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2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee

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2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee

Main article: 2018 United States Senate elections
Not to be confused with 2018 Tennessee Senate election.

The 2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican senator Bob Corker opted to retire instead of running for a third term. Republican U.S. representative Marsha Blackburn won the open seat, defeating former Democratic governor Phil Bredesen.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout54.46% [1] 7.4 pp
 
Nominee Marsha Blackburn Phil Bredesen
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,227,483 985,450
Percentage 54.71% 43.92%
Blackburn:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bredesen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Bob Corker
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Marsha Blackburn
Republican

Close

The primaries took place on August 2, 2018, with Blackburn and Bredesen winning their respective party nominations.

Early in the campaign, Bob Corker said that Blackburn's opponent, Democrat Phil Bredesen, was "a very good mayor, a very good governor, a very good businessperson", that he had "real appeal" and "crossover appeal", and that the two of them had cooperated well over the years. However, Corker said he would vote for Blackburn and donate to her campaign, and questioned whether Bredesen would be able to win a Senate seat in a red state like Tennessee.[2][3] After Corker's praise for Bredesen, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell warned Corker that such comments could cost the Republican Party its Senate majority.[3] Shortly after Corker's comments, Trump tweeted an endorsement of Blackburn.[3]

In October 2018, Tennessean singer-songwriter Taylor Swift endorsed Bredesen. The endorsement was notable given that Swift had previously been publicly apolitical, but spoke out because Blackburn's voting record in Congress "appalled" and "terrified" her. Swift shared a link to the nonpartisan voter registration website Vote.org, which saw a significant spike in page views and new registrations. Donald Trump criticized Swift's endorsement.[4][5][6]

This election was expected to be among the most competitive Senate races in 2018, with CNN calling it the single most important Senate race in the country. Polls showed the race as close until the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh started, which many Tennesseans believed the Democratic Party handled poorly. This is believed to have mobilized Republican voters and cost Bredesen any chance of winning.[7] Bredesen also announced his support for Kavanaugh, which some believe cost him supporters.[8]

This was Tennessee's closest Senate race since 2006, with Blackburn winning by a 10.8% margin.

Republican primary

Summarize
Perspective

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver[10]

Withdrawn

Declined

Speculation surrounding Senator Corker

On September 26, 2017, Republican senator Bob Corker announced that he would not seek another term in 2018.[28] Many called on Corker to reverse his decision to retire.[who?] Former U.S. representative Fincher dropped out of the race, calling on Corker to jump back in and challenge U.S. representative Blackburn for the GOP nomination. Fincher said in a statement that the GOP should unite "behind a candidate who can win" the general election. Blackburn said she would remain in the race even if Corker reversed his decision. Amid the speculation about Corker's decision, many of Tennessee's Republican politicians, including many in the Tennessee General Assembly, reiterated their support for Blackburn.[29] Corker's chief of staff announced on February 27, 2018, that Corker would stick with his plan to retire.[30]

Endorsements

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Marsha
Blackburn		 Stephen
Fincher		 Rolando
Toyos		 Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)[31] January 14–15, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 66% 13% – 21%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[32] December 12–18, 2017 1,028 ± 3.1% 58% 11% 4% 27%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Marsha
Blackburn		 Bob
Corker		 Stephen
Fincher		 Undecided
Ragnar Research Partners (R-AFFPA)[33] February 14–19, 2018 926 ± 3.0% 48% 29% – 23%
WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)[34] February 13–15, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 55% 26% – 19%
Victory Phones (R-SCF)[35] February 12–13, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 26% 9% 16%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)[31] January 14–15, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 63% 25% – 12%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bob
Corker		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
Triton/Tennessee Star[36] May 31 - June 5, 2018 1,007 ± 3.1% 41.6% 41.6% 17.3%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Results

Results by county:
Blackburn
  •   Blackburn—70–80%
  •   Blackburn—80–90%
  •   Blackburn—90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[37]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marsha Blackburn 613,513 84.48%
Republican Aaron Pettigrew 112,705 15.52%
Write-in 13 <0.01%
Total votes 726,231 100.00%
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Bill Bailey, teaching assistant and retired UPS trailer mechanic[39]
  • James Mackler, attorney and veteran[40]

Declined

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
Bredesen
  •   Bredesen—80–90%
  •   Bredesen—>90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[51]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Phil Bredesen 349,718 91.51%
Democratic Gary Davis 20,170 5.28%
Democratic John Wolfe Jr. 12,269 3.21%
Total votes 382,157 100.00%
Close

Independents

General election

Summarize
Perspective

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[53] Lean R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Lean R November 5, 2018
NYT[55] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[56] Lean R November 5, 2018
CNN[57] Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[58] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[59] Lean R November 5, 2018
Politico[60] Lean R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[61] Likely R November 5, 2018
Close

