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The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas occurred on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election.
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All 4 Arkansas seats to the United States House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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As the result of redistricting following the 2010 United States census, the boundaries of the state's congressional districts were redrawn, heavily favoring Republicans. Governor Mike Beebe, who signed the new map into law in April 2011, described it as the "status quo"[1] and not partisan.[2] In the new map, five counties are split between districts, the first time in Arkansas history that counties have not been kept intact in congressional districts.[1]
The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arkansas.
United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2012[3] | |||||
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Party | Votes | Percentage | Seats | +/– | |
Republican | 637,591 | 61.4% | 4 | +1 | |
Democratic | 304,770 | 29.4% | 0 | -1 | |
Green | 57,706 | 5.6% | 0 | - | |
Libertarian | 37,987 | 3.7% | 0 | - | |
Totals | 1,038,054 | 100% | 4 | — |
Results of the 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas by district:
District | Republican | Democratic | Green | Libertarian | Total | Result | |||||
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Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
District 1 | 138,800 | 56.23% | 96,601 | 39.13% | 6,427 | 2.60% | 5,015 | 2.03% | 246,843 | 100.0% | Republican Hold |
District 2 | 158,175 | 55.19% | 113,156 | 39.48% | 8,566 | 2.99% | 6,701 | 2.34% | 286,598 | 100.0% | Republican Hold |
District 3 | 186,467 | 75.90% | 0 | 0.00% | 39,318 | 16.01% | 19,875 | 8.09% | 245,660 | 100.0% | Republican Hold |
District 4 | 154,149 | 59.53% | 95,013 | 36.69% | 4,807 | 1.86% | 4,984 | 1.93% | 258,953 | 100.0% | Republican Gain |
Total | 637,591 | 61.42% | 304,770 | 29.36% | 57,706 | 5.56% | 37,987 | 3.66% | 1,038,054 | 100.0% |
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Results by county Crawford: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Ellington: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district had lost population,[4] and so was drawn in the new map to incorporate counties in southeastern Arkansas which were previously a part of the 4th district.[1] Republican incumbent Rick Crawford was first elected in 2010.
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Scott Ellington |
Clark Hall |
Gary Latanich |
Undecided |
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Talk Business/Hendrix College[12] | April 24–25, 2012 | 497 | ± 4.4% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 71% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Scott Ellington | 27,936 | 49.5 | |
Democratic | Clark M. Hall | 21,861 | 38.8 | |
Democratic | Gary Latanich | 6,605 | 11.7 | |
Total votes | 56,402 | 100.0 |
Labor unions
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Rick Crawford (R) |
Scott Ellington (D) |
Undecided |
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Anzalone Liszt Research Ellington (D)[20] | July 16–18, 2012 | 401 | ±4.9% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[21] | Safe R | November 5, 2012 |
Rothenberg[22] | Safe R | November 2, 2012 |
Roll Call[23] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | Safe R | November 5, 2012 |
NY Times[25] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
RCP[26] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
The Hill[27] | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Rick Crawford (incumbent) | 138,800 | 56.2 | |
Democratic | Scott Ellington | 96,601 | 39.2 | |
Libertarian | Jessica Paxton | 6,427 | 2.6 | |
Green | Jacob Holloway | 5,015 | 2.0 | |
Total votes | 246,843 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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Population growth in Arkansas's central counties meant that the 2nd district had to shrink in the new map.[4] Under the new map, the 2nd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans.[1]
Republican incumbent Timothy Griffin was first elected in 2010.
Labor unions
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Tim Griffin (incumbent) | 158,175 | 55.2 | |
Democratic | Herb Rule | 113,156 | 39.5 | |
Green | Barbara Ward | 8,566 | 3.0 | |
Libertarian | Chris Hayes | 6,701 | 2.3 | |
Total votes | 286,598 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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Population growth in Arkansas's northwestern counties meant that the 3rd district had to shrink in the new map.[4] Under the new map, the 3rd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans.[4]
Republican incumbent Steve Womack was first elected in 2010.
Aden would withdraw from the race after admitting to exaggerating his military record. Under Arkansas law, the Democratic Party was unable to field a replacement candidate for Aden and no Democrat appeared on the general election ballot.[36] On August 14, 2012, Kennedy received the endorsement of the Arkansas state AFL-CIO labor union.[17]
Labor unions
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Steve Womack (incumbent) | 186,467 | 75.9 | |
Green | Rebekah Kennedy | 39,318 | 16.0 | |
Libertarian | David Pangrac | 19,875 | 8.1 | |
Total votes | 245,660 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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Results by county Cotton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Jeffress: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Under the new map, the 4th district loses some territory in the east of the state to the 1st district and gains some Republican-leaning northwestern Arkansas counties from the 3rd district.[1][9] The district also gains Yell County from the 2nd district, which is expected to make the 4th district more favorable to Democrats.[9]
Democratic incumbent Mike Ross, who was first elected in 2000, chose not to seek re-election.[37]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Q. Byrum Hurst |
Gene Jeffress |
D.C. Morrison |
Undecided |
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Talk Business/Hendrix College[44] | May 10, 2012 | 418 | ± 4.8% | 23% | 22% | 11% | 44% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Gene Jeffress | 23,848 | 43.0 | |
Democratic | Q. Byrum Hurst | 19,812 | 35.7 | |
Democratic | DC Morrison | 11,771 | 21.2 | |
Total votes | 55,431 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Gene Jeffress | 15,266 | 60.7 | |
Democratic | Q. Byrum Hurst | 9,895 | 39.3 | |
Total votes | 25,161 | 100.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Cotton |
John Cowart |
Beth Anne Rankin |
Undecided |
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Talk Business/Hendrix College[46] | May 10, 2012 | 437 | ± 4.7% | 51% | 6% | 33% | 10% |
Talk Business/Hendrix College[47] | April 17, 2012 | 542 | ± 4.2% | 38.5% | 4% | 38.5% | 19% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Tom Cotton | 20,899 | 57.6 | |
Republican | Beth Anne Rankin | 13,460 | 37.1 | |
Republican | John Cowart | 1,953 | 5.4 | |
Total votes | 36,312 | 100.0 |
Bobby Tullis had considered seeking Libertarian nomination for the seat;[48] however in December 2011 Tullis gave his support to Republican candidate Beth Anne Rankin;[43] nevertheless, he was subsequently nominated as the Libertarian candidate.
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report[51] | Likely R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
Rothenberg[22] | Safe R (flip) | November 2, 2012 |
Roll Call[23] | Safe R (flip) | November 4, 2012 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | Safe R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
NY Times[25] | Safe R (flip) | November 4, 2012 |
RCP[26] | Safe R (flip) | November 4, 2012 |
The Hill[27] | Likely R (flip) | November 4, 2012 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Tom Cotton | 154,149 | 59.5 | |
Democratic | Gene Jeffress | 95,013 | 36.7 | |
Libertarian | Bobby Tullis | 4,984 | 1.9 | |
Green | J. Joshua Drake | 4,807 | 1.9 | |
Total votes | 258,953 | 100.0 | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
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