubushyuhe bwihuse bwagaragaye mumyaka mirongo ishize iyo urebye gusa itandukaniro ryumusaruro wizuba nibikorwa byibirunga. Ibindi bimenyetso byerekana imyuka ihumanya ikirere itera ubushyuhe bwisi biva mubipimo byerekana ubushyuhe bwikirere cyo hasi ( troposfer ), hamwe no gukonjesha ikirere cyo hejuru ( stratosifera ). Niba imirasire y'izuba ari yo nyirabayazana w'ubushyuhe bwagaragaye, troposse na stratosifike byombi byari gushyuha.
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Igisubizo cy’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku gahato ka mbere cyahinduwe n’ibisubizo: byongerewe no "kwikomeza" cyangwa "ibyiza" kandi bigabanywa no "kuringaniza" cyangwa "bibi" . [21] Ibyingenzi bishimangira ibitekerezo nibitekerezo byamazi-imyuka, ibitekerezo bya ice-albedo, hamwe ningaruka nziza yibicu. [104] Uburyo bwibanze bwo kuringaniza ni ubukonje bukabije, kuko ubuso bwisi butanga ubushyuhe bwinshi mukirere bitewe nubushyuhe bwiyongera. [106] kugabanuka k'ubushyuhe, hari n'ibisubizwa mu cyerekezo cya karubone, nk'ingaruka zifumbire ya CO ku mikurire y'ibihingwa. Kutamenya neza ibyasubiwemo nimpamvu nyamukuru ituma imiterere itandukanye yikirere igaragaza ubunini butandukanye bwubushyuhe kubwinshi bw’ibyuka bihumanya.
Iyo umwuka ushyushye, irashobora gufata ubuhehere bwinshi . Umwuka wamazi, nka gaze ya parike ikomeye, ifata ubushyuhe mukirere. [104] Niba igicu cyiyongereye, urumuri rwizuba ruzagaruka mumwanya, bikonje isi. Niba ibicu bibaye byinshi kandi byoroheje, bikora nka insulator, byerekana ubushyuhe buva hepfo inyuma bukamanuka no gushyushya isi. [109] Ingaruka yibicu nisoko nini yo gutanga ibitekerezo bidashidikanywaho.
Ikindi gitekerezo cyingenzi nukugabanya igifuniko cyurubura hamwe nubura bwinyanja muri Arctique, bigabanya kugaragariza isi. Ingufu nyinshi zizuba ubu zinjiye muri utwo turere, bigira uruhare mu kongera ubushyuhe bw’ubushyuhe bwa Arctique . Arctic amplification nayo irimo gushonga permafrost, irekura metani na CO mukirere. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe irashobora kandi gutuma metani irekurwa mu bishanga, sisitemu yo mu nyanja, hamwe n’amazi meza. [114] Muri rusange, ibisubizo by’ikirere biteganijwe ko bizagenda neza.
Hafi ya kimwe cya kabiri cy’imyuka yatewe na CO yatewe n’ibimera byubutaka ninyanja. Ku butaka, kuzamura CO hamwe nigihe kinini cyo gukura byatumye imikurire ikura. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe yongera amapfa n’ubushyuhe bukabije bibuza imikurire y’ibihingwa, bigatuma bidashidikanywaho niba iyi karuboni izakomeza kwiyongera mu bihe biri imbere. Ubutaka burimo karubone nyinshi kandi burashobora kurekura bimwe iyo bishyushye . Nkuko CO nubushyuhe bwinshi byinjizwa ninyanja, irahindura aside, ihindagurika ryayo kandi phytoplankton ifata karubone nkeya, bikagabanya umuvuduko inyanja ikuramo karubone yo mu kirere. Muri [119], hejuru ya CO hejuru yisi Isi izakuramo igice gito cyibyuka byangiza.
Icyitegererezo cy’ikirere kigaragaza imikorere y’umubiri, imiti, n’ibinyabuzima bigira ingaruka kuri gahunda y’ikirere. Moderi ikubiyemo kandi inzira karemano nkimpinduka zuzenguruka isi, impinduka zamateka mubikorwa byizuba, hamwe no guhatira ibirunga. Icyitegererezo gikoreshwa mukugereranya urugero rwubushyuhe bwoherezwa mu kirere hazaza bizatera igihe hasuzumwe imbaraga z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, hagati yubutaka nikirere.
Imyifatire ifatika yicyitegererezo igeragezwa mugusuzuma ubushobozi bwabo bwo kwigana ibihe byubu cyangwa ibyahise. Ingero zashize zasuzuguye igipimo cyo kugabanuka kwa Arctique kandi zidaha agaciro umuvuduko w’imvura. Ubwiyongere bw'inyanja kuva mu 1990 ntibwigeze busuzumwa mu buryo bwa kera, ariko imiterere ya vuba iremeranya neza n’ubushakashatsi. Isuzumabumenyi ry’ikirere ryasohowe na Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika muri 2017 rivuga ko "imiterere y’ikirere ishobora kuba idaha agaciro cyangwa ikabura uburyo bwo gutanga ibitekerezo".
Igice kinini cyimiterere yikirere cyongera ibintu byabaturage muburyo bworoshye bwikirere. Izi ngero zigereranya uburyo abaturage, ubwiyongere bwubukungu, nogukoresha ingufu bigira ingaruka – no gukorana na – ikirere cy'umubiri. Hamwe naya makuru, izo moderi zirashobora gutanga ibintu byerekana ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Ibi noneho bikoreshwa nkibintu byerekana imiterere yimiterere yikirere hamwe nicyitegererezo cya karubone kugirango hamenyekane uburyo ikirere cyo mu kirere cya gaze ya parike ishobora guhinduka mugihe kizaza. Ukurikije imibereho yubukungu nubukungu bworoheje, moderi zitanga ingufu za CO 2 zo mu kirere zingana hagati ya 380 na 1400 ppm.
