In preparation for the next presidential election in Romania, which took place on November 24 (first round) and second round which would have taken place on December 8, 2024, various polling companies and organizations in Romania conducted a series of opinion polls to measure and track voting intentions of the electorate.
First round graphic representation
Second round
Georgescu vs Lasconi (annulled)
| Poll | Date | Sample | Georgescu Ind. |
Lasconi USR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRES | 17 - 20 Dec 2024 | 1,000 | 48.0 | 29.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 28 Nov–5 Dec 2024 | 5.505 | 46.4 | 48.6 |
| Sociopol[1] | 3–4 Dec 2024 | 1.200 | 63.0 | 37.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 1–4 Dec 2024 | 2.116 | 47.0 | 43.8 |
| Curs | 1 Dec 2024 | 24.629 | 57.8 | 42.2 |
| Sociopol[1] | 27–29 Nov 2024 | 1.000 | 60.0 | 40.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 26–28 Nov 2024 | 2.116 | 45.3 | 47.5 |
First round
Summarize
Perspective
After the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)
| Poll | Date | Sample | Georgescu Ind. |
Lasconi USR |
Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
Ciucă PNL |
Geoană Ind. |
Kelemen UDMR |
Diaconescu Ind. |
Terheș PNCR |
Birchall Ind. |
Orban FD |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election (annulled first round) | 24 Nov 2024 | 9.242.186 | 22.9 | 19.2 | 19.1 | 13.9 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| AtlasIntel | 20–22 Nov 2024 | 1.692 | 8.1 | 17.8 | 23.7 | 16.9 | 14.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Verifield for USR | 20–21 Nov 2024 | 1.803 | 10.6 | 19.0 | 24.5 | 19.0 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | — | 0.6 |
| AtlasIntel | 15–20 Nov 2024 | 2.003 | 6.2 | 15.3 | 24.3 | 15.4 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| INSOMAR | 14–20 Nov 2024 | 1.042 | 6.8 | 12.7 | 24.4 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | — | — | — |
| Verifield for USR | 8–14 Nov 2024 | 968 | 4.9 | 17.1 | 26.3 | 18.8 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 2.8 | — | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| INSCOP | 7–12 Nov 2024 | 1.100 | 5.4 | 14.3 | 25.3 | 19.1 | 9.1 | 13.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6[2] |
| BCS | 7–10 Nov 2024 | 1.157 | 5.8 | 14.3 | 27.1 | 11.9 | 17.7 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | — |
| Sociopol[1] | 4–8 Nov 2024 | 1.001 | — | 12.0 | 29.0 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | — | — | — |
| CIRA | 1–6 Nov 2024 | 1.150 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 29.0 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 1.0 | — | — |
| Verifield for USR | 1–6 Nov 2024 | 1.064 | 4.6 | 15.7 | 25.9 | 21.2 | 8.5 | 13.2 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0[3] |
| CURS[4] | 30 Oct–5 Nov | 1.067 | — | 12.0 | 28.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | — | 1.0 |
| Argument | 18-23 Oct 2024 | 1.100 | — | 15.9 | 26.8 | 18.4 | 12.9 | 14.6 | 1.3 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 3.6 |
| Sociopol[1] | 14-18 Oct 2024 | 1.003 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 26.0 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | — | 1.0 | — |
| INSCOP | 11-18 Oct 2024 | 1.106 | — | 15.0 | 24.1 | 20.7 | 8.2 | 18.1 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| CURS[5] | 11-16 Oct 2024 | 1.006 | — | 14.0 | 26.0 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Verifield for USR | 7-9 Oct 2024 | 1.009 | — | 17.1 | 23.4 | 19.8 | 6.2 | 17.2 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Sociopol[1] | 7-9 Oct 2024 | 1.004 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | — |
Before the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)
| Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
Ciucă PNL |
Șoșoacă S.O.S. |
Drulă/Lasconi USR |
Kelemen UDMR |
Cioloș REPER |
