2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

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2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Bill Haslam was term-limited, and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidate Bill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean in a landslide. Despite Lee’s win, this was the closest win for a Republican since 1994.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 
Turnout54.46% [1] 20.49 pp
 
Nominee Bill Lee Karl Dean
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,336,106 864,863
Percentage 59.56% 38.55%

Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Dean:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data

Governor before election

Bill Haslam
Republican

Elected Governor

Bill Lee
Republican

Close

The primary elections took place on August 2, 2018, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.[2]

During the general election, Dean flipped back reliably Democratic Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby Counties, which voted for Republican governor Bill Haslam in 2014.

The results of the election marked the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.

As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Beth Harwell
Individuals
  • Harry Brooks, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Education Administration and Planning Committee chair
  • Dale Carr,[32] Tennessee House of Representatives, House Local Government Subcommittee chair
  • Mike Carter, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Civil Justice Subcommittee chair
  • Jim Coley, Tennessee House of Representatives
  • Jeremy Faison, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Government Operations Committee chair
  • Andrew Farmer, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Civil Justice Committee chair
  • John Forgety, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Education Instruction and Programs Committee chair
  • Patsy Hazlewood,[33] Tennessee House of Representatives
  • Gary Hicks,[34] Tennessee House of Representatives
  • John Holsclaw Jr., Tennessee House of Representatives, House Business and Utilities Subcommittee chair
  • Dan Howell, Tennessee House of Representatives, Joint Judiciary and Government Committee chair, House Local Government Committee vice chair
  • Curtis Johnson, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Speaker Pro Tempore
  • Pat Marsh, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Business and Utilities Committee chair
  • Steve McDaniel, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Rules Committee chair, House Ethics Committee chair, House Finance, Ways, and Means Study Subcommittee chair
  • Frank Niceley, Tennessee State Senate, Senate Energy, Agriculture, and Natural Resources 1st vice chair, Senate Transportation and Safety Committee 2nd vice chair
  • Tim Rudd,[35] Tennessee House of Representatives
  • Charles Sargent, Tennessee House of Representatives, Finance, Ways, and Means Committee chair
  • Mike Sparks, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Calendar and Rules Committee vice chair
  • Rick Tillis,[36] Tennessee House of Representatives
  • Tim Wirgau, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Local Government Committee chair
Organizations
  • Tennessee Education Association[37]
  • Tennessee Professional Fire Fighters Association[38]
  • Tennessee State Employees Association[37]
Diane Black
Individuals
Organizations
Randy Boyd
Individuals
Bill Lee
U.S. representatives
State-level officials
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black
Randy
Boyd
Beth
Harwell
Bill
Lee
Other Undecided
JMC Analytics[69] July 18–21, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 19% 20% 16% 26% 1%[70] 17%
Emerson College[71] July 11–14, 2018 266 ± 6.4% 27% 22% 14% 19% 3% 14%
Data Orbital[72] June 27–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 24% 23% 10% 19% 24%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[73] June 25–28, 2018 1,040 ± 3.1% 27% 33% 7% 20% 13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)[74] May 14–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 28% 8% 9% 15%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Black)[75] May 4–6, 2018 800 41% 26% 6% 11% 15%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)[74] April 2018 33% 30% 5% 13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)[74] March 2018 31% 31% 10% 10%
TargetPoint/GQR[76] March 7–14, 2018 390 ± 5.0% 25% 20% 6% 7% 2%[77] 37%
North Star Onion Research (R-Lee)[78] February 5–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 22% 25% 4% 18% 30%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[79] December 12–18, 2017 1,028 ± 3.1% 22% 12% 6% 4% 4%[80] 53%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Lee
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Boyd
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Black
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[81]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Lee 291,414 36.75
Republican Randy Boyd 193,054 24.35
Republican Diane Black 182,457 23.01
Republican Beth Harwell 121,484 15.32
Republican Kay White 3,215 0.41
Republican Basil Marceaux 1,264 0.16
Total votes 792,888 100.0
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Karl Dean
Federal officials
Labor unions
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Karl
Dean
Craig
Fitzhugh
Other Undecided
Emerson College[71] July 11–14, 2018 206 ± 7.3% 44% 14% 9% 33%
TargetPoint/GQR[76] March 7–14, 2018 288 ± 5.8% 41% 11% 44%
Close

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
  Dean
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90-100%
  Fitzhugh
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90-100%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[89]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Karl Dean 280,553 75.14
Democratic Craig Fitzhugh 72,553 23.42
Democratic Mezianne Vale Payne 20,284 5.44
Total votes 373,390 100.0
Close

