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The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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County results Daines: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Curtis: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock.[1]
Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014, due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College.[2] Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16.[3] Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.
Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years.[4] Daines became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1907, as well as the first to ever be popularly elected to the seat.
Elected officials
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Walsh |
Dirk Adams |
John Bohlinger |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 381 | ± 5% | 39% | 3% | 31% | — | 27% |
Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 23% | 2% | 23% | — | 52% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus |
Brian Schweitzer |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[35] | June 16–19, 2011 | 333 | ± 5.4% | 34% | 51% | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling[36] | November 28–30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | 35% | 51% | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling[37] | April 26–29, 2012 | 332 | ± 5.4% | 37% | 48% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling[37] | September 10–11, 2012 | 201 | ± 5.4% | 36% | 40% | — | 24% |
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 371 | ± 5.1% | 35% | 54% | — | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau |
Brian Schweitzer |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 165 | ± 7.63% | 14% | 78% | — | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | John Walsh (incumbent) | 48,665 | 64.04% | |
Democratic | John Bohlinger | 17,187 | 22.62% | |
Democratic | Dirk Adams | 10,139 | 13.34% | |
Total votes | 75,991 | 100.00% |
Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20.[41] The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office."[42]
Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana.[43][44]
Elected officials
Organizations
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Amanda Curtis | 82 | 64.0% | |
Democratic | Dirk Adams | 46 | 36.0% | |
Total votes | 128 | 100.0% |
Elected officials
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines |
Champ Edmunds |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 469 | ± 4.5% | 66% | 7% | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines |
Champ Edmunds |
Marc Racicot |
Corey Stapleton |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 472 | ± 4.51% | 26% | 3% | 42% | 6% | 22% |
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 340 | ± 5.3% | 28% | 5% | 47% | 5% | 14% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Daines | 110,565 | 83.37% | |
Republican | Susan Cundiff | 11,909 | 8.98% | |
Republican | Champ Edmunds | 10,151 | 7.65% | |
Total votes | 132,625 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[95] | Solid R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[96] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report[97] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics[98] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Amanda Curtis (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports[99] | August 18–19, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 55% | 35% | 2% | 8% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[100] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 684 | ± 5% | 53% | 35% | 1% | 11% |
Gravis Marketing[101] | September 29–30, 2014 | 535 | ± 4% | 54% | 41% | — | 5% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[102] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 549 | ± 5% | 55% | 34% | 0% | 10% |
The MSU-Billings Poll[103] | October 6–11, 2014 | 410 | ± 5% | 47% | 31% | 2%[104] | 21% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[102] | October 16–23, 2014 | 497 | ± 6% | 56% | 38% | 0% | 6% |
Gravis Marketing[105] | October 23–24, 2014 | 604 | ± 4% | 53% | 39% | — | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dirk Adams (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 20% | 44% | — | 36% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 49% | — | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | — | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 47% | — | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | — | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 51% | — | 13% |
Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 32% | 43% | — | 25% |
Harper Polling[106] | April 7–8, 2014 | 604 | ± 4.3% | 33% | 44% | — | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 37% | 39% | — | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 48% | — | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 34% | — | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 52% | — | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | — | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 49% | — | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 41% | 36% | — | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 38% | 50% | — | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 40% | 40% | — | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 49% | — | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 34% | — | 26% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 52% | — | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 37% | — | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 771 | ± 3.53% | 50% | 40% | — | 10% |
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 52% | 37% | — | 12% |
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 37% | — | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 46% | — | 9% |
Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 771 | ± 3.53% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 47% | — | 6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 39% | — | 13% |
Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 38% | — | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Walsh (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 35% | 52% | — | 13% |
Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 29% | 43% | — | 28% |
Rasmussen Reports[99] | March 17–18, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 37% | 51% | 4% | 9% |
Magellan Strategies[107] | April 1–2, 2014 | 2,490 | ± 1.96% | 36% | 49% | 9%[108] | 6% |
Harper Polling[106] | April 7–8, 2014 | 604 | ± 4.3% | 35% | 42% | — | 23% |
Hickman Analytics[109] | April 24–30, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 37% | 49% | — | 14% |
Vox Populi Polling[110] | May 21–22, 2014 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 33% | 56% | — | 11% |
Magellan Strategies[111] | June 4–5, 2014 | 761 | ± 3.57% | 39% | 55% | — | 6% |
Rasmussen Reports[99] | June 9–10, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 35% | 53% | 3% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[112] | July 17–18, 2014 | 574 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 46% | — | 15% |
Gravis Marketing[113] | July 20–22, 2014 | 741 | ± 4% | 41% | 45% | 6%[104] | 7% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[114] | July 5–24, 2014 | 838 | ± 3.6% | 39% | 55% | 2% | 4% |
Gravis Marketing[115] | July 24, 2014 | 781 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 9%[104] | 8% |
Vox Populi Polling[116] | August 3–4, 2014 | 798 | ± 3.5% | 34% | 47% | — | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Walsh (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 38% | — | 26% |
With Adams
with Baucus
With Bohlinger
With Juneau
With Keenan
With Lindeen
With Schweitzer
With Walsh
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Daines | 213,709 | 57.79% | +30.71% | |
Democratic | Amanda Curtis | 148,184 | 40.07% | −32.85% | |
Libertarian | Roger Roots | 7,933 | 2.14% | N/A | |
Total votes | 369,826 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
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