Raporo ya gatandatu ya IPCC Raporo yerekana ko ubushyuhe bwisi bushobora kugera kuri 1.0 ° C kugeza 1.8 ° C mu mpera z'ikinyejana cya 21 munsi y’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere . Hagati aho ubushyuhe bwisi bwagera kuri 2.1 ° C kugeza kuri 3.5 ° C, na 3.3 ° C kugeza 5.7 ° C munsi yikirere cyinshi cyane . Ibiteganijwe bishingiye ku cyitegererezo cy’ikirere hamwe no kureba. [135]
Ingengo yimari ya karubone isigaye igenwa no kwerekana icyerekezo cya karubone hamwe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere kuri gaze ya parike. Nk’uko IPCC ibivuga, ubushyuhe bw’isi burashobora kubikwa munsi ya 1.5 ° C hamwe na bibiri bya gatatu amahirwe niba imyuka ihumanya nyuma ya 2018 itarenze 420 cyangwa 570 gigatonnes ya CO . Ibi bihuye nimyaka 10 kugeza 13 yimyuka ihumanya ikirere. Hano hari byinshi bidashidikanywaho kubyerekeye ingengo yimari. Kurugero, irashobora kuba gigatonnes 100 ya CO ntoya kubera metani irekurwa na permafrost nigishanga . Icyakora, biragaragara ko ibikomoka kuri peteroli y’ibinyabuzima ari byinshi cyane ku buryo ibura ryashingirwaho mu kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere mu kinyejana cya 21.
Ingaruka z’ibidukikije z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ni nini kandi igera kure, bigira ingaruka ku nyanja, urubura, n’ikirere. Impinduka zirashobora kubaho buhoro buhoro cyangwa vuba. Ibimenyetso kuri izo ngaruka biva mu kwiga imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu bihe byashize, biturutse ku kwerekana imiterere, no mu bushakashatsi bugezweho. Kuva mu myaka ya za 1950, amapfa nubushyuhe byagaragaye icyarimwe hamwe no kongera inshuro. Ibihe bitose cyangwa byumye mugihe cyimvura cyiyongereye mubuhinde no muri Aziya yuburasirazuba. Igipimo cy’imvura n’ubukomezi bwa serwakira na serwakira birashoboka ko byiyongera, kandi imiterere y’akarere ishobora kwaguka poleward bitewe n’ubushyuhe bw’ikirere. [22] Inshuro za serwakira zo mu turere dushyuha ntiziyongereye bitewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. [23]
Urwego rw'inyanja ku isi ruzamuka bitewe n'ingaruka zo gushonga kw'ibarafu, gushonga kw'ibarafu muri Greenland na Antaragitika, no kwaguka k'ubushyuhe. Hagati ya 1993 na 2020, izamuka ryiyongereye igihe, ugereranije 3.3 ± 0.3 mm ku mwaka. Mu kinyejana cya 21, imishinga ya IPCC ivuga ko mu kirere cyinshi cyane ikirere gishobora kuzamuka kuri 61-110 cm. Ubwiyongere bw'ubushyuhe bwo mu nyanja burimo gutesha agaciro kandi bugatera ubwoba ko hazacukurwa ahantu h'ibarafu ya Antaragitika, hashobora kubaho gushonga cyane ku rubura rwa barafu kandi bikaba bishoboka ko inyanja ya metero 2 yazamuka ikagera kuri 2100 bitewe n’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. [149]
Imihindagurikire y’ibihe yatumye imyaka ibarirwa muri za mirongo igabanuka kandi igabanuka rya barafu yo mu nyanja ya Arctique . Mugihe icyi kitarimo urubura giteganijwe kuba gake kuri 1.5 ° C dogere yubushyuhe, biteganijwe kubaho rimwe mumyaka itatu cyangwa icumi kurwego rwo gushyuha rwa 2 ° C. Ubushyuhe bwo mu kirere CO bwateye impinduka muri chimie yo mu nyanja . Ubwiyongere bwa CO bwasheshwe butera inyanja aside . Byongeye kandi, umwuka wa ogisijeni uragabanuka kuko ogisijeni idashonga mu mazi ashyushye. Uturere twapfuye mu nyanja, uturere dufite ogisijeni nkeya, nazo ziraguka.
Ubushyuhe bukabije bw’ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi byongera ibyago byo kunyura ' ahantu hahanamye ' - imbibi zirenze izo ngaruka zimwe na zimwe ntizishobora kwirindwa nubwo ubushyuhe bwagabanutse. [24] Urugero ni ugusenyuka kw'ibarafu ya Antaragitika y'Iburengerazuba na Greenland, aho ubushyuhe buzamuka 1.5 kugeza 2 ° C irashobora kwiyemeza amabati gushonga, nubwo igihe cyo gushonga kitazwi kandi biterwa nubushyuhe buzaza. [25] Impinduka nini nini zishobora kubaho mugihe gito, nko guhagarika imigezi imwe yinyanja nka Atlantike Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Ingingo zitanga inama zirashobora kandi kubamo kwangirika bidasubirwaho kubidukikije nkibiti byamashyamba ya Amazone hamwe namabuye ya korali. [26]
Ingaruka z'igihe kirekire z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ku nyanja zirimo gushonga urubura, ubushyuhe bw’inyanja, izamuka ry’inyanja, hamwe na aside aside . Mu bihe by’ibinyejana kugeza mu binyejana byinshi, ubunini bw’imihindagurikire y’ikirere buzagenwa cyane cyane n’imyuka ihumanya ikirere CO . Ibi biterwa na CO 'ndende yubuzima bwikirere. Kwakira inyanja CO biratinda bihagije kuburyo aside yo mu nyanja izakomeza kumyaka ibihumbi kugeza ibihumbi. [163] Bivugwa ko ibyo byuka byongereye igihe cy’ibihe by’ibihe byibuze imyaka 100.000. Ubwiyongere bw'inyanja buzakomeza mu binyejana byinshi, bivugwa ko izamuka rya 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft / ° F) nyuma yimyaka 2000.