Debates

Endorsements

Marsha Blackburn (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Organizations

Newspapers

Phil Bredesen (D)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of Sep 30, 2018, Candidate (party) ...
Campaign finance reports as of Sep 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R) $11,568,094 $9,062,332 $2,505,762
Phil Bredesen (D) $14,868,198 $11,693,910 $3,174,289
Source: Federal Election Commission[141]
Close

Polling

Thumb

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Marsha
Blackburn (R)		 Phil
Bredesen (D)		 Other Undecided
Targoz Market Research[142] October 28–31, 2018 480 – 49% 49% – 2%
Emerson College[143] October 28–30, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 52% 44% 2% 3%
FOX News[144] October 27–30, 2018 718 LV ± 3.5% 50% 41% 3% 5%
850 RV ± 3.0% 48% 40% 3% 8%
Vox Populi Polling[145] October 27–29, 2018 780 ± 3.5% 53% 47% – –
CNN/SSRS[146] October 24–29, 2018 764 LV ± 4.3% 49% 45% 0% 3%
871 RV ± 4.0% 47% 46% 0% 4%
East Tennessee State University[147] October 22–29, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 44% 44% – –
Cygnal (R)[148] October 26–27, 2018 497 ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% 4%
NBC News/Marist[149] October 23–27, 2018 471 LV ± 5.7% 51% 46% 1% 3%
764 RV ± 4.4% 49% 46% 1% 3%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS[150] October 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.9% 43% 44% 1% 8%
Targoz Market Research[151] October 9–12, 2018 558 LV – 52% 48% – –
801 RV – 44% 45% – 11%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[152] October 8–11, 2018 593 ± 4.2% 54% 40% – 6%
Ipsos[153] October 4–11, 2018 1,108 ± 3.4% 47% 44% 3% 6%
YouGov[154] October 2–5, 2018 871 ± 3.6% 50% 42% 2% 6%
FOX News[155] September 29 – October 2, 2018 666 LV ± 3.5% 48% 43% 3% 7%
806 RV ± 3.5% 47% 41% 3% 8%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen)[156] September 23–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – –
SurveyMonkey[157] September 9–24, 2018 1,609 ± 3.3% 42% 42% – 15%
Vox Populi Polling[158] September 16–18, 2018 567 ± 4.1% 49% 51% – –
CNN/SSRS[159] September 11–15, 2018 723 LV ± 4.3% 45% 50% 0% 3%
852 RV ± 3.9% 42% 50% 0% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[160] September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 48% 45% – 7%
FOX News[161] September 8–11, 2018 686 LV ± 3.5% 47% 44% 1% 8%
809 RV ± 3.5% 45% 43% 2% 9%
NBC News/Marist[162] August 25–28, 2018 538 LV ± 5.1% 46% 48% <1% 5%
730 RV ± 4.5% 44% 48% <1% 7%
Gravis Marketing[163] August 9–11, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 48% 44% – 8%
Emerson College[164] July 11–14, 2018 657 ± 4.1% 37% 43% 5% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Duty and Country Pac)[165] July 10–11, 2018 583 ± 4.1% 41% 44% – 15%
WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)[166] July 9–11, 2018 551 ± 4.2% 38% 35% – 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[167] June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,010 ± 4.5% 55% 41% – 4%
Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter)[168] April 30 – May 1, 2018 609 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[169] April 2–23, 2018 1,638 ± 4.0% 47% 48% – 5%
Mason-Dixon[170] April 17–19, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen)[171] April 9–11, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8%
Middle Tennessee State University[172] March 22–29, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 35% 45% – 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[173] March 15–16, 2018 1,014 ± 3.1% 41% 46% – 13%
WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)[174] February 13–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 44% 39% – 17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[175] January 26–29, 2018 – – 45% 47% – 8%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[176] January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 51% 40% – 10%
WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)[177] December 13–14 & 17, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 43% 34% – 23%
Gravis Marketing[178] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 40% 42% – 18%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)[179] October 20–22, 2017 601 ± 4.1% 41% 46% – 13%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)[160] September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 52% 41% – 7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[173] March 15–16, 2018 1,014 ± 3.1% 51% 41% – 8%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bob
Corker (R)		 Phil
Bredesen (D)		 Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)[34] February 13–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 35% 44% 21%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Stephen
Fincher (R)		 Phil
Bredesen (D)		 Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)[176] January 21–24, 2018 1,004 ± 3.1% 38% 42% 20%
WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)[177] December 13–14 and 17, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 30% 42% 28%
Gravis Marketing[178] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 38% 42% 20%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Marsha
Blackburn (R)		 Phil
Bredesen (D)		 Clay
Travis (I)		 Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)[176] January 21–24, 2018 1,004 ± 3.1% 48% 37% 6% 10%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Stephen
Fincher (R)		 Phil
Bredesen (D)		 Clay
Travis (I)		 Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)[176] January 21–24, 2018 1,004 ± 3.1% 35% 39% 10% 16%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bob
Corker (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)[180] August 11–13, 2017 663 ± 3.6% 47% 37% 16%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Peyton
Manning (R)		 Phil
Bredesen (D)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing[178] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 44% 39% 17%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

