2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

The 2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other midterm elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as to the United States House of Representatives. This was one of the five Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Barack Obama won in the 2008 presidential election.

2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

← 2004 November 2, 2010 2016 →

Nominee Kelly Ayotte Paul Hodes Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 273,218 167,545 Percentage 60.09% 36.85%

County results Municipality results Congressional district results Ayotte:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Hodes:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90% Tie:      40–50%

U.S. senator before election Judd Gregg Republican Elected U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte Republican

Primaries were held on September 14. Incumbent Senator Judd Gregg (R) retired instead of seeking a fourth term, and was succeeded by Kelly Ayotte, who won the open seat by over 23 points. This is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire. This was also the first open seat election in the state since 1992. With Democrat Jeanne Shaheen serving in the state's other Senate seat, New Hampshire became the first state in the union to be represented in the Senate simultaneously by two women of opposite parties.

Background

Gregg was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004, and indicated that he would seek a fourth term in 2010.^[1] New Hampshire trended Democratic in the 2006 and 2008 elections, with Republican incumbents losing both of the state's House seats and its other Senate seat to Democrats, but polling conducted in late December 2008 showed Gregg defeating both of the state's U.S. Representatives in a hypothetical match-up.

In February 2009, President Barack Obama offered, and Gregg accepted, nomination to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce.^[2] New Hampshire's Democratic Governor John Lynch announced he would appoint Bonnie Newman, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for economic development in the Reagan administration, to serve as Senator for New Hampshire until the election in 2010.^[2] Newman announced that she would not run for election in 2010, nor would she endorse any candidate in the race.^[3]

On February 12, 2009, however, Gregg withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary. He cited "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department as the main reasons for his withdrawal, but also indicated support for President Obama.^[4] Gregg continued to serve as a senator from New Hampshire, as he did not resign from the Senate during the nomination process. At the time of the withdrawal, Gregg indicated that he would not run for reelection in 2010. However, at a subsequent press conference, Gregg clarified that he would "probably not" run for reelection, leading to speculation that was not eliminating the possibility completely.^[5][6]

On April 1, 2009, Gregg reaffirmed that he would not run.^[7]

Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes began his Senate campaign. He was the only major announced candidate until Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced her bid for the Republican nomination in early July 2009. On November 9, 2009, Republican Ovide Lamontagne joined the race as well.

Republican primary

Candidates

• Kelly Ayotte, former New Hampshire Attorney General^[8]
• Tom Alciere, state representative
• Gerard Beloin
• Jim Bender, businessman
• Bill Binnie, businessman^[9]
• Dennis Lamare
• Ovide Lamontagne, 1992 congressional candidate and 1996 gubernatorial nominee; chairman of 2004 platform committee^[10]

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte

• U.S. Senator Judd Gregg^[11]
• Former Governor of Alaska and 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin^[12][13]
• U.S. Senator and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky^[14]
• U.S. Senator and 2008 Republican nominee for President John McCain of Arizona^[15]
• Former U.S. Congressman Bill Zeliff of New Hampshire^[16]
• Former U.S. Senator Warren Rudman^[17]
• Former U.S. Marshal for New Hampshire Steve Monier^[18]
• State Senator John Barnes, Jr.
• State Senator Robert Letourneau
• State Senator Sheila Roberge
• State Senator Bob Odell
• State Senator John Gallus
• State Senator Sharon Carson^[19]
• Former Major League Baseball shortstop and third baseman for the Boston Red Sox Rico Petrocelli^[20]

Ovide Lamontagne

• United States Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina^[21]
• New Hampshire Union Leader^[22]
• Former Vice President Dan Quayle^[23]
• Former Republican presidential candidate Steve Forbes^[24]
• Former U.S. Senator Gordon Humphrey^[25]
• Former State Senator and 2008 gubernatorial nominee Joe Kenney^[26]
• Conservative national talk show host Laura Ingraham^[27]

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Kelly Ayotte	Jim Bender	Bill Binnie	Ovide Lamontagne	Undecided/other
Tarrance Group[28]	January 13–14, 2010	43%	3%	5%	11%	37%
Research 2000[29]	February 1–3, 2010	36%	––	4%	27%	33%
Public Policy Polling[30]	April 21, 2010	43%	11%	19%	5%	21%
Magellan Strategies[31]	May 28, 2010	38%	4%	29%	9%	15%
Public Policy Polling[32]	July 23–25, 2010	47%	6%	14%	8%	20%
Magellan Strategies[33]	September 1, 2010	34%	13%	17%	21%	15%
Public Policy Polling[34]	September 11–12, 2010	37%	12%	13%	30%	5%
Magellan Strategies[35]	September 12, 2010	35%	10%	14%	31%	10%

