Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian presidential election

In preparation for the next presidential elections in Romania, which will take place on November 24 (first round) and December 8, 2024 (second round), various polling companies and organizations in Romania have already conducted a series of opinion polls to measure and track voting intention among the electorate in assembly. The results of all these opinion polls are shown in the annual tables below in this Wikipedia article.

First round graphic representation

First round

After the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Ciolacu PSD	Simion AUR	Ciucă PNL	Lasconi USR	Kelemen UDMR	Diaconescu Ind.	Terheș PNCR	Orban FD	Others
Argument	18-23 Oct 2024	1.100	14.6	26.8	18.4	12.9	15.9	1.3	4.8	0.4	0.7	4.1
Sociopol[1]	14-18 Oct 2024	1.003	10.0	26.0	20.0	17.0	13.0	2.0	9.0	1.0	1.0	1.0[lower-alpha 1]
INSCOP	11-18 Oct 2024	1.106	18.1	24.1	20.7	8.2	15.0	3.8	5.1	1.9	1.9	1.2[lower-alpha 2]
CURS	11-16 Oct 2024	1.006	15.0	26.0	17.0	15.0	14.0	2.0	5.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
Verifield for USR	7-9 Oct 2024	1.009	17.2	23.4	19.8	6.2	17.1	3.8	7.6	3.1	0.7	1.1[2]
Sociopol[1]	7-9 Oct 2024	1.004	10.0	26.0	19.0	17.0	12.0	2.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	2.0[lower-alpha 3]

Before the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Ciolacu PSD	Simion AUR	Ciucă PNL	Șoșoacă S.O.S.	USR [3]	Kelemen UDMR	Cioloș REPER	Kövesi Ind.	Others
INSOMAR-Avangarde	15–27 Sep 2024	1.100	15.0	30.0	11.0	17.0	7.0	14.0	2.0	—	—	—[lower-alpha 4]
CURS	10–23 Sep 2024	1.067	16.0	29.0	11.0	18.0	7.0	12.0	—	—	—	—[lower-alpha 5]
INSCOP	11–16 Sep 2024	1.102	20.8	20.5	12.4	5.6	12.5	16.0	3.6	—	—	—[lower-alpha 6]
FlashData	5–13 Sep 2024	1.100	16.0	24.0	19.0	13.0	8.0	13.0	—	—	—	7.0
Verifield	15–30 august 2024	1.793	17.8	21.9	14.9	5.9	12.9	16.3	1.8	—	—	8.5
Sociopol	26 Aug-3 Sep 2024	1,005	14.0	26.0	19.0	10.0	9.0	14.0	1.0	—	—	—[lower-alpha 7]
Verifield for USR	Aug 2024	TBA	21.0	17.2	14.1	7.3	13.9	15.3	2.3			8.8
The Center for International Research and Analyses	24–30 Aug 2024	1,099	14.0	25.0	13.0	16.0	11.0	13.0	3.0	—	—	5.0[lower-alpha 8]
CURS	6–22 Aug 2024	1,067	15.0	32.0	14.0	19.0	5.0	11.0	—	—	—	4.0
ARA for Antena3	9–26 Jul 2024	1,009	20.0	28.0	10.0	6.0	12.0	12.0	—	—	—	14.0
CURS	18–26 Jul 2024	1,067	15.0	31.0	15.0	19.0	4.0	12.0	3.0	—	—	—
Sociopol	9–17 Jul 2024	1,002	15.0	25.0	19.0	12.0	9.0	14.0	1.0	—	—	—[lower-alpha 9]
CURS	26 Jun–2 Jul 2024	1,067	17.0	30.0	13.0	20.0	6.0	9.0	3.0	—	—	2.0
INSCOP	19 - 27 June 2024	1,100	26.7	17.8	11.2	11.9	13.4	14.3	3.4	—	—	1.2
CSPS	June 2024	1,013	24.0	16.0	28.0	6.0	4.0	17.0	5.0	—	—	—
INSCOP	20 - 25 May 2024	1,100	23.7	18.2	13.5	11.5	12.5	8.6	5.5	—	—	6.4
AtlasIntel	5-9 April 2024	1,764	33.6	—	11.8	—	10.7	10.9	1.4	6.9	—
			27	9.6	12.6	5	10.6	11.3	0.7	6.1	—
27.3	9.2	12.4	—	9.8	13.6	3.0	6.4	—	-
INSCOP	14 Feb -5 Mar 2024	2,000	26.0	24.0	13.0	12.0	8.0	—	3.0	—	9.0	-
INSCOP Research	16-24 jan 2024	1,100	26.5	18.9	13.3	11.4	14.0	5.9	3.6	5.1	-	1.3
Snap Market Research	3–8 Jan 2024	998	12	29	13	8	14	—[lower-alpha 10]	5	—	10[lower-alpha 11]	9[lower-alpha 12]

