2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
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The 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election to select the candidates who appeared on the general election ballot took place on September 13, 2016.[1]
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Hassan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Ayotte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 50–60% No votes: | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte ran for re-election to a second term in office and won the primary by a wide margin.[2] Governor Maggie Hassan chose not to seek reelection to a third term as governor and instead sought the nomination of the Democratic Party for the Senate. Hassan was unopposed in the Democratic primary and won the general election by 1,017 votes, representing a winning margin of approximately 0.14%.[3] This made the election the closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, and also the closest race in a New Hampshire Senate election since the disputed 1974–75 election. Hassan became the first Democratic senator elected in this seat since the latter election and only the second since 1932.
The Democratic Party also flipped New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in the concurrent House election, thus marking the first time since 1854 that New Hampshire had an entirely Democratic congressional delegation. To date, this remains the last time that a Democratic candidate for Senate in New Hampshire has failed to win a majority of the vote or lost any county other than Belknap and Coös. This was the first time since 1932 that a Democrat won a full term to this Senate seat.
This is the last time a Senator from New Hampshire lost re-election. To date, this is Ayotte's only general election loss of her political career. Following her defeat, Ayotte would later be elected Governor of New Hampshire in 2024.
Republican primary
Summarize
Perspective
Ayotte was predicted to face opposition in the primary from a Tea Party candidate. In October 2013, former New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairman Jack Kimball said: "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger".[4] Ultimately, she faced only token opposition.
Candidates
Nominee
- Kelly Ayotte, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Tom Alciere
- Gerald Beloin, perennial candidate
- Stanley Emanuel
- Jim Rubens, former state senator, candidate for governor in 1998 and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[5]
Declined
- Andrew Hemingway, businessman and candidate for governor in 2014[6]
- Ovide Lamontagne, attorney, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for governor in 1996 and 2012[7][6][8]
- Bill O'Brien, state representative and former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives[6][9][10]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte |
Ovide Lamontagne |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | April 9–13, 2015 | 358 | ± ? | 57% | 32% | — | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) | 86,676 | 78.56% | |
| Republican | Jim Rubens | 19,156 | 17.36% | |
| Republican | Tom Alciere | 1,586 | 1.44% | |
| Republican | Gerald Beloin | 1,255 | 1.14% | |
| Republican | Stanley Emanuel | 1,187 | 1.08% | |
| Democratic | Maggie Hassan (write-in) | 301 | 0.27% | |
| Write-in | 167 | 0.15% | ||
| Total votes | 110,328 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Declined
- Mark Connolly, former deputy secretary of state and director of securities regulation (running for governor)[14]
- Paul Hodes, former U.S. Representative and 2010 nominee[4][15]
- Ann McLane Kuster, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[16]
- John Lynch, former governor of New Hampshire[17]
- Shawn O'Connor, businessman (running for NH-01)[18][19]
- Carol Shea-Porter, former U.S. Representative (running for NH-01)[4][20][21]
- Colin Van Ostern, Executive Councilor (running for governor)[22]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maggie Hassan | 70,374 | 98.16% | |
| Republican | Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) (write-in) | 775 | 1.08% | |
| Write-in | 547 | 0.76% | ||
| Total votes | 71,696 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian convention
On Saturday, January 16, 2016, the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire selected Brian Chabot to be their nominee for the U.S. Senate.[24][25]
General election
Summarize
Perspective
Candidates
- Kelly Ayotte (R), incumbent senator
- Brian Chabot (L)
- Aaron Day (I), former chairman of the Free State Project and conservative activist[26]
- Maggie Hassan (D), Governor of New Hampshire
Debates
| Dates | Location | Ayotte | Hassan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2016 | North Conway, New Hampshire | Participant | Participant | [27] |
| October 14, 2016 | Manchester, New Hampshire | Participant | Participant | [28] |
| October 27, 2016 | Concord, New Hampshire | Participant | Participant | [29] |
| November 2, 2016 | Manchester, New Hampshire | Participant | Participant | [30] |
Endorsements
Kelly Ayotte
Presidents
Governors (current and former)
- Mike Pence, Indiana and 2016 vice presidential nominee[32]
- Mitt Romney, Massachusetts (former), 2008 presidential candidate and 2012 presidential nominee[33]
U.S. Senators
- Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia[34][35]
