2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

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2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

 2004 November 2, 2010 2016 
Turnout47.61%
 
Nominee John Boozman Blanche Lincoln
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 451,617 288,156
Percentage 57.90% 36.95%

Boozman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Lincoln:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

Close

Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. However, the general election was won by U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman, whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican since Reconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator since the 1978 United States Senate election in Maine.[1]

Democratic primary

Summarize
Perspective

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff.[2]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.[3] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.[4]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

  • D.C. Morrison, businessman

Withdrew Before Primary

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
D.C.
Morrison
Other Undecided
Research 2000[8] May 10–12, 2010 600 ± 5% 46% 37% 6% 11%
Research 2000[9] April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 35% 7% (Drew Pritt) 15%
Talk Business[10] April 13, 2010 1,167 ± 3% 38% 31% 10% 20%
Research 2000[11] March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 31% 25%
Research 2000[12] November 30 – December 2, 2009 600 ± 4% 42% 26% 32%
Close

Results

Results by county:
Lincoln
  •   Lincoln—60-70%
  •   Lincoln—50-60%
  •   Lincoln—40-50%
Halter
  •   Halter—40-50%
  •   Halter—50-60%
  •   Halter—60-70%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 146,579 44.51%
Democratic Bill Halter 140,081 42.53%
Democratic D.C. Morrison 42,695 12.96%
Total votes 329,355 100.00%
Close

Runoff

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
Undecided
Research 2000[14] June 2–4, 2010 600 ± 4% 45% 49% 6%
Research 2000[15] May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 47% 9%
Close

Results

Runoff results by county:
Lincoln
  •   Lincoln—70-80%
  •   Lincoln—60-70%
  •   Lincoln—50-60%
Halter
  •   Halter—50-60%
  •   Halter—60-70%
  •   Halter—70-80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary runoff results[16][17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 134,756 52.00%
Democratic Bill Halter 124,405 48.00%
Total votes 259,161 100.00%
Close

Republican primary

Summarize
Perspective

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:[25]

  1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
  2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
  3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
  4. Tom Cox – 4%
  5. Kim Hendren – 2%
  6. Fred Ramey – 2%
  7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Randy
Alexander
Gilbert
Baker
John
Boozman
Curtis
Coleman
Kim
Hendren
Jim
Holt
Fred
Ramey
Conrad
Reynolds
Other Undecided
Research 2000[26] May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 12% 46% 6% 19% 4% 13%
Talk Business[27] April 13, 2010 1,357 ± 3% 3% 14% 46% 5% 3% 8% 1% 3% 17%
Close

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
Boozman
  •   Boozman—80-90%
  •   Boozman—70-80%
  •   Boozman—60-70%
  •   Boozman—50-60%
  •   Boozman—40-50%
  •   Boozman—30-40%
Holt
  •   Holt—30-40%
  •   Holt—40-50%
Boozman/Holt tie
  •   Boozman/Holt tie—20-30%
Baker
  •   Baker—30-40%
  •   Baker—50-60%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Boozman 75,010 52.73%
Republican Jim Holt 24,826 17.45%
Republican Gilbert Baker 16,540 11.63%
Republican Conrad Reynolds 7,128 5.01%
Republican Curtis Coleman 6,928 4.87%
Republican Kim Hendren 5,551 3.90%
Republican Randy Alexander 4,389 3.09%
Republican Fred Ramey 1,888 1.33%
Total votes 142,260 100.00%
Close

General election

Summarize
Perspective

Candidates

Campaign

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators.[32] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security, as well as trying to tie her name, and beliefs to Bill Clinton[33] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.[34]

Debates

More information No., Date ...
2010 United States Senate general election in Arkansas debate
No. Date Link Democratic Republican
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Blanche Lincoln John Boozman
1 October 13, 2010 c-span[35]|c-span[36] P P
Close

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[37] Lean R (flip) October 9, 2010
Inside Elections[38] Likely R (flip) October 8, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Safe R (flip) October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[40] Safe R (flip) October 9, 2010
CQ Politics[41] Lean R (flip) October 9, 2010
Close

