Opinion polling for the next German federal election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In the run-up to the next German federal election, which will take place on or before 25 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.
Electoral threshold of 5%
Summarize
Perspective
Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to party lists that either pass the "five percent hurdle" of federally valid second votes, or win at least three constituencies. For example, in the 2021 German federal election this granted Die Linke (The Left) full proportional representation as it won three constituencies despite receiving 4.9% of second-ballot votes. In 2022, this three-constituency rule was abolished, but was later reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union (CSU) which competes only in Bavaria. As the CDU/CSU "Union" don't compete against each other and form one faction in the parliament, both "sister parties" are combined in most polls, but some show separate numbers.
In the 2025 snap election, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) failed to meet the 5% electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation. Both of these parties are still regularly polled despite not being present in the Bundestag.
Also shown in some of the polls are the Free Voters (FW) which are present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Other parties are summed up as "others".
Reliability of pollsters
The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and American-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association.[1]
Poll results
Graphical summary
2025
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Abs. | Union | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke | BSW | FDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[2] | 25–28 Apr 2025 | 2,275 | – | 26 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Tie |
| INSA[3] | 25–28 Apr 2025 | 2,006 | – | 25 | 25 | 15.5 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 6.5 | Tie |
| Forsa[4] | 22–28 Apr 2025 | 2,004 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| INSA[3] | 22–25 Apr 2025 | 1,204 | – | 25 | 25 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 6 | Tie |
| INSA[3] | 17–22 Apr 2025 | 2,010 | – | 25 | 25 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | Tie |
| Verian[5] | 15–22 Apr 2025 | 1,469 | – | 26 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Forsa[6] | 15–17 Apr 2025 | 1,502 | – | 25 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| INSA[3] | 14–17 Apr 2025 | 1,205 | – | 25 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| INSA[3] | 11–14 Apr 2025 | 2,002 | – | 25.5 | 24.5 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5 | 1 |
| Forsa[6] | 8–14 Apr 2025 | 2,502 | 21 | 25 | 24 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| INSA[3] | 7–11 Apr 2025 | 1,202 | – | 25 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[7] | 8–10 Apr 2025 | 1,322 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Allensbach[8] | 28 Mar – 9 Apr 2025 | 1,048 | – | 27 | 23.5 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| INSA[3] | 4–7 Apr 2025 | 2,008 | – | 24.5 | 24.5 | 16 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 5.5 | Tie |
| GMS[9] | 2–7 Apr 2025 | 1,022 | – | 26 | 25 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Forsa[6] | 1–7 Apr 2025 | 2,501 | 19 | 25 | 24 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Ipsos[10] | 4–5 Apr 2025 | 1,000 | – | 24 | 25 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| INSA[3] | 31 Mar – 4 Apr 2025 | 1,206 | – | 24 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 6 | Tie |
| Infratest dimap[11] | 31 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 | 1,334 | – | 26 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| INSA[3] | 28–31 Mar 2025 | 2,006 | – | 26.5 | 23.5 | 15.5 | 12 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 3 |
| Forsa[6] | 25–31 Mar 2025 | 2,508 | – | 25 | 24 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| INSA[3] | 24–28 Mar 2025 | 1,204 | – | 26 | 23 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Verian[5] | 19–25 Mar 2025 | 1,381 | – | 27 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| YouGov[2] | 21–24 Mar 2025 | 1,890 | – | 26 | 24 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| INSA[3] | 21–24 Mar 2025 | 2,004 | – | 27 | 23.5 | 14.5 | 12 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Forsa[6] | 18–24 Mar 2025 | 2,502 | – | 26 | 23 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| INSA[3] | 17–21 Mar 2025 | 1,202 | – | 27 | 23 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[7] | 18–20 Mar 2025 | 1,305 | 11 | 27 | 22 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| INSA[3] | 14–17 Mar 2025 | 2,008 | – | 29 | 22 | 15.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Forsa[6] | 11–17 Mar 2025 | 2,501 | – | 27 | 23 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| INSA[3] | 10–14 Mar 2025 | 1,201 | – | 28 | 22 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Allensbach[8] | 27 Feb – 11 Mar 2025 | 1,031 | – | 29 | 21 | 16 | 11.5 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| INSA[3] | 7–10 Mar 2025 | 2,003 | – | 28.5 | 22 | 16.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 6.5 |