Independents

Candidates

Notes

  1. Libertarian Party and Green Party do not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent."[91]

General election

Summarize
Perspective

Debates

Endorsements

Bill Lee (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Karl Dean (D)
U.S. representatives
State officials
Local officials
Labor unions
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[108] Likely R October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[109] Likely R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[110] Safe R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[111] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[112] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[113] Likely R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[114] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[115][a] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[116] Likely R November 5, 2018
Governing[117] Likely R November 5, 2018
Close
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Lee (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Other Undecided
Targoz Market Research[118] October 28–31, 2018 480 53% 44% 2%
Emerson College[119] October 28–30, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 54% 41% 2% 3%
Fox News[120] October 27–30, 2018 718 LV ± 3.5% 54% 37% 2% 7%
850 RV ± 3.0% 52% 36% 2% 9%
Vox Populi Polling[121] October 27–29, 2018 780 ± 3.5% 56% 44%
CNN/SSRS[122] October 24–29, 2018 764 LV ± 4.3% 52% 42% 0% 4%
871 RV ± 4.0% 52% 41% 0% 5%
East Tennessee State University[123] October 22–29, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 48% 36% 5% 9%
Cygnal (R)[124] October 26–27, 2018 497 ± 4.4% 59% 36% 3% 2%
Marist College[125] October 23–27, 2018 471 LV ± 5.7% 57% 40% 1% 3%
764 RV ± 4.4% 56% 39% 1% 4%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS[126] October 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.9% 48% 37% 0% 12%
Targoz Market Research[127] October 9–12, 2018 558 LV 56% 44%
801 RV 49% 39% 12%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[128] October 8–11, 2018 593 ± 4.2% 59% 33% 8%
Fox News[129] September 29 – October 2, 2018 666 LV ± 3.5% 53% 36% 1% 10%
806 RV ± 3.5% 52% 35% 1% 10%
SurveyMonkey[130] September 9–24, 2018 1,609 ± 3.3% 46% 35% 19%
Vox Populi Polling[131] September 16–18, 2018 567 ± 4.1% 55% 45%
CNN/SSRS[132] September 11–15, 2018 723 LV ± 4.3% 52% 43% 0% 3%
852 RV ± 3.9% 49% 43% 0% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[133] September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 54% 37% 9%
Fox News[134] September 8–11, 2018 686 LV ± 3.5% 55% 35% 1% 10%
809 RV ± 3.5% 52% 34% 2% 12%
Marist College[135] August 25–28, 2018 538 LV ± 5.1% 53% 40% 1% 7%
730 RV ± 4.5% 51% 39% 1% 9%
Gravis Marketing[136] August 9–11, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 51% 40% 9%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 38% 34% 28%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Emerson College[71] July 11–14, 2018 657 ± 4.1% 35% 39% 27%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 46% 35% 19%
Gravis Marketing[138] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 40% 31% 28%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Randy
Boyd (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Emerson College[71] July 11–14, 2018 657 ± 4.1% 34% 36% 30%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 43% 34% 23%
Gravis Marketing[138] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 38% 35% 28%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Beth
Harwell (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 43% 33% 25%
Gravis Marketing[138] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 38% 33% 29%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing[138] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 42% 27% 31%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Randy
Boyd (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing[138] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 39% 30% 31%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Beth
Harwell (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing[138] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 44% 24% 32%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mae
Beavers (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 36% 36% 28%
Gravis Marketing[138] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 32% 37% 32%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mae
Beavers (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing[138] December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 36% 29% 34%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Karl Dean

with Craig Fitzhugh

Results

Thumb
More information Party, Candidate ...
2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election[139]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bill Lee 1,336,106 59.56% −10.75%
Democratic Karl Dean 864,863 38.55% +15.71%
Other Other candidates 42,314 1.89% N/A
Write-in 11 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 2,243,294 100.00% N/A
Republican hold
Close
More information Party, Candidate ...
Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Lee 1,336,106 59.6
Democratic Karl Dean 864,863 38.6
Independent Sherry L. Clark 5,198 0.2
Independent Mark Wright 4,687 0.2
Independent Patrick Whitlock 3,631 0.2
Independent Yvonne Neubert 3,070 0.1
Independent Heather Scott 2,969 0.1
Independent Mark CoonRippy Brown 2,841 0.1
Independent Joe B. Wilmoth 2,444 0.1
Independent George Blackwell Smith IV 1,550 0.1
Independent Cory King 1,502 0.1
Independent Tracy C. Yaste Tisdale 1,396 0.1
Independent Justin Cornett 1,217 0.1
Independent Chad Riden 1,096 0.0
Independent Robert Sawyers Sr. 1,059 0.0
Independent Vinnie Vineyard 1,012 0.0
Independent Rick Tyler 981 0.0
Independent Gabriel Fancher 869 0.0
Independent Sean Bruce Fleming 814 0.0
Independent Alfred Shawn Rapoza 800 0.0
Independent Jessie D. McDonald 755 0.0
Independent Toney Randall Mitchell 739 0.0
Independent Mike Toews 726 0.0
Independent Matthew Koch 652 0.0
Independent Jeremy Allen Stephenson 613 0.0
Independent Tommy Ray McAnally 609 0.0
Independent Jaron D. Weidner 588 0.0
Independent William Andrew Helmstetter 496 0.0
Independent Eddie Murphy (write-in) 11 0.0
Total votes 2,243,294 100.0
Republican hold
Close
Full results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Lee won seven of nine congressional districts.[140]

More information District, Lee ...
District Lee Dean Representative
1st 76.2% 22.7% Phil Roe
2nd 63.5% 35.4% Jimmy Duncan (115th Congress)
Tim Burchett (116th Congress)
3rd 64.0% 35.0% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 66.0% 33.0% Scott DesJarlais
5th 35.6% 59.3% Jim Cooper
6th 69.7% 29.3% Diane Black (115th Congress)
John Rose (116th Congress)
7th 65.4% 32.6% Marsha Blackburn (115th Congress)
Mark Green (116th Congress)
8th 66.5% 32.2% David Kustoff
9th 21.5% 74.9% Steve Cohen
Close

See also

References

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