Kövesi Ind. |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSOMAR-Avangarde | 15–27 Sep 2024 | 1.100 | 15.0 | 30.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | — | — | —[a] |
| CURS | 10–23 Sep 2024 | 1.067 | 16.0 | 29.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | — | — | — | —[b] |
| INSCOP | 11–16 Sep 2024 | 1.102 | 20.8 | 20.5 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 12.5 | 16.0 | 3.6 | — | — | —[c] |
| FlashData | 5–13 Sep 2024 | 1.100 | 16.0 | 24.0 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | — | — | — | 7.0 |
| Verifield | 15–30 august 2024 | 1.793 | 17.8 | 21.9 | 14.9 | 5.9 | 12.9 | 16.3 | 1.8 | — | — | 8.5 |
| Sociopol | 26 Aug-3 Sep 2024 | 1,005 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | — | — | —[d] |
| Verifield for USR | Aug 2024 | — | 21.0 | 17.2 | 14.1 | 7.3 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 2.3 | 8.8 | ||
| The Center for International Research and Analyses | 24–30 Aug 2024 | 1,099 | 14.0 | 25.0 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | — | — | 5.0[e] |
| CURS | 6–22 Aug 2024 | 1,067 | 15.0 | 32.0 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | — | — | — | 4.0 |
| ARA for Antena3 | 9–26 Jul 2024 | 1,009 | 20.0 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | — | — | — | 14.0 |
| CURS | 18–26 Jul 2024 | 1,067 | 15.0 | 31.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | — | — | — |
| Sociopol | 9–17 Jul 2024 | 1,002 | 15.0 | 25.0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | — | — | —[f] |
| CURS | 26 Jun–2 Jul 2024 | 1,067 | 17.0 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | — | — | 2.0 |
| INSCOP | 19–27 June 2024 | 1,100 | 26.7 | 17.8 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 14.3 | 3.4 | — | — | 1.2 |
| CSPS | June 2024 | 1,013 | 24.0 | 16.0 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | — | — | — |
| INSCOP | 20–25 May 2024 | 1,100 | 23.7 | 18.2 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 5.5 | — | — | 6.4 |
| AtlasIntel | 5–9 April 2024 | 1,764 | 33.6 | — | 11.8 | — | 10.7 | 10.9 | 1.4 | 6.9 | — | |
| 27 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 5 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 0.7 | 6.1 | — | ||||
| 27.3 | 9.2 | 12.4 | — | 9.8 | 13.6 | 3.0 | 6.4 | — | - | |||
| INSCOP | 14 Feb–5 Mar 2024 | 2,000 | 26.0 | 24.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | — | 3.0 | — | 9.0 | - |
| INSCOP Research | 16–24 Jan 2024 | 1,100 | 26.5 | 18.9 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 5.1 | - | 1.3 |
| Snap Market Research | 3–8 Jan 2024 | 998 | 12 | 29 | 13 | 8 | 14 | —[g] | 5 | — | 10[h] | 9[i] |
Opinion polls with Geoană (2023)
| Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
Ciucă PNL |
Șoșoacă S.O.S. |
Drulă USR |
Lasconi USR |
Orban FD |
Kelemen UDMR |
Cioloș REPER |
Kövesi Ind. |
Hellvig Ind. |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSCOP | 20–27 Nov 2023 | 1,100 | 26.2 | 20.8 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 14.4 | 4.2 | — | — | 2.4 | 3.9 | — | — | 1.9 |
| INSCOP | 23 Oct–2 Nov 2023 | 1,100 | 27.7 | 21.8[j] | 18.9 | — | 10.5 | — | 12.1 | — | 3.1 | 4.3 | — | — | — |
| AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 20.4 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 13.4 |
| INSCOP | 15–22 Sep 2023 | 1,550 | 25.3 | 19.5 | 18.7 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 5.6 | — | — | 2.7 | 4.1 | — | — | 3.4 |
| AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 22.6 | — | 10.6 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 8.0 | — | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 16.4 | 0.4 | 20.9[k] |
| 14.6 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 4.5 | — | 5.1 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 16.9 | 0.5 | 24.2[l] | |||
| Election | Nov 2019 | — | — | 22.26 | — | 37.82 | — | 15.02 | — | 3.87 | — | — | — | — | |
Opinion polls without Geoană (2023)
| Poll | Date | Sample | Ciucă PNL |
Ciolacu PSD |
Drulă USR |