Results

Results by county:

  Ayotte—40–50%

  Ayotte—30–40%

  Lamontagne—30–40%

  Lamontagne—40–50%

Republican primary results^[36]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kelly Ayotte	53,056	38.21%
	Republican	Ovide Lamontagne	51,397	37.01%
	Republican	Bill Binnie	19,508	14.05%
	Republican	Jim Bender	12,611	9.08%
	Republican	Dennis Lamare	1,388	1.00%
	Republican	Tom Alciere	499	0.36%
	Republican	Gerard Beloin	402	0.29%
Total votes			138,861	100.00%

General election

Candidates

• Kelly Ayotte (R), former state Attorney General
• Ken Blevens (L), (campaign site Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine, PVS)
• Chris Booth (I), (campaign site, PVS)
• Paul Hodes (D), U.S. Representative since 2007

Campaign

Hodes called himself a fiscal conservative, which was mocked by Ayotte in a TV ad. Hodes was criticized for supporting President Obama's Economic Recovery package, a carbon energy tax, and Affordable Care Act.^[37][38][39] Hodes criticized Ayotte for numerous controversies. One ad questioned Ayotte's honesty in dealing with the Lakes Region Ponzi scheme which defrauded investors of almost $80 million.^[40]

Ayotte was endorsed by the Concord Monitor and the Nashua Telegraph.^[41]

Debates

• October 11 in Henniker at New England College^[42]
• October 28 in Manchester^[43]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[44]	Lean R	October 26, 2010
Rothenberg[45]	Safe R	October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics[46]	Lean R	October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47]	Likely R	October 21, 2010
CQ Politics[48]	Lean R	October 26, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kelly Ayotte (R)	Paul Hodes (D)	Other	Undecided
Granite State Poll[49]	June 24 – July 1, 2009	558	± 4.1%	39%	35%	2%	24%
Research 2000[50]	July 13 – 15, 2009	600	± 4.0%	39%	38%	2%	21%
Rasmussen Reports[51]	September 14, 2009	500	± 4.5%	46%	38%	5%	12%
American Research Group[52]	September 30, 2009	566	± 4.1%	41%	34%	––	25%
Granite State Poll[53]	October 2, 2009	503	± 4.4%	40%	33%	2%	25%
American Research Group[54]	December 29, 2009	566	± 4.1%	43%	36%	––	21%
Rasmussen Reports[55]	January 12, 2010	500	± 4.5%	49%	40%	3%	8%
Granite State Poll[56]	January 27 – February 3, 2010	500	± 4.4%	41%	33%	1%	25%
Research 2000[29]	February 1–3, 2010	600	± 4.0%	46%	39%	––	11%
Rasmussen Reports[57]	February 10, 2010	500	± 4.5%	46%	39%	3%	13%
Rasmussen Reports[58]	March 8, 2010	500	± 4.5%	47%	37%	4%	12%
Rasmussen Reports[59]	April 7, 2010	500	± 4.5%	50%	35%	4%	11%
Public Policy Polling[60]	April 17–18, 2010	1,474	± 2.6%	47%	40%	––	13%
Granite State Poll[61]	April 12–21, 2010	512	± 4.4%	47%	32%	––	21%
Rasmussen Reports[62]	May 11, 2010	500	± 4.5%	50%	38%	3%	9%
Rasmussen Reports[63]	July 12, 2010	500	± 4.5%	49%	37%	7%	7%
Public Policy Polling[64]	July 23–25, 2010	900	± 3.26%	45%	42%	––	13%
WMUR Granite State Poll[65]	July 19–27, 2010	453	± 4.4%	45%	37%	1%	17%
Rasmussen Reports[66]	August 5, 2010	500	± 4.5%	51%	38%	4%	6%
Public Policy Polling[67]	September 11–12, 2010	1,959	± 2.2%	47%	43%	––	9%
Rasmussen Reports[63]	September 15, 2010	500	± 4.5%	51%	44%	1%	4%
American Research Group[54]	September 22–26, 2010	800	± 3.5%	46%	32%	2%	20%
American Research Group[54]	October 3–5, 2010	600	± 4.0%	47%	42%	4%	7%
Rasmussen Reports[63]	October 10, 2010	750	± 4.0%	51%	44%	3%	2%
WMUR/UNH[68]	October 7–12, 2010	709	± 3.7%	50%	35%	1%	12%
Rasmussen Reports[69]	October 27, 2010	750	± 4.0%	56%	41%	2%	1%
Public Policy Polling[70]	October 27–29, 2010	1,308	± 2.7%	56%	41%	––	3%
WMUR/UNH[71]	October 27–30, 2010	885	± 3.3%	54%	36%	2%	8%
WMUR/UNH[71]	October 31, 2010	885	± 3.3%	55%	32%	2%	2%
The Concord[72]	October 31, 2010	885	± 3.3%	56%	32%	2%	4%