Ubushyuhe bwa vuba bwateje amoko menshi yo ku isi n’amazi meza poleward no kugera ahirengeye . Urwego rwo hejuru rwo mu kirere CO hamwe nigihe kinini cyo gukura byatumye habaho icyatsi kibisi. Nyamara, ubushyuhe n’amapfa byagabanije umusaruro w’ibidukikije mu turere tumwe na tumwe. Impirimbanyi zizaza zizi ngaruka zinyuranye ntizisobanutse. [167] Imihindagurikire y’ibihe yagize uruhare mu kwagura ahantu humye h’ikirere, nko kwagura ubutayu muri subtropique . Ingano n'umuvuduko w'ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi birahindura impinduka zitunguranye muri urusobe rw'ibinyabuzima bishoboka. [169] Muri rusange, biteganijwe ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere izavamo amoko menshi. [170]
Inyanja yashyushye gahoro gahoro kurusha ubutaka, ariko ibimera ninyamaswa zo mu nyanja bimukiye mu nkingi zikonje vuba kurusha amoko yo ku butaka. Kimwe no ku butaka, ubushyuhe bwo mu nyanja bubaho kenshi bitewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, bikangiza ibinyabuzima byinshi nka korali, kelp, n’inyoni zo mu nyanja . Acide acide yo mu nyanja ituma bigora ibinyabuzima byo mu nyanja nka mussele, barnacle na korali kubyara ibishishwa na skeleti ; nubushyuhe bwahumuye amabuye ya korali . [173] Indabyo mbi ya algal yongerewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere hamwe na eutrophasi igabanya urugero rwa ogisijeni, bigahungabanya imiyoboro y’ibiribwa kandi bigatakaza ubuzima bw’inyanja. Ibinyabuzima byo ku nkombe birahangayitse cyane. Hafi ya kimwe cya kabiri cy’ibishanga ku isi byarazimye kubera imihindagurikire y’ikirere n’izindi ngaruka z’abantu. [175]
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Ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere zigira ingaruka ku bantu ahantu hose ku isi. Ingaruka zirashobora kugaragara ubu kumugabane wose no mukarere kinyanja, hamwe nuburinganire buke, uduce tudateye imbere duhura ningaruka zikomeye. Ubushuhe bukomeje kugira “ingaruka zikomeye, zikwirakwira kandi zidasubirwaho” ku bantu no ku bidukikije. Ingaruka ziratangwa ku buryo butangana, ariko muri rusange ni nyinshi kubantu batishoboye mu bihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere kandi byateye imbere.
OMS yashyize ahagaragara imihindagurikire y’ikirere nk’ikibazo gikomeye ku buzima bw’isi yose mu kinyejana cya 21. Ikirere gikabije kiganisha ku gukomeretsa no gutakaza ubuzima, no kunanirwa kw'ibihingwa ku mirire mibi . Indwara zitandukanye zandura zandura mu buryo bworoshye mu gihe cy'ubushyuhe, nka feri ya dengue na malariya . [188] Abana bato ni bo bibasirwa cyane no kubura ibiryo. Abana ndetse n'abantu bakuru bakunze kwibasirwa n'ubushyuhe bukabije. [189] ry'Umuryango w'Abibumbye ryita ku Buzima (OMS) ryagereranije ko hagati ya 2030 na 2050, imihindagurikire y’ikirere yatera impfu zigera ku 250.000 ku mwaka. Basuzumye impfu ziterwa n'ubushyuhe ku bageze mu zabukuru, kwiyongera kw'impiswi, malariya, dengue, umwuzure wo ku nkombe, n'imirire mibi y'abana. Biteganijwe ko buri mwaka hapfa abantu barenga 500.000 bapfa bakuze bitewe no kugabanuka kw'ibiribwa ndetse n'ubuziranenge. Kugeza 2100, 50% kugeza 75% byabatuye isi barashobora guhura nikirere cyangiza ubuzima bitewe ningaruka ziterwa nubushyuhe bukabije nubushuhe.
Imihindagurikire y’ibihe igira ingaruka ku kwihaza mu biribwa . Byatumye igabanuka ry'umusaruro w'ibigori, ingano, na soya hagati ya 1981 na 2010. Ubushyuhe buzaza bushobora kurushaho kugabanya umusaruro wisi ku bihingwa bikomeye. Umusaruro w’ibihingwa birashoboka ko uzagira ingaruka mbi mubihugu bidafite uburinganire buke, mugihe ingaruka zamajyaruguru zishobora kuba nziza cyangwa mbi. Abantu bagera kuri miliyoni 183 biyongera ku isi, cyane cyane abafite amikoro make, bafite inzara kubera izo ngaruka. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe nayo igira ingaruka ku baturage b’amafi. Kwisi yose, bike bizaboneka kuroba. [197] Uturere dushingiye ku mazi y’ibarafu, uturere tumaze gukama, n’ibirwa bito bifite ibyago byinshi byo guhangayikishwa n’amazi bitewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere.
Ibyangiritse mu bukungu bitewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere birashobora kuba bikomeye kandi hari amahirwe y’ingaruka mbi. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe ishobora kuba imaze kongera ubusumbane mu bukungu ku isi, kandi biteganijwe ko izakomeza. Ingaruka nyinshi ziteganijwe muri Afurika yo munsi y'Ubutayu bwa Sahara, aho abaturage benshi baho batunzwe n'umutungo kamere n'ubuhinzi , na Aziya y'Amajyepfo-Uburasirazuba. Banki y'isi ivuga ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere ishobora gutuma abantu barenga miliyoni 120 mu bukene mu 2030. [203]
Ubusumbane buriho bushingiye ku butunzi n'imibereho myiza bwarushijeho kwiyongera kubera imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Ingorane zikomeye mu kugabanya, guhuza n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, no guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere zihura n’abantu bahejejwe inyuma badafite ubushobozi buke ku mutungo. [28] Abasangwabutaka, batunzwe n'ubutaka bwabo ndetse n'ibidukikije, bazahura n'ingaruka z'imibereho yabo n'imibereho yabo kubera imihindagurikire y'ikirere. [29] Impuguke zatanzwe zanzuye ko uruhare rw’imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu ntambara yitwaje intwaro rwabaye ruto ugereranije n’ibintu nk’ubusumbane mu mibereho n’ubukungu ndetse n’ubushobozi bwa Leta. [207]
Ibirwa biri hasi hamwe n’abaturage bo ku nkombe babangamiwe n’izamuka ry’inyanja, bigatuma imyuzure ikunze kugaragara. Rimwe na rimwe, ubutaka bwatakaye burundu ku nyanja. [208] Ibi bishobora gutera ubwenegihugu kubantu bo mu bihugu birwa, nka Malidiya na Tuvalu . Mu turere tumwe na tumwe, izamuka ry’ubushyuhe n’ubushuhe birashobora kuba bibi cyane ku buryo abantu batabimenyera. [210] Hamwe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ikabije, imishinga yerekana ko hafi kimwe cya gatatu cy’ikiremwamuntu ishobora gutura mu bihe bishyushye cyane kandi bidashobora guturwa, bisa n’ikirere kiriho ubu kiboneka muri Sahara. Izi ngingo zishobora gutwara kwimuka kw ibidukikije, haba mubihugu ndetse no mubihugu. Abantu benshi biteganijwe ko bazimurwa kubera izamuka ry’inyanja, ikirere gikabije n’amakimbirane biturutse ku guhatanira kongera umutungo kamere. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe irashobora kandi kongera intege nke, biganisha ku "baturage bafashwe" badashobora kwimuka kubera kubura amikoro.