with Bob Corker

with Stephen Fincher

with Clay Travis

with Bob Corker and generic Democrat

with Peyton Manning

Results

On November 6, 2018, Blackburn defeated Bredesen in the general election, carrying all but three counties, the largest number of counties ever won in an open senate election in Tennessee.[181] Although polls began to show the race in Blackburn's favor following the Kavanaugh hearings, Blackburn won by a larger margin than all but one poll showed.

More information Party, Candidate ...
2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee[182]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Marsha Blackburn 1,227,483 54.71% −10.18%
Democratic Phil Bredesen 985,450 43.92% +13.51%
Independent Trudy Austin 9,455 0.42% N/A
Independent Dean Hill 8,717 0.39% N/A
Independent Kris L. Todd 5,084 0.23% N/A
Independent John Carico 3,398 0.15% N/A
Independent Breton Phillips 2,226 0.10% N/A
Independent Kevin Lee McCants 1,927 0.09% N/A
Total votes 2,243,740 100.00% N/A
Republican hold
Close

By county

More information County, Marsha Blackburn Republican ...
County[183]Marsha Blackburn
Republican		Phil Bredesen
Democratic		Other votesTotal
votes
 % #  % #  % #
Anderson56.60%14,72041.59%10,8181.81%47026,008
Bedford68.61%8,94230.15%3,9291.24%16213,033
Benton65.86%3,48932.50%1,7221.64%875,298
Bledsoe71.34%2,90826.89%1,0961.77%724,076
Blount63.97%29,92834.29%16,0401.74%81446,782
Bradley71.96%24,43326.59%9,0301.45%49133,954
Campbell71.04%7,20826.73%2,7122.24%22710,147
Cannon68.83%3,19829.72%1,3811.44%674,646
Carroll68.85%6,04429.68%2,6061.47%1298,779
Carter74.61%13,94624.32%4,5471.07%20018,693
Cheatham63.21%9,13535.64%5,1501.15%16714,452
Chester72.33%3,90224.91%1,3442.76%1495,395
Claiborne71.60%6,08326.42%2,2451.98%1688,496
Clay64.20%1,64334.04%8711.76%452,559
Cocke72.51%7,52825.25%2,6212.24%23310,382
Coffee65.28%11,11532.73%5,5721.99%33917,026
Crockett66.44%2,98431.57%1,4181.99%894,491
Cumberland71.26%16,96626.55%6,3212.19%52123,808
Davidson28.46%69,33870.65%172,1370.89%2,164243,639
Decatur70.09%2,71827.85%1,0802.06%803,878
DeKalb65.60%3,90633.32%1,9841.08%645,954
Dickson62.66%10,46535.88%5,9921.46%24316,700
Dyer72.10%8,01326.08%2,8981.83%20311,114
Fayette66.02%11,37132.74%5,6391.24%21417,224
Fentress74.88%4,74522.72%1,4402.40%1526,337
Franklin64.49%8,98134.29%4,7761.22%17013,927
Gibson64.34%10,40733.10%5,3532.56%41416,174
Giles66.63%6,40332.07%3,0821.30%1259,610
Grainger73.99%5,03924.35%1,6581.66%1136,810
Greene72.45%14,84426.34%5,3981.21%24820,490
Grundy68.84%2,58729.30%1,1011.86%703,758
Hamblen69.71%12,13428.56%4,9721.73%30117,407
Hamilton50.22%67,15248.70%65,1191.08%1,437133,708
Hancock74.55%1,32723.71%4221.74%311,780
Hardeman51.35%3,86947.25%3,5601.40%1067,535
Hardin74.96%6,18123.25%1,9711.79%1488,300
Hawkins74.74%13,05824.17%4,2221.09%19117,471
Haywood40.16%2,36458.60%3,4491.24%735,886
Henderson75.30%6,51423.40%2,0241.30%1138,651
Henry66.28%7,19032.24%3,4971.48%16110,848
Hickman65.35%4,56332.74%2,2861.91%1336,982
Houston58.85%1,61339.40%1,0781.65%452,736
Humphreys60.23%3,54938.42%2,2641.35%795,892
Jackson64.08%2,51434.69%1,3611.23%483,923
Jefferson70.96%11,43526.98%4,3472.06%33216,114
Johnson76.64%4,52022.06%1,3011.30%775,898
Knox50.80%84,40747.71%79,2831.49%2,472166,162
Lake64.09%93033.77%4902.14%311,451
