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The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on May 15.[1] Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term.[2] Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta,[3] Green Party nominee Neal Gale,[4] and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns.[5] Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.
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| Turnout | 58.18% | ||||||||||||||||
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  Casey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Barletta: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | Unopposed | |||
| Total votes | 752,008 | 100.00% | |||
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lou Barletta |
Jim Christiana |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana)[31] | April 2018 | >400 | – | 32% | 11% | – | 58% |
| Bellwether Research (R-Addis)[32] | September 20–24, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 22% | – | <10% | 60% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Lou Barletta | 433,312 | 63.03% | |
| Republican | Jim Christiana | 254,118 | 36.97% | |
| Total votes | 687,430 | 100.00% | ||
Dale Kerns ran unopposed for the Libertarian nomination and received the official nomination from the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party at the state convention on March 6, 2018.[34]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[37] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[38] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[40] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[41][a] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[42] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[43] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
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 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
Lou Barletta (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[88] | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,833 | – | 51% | 44% | 3%[89] | – |
| Research Co.[90] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | 1% | 4% |
| Muhlenberg College[91] | October 28 – November 1, 2018 | 421 | ± 5.5% | 54% | 40% | – | – |
| Franklin & Marshall College[92] | October 22–28, 2018 | 214 LV | ± 9.5% | 50% | 35% | – | 14% |
| 537 RV | ± 6.0% | 50% | 31% | 4%[93] | 14% | ||
| Morning Consult[94] | October 1–2, 2018 | 1,188 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 32% | – | 21% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[95] | September 17–23, 2018 | 204 LV | – | 50% | 33% | – | 15% |
| 545 RV | ± 6.1% | 48% | 30% | 4%[96] | 20% | ||
| Ipsos[97] | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,080 | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 3% | 7% |
| Muhlenberg College[98] | September 13–19, 2018 | 404 | ± 5.5% | 53% | 35% | 7%[99] | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[100] | September 12–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 38% | 2% | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[101] | August 20–26, 2018 | 222 LV | – | 47% | 34% | 1% | 19% |
| 511 RV | ± 6.1% | 48% | 29% | 3%[102] | 20% | ||
| NBC News/Marist[103] | August 12–16, 2018 | 713 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 38% | 1% | 8% |
| Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)[104] | August 13–15, 2018 | 2,012 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 2% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[105] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 990 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Suffolk University[106] | June 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 32% | 1% | 21% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[107] | June 4–10, 2018 | 472 | ± 6.5% | 44% | 27% | 1% | 28% |
| Muhlenberg College[108] | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 48% | 32% | 8% | 18% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[109] | March 19–26, 2018 | 423 | ± 6.8% | 43% | 25% | 2% | 30% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[110] | March 15–16, 2018 | 1,056 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 36% | – | 10% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[111] | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 2,165 | ± 3.8% | 52% | 43% | – | 5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
Jim Christiana (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College[108] | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 48% | 29% | 3% | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[110] | March 15–16, 2018 | 1,056 | ± 3.0% | 53% | 41% | 7% |
with Jim Christiana
with generic Democrat and Republican
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | 2,792,437 | 55.74% | +2.05% | |
| Republican | Lou Barletta | 2,134,848 | 42.62% | −1.97% | |
| Libertarian | Dale Kerns | 50,907 | 1.02% | −0.70% | |
| Green | Neal Gale | 31,208 | 0.62% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 5,009,400 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Casey won 11 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st and 10th districts, which elected Republicans to the House.[113]
| District | Barletta | Casey Jr. | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 41.65% | 56.72% | Brian Fitzpatrick |
| 2nd | 20.33% | 78.53% | |
| Brendan Boyle | |||
| 3rd | 5.76% | 93.06% | Dwight Evans |
| 4th | 34.11% | 64.36% | Madeleine Dean |
| 5th | 30.84% | 67.88% | Mary Gay Scanlon |
| 6th | 39.17% | 59.05% | Chrissy Houlahan |
| 7th | 42.21% | 56.07% | Susan Wild |
| 8th | 47.02% | 51.84% | |
| Matt Cartwright | |||
| 9th | 58.77% | 39.57% | Dan Meuser |
| 10th | 48.19% | 49.78% | Scott Perry |
| 11th | 55.77% | 42.04% | Lloyd Smucker |
| 12th | 60.26% | 37.80% | Tom Marino |
| 13th | 64.15% | 34.20% | John Joyce |
| 14th | 52.34% | 46.04% | Guy Reschenthaler |
| 15th | 60.19% | 38.04% | Glenn Thompson |
| 16th | 50.21% | 48.11% | Mike Kelly |
| 17th | 40.66% | 57.55% | Conor Lamb |
| 18th | 27.41% | 70.86% | Mike Doyle |
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