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Imihindagurikire y’ibihe irashobora kugabanywa mu kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere no kongera imyanda ikurura imyuka ihumanya ikirere. Kugirango ugabanye ubushyuhe bwisi kugeza munsi ya 1.5 ° C ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ku isi bigomba kuba net-zeru muri 2050, cyangwa muri 2070 hamwe na 2 Intego ya C. Ibi bisaba impinduka zigera kure, zitunganijwe muburyo butigeze bubaho mu mbaraga, ubutaka, imigi, ubwikorezi, inyubako, n'inganda. Gahunda y’umuryango w’abibumbye ishinzwe ibidukikije ivuga ko ibihugu bigomba kwikuba gatatu ibyo byiyemeje mu masezerano y’i Paris mu myaka icumi iri imbere kugira ngo ubushyuhe bw’isi bugere kuri 2 ° C. Urwego runini rwo kugabanya rusabwa kugirango rwuzuze 1.5 ° C intego. Hamwe n'imihigo yatanzwe mu masezerano guhera mu Kwakira 2021, ubushyuhe bw’isi buracyafite amahirwe ya 66% yo kugera kuri 2.7 ° C (intera: 2.2–3.2 ° C) mu mpera z'ikinyejana. Kwisi yose, kugabanya ubushyuhe kuri 2 ° C irashobora kuvamo inyungu zirenze ibiciro.
Nubwo nta nzira imwe yo kugabanya ubushyuhe bwisi kuri 1.5 cyangwa 2 C. Kugabanya umuvuduko w’ibinyabuzima no kongera ubushobozi bwa gahunda ya karubone, impinduka nazo zaba nkenerwa mu buhinzi n’amashyamba, nko gukumira amashyamba no kugarura urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima hakoreshejwe amashyamba .
Ubundi buryo bwo kugabanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere bufite ibyago byinshi. Scenarios igabanya ubushyuhe bwisi kuri 1.5 ° C mubisanzwe umushinga munini wo gukoresha uburyo bwo gukuraho karuboni ya dioxyde mu kinyejana cya 21. Hano hari impungenge, nubwo, gushingira cyane kuri tekinoroji, n'ingaruka ku bidukikije. Imicungire y'izuba (SRM) nayo ninyongera ishoboka yo kugabanya cyane imyuka ihumanya ikirere. Ariko, SRM yazamura ibibazo bikomeye byimyitwarire namategeko, kandi ingaruka ntizisobanutse neza.
Ingufu zisubirwamo ni urufunguzo rwo kugabanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Ibicanwa biva mu kirere byagize 80% by'ingufu z'isi muri 2018. Umugabane wasigaye wagabanijwe hagati y’ingufu za kirimbuzi n’ibishobora kongerwa (harimo amashanyarazi, bioenergy, umuyaga n’izuba n’ingufu za geothermal ). Urwo ruvange ruteganijwe guhinduka cyane mumyaka 30 iri imbere. Imirasire y'izuba hamwe n'umuyaga wo ku nkombe ubu biri muburyo buhendutse bwo kongerera ingufu amashanyarazi mashya ahantu henshi. Ibishobora kuvugururwa byagaragazaga 75% by'amashanyarazi mashya yose yashyizwe muri 2019, hafi izuba n'umuyaga. Ubundi buryo bwingufu zisukuye, nka kirimbuzi n’amashanyarazi, kuri ubu bifite uruhare runini mu gutanga ingufu. Ariko, iteganyagihe ryiterambere ryabo risa nkaho rigereranijwe.
Kugera kuri 2050 kutabogama kwa karubone, ingufu zishobora kuba uburyo bwambere bwo kubyara amashanyarazi, bikazamuka kugera kuri 85% cyangwa birenga muri 2050 mubihe bimwe. Ishoramari mu makara ryavaho kandi ikoreshwa ry’amakara hafi ya 2050.
Amashanyarazi aturuka ku masoko ashobora kuvugururwa nayo agomba kuba isoko nyamukuru yo gushyushya no gutwara. Ubwikorezi burashobora kuva mumodoka ya moteri yaka imbere no kugana ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi, inzira nyabagendwa, hamwe nubwikorezi bukora (gusiganwa ku magare no kugenda). [30] Kubyohereza no kuguruka, lisansi nkeya yagabanya ibyuka bihumanya. [31] Ubushyuhe bushobora kurushaho kuba decarbonone hamwe nikoranabuhanga nka pompe yubushyuhe .