Lauderdale56.14%3,74542.12%2,8101.74%1166,671
Lawrence72.22%9,36526.523,4391.26%16412,968
Lewis69.96%2,83629.03%1,1771.01%414,054
Lincoln75.40%7,94923.12%2,4371.48%15610,542
Loudon68.66%14,83429.49%6,3711.85%40021,605
Macon75.11%4,76823.36%1,4831.53%976,348
Madison52.05%17,12746.54%15,3161.41%46432,907
Marion63.65%5,83934.51%3,1661.84%1689,173
Marshall65.16%6,54333.66%3,3801.18%11810,041
Maury60.10%19,56938.58%12,5601.32%43032,559
McMinn72.28%11,43426.06%4,1221.66%26315,819
McNairy73.36%6,00724.87%2,0361.77%1458,188
Meigs70.99%2,69427.40%1,0401.61%613,795
Monroe71.05%10,27426.54%3,8382.41%34814,460
Montgomery49.98%25,93247.81%24,8072.21%1,14851,887
Moore74.12%1,85624.40%6111.48%372,504
Morgan72.39%4,08325.46%1,4362.15%1215,640
Obion74.46%7,11824.33%2,3261.20%1159,559
Overton64.49%4,64034.08%2,4521.43%1037,195
Perry67.60%1,64429.77%7242.63%642,432
Pickett70.44%1,59928.46%6461.10%252,270
Polk70.92%4,12727.24%1,5851.84%1075,819
Putnam62.59%15,23035.96%8,7501.45%35324,333
Rhea72.95%6,86625.19%2,3711.86%1759,412
Roane65.81%12,72732.28%6,2421.91%37119,340
Robertson64.30%15,50134.47%8,3111.23%29724,109
Rutherford52.72%52,25446.10%45,6921.18%1,17999,125
Scott76.93%4,23221.38%1,1761.69%935,501
Sequatchie71.04%3,56427.25%1,3671.71%865,017
Sevier71.60%21,54125.82%7,7692.58%77430,084
Shelby33.14%96,49365.56%190,8851.30%3,767291,145
Smith66.25%4,31732.40%2,1111.35%886,516
Stewart65.36%2,93833.19%1,4921.45%654,495
Sullivan71.12%38,75327.86%15,1831.02%55754,493
Sumner62.68%41,09936.24%23,7621.08%70465,565
Tipton69.05%13,39029.01%5,6251.94%37819,393
Trousdale60.35%1,58638.13%1,0021.52%402,628
Unicoi74.19%4,65924.75%1,5541.06%676,280
Union71.52%3,73926.43%1,3822.05%1075,228
Van Buren65.75%1,45132.22%7112.03%452,207
Warren61.46%7,01836.78%4,2001.76%20111,419
Washington63.08%28,51435.94%16,2460.98%44145,201
Wayne79.96%3,78719.13%9060.91%434,736
Weakley67.71%6,70430.77%3,0471.52%1509,901
White70.98%5,97927.22%2,2931.80%1518,423
Williamson58.88%62,03940.44%42,6110.68%719105,369
Wilson61.84%32,81036.66%19,4471.50%79753,054
Close

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Blackburn won seven of nine congressional districts.[184]

More information District, Blackburn ...
District Blackburn Bredesen Representative
1st 70.6% 28.1% Phil Roe
2nd 56.9% 41.5% Jimmy Duncan (115th Congress)
Tim Burchett (116th Congress)
3rd 58.5% 40.1% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 61.3% 37.4% Scott DesJarlais
5th 31.9% 67.2% Jim Cooper
6th 64.9% 33.6% Diane Black (115th Congress)
John Rose (116th Congress)
7th 60.9% 37.8% Marsha Blackburn (115th Congress)
Mark Green (116th Congress)
8th 61.7% 36.9% David Kustoff
9th 18.8% 79.8% Steve Cohen
Close

By Grand Division

Thumb
Results by Grand Division
Blackburn:      50–60%      60–70%
Bredesen:      50–60%

Blackburn won Middle and East Tennessee while Bredesen won West Tennessee, which Bob Corker carried last time.[185]

More information Grand Division, Blackburn ...
Grand Division Blackburn Bredesen
West 45.98% 52.57%
Middle 52.52% 46.27%
East 62.43% 36.05%
Close

See also

Notes

  1. [n 1]
    Swift's October endorsement is reported to have helped increase the youth demographic's early voting in Tennessee by 664%[132]

References

External links

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