- John Cornyn, Texas and Senate Majority Whip[36]
- Ted Cruz, Texas and 2016 presidential candidate[36]
- Joni Ernst, Iowa[37][34]
- Deb Fischer, Nebraska[38]
- Lindsey Graham, South Carolina and 2016 presidential candidate[39]
State legislators
- Shawn Jasper, Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives[40]
- Chuck Morse, President of the New Hampshire Senate[40]
- Stephen Stepanek, state representative[41]
- Bill Zeliff, former state representative[40]
Individuals
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[42]
- Andrew Hemingway, businessman, Tea Party activist and candidate for Chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee in 2013[43]
- Ovide Lamontagne, attorney, nominee for Governor in 1996 and 2012 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[44]
- Donald Trump, Chairman and CEO of The Trump Organization and 2016 presidential nominee[45]
Organizations
- Manchester Police Patrolman's Association[46]
- National Federation of Independent Business[47]
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[48]
- New England Narcotics Enforcement Officers Association[46]
- New Hampshire Troopers Association[46]
- Republican Party of New Hampshire[49]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[50]
Newspapers
Maggie Hassan
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State, 2008 presidential candidate and 2016 presidential nominee[59]
Governors
- John Lynch, New Hampshire (former)[60]
U.S. Senators
- Barbara Boxer, California[61]
- Dick Durbin, Illinois[62]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, New York[63]
- Martin Heinrich, New Mexico[64]
- Mazie Hirono, Hawaii[65]
- Jeff Merkley, Oregon[66]
- Chris Murphy, Connecticut[67]
- Gary Peters, Michigan[68]
- Bernie Sanders, Vermont and 2016 presidential candidate[69]
- Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire[70]
- Jon Tester, Montana[71]
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts[72]
U.S. Representatives
- Gabby Giffords, Arizona (former)[73]
Individuals
- Michael Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York and CEO of Bloomberg L.P.[74]
- Debra Messing, actress[75]
- Michelle Obama, 44th First Lady of the United States[76]
- Jodi Picoult, novelist[77]
Labor Unions
- AFSCME[78]
- American Federation of Government Employees[79]
- American Federation of Teachers - New Hampshire[80]
Organizations
- Alliance for Retired Americans[81]
- American Nurses Association[82]
- Americans for Responsible Solutions[83]
- Daily Kos[84]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[71]
- EMILY's List[85]
- Friends of the Earth Action[86]
- Human Rights Campaign[87]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[88]
- National Organization for Women[89]
- Planned Parenthood[90]
- Portsmouth Naval Shipyard[91]
- Professional Firefighters of New Hampshire[92]
- Sierra Club[93]
Newspapers
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[97] | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
| Inside Elections[98] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[100] | Lean D (flip) | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[101] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[102] | November 1–7, 2016 | 696 | ± 4.6% | 42% | 51% | 6% | 1% |
| WMUR/UNH[103] | November 3–6, 2016 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[104] | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 672 | ± 4.6% | 41% | 50% | 7% | 2% |
| Emerson College[105] | November 4–5, 2016 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% | 1% |
| WMUR/UNH[106] | November 2–5, 2016 | 645 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 47% | 2% | 6% |
| WMUR/UNH[106] | November 1–4, 2016 | 588 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | 2% | 6% |
| WMUR/UNH[106] | October 31 – November 3, 2016 | 515 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 48% | 3% | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey[107] | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 672 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 50% | 9% | 3% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[108] | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,001 | ± 2.0% | 46% | 44% | — | 10% |
| Suffolk University[109] | October 31 – November 2, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 42% | 5% | 8% |
| American Research Group[110] | October 31 – November 2, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | 2% | 3% |
| WMUR/UNH[106] | October 30 – November 2, 2016 | 466 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 48% | 3% | 8% |
| UMass Lowell/7News[111] | October 28 – November 2, 2016 | 695 LV | ± 4.3% | 46% | 47% | 5% | 3% |
| 901 RV | ± 3.8% | 43% | 46% | 5% | 6% | ||
| SurveyMonkey[112] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 658 | ± 4.6% | 37% | 50% | 10% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling[113] | October 31 – November 1, 2016 | 781 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 48% | — | 7% |
| WMUR/UNH[106] | October 29 – November 1, 2016 | 468 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 47% | 2% | 8% |
| WBUR/MassINC[114] | October 29 – November 1, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 1% | 3% |
| 48% | 43% | — | 6% | ||||
| SurveyMonkey[115] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 635 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 50% | 9% | 3% |