Hariho inzitizi zo gukomeza kwiyongera byihuse byingufu zisukuye, harimo nibishobora kuvugururwa. Ku muyaga n'izuba, hari ibidukikije n'imikoreshereze y'ubutaka ku mishinga mishya. Umuyaga nizuba nabyo bitanga ingufu mugihe kimwe nigihe gihindagurika . Ubusanzwe, ingomero za hydro zifite ibigega hamwe ninganda zisanzwe zikoreshwa mugihe umusaruro uhindagurika ari muke. Kujya imbere, ububiko bwa batiri burashobora kwagurwa, ingufu zikenewe hamwe nibitangwa birashobora guhuzwa, kandi kohereza intera ndende birashobora guhinduka neza kubishobora kuvugururwa. Bioenergy ntabwo iba idafite karubone kandi ishobora kugira ingaruka mbi kubiribwa. Ubwiyongere bw'ingufu za kirimbuzi bugarukwaho n'impaka zishingiye ku myanda ya kirimbuzi, ikwirakwizwa ry'intwaro za kirimbuzi, n'impanuka . [32] Iterambere ry’amashanyarazi rigarukira ku kuba ahantu heza hateguwe, kandi imishinga mishya ikaba ihanganye n’ibibazo by’imibereho n’ibidukikije. [33]
Ingufu nke za karubone zitezimbere ubuzima bwabantu mukugabanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Ifite kandi inyungu mu gihe cya vuba cyo kugabanya impfu ziterwa n’ikirere, zagereranyaga miliyoni 7 buri mwaka mu 2016. Kuzuza intego zamasezerano ya Paris agabanya ubushyuhe kuri 2 Ubwiyongere bwa C bushobora gukiza abagera kuri miliyoni muri ubwo buzima mu mwaka wa 2050, mu gihe ubushyuhe bw’isi bugera kuri 1.5 ° C irashobora kuzigama miriyoni kandi icyarimwe ikongerera umutekano ingufu no kugabanya ubukene. Kuzamura ikirere kandi bifite inyungu zubukungu zishobora kuba nini kuruta ibiciro bya mituweli.
Kugabanya ingufu zikenewe ni ikindi kintu gikomeye cyo kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Niba ingufu nke zikenewe, haribindi byoroshye guhinduka byiterambere ryingufu. Bituma kandi byoroha gucunga amashanyarazi, kandi bikagabanya iterambere ryibikorwa remezo byibanda cyane. Kwiyongera kwinshi mu ishoramari ry’ingufu bizasabwa kugera ku ntego z’ikirere, ugereranije n’urwego rw’ishoramari mu mbaraga zishobora kubaho. Impinduka nyinshi za COVID-19 zijyanye no gukoresha ingufu, ishoramari rikoresha ingufu, ninkunga byatumye iteganyagihe ryiyi myaka icumi rigoye kandi ridashidikanywaho.
Ingamba zo kugabanya ingufu zikenerwa ziratandukanye. Mu bwikorezi, abagenzi n’imizigo barashobora guhinduka muburyo bwiza bwo gukora ingendo, nka bisi na gari ya moshi, cyangwa gukoresha ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi. Ingamba zinganda zo kugabanya ingufu zikenewe zirimo kunoza sisitemu yo gushyushya na moteri, gukora ibicuruzwa bitita cyane ku mbaraga, no kongera ubuzima bwibicuruzwa. Mu rwego rwubwubatsi hibandwa ku gishushanyo mbonera cy’inyubako nshya, n’urwego rwo hejuru rw’ingufu zikoreshwa muri retrofiting. Gukoresha tekinoroji nka pompe yubushyuhe birashobora kandi kongera ingufu zubaka.
Ubuhinzi n’amashyamba bihura n’ingorabahizi eshatu zo kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere, birinda ko amashyamba ahinduka mu butaka bw’ubuhinzi, ndetse no kwiyongera kw’ibiribwa ku isi. Ibikorwa byinshi bishobora kugabanya ubuhinzi n’amashyamba ashingiye ku mashyamba bibiri bya gatatu kuva ku rwego rwa 2010. Muri byo harimo kugabanya ubwiyongere bukenewe ku biribwa n’ibindi bicuruzwa by’ubuhinzi, kongera umusaruro w’ubutaka, kurinda no kugarura amashyamba, no kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere biva mu buhinzi.
Kuruhande rwibisabwa, igice cyingenzi cyo kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ni uguhindura abantu ibiryo bikomoka ku bimera . Kurandura umusaruro w’amatungo y’inyama n’amata byakuraho hafi 3/4 by’ibyuka bihumanya biva mu buhinzi n’ikoreshwa ry’ubutaka. Amatungo kandi afite 37% yubutaka butagira urubura kwisi kandi akoresha ibiryo biva kuri 12% yubutaka bukoreshwa mubihingwa, gutwara amashyamba no kwangirika kwubutaka.
Umusaruro w'ibyuma na sima ushinzwe hafi 13% byangiza imyanda ya CO . Muri izo nganda, ibikoresho byibanda cyane kuri karubone nka kokiya na lime bigira uruhare runini mu musaruro, ku buryo kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere CO bisaba ubushakashatsi mu bundi buryo bwa shimi. [34]
Imyuka ya karubone isanzwe irashobora kongererwa imbaraga kugirango ikurikirane cyane CO irenze urwego rusanzwe rusanzwe. Gutema amashyamba no gutera ibiti ku butaka butari amashyamba biri mu buhanga bukuze bukurikirana, nubwo bwa nyuma butera impungenge ibiribwa. Abahinzi barashobora guteza imbere ikwirakwizwa rya karubone mu butaka binyuze mu bikorwa nko gukoresha ibihingwa bitwikiriye imbeho, kugabanya ubukana n’inshuro yo guhinga, no gukoresha ifumbire n’ifumbire nkivugurura ubutaka. Kugarura / kwidagadura ibishanga byo ku nkombe n’ibyatsi byo mu nyanja byongera gufata karubone mu bintu kama ( karubone yubururu ). Iyo karubone ifashwe mubutaka no mubintu kama nkibiti, harikibazo cyuko karubone yongeye kurekurwa mukirere nyuma binyuze mumihindagurikire yimikoreshereze yubutaka, umuriro, cyangwa izindi mpinduka mubidukikije.