Kelemen UDMR |
Kövesi Ind. |
Simion AUR |
Șoșoacă S.O.S. |
Cioloș REPER |
Orban FD |
Hellvig Ind. |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSCOP | 20–27 Nov 2023 | 1,100 | 14.1 | 27.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | — | 18.0 | 19.1 | 6.7 | — | — | 4.9 |
| AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 8.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 15.7 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 24.1[m] |
| Election | Nov 2019 | — | 37.82 | 22.26 | 15.02 | 3.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Opinion polls with potential candidates (before 2023)
| Poll | Date | Sample | Cîțu | Orban | Ciolacu | Barna | Cioloș | Drulă | Diaconescu | Kelemen | Simion | Șoșoacă | Geoană | Dragnea | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gazeta Civică[6] | 15–31 Jul 2021 | 1,112 | 11.0 | — | 4.0 | — | — | 22.0 | — | 5.0 | — | — | 33.0 | — | 6.0 |
| INSOMAR[7] | 1–8 May 2021 | 1,030 | — | 12.03 | 16.1 | 22.00 | 13.4 | — | 8.3 | — | 14.2 | 4.0 | — | 6.6 | 3.37 |
| INSOMAR[8] | 8–11 Feb 2021 | 1,030 | 3.0 | 11.4 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 12.6 | — | — | 3.0 | 17.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 8.96 |
| Election | Nov 2019 | 37.82 | 22.26 | 15.02 | 5.72 | 3.87 | 0.34 | — | — | 14.97 | |||||
The first round among Romanian citizens from the Republic of Moldova
| Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
Ciucă PNL |
Șoșoacă S.O.S. |
Drulă USR |
Kelemen UDMR |
Cioloș REPER |
Piedone PUSL |
Others/ N/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iDATA | 22 – 26 Apr 2024 | 1,006 | 15.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 58.0[9] |
| 34.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 1.6[10] | 2.3 | 12.7 | 14.1 | — | |||
| CBS-Research | 6 – 13 Apr 2024 | 1,008 | 14.1 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | — | — | — | 72.8[11] |
| 51.9 | 17.3 | 3.7 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 3.3 | — | — | — | — |
Hypothetical second round
Geoană vs Ciolacu
Geoană vs Simion
| Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Simion AUR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSCOP | 14 Feb–5 Mar 2024 | 2,000 | 75.0 | 25.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 71.8 | 28.2 |
| INSCOP | 15–22 Sep 2023 | 1,550 | 63.5 | 36.5 |
| AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 69.5 | 30.5 |
Geoană vs Ciucă
Geoană vs Kövesi
| Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Kövesi Ind. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSCOP | 14 Feb–5 Mar 2024 | 2,000 | 66.0 | 34.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 61.2 | 38.8 |
| AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 53.1 | 46.9 |
Geoană vs Lasconi
Ciolacu vs Simion
| Poll | Date | Sample | Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 69.5 | 30.5 |
| INSCOP | 15–22 Sep 2023 | 1,550 | 58.8 | 41.2 |
| AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 54.1 | 45.9 |
Ciolacu vs Lasconi
Ciolacu vs Drulă
| Poll | Date | Sample | Ciolacu PSD |
Drulă USR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 50.4 | 49.6 |
Ciolacu vs Ciucă
Ciolacu vs Kövesi
| Poll | Date | Sample | Kövesi Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 58.6 | 41.4 |
| AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 57.8 | 42.2 |
Trust in politicians
Notes
- Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 2%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 1%
- Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 2%
- Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4,5%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR: 2,0%, Ana Birchall (Ind.): 0,9%
- Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 7%
- Ludovic Orban (FD): 1%, Cozmin Gușă (IND): 1%
- Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 5.0
- Dan Chitic (BSR): 7%
References
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