Fundraising

More information Candidate (Party), Receipts ...
Candidate (Party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Blanche Lincoln (D) $9,508,007 $8,431,989 $1,886,132 $0
John Boozman (R) $1,452,241 $968,318 $483,923 $11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission[42]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
John
Boozman (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[43] October 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 55% 5% 4%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research[44] October 15–19, 2010 1,505 ± 2.5% 41% 55%
Mason-Dixon[45] October 15–19, 2010 625 ± 4% 34% 55% 6% 5%
Talk Business[46] October 14, 2010 1,953 ± 2.2% 36% 49% 8% 7%
Rasmussen Reports[47] September 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 55% 3% 5%
Reuters/Ipsos[48] September 17–19, 2010 600 ± 4% 39% 53% 1% 7%
Mason-Dixon[49] September 12–14, 2010 625 ± 4% 34% 51% 4% 11%
Rasmussen Reports[50] August 18, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 27% 65% 4% 3%
Rasmussen Reports[51] July 20, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 60% 2% 3%
Reuters/Ipsos[52] July 16–18, 2010 600 ± 4% 35% 54% 1% 10%
Talk Business[53] July 17, 2010 793 ± 3.7% 32% 57% 5% 6%
Magellan Strategies[54] July 12, 2010 879 ± 3.3% 29% 60% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[55] June 15, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% 61% 4% 3%
Research 2000[56] May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4% 38% 58% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[57] May 19, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 28% 66% 2% 4%
Research 2000[58] May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 40% 54%
Research 2000[59] April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% 52%
Rasmussen Reports[60] April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 30% 57% 9% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[61] March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 51% 6% 7%
Research 2000[62] March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 42% 49% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[63] March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 48% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports[64] February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 54% 4% 7%
Public Policy Polling[65] January 29–31, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 33% 56% 11%
Close
More information Poll Source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) March 20–22, 2009 600 ± 4% 48% 37% 16%
Public Policy Polling (report) August 21–24, 2009 784 ± 3.5% 40% 42% 18%
Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% 44% 37% 19%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 39% 47% 5% 8%
Zogby (report) November 16–17, 2009 501 ± 4.5% 41% 39% 2% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% 47% 6% 7%
Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 ± 4% 42% 41%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 51% 3% 7%
Public Policy Polling (report) January 29–31, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 35% 50% 15%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 52% 6% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 40% 45% 6% 8%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 41% 49% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 51% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 53% 12% 4%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 40% 47%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 39% 45%
Close
More information Poll Source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
Other Undecided
Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% 47% 28% 25%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% 44% 5% 10%
Zogby (report) November 16–17, 2009 501 ± 4.5% 45% 29% 2% 24%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 39% 46% 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 ± 4% 46% 30%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 47% 4% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 51% 7% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 43% 7% 12%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 43% 48% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 51% 5% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 30% 51% 11% 8%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 40% 50%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 40% 46%
Close
More information Poll Source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) August 21–24, 2009 784 ± 3.5% 40% 41% 19%
Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% 45% 37% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% 43% 5% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 40% 44% 7% 9%
Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 ± 4% 44% 39%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 48% 4% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 50% 7% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 41% 43% 7% 10%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 47% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 48% 7% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% 52% 8% 7%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% 46%
Close
More information Poll Source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 45% 6% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 51% 7% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 54% 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 41% 44%
Close
More information Poll Source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
John
Boozman (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 52% 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 40% 48% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 48% 8% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 56% 7% 7%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% 47%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 41% 50%
Close
More information Poll Source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 44% 5% 13%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 46% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 44% 7% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 48% 10% 9%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 44%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 42% 42%
Close
More information Poll Source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 42% 7% 15%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 45% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 42% 10% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 45% 15% 9%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 45%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 42% 42%
Close
More information Poll Source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 38% 9% 18%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 45% 44% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 40% 10% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 43% 11% 9%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 41%
Close
More information Poll Source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 43% 9% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 49% 12% 8%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 42% 43%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Bill Halter

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010[66]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Boozman 451,618 57.90% +13.83%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 288,156 36.95% −18.95%
Libertarian Trevor Drown 25,234 3.24% +3.24%
Green John Gray 14,430 1.85% +1.85%
Write-in 519 0.07% +0.04%
Total votes 779,957 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic
Close

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

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