Iyo ingufu zitanga ingufu cyangwa CO - inganda zikomeye zikomeje gutanga imyanda CO , gaze irashobora gufatwa ikabikwa aho kurekurwa mukirere. Nubwo ikoreshwa ryayo rigarukira mubipimo kandi bihenze, gufata no kubika karubone (CCS) birashobora kugira uruhare runini mukugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere cya CO mu kinyejana rwagati. [270] Ubu buhanga, bufatanije na bioenergy ( BECCS ) bushobora kuvamo imyuka mibi: CO ikurwa mu kirere. Kugeza ubu ntiharamenyekana neza niba tekinike yo gukuramo karubone izashobora kugira uruhare runini mu kugabanya ubushyuhe kuri 1.5 ° C. Ibyemezo bya politiki bishingiye ku gukuraho karuboni ya dioxyde byongera ibyago byo gushyuha kwisi kuzamuka kurenza intego mpuzamahanga.
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Kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere ni "inzira yo guhindura imihindagurikire y'ikirere cyangwa iteganijwe mu kirere n'ingaruka zayo". [35] : 5 Hatabayeho kugabanuka kworoheje, kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere ntibishobora gukumira ingaruka z’ingaruka zikomeye, zikwirakwira kandi zidasubirwaho. [274] Imihindagurikire y’ikirere ikabije isaba guhuza n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, bishobora kuba bihenze cyane. [275] Ubushobozi nubushobozi abantu bashobora kumenyera bikwirakwizwa mu turere dutandukanye ndetse n’abaturage, kandi ibihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere muri rusange bifite bike. Imyaka 20 yambere yikinyejana cya 21 hagaragaye kwiyongera mubushobozi bwo kurwanya imihindagurikire y’imihindagurikire y’ibihugu byinshi bikennye kandi biciriritse hamwe n’iterambere ry’isuku n’amashanyarazi, ariko iterambere riratinda. Ibihugu byinshi byashyize mu bikorwa politiki yo kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere. Ariko, hariho itandukaniro rinini hagati yimari ikenewe kandi iboneka. [277]
Kumenyera kuzamuka kwinyanja bigizwe no kwirinda ahantu hashobora kwibasirwa n’akaga, kwiga kubana n’umwuzure wiyongereye no kurindwa. Niba ibyo binaniwe, umwiherero ucungwa urashobora gukenerwa. Hano hari inzitizi zubukungu mugukemura ingaruka zubushyuhe. Kwirinda akazi gakomeye cyangwa kugira ubukonje ntibishoboka kuri bose. [279] Mu buhinzi, uburyo bwo kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere burimo guhinduranya indyo irambye, gutandukana, kurwanya isuri no kunoza imiterere y’imiterere hagamijwe kwihanganira imihindagurikire y’ikirere. [280] Ubwishingizi butanga kugabana ibyago, ariko akenshi biragoye kubona kubantu binjiza amafaranga make. [36] Uburezi, abimukira hamwe na sisitemu yo kuburira hakiri kare birashobora kugabanya ingaruka z’ikirere. [282] Gutera mangrove cyangwa gutera inkunga ibindi bimera byo ku nkombe birashobora guhagarika umuyaga. [37] [38]
Urusobe rw'ibinyabuzima ruhuza n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, inzira ishobora gushyigikirwa n'abantu. Mugukomeza guhuza urusobe rwibinyabuzima, amoko arashobora kwimuka mubihe byiza byikirere. Ubwoko burashobora kandi kwerekanwa mubice bifite ikirere cyiza . Kurinda no gusana ahantu nyaburanga nigice cya kamere bifasha kubaka imbaraga, byorohereza urusobe rwibinyabuzima guhinduka. Byinshi mubikorwa biteza imbere imihindagurikire y’ibinyabuzima, bifasha kandi abantu kumenyera binyuze mu kurwanya ibidukikije . Kurugero, kugarura gahunda yumuriro karemano bituma umuriro wibiza udashoboka, kandi bikagabanya guhura kwabantu. Guha inzuzi umwanya munini bituma habaho kubika amazi muri sisitemu karemano, kugabanya ibyago byumwuzure. Amashyamba yagaruwe akora nk'icyuzi cya karubone, ariko gutera ibiti mu turere tudakwiye birashobora kongera ingaruka z’ikirere.
Hariho imikoranire hamwe nubucuruzi hagati yo kurwanya no kugabanya ibicuruzwa. Kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere akenshi bitanga inyungu z'igihe gito, mu gihe kugabanuka bifite inyungu z'igihe kirekire. [39] Kongera imikoreshereze yumuyaga bituma abantu barushaho guhangana nubushyuhe, ariko byongera ingufu zikenewe. Iterambere ryimijyi irashobora gutuma imyuka igabanuka mu bwikorezi no kubaka. Muri icyo gihe, irashobora kongera ingaruka zo mu birwa byo mu mujyi, biganisha ku bushyuhe bwo hejuru no kwiyongera. Kongera umusaruro w'ibiribwa bifite inyungu nini haba mu kurwanya no kugabanya.
Ibihugu byibasirwa cyane n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ubusanzwe byashinzwe uruhare ruto rw’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Ibi bitera kwibaza kubyerekeye ubutabera nubutabera. Imihindagurikire y’ibihe ifitanye isano n’iterambere rirambye. Kugabanya ubushyuhe bw’isi byoroha kugera ku ntego z’iterambere rirambye, nko kurandura ubukene no kugabanya ubusumbane. Ihuriro ryemewe mu ntego zirambye z’iterambere 13 ari "gufata ingamba zihutirwa zo kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere n'ingaruka zayo". Intego ku biribwa, amazi meza no kurengera ibidukikije bifite aho bihurira no guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. [291]
Geopolitike y’imihindagurikire y’ikirere iragoye. Byakunze gushyirwaho nkikibazo cyo gutwara abantu ku buntu, aho ibihugu byose byungukira mu kugabanya ibicuruzwa byakozwe n’ibindi bihugu, ariko ibihugu bitandukanye byatakaza kuva mu bukungu buke bwa karubone ubwabyo. Uku gushiraho kwamaganwe. Kurugero, inyungu zamakara ziva mubuzima rusange nibidukikije byaho birenze ibiciro hafi yakarere kose. Byongeye kandi, abatumiza mu mahanga ibicuruzwa biva mu kirere batsindira mu bukungu kuva mu guhindura ingufu zisukuye, bigatuma abatumiza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga bahura n’umutungo wangiritse : ibicanwa bidashobora kugurisha.