| WMUR/UNH[106] | October 28–31, 2016 | 513 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 46% | 2% | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey[116] | October 25–31, 2016 | 659 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 50% | 8% | 4% |
| WMUR/UNH[106] | October 27–30, 2016 | 463 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 45% | 2% | 8% |
| WMUR/UNH[117] | October 26–30, 2016 | 641 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 46% | 3% | 8% |
| WMUR/UNH[106] | October 26–29, 2016 | 516 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 45% | 3% | 8% |
| InsideSources/NH Journal[118] | October 26–28, 2016 | 408 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 47% | — | 4% |
| Emerson College[119] | October 23–25, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 44% | 6% | 1% |
| Monmouth University[120] | October 22–25, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 46% | 6% | 2% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[121] | October 20–24, 2016 | 768 LV | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 2% |
| 1,020 RV | ± 3.1% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% | ||
| UMass Amherst/WBZ[122] | October 17–21, 2016 | 772 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 44% | 4% | 4% |
| 46% | 43% | 4% | 8% | ||||
| Emerson College[123] | October 17–19, 2016 | 900 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 45% | 10% | 1% |
| WMUR/UNH[124] | October 11–17, 2016 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 39% | 48% | 4% | 9% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[125] | October 8–16, 2016 | 569 | ± 0.5% | 42% | 47% | 10% | 1% |
| WBUR/MassINC[126] | October 10–12, 2016 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 2% | 5% |
| 46% | 45% | 2% | 6% | ||||
| 7News/UMass Lowell[127] | October 7–11, 2016 | 517 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 44% | 4% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[128] | October 7–9, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 44% | — | 13% |
| Suffolk University[129] | October 3–5, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 41% | 4% | 6% |
| WBUR/MassINC[130] | September 27–29, 2016 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 48% | 3% | 4% |
| 46% | 48% | 3% | 3% | ||||
| GBA Strategies[131] | September 25–27, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 7% | 2% |
| 47% | 49% | — | 4% | ||||
| American Research Group[132] | September 20–25, 2016 | 522 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 47% | — | 6% |
| Monmouth University[133] | September 17–20, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 45% | 2% | 5% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[134] | September 6–8, 2016 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 52% | 44% | — | 4% |
| Emerson College[135] | September 3–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[136] | August 30–31, 2016 | 585 | ± 4.1% | 44% | 47% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[137] | August 26–28, 2016 | 977 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | — | 8% |
| WMUR/UNH[138] | August 20–28, 2016 | 433 | ± 4.7% | 42% | 44% | 3% | 12% |
| CBS News/YouGov[139] | August 10–12, 2016 | 990 | ± 4.3% | 41% | 42% | — | 17% |
| Vox Populi Polling (R)[140] | August 7–8, 2016 | 820 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 46% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[141] | August 5–7, 2016 | 802 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 47% | — | 11% |
| WBUR/MassINC[142] | July 29 – August 1, 2016 | 609 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 50% | 2% | 7% |
| 37% | 48% | 2% | 11% | ||||
| GBA Strategies[131] | July 25–27, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | 2% | 4% |
| InsideSources/NH Journal[143] | July 19–21, 2016 | 1,166 | ± 5.1% | 49% | 41% | — | 10% |
| WMUR/UNH[144] | July 9–18, 2016 | 469 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 45% | 3% | 11% |
| American Research Group[145] | June 24–28, 2016 | 533 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 42% | — | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[146] | June 22–23, 2016 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 44% | — | 15% |
| Global Strategy Group[147] | June 15–16, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 49% | — | 6% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[148] | June 11–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 46% | 47% | — | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[149] | June 8–9, 2016 | 649 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 47% | — | 8% |
| Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University[150] | May 25–28, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | — | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group[151] | May 25–26, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 43% | 45% | — | 12% |
| WBUR/MassINC[152] | May 12–15, 2016 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 2% | 4% |
| Dartmouth College[153] | April 11–16, 2016 | 362 | ± 5.2% | 37% | 35% | — | 28% |
| WMUR/UNH[154] | April 7–17, 2016 | 553 | ± 4.2% | 43% | 42% | — | 15% |
| WMUR/UNH[155] | February 20–28, 2016 | 628 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 41% | 4% | 10% |