Poll Source	Dates Administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Paul Hodes (D)	Jim Bender (R)	Other	Undecided
WMUR Granite State Poll[65]	July 19–27, 2010	453	± 4.4%	39%	36%	--	25%
Public Policy Polling[64]	July 23–25, 2010	900	± 3.26%	43%	42%	--	16%
Rasmussen Reports[63]	July 12, 2010	500	± 4.5%	39%	43%	10%	8%
Rasmussen Reports[62]	May 11, 2010	500	± 4.5%	41%	39%	8%	13%
Granite State Poll[61]	April 12–21, 2010	512	± 4.4%	37%	34%	--	29%
Public Policy Polling[60]	April 17–18, 2010	1474	± 2.6%	43%	39%	--	18%
Granite State Poll[56]	January 27 – February 3, 2010	500	± 4.4%	36%	27%	2%	35%

Poll Source	Dates Administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Paul Hodes (D)	Bill Binnie (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[66]	August 5, 2010	500	± 4.5%	40%	46%	8%	7%
WMUR Granite State Poll[65]	July 19–27, 2010	453	± 4.4%	38%	41%	--	21%
Public Policy Polling[64]	July 23–25, 2010	900	± 3.26%	41%	46%	--	13%
Rasmussen Reports[63]	July 12, 2010	500	± 4.5%	38%	49%	7%	8%
Rasmussen Reports[73]	May 11, 2010	500	± 4.5%	37%	49%	6%	8%
Granite State Poll[61]	April 12–21, 2010	512	± 4.4%	36%	38%	--	26%
Public Policy Polling[60]	April 17–18, 2010	1474	± 2.6%	42%	45%	--	13%
Rasmussen Reports[59]	April 7, 2010	500	± 4.5%	37%	49%	4%	10%
Rasmussen Reports[58]	March 8, 2010	500	± 4.5%	36%	46%	4%	14%
Rasmussen Reports[74]	February 10, 2010	500	± 4.5%	41%	42%	3%	13%
Research 2000[29]	February 1–3, 2010	600	± 4.0%	45%	35%	--	15%
Granite State Poll[56]	January 27 – February 3, 2010	500	± 4.4%	34%	30%	2%	33%
Rasmussen Reports[55]	January 12, 2010	500	± 4.5%	43%	37%	5%	15%

Poll Source	Dates Administered	Sample size	Margin of Error	Paul Hodes (D)	Ovide Lamontagne (R)	Other	Undecided
WMUR Granite State Poll[65]	July 19–27, 2010	453	± 4.4%	42%	36%	1%	21%
Public Policy Polling[64]	July 23–25, 2010	900	± 3.26%	43%	38%	--	18%
Rasmussen Reports[63]	July 12, 2010	500	± 4.5%	40%	43%	9%	9%
Rasmussen Reports[62]	May 11, 2010	500	± 4.5%	43%	38%	8%	11%
Granite State Poll[61]	April 12–21, 2010	512	± 4.4%	36%	37%	--	26%
Public Policy Polling[60]	April 17–18, 2010	1474	± 2.6%	44%	37%	--	19%
Rasmussen Reports[59]	April 7, 2010	500	± 4.5%	39%	44%	7%	11%
Rasmussen Reports[58]	March 8, 2010	500	± 4.5%	42%	38%	5%	15%
Rasmussen Reports[57]	February 10, 2010	500	± 4.5%	44%	38%	4%	13%
Research 2000[29]	February 1–3, 2010	600	± 4.0%	46%	36%	--	13%
Granite State Poll[56]	January 27 – February 3, 2010	500	± 4.4%	38%	29%	2%	30%
Rasmussen Reports[75]	January 12, 2010	500	± 4.5%	45%	38%	6%	11%
American Research Group[54]	December 29, 2009	566	± 4.1%	31%	37%	--	32%

Hypothetical polling

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Kelly Ayotte (R)	$4,403,599	$3,397,934	$1,005,664	$26,944
Paul Hodes (D)	$4,596,642	$4,346,539	$248,003	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[76]

Results

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2010^[77][78]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Kelly Ayotte	273,218	60.09%	−6.15%
	Democratic	Paul Hodes	167,545	36.85%	+3.10%
	Independent	Chris Booth	9,194	2.02%	N/A
	Libertarian	Ken Blevens	4,753	1.04%	+1.04%
Total votes			454,710	100.0%
	Republican hold