Politiki, amabwiriza, n'amategeko menshi birakoreshwa mukugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Kugeza muri 2019, ibiciro bya karubone bikubiyemo hafi 20% byuka bihumanya ikirere ku isi. Carbone irashobora kugurwa imisoro ya karubone hamwe na sisitemu yubucuruzi bwangiza . Inkunga ya peteroli y’ibinyabuzima ku isi yageze kuri miliyari 319 z'amadolari muri 2017, na tiriyari 5.2 z'amadolari igihe ibiciro nko guhumanya ikirere biguzwe. Kurangiza ibyo birashobora gutuma igabanuka rya 28% byangiza imyuka y’ikirere no kugabanuka kwa 46% by’impfu z’ikirere. Amafaranga yazigamiwe ku nkunga y’ibinyabuzima ashobora gukoreshwa mu gushyigikira inzibacyuho y’ingufu zisukuye aho. Ubundi buryo butaziguye bwo kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere harimo ibipimo ngenderwaho by’imodoka, ibipimo bya lisansi ishobora kongerwa, n’amabwiriza yangiza ikirere ku nganda zikomeye. Ibihugu byinshi bisaba ibikorwa byingirakamaro kugirango byongere umugabane wibishobora kuvugururwa mumashanyarazi .
Politiki yateguwe binyuze mu butabera bw’ikirere igerageza gukemura ibibazo by’uburenganzira bwa muntu n’ubusumbane mu mibereho. Kurugero, ibihugu bikize bifite uruhare runini rwibyuka bihumanya ikirere byishyura ibihugu bikennye kugirango bihuze. [40] Mugihe ikoreshwa ryibicanwa bigabanuka, imirimo mumirenge iratakara. Kugirango bagere ku nzibacyuho iboneye, aba bantu bakeneye imyitozo kugirango bakore indi mirimo. Imiryango ifite abakozi ba peteroli benshi bakeneye ishoramari ryiyongera.
Ibihugu hafi ya byose ku isi bifite uruhare mu masezerano y’umuryango w’abibumbye y’imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu 1994 (UNFCCC). Intego ya UNFCCC ni ugukumira abantu babangamira gahunda z’ikirere . Nkuko byavuzwe muri iryo koraniro, ibi bisaba ko ingufu za gaze ya parike zihagarara mu kirere ku buryo urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima rushobora guhuza n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, umusaruro w’ibiribwa ntubangamiwe, kandi iterambere ry’ubukungu rishobora gukomeza. UNFCCC ubwayo ntabwo igabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ahubwo itanga urwego rwa protocole ikora. Ibyuka bihumanya ikirere byiyongereye kuva UNFCCC yashyirwaho umukono. Inama zayo ngarukamwaka nicyiciro cyibiganiro byisi.
Amasezerano ya Kyoto yo mu 1997 yongereye UNFCCC kandi akubiyemo amasezerano yiyemeje kubahiriza ibihugu byinshi byateye imbere kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere. Muri iyo mishyikirano, G77 (ihagarariye ibihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere ) yasabye manda isaba ibihugu byateye imbere "gufata iyambere" mu kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere, kubera ko ibihugu byateye imbere byagize uruhare runini mu kwegeranya imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu kirere. Umwuka w’umuturage nawo wari ukiri muto mu bihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere kandi ibihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere byakenera kohereza byinshi kugira ngo bikemure iterambere ryabyo.
Amasezerano ya Copenhagen yo mu 2009 yagaragaye cyane ko atengushye kubera intego zayo nkeya, kandi yangwa n’ibihugu bikennye harimo na G77. Amashyirahamwe yunze ubumwe yari agamije kugabanya ubushyuhe bwisi ku isi munsi ya 2 ° C. Amasezerano yashyizeho intego yo kohereza miliyari 100 z'amadolari ku mwaka mu bihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere mu rwego rwo kugabanya no kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere bitarenze 2020, anasaba ko hashyirwaho ikigega cy’ibidukikije . As of 2020 , ikigega cyananiwe kugera ku ntego cyari giteganijwe, kandi gishobora kugabanuka mu nkunga yacyo. [41]
Muri 2015 ibihugu byose by’umuryango w’abibumbye byaganiriye n’amasezerano y'i Paris, agamije gukomeza ubushyuhe bw’isi munsi ya 2.0 ° C kandi ikubiyemo intego yo gukomeza gushyuha munsi ya 1.5 ° C. [316] Amasezerano yasimbuye Protokole ya Kyoto. Bitandukanye na Kyoto, nta ntego zoguhumanya ikirere zashyizweho mu masezerano y'i Paris. Ahubwo, urutonde rwibikorwa byakozwe bihuza. Ibihugu bigomba guhora byishyiriraho intego zikomeye kandi bigasubiramo intego buri myaka itanu. Amasezerano y'i Paris yasubiyemo ko ibihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere bigomba gushyigikirwa n'amafaranga. As of October 2021 , Ibihugu 194 n’umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi byashyize umukono kuri ayo masezerano naho ibihugu 191 kandi Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi byemeje cyangwa byemera ayo masezerano.