| Marist Poll[156] | January 28, 2016 | 2,258 | ± 2.1% | 45% | 40% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[157] | January 4–6, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 42% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[158] | November 30 – December 2, 2015 | 990 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[159] | October 16–18, 2015 | 880 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 44% | — | 13% |
| Gravis Marketing[160] | October 5–6, 2015 | 1,035 | ± 3.1% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| WMUR/UNH[161] | September 21 – October 2, 2015 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 45% | 43% | 1% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[162] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 43% | — | 13% |
| NBC News/Marist Poll[163] | July, 2015 | 910 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 42% | — | 8% |
| WMUR/UNH[164] | July 7–20, 2015 | 472 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 41% | 1% | 12% |
| The Tarrance Group[165] | July 5–6, 2015 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | — | 5% |
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates[166] | June 25–28, 2015 | 500 | ± 3.0% | 52% | 41% | — | 7% |
| WMUR/UNH[167] | May 6–22, 2015 | 524 | ± 4.3% | 45% | 43% | 2% | 9% |
| Gravis Marketing[168] | April 21–22, 2015 | 1,117 | ± 3.0% | 51% | 43% | — | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[11] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 45% | 46% | — | 9% |
| Gravis Marketing[169] | March 18–19, 2015 | 1,110 | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | — | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[170] | February 17–18, 2015 | 424 | ± 4.7% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| NBC News/Marist[171] | February 3–10, 2015 | 887 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 48% | — | 7% |
| New England College[172] | December 1, 2014 | 541 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 43% | 4% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[173] | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,354 | ± 2.7% | 46% | 40% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[174] | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,038 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 44% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[175] | April 19–21, 2013 | 933 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 46% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Ann McLane Kuster (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Chris Pappas (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[162] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 45% | 31% | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 35% | 54% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Ann McLane Kuster (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 39% | 43% | 18% |
Hypothetical polling
with Kelly Ayotte
with Jim Rubens
with Ovide Lamontagne
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Hassan (D) | $18,698,223.00 | $18,564,772.00 | $133,450.00 | $0 |
| Kelly Ayotte (R) | $16,409,753.89 | $16,197,583.64 | $134,182.99 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[176] | ||||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maggie Hassan | 354,649 | 47.98% | +11.13% | |
| Republican | Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) | 353,632 | 47.84% | −12.25% | |
| Independent | Aaron Day | 17,742 | 2.40% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Brian Chabot | 12,597 | 1.70% | +0.66% | |
| Write-in | 520 | 0.07% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 739,140 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Hassan won 1 of the 2 congressional districts, and Ayotte won the other that also elected a Democrat.
| District | Ayotte | Hassan | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49% | 47% | Carol Shea-Porter |
| 2nd | 47% | 49% | Annie Kuster |
Allegations of voting irregularities
Summarize
Perspective
In February 2017, President Donald Trump (who had endorsed Ayotte) told a gathering of senators at the White House that fraudulent out-of-state voting had cost him and Ayotte the election in New Hampshire.[177] On September 7, state House speaker Shawn Jasper (who also had endorsed Ayotte) alleged that voter fraud swung the election. He made the allegations based on a report by the New Hampshire House of Representatives saying that of the 6,540 voters who had registered to vote on election day, only 1,014 of those voters had obtained a New Hampshire driver's license by August 30 of the following year. The Washington Post was able to quickly contact three such voters who said that they were college students and kept the driver's license from their home state.[178]
Several investigations by New Hampshire's Ballot Law Commission found no evidence of widespread fraud, and only four instances of fraud total in the state for the 2016 elections.[179] Specifically addressing the claim of people being bussed in from out of state to vote, Associate Attorney General Anne Edwards noted that they found no evidence for such claims. When they investigated these claims, they found that the buses were chartered out of state, but the voters on the buses lived in New Hampshire and could legally vote there.[179]
See also
References
External links
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