| Forsa[6] | 4–10 Mar 2025 | 2,504 | – | 28 | 22 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| INSA[3] | 3–7 Mar 2025 | 1,201 | – | 28 | 21 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[7] | 4–6 Mar 2025 | 1,249 | 8 | 28 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap[11] | 4–5 Mar 2025 | 1,325 | – | 29 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| INSA[3] | 28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 | 2,002 | – | 29.5 | 22 | 15.5 | 11 | 9.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 4 | 7.5 |
| Forsa[6] | 24 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 | 3,001 | 16 | 28 | 22 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Ipsos[10] | 28 Feb – 1 Mar 2025 | 1,000 | – | 29 | 22 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| INSA[3] | 24–28 Feb 2025 | 1,001 | – | 30 | 22 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 2025 federal election | 23 Feb 2025 | – | 17.5 | 28.5 | 20.8 | 16.4 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 5.0[a] | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.7 |
CDU and CSU
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
CDU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke | CSU | BSW | FDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 17–22 Apr 2025 | 2.010 | 19.5 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| INSA | 11–14 Apr 2025 | 2.002 | 20.0 | 24.5 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| INSA | 4–7 Apr 2025 | 2.008 | 18.5 | 24.5 | 16.0 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| INSA | 28–31 Mar 2025 | 2.006 | 21.0 | 23.5 | 15.5 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| INSA | 21–24 Mar 2025 | 2.004 | 21.0 | 23.5 | 14.5 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| INSA | 14–17 Mar 2025 | 2.008 | 23.5 | 22.0 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| INSA | 7–10 Mar 2025 | 2.003 | 22.5 | 22.0 | 16.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| INSA | 28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 | 2.002 | 23.0 | 22.0 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| 2025 federal election | 23 Feb 2025 | – | 22.6 | 20.8 | 16.4 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 5.0[a] | 4.3 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
By Western and Eastern Germany
Western Germany
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Union | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke | BSW | FDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 25–28 Apr 2025 | 1,811 in West Germany | 28 | 23 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| INSA | 11–14 Apr 2025 | 2,002 in all of Germany | 28 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| YouGov | 21–24 Mar 2025 | 1,715 in West Germany | 29 | 21 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 2025 federal election | 23 Feb 2025 | – | 30.7 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 12.8 |
Eastern Germany
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
AfD | Union | Linke | SPD | BSW | Grüne | FDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 25–28 Apr 2025 | 464 in West Germany | 35 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| INSA | 11–14 Apr 2025 | 2,002 in all of Germany | 38 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| YouGov | 21–24 Mar 2025 | 429 in East Germany | 35 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 2025 federal election | 23 Feb 2025 | – | 34.6 | 18.4 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 16.2 |
Chancellor polling
Merz vs. Weidel
Preferred coalition
Constituency projections
Summarize
Perspective
With the new electoral reform, constituency seats are only awarded if covered by the votes cast for the party in that state. As such, the number of constituency seats won by a party may be lower than that party's number of constituency pluralities.[12]
Constituency pluralities
| Polling firm | Release date | Union | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 22 Apr 2025 | 174 | 58 | 48 | 14 | 5 |
| election.de | 15 Apr 2025 | 181 | 50 | 47 | 14 | 7 |
| INSA | 14 Apr 2025 | 165 | 50 | 59 | 20 | 5 |
| INSA | 7 Apr 2025 | 160 | 65 | 56 | 13 | 5 |
| INSA | 31 Mar 2025 | 178 | 48 | 51 | 16 | 6 |
| INSA | 24 Mar 2025 | 192 | 52 | 35 | 12 | 8 |
| INSA | 17 Mar 2025 | 199 | 44 | 40 | 7 | 9 |
| election.de | 15 Mar 2025 | 192 | 45 | 43 | 11 | 8 |
| INSA | 10 Mar 2025 | 189 | 41 | 55 | 8 | 6 |
| 2025 federal election | 23 Feb 2025 | 190 | 46 | 45 | 12 | 6 |
By probability
| Polling firm | Release date | Union | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | Likely | Lean | Safe | Likely | Lean | Safe | Likely | Lean | Safe | Likely | Lean | Safe | Likely | Lean | ||
| election.de | 15 Apr 2025 | 41 | 93 | 47 | 35 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| election.de | 15 Mar 2025 | 82 | 75 | 35 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 2025 federal election | 23 Feb 2025 | 190 | 46 | 45 | 12 | 6 | ||||||||||
Second place
| Polling firm | Release date | SPD | Union | AfD | Grüne | Linke |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| election.de | 15 Apr 2025 | 75 | 82 | 117 | 21 | 4 |
| election.de | 15 Mar 2025 | 94 | 82 | 96 | 24 | 3 |
| 2025 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | 112 | 83 | 78 | 22 | 4 |
Notes
- Coalition would break the Cordon sanitaire/Firewall against the far-right in Germany with the AfD.
References
External links
Wikiwand - on
Seamless Wikipedia browsing. On steroids.