Amasezerano mpuzamahanga ya Montreal yo mu 1987, amasezerano mpuzamahanga yo guhagarika kohereza imyuka yangiza ozone, ashobora kuba yarabaye ingirakamaro mu gukumira ibyuka bihumanya ikirere kuruta amasezerano ya Kyoto yagenewe kubikora. Ivugurura rya Kigali ryo mu mwaka wa 2016 ry’amasezerano ya Montreal rigamije kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere cya hydrofluorocarbone, itsinda ry’imyuka ihumanya ikirere yabaye umusimbura wa gaze ya ozone yabujijwe. Ibi byatumye Protokole ya Montreal amasezerano akomeye yo kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere. [42]
Muri 2019, inteko ishinga amategeko y’Ubwongereza ibaye guverinoma ya mbere y’igihugu yatangaje ko ibihe byihutirwa. Ibindi bihugu nubutabera byakurikiranye. Muri uwo mwaka, Inteko ishinga amategeko y’Uburayi yatangaje "ikirere cyihutirwa n’ibidukikije". Komisiyo y’Uburayi yerekanye amasezerano y’ibihugu by’i Burayi hagamijwe guhindura Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi mu 2050. Ibihugu bikomeye muri Aziya byiyemeje imihigo nk'iyi: Koreya y'Epfo n'Ubuyapani byiyemeje kutagira aho bibogamiye muri 2050, n'Ubushinwa mu 2060. Mu 2021, Komisiyo y’Uburayi yashyize ahagaragara gahunda y’amategeko “ Fit for 55 ”, ikubiyemo amabwiriza agenga inganda z’imodoka ; imodoka zose nshya ku isoko ry’iburayi zigomba kuba imodoka zeru ziva mu 2035. Mu gihe Ubuhinde bufite imbaraga zo kongera ingufu, burateganya kandi kwagura amakara muri iki gihugu. [43]
Kugeza mu 2021, hashingiwe ku makuru aturuka muri gahunda 48 z’ikirere z’igihugu, zihagarariye 40% by’amasezerano y’i Paris, byagereranijwe ko ibyuka bihumanya ikirere bizaba biri munsi ya 0.5% ugereranije n’urwego rwa 2010, munsi y’intego zo kugabanya 45% cyangwa 25% kugeza gabanya ubushyuhe bwisi kuri 1.5 ° C cyangwa 2 ° C.
Impaka rusange zerekeye imihindagurikire y’ikirere zagize ingaruka zikomeye ku guhakana imihindagurikire y’ikirere no gutanga amakuru atari yo, byaturutse muri Amerika kandi kuva ubwo bikwira mu bindi bihugu, cyane cyane Kanada na Ositaraliya. Abagize uruhare mu guhakana imihindagurikire y’ikirere bagize ihuriro ryatewe inkunga kandi ihuriweho n’amasosiyete y’ibikomoka kuri peteroli, amatsinda y’inganda, ibitekerezo by’ibitekerezo byita ku bidukikije, hamwe n’abahanga mu bya siyansi. Kimwe n'inganda z'itabi, ingamba nyamukuru z'aya matsinda kwari ugushidikanya ku makuru ya siyansi n'ibisubizo. Benshi bahakana, bakirukana, cyangwa bashidikanya ku buryo budashidikanywaho ku bwumvikane bwa siyansi ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere bwiswe "abakekeranya n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere", abahanga benshi bavuga ko ari amakosa .
Hariho uburyo butandukanye bwo guhakana ikirere: bamwe bahakana ko ubushyuhe bubaho na gato, bamwe bakemera ubushyuhe ariko bakavuga ko ari ingaruka kamere, ndetse bamwe bagabanya ingaruka mbi z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Gukora ibintu bidashidikanywaho kuri siyanse nyuma byaje kuba impaka zakozwe : bitera kwizera ko hari ugushidikanya gukomeye ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu bumenyi bwa siyansi hagamijwe gutinza impinduka za politiki. Ingamba zo guteza imbere ibyo bitekerezo zirimo kunenga ibigo bya siyansi, no kwibaza impamvu abahanga ku giti cyabo. [44] Urugereko rwerekana imbuga nkoranyambaga n’itangazamakuru byateje ikibazo cyo kutumva neza imihindagurikire y’ikirere.
Imihindagurikire y’ibihe yaje kumenyeshwa n’amahanga mu mpera za 1980. Bitewe n’itangazamakuru mu ntangiriro ya za 90, abantu bakunze kwitiranya imihindagurikire y’ikirere n’ibindi bibazo by’ibidukikije nko kubura ozone. Mu muco uzwi cyane, filime y’impimbano y’ikirere Umunsi ukurikira ejo (2004) hamwe na documentaire ya Al Gore Ukuri kutorohewe (2006) yibanze ku mihindagurikire y’ikirere. [47]
Intara zikomeye z’akarere, uburinganire, imyaka n’itandukaniro rya politiki zirahari haba mu kwita ku baturage no gusobanukirwa n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Abantu benshi bize cyane, ndetse no mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe, abagore n’urubyiruko, wasangaga babona ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere ari ikibazo gikomeye. Ikinyuranyo cy’amashyaka kibaho no mu bihugu byinshi, kandi ibihugu bifite imyuka ihumanya ikirere ya CO usanga bititaweho cyane. Ibitekerezo ku mpamvu z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere biratandukanye cyane hagati y’ibihugu. Impungenge ziyongereye igihe, [48] kugeza aho mu 2021 abaturage benshi mu bihugu byinshi bagaragaza impungenge nyinshi z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, cyangwa bakabona ko ari ibintu byihutirwa ku isi. Inzego zo hejuru zo guhangayikishwa no gushyigikira abaturage muri politiki zita ku mihindagurikire y’ikirere.
Imyigaragambyo y’ibihe isaba abayobozi ba politiki gufata ingamba zo gukumira imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Bashobora gufata uburyo bwo kwerekana imyigaragambyo rusange, kugabanya ibicanwa bya fosile, kuburana nibindi bikorwa. Imyiyerekano ikomeye irimo imyigaragambyo yishuri ryikirere . Muri iki gikorwa, urubyiruko rwo ku isi rwigaragambyaga kuva mu 2018 rusiba ishuri ku wa gatanu, ruyobowe n’umwangavu wo muri Suwede Greta Thunberg . Ibikorwa rusange byo kutumvira kwabaturage byakozwe nitsinda nka Extinction Rebellion bigaragambije bahagarika imihanda no gutwara abantu. Imanza zikoreshwa cyane nk'igikoresho cyo gushimangira ibikorwa by'ikirere bituruka mu bigo bya Leta n'ibigo. Abaharanira inyungu kandi batangiza imanza zireba guverinoma kandi bagasaba ko bafata ingamba zikomeye cyangwa kubahiriza amategeko ariho yerekeye imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Imanza ziregwamo amasosiyete y’ibikomoka kuri peteroli muri rusange arasaba indishyi z’igihombo n’ibyangiritse
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