Opinion polls with Geoană (independent) (2023)

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Ciolacu PSD	Simion AUR	Ciucă PNL	Șoșoacă S.O.S.	Drulă USR	Lasconi USR	Orban FD	Kelemen UDMR	Cioloș REPER	Kövesi Ind.	Hellvig Ind.	Others
INSCOP	20–27 Nov 2023	1,100	26.2	20.8	14.0	12.1	14.4	4.2	—	—	2.4	3.9	—	—	1.9
INSCOP	23 Oct–2 Nov 2023	1,100	27.7	21.8[lower-alpha 13]	18.9	—	10.5	—	12.1	—	3.1	4.3	—	—	—
AtlasIntel	20–29 Oct 2023	2,000	20.4	10.3	7.7	0.7	13.3	6.9	2.3	3.4	3.0	2.4	10.9	6.4	13.4
INSCOP	15–22 Sep 2023	1,550	25.3	19.5	18.7	11.2	10.1	5.6	—	—	2.7	4.1	—	—	3.4
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jan 2023	2,000	22.6	—	10.6	4.9	6.1	8.0	—	3.8	4.4	2.0	16.4	0.4	20.9[lower-alpha 14]
			14.6	6.2	9.7	4.6	5.5	4.5	—	5.1	2.9	5.1	16.9	0.5	24.2[lower-alpha 15]
Election	Nov 2019	—	—	22.26	—	37.82	—	15.02		—	3.87	—	—	—	—

Opinion polls without Geoană (2023)

Poll	Date	Sample	Ciucă PNL	Ciolacu PSD	Drulă USR	Kelemen UDMR	Kövesi Ind.	Simion AUR	Șoșoacă S.O.S.	Cioloș REPER	Orban FD	Hellvig Ind.	Others
INSCOP	20–27 Nov 2023	1,100	14.1	27.4	7.1	2.7	—	18.0	19.1	6.7	—	—	4.9
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jan 2023	2,000	8.0	13.3	7.4	2.1	15.7	10.4	5.9	5.3	5.0	2.9	24.1[lower-alpha 16]
Election	Nov 2019	—	37.82	22.26	15.02	3.87	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Opinion polls with potential candidates (before 2023)

Poll	Date	Sample	Cîțu PNL	Orban PNL	Ciolacu PSD	Barna USR PLUS	Cioloș USR PLUS	Drulă USR PLUS	Diaconescu PMP	Kelemen UDMR	Simion AUR	Șoșoacă NR/S.O.S.	Geoană Ind.	Dragnea PAINE/ApP	Others
Gazeta Civică[4]	15–31 Jul 2021	1,112	11.0	—	4.0	—	—	22.0	—	5.0	—	—	33.0	—	6.0
INSOMAR[5]	1–8 May 2021	1,030	—	12.03	16.1	22.00	13.4	—	8.3	—	14.2	4.0	—	6.6	3.37
INSOMAR[6]	8–11 Feb 2021	1,030	3.0	11.4	23.0	21.0	12.6	—	—	3.0	17.0	—	—	0.0	8.96
Election	Nov 2019		37.82		22.26	15.02			5.72	3.87	0.34		—	—	14.97

Second round

Geoană vs Ciolacu

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Ciolacu PSD
INSCOP	19 - 27 June 2024	1,100	63.7	36.3
INSCOP	14 Feb -5 Mar 2024	2,000	61.0	39.0
AtlasIntel	20–29 Oct 2023	2,000	64.9	35.1

Geoană vs Simion

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Simion AUR
INSCOP	14 Feb -5 Mar 2024	2,000	75.0	25.0
AtlasIntel	20–29 Oct 2023	2,000	71.8	28.2
INSCOP	15–22 Sep 2023	1,550	63.5	36.5
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jan 2023	2,000	69.5	30.5

Geoană vs Ciucă

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Ciucă PNL
INSCOP	19 - 27 June 2024	1,100	63.9	36.1
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jan 2023	2,000	76.2	23.8

Geoană vs Kövesi

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Kövesi Ind.
INSCOP	14 Feb -5 Mar 2024	2,000	66.0	34.0
AtlasIntel	20–29 Oct 2023	2,000	61.2	38.8
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jan 2023	2,000	53.1	46.9

Geoană vs Lasconi

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Lasconi USR
INSCOP	19 - 27 June 2024	1,200	66.2	33.8

Ciolacu vs Simion

Poll	Date	Sample	Ciolacu PSD	Simion AUR
AtlasIntel	20–29 Oct 2023	2,000	69.5	30.5
INSCOP	15–22 Sep 2023	1,550	58.8	41.2
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jan 2023	2,000	54.1	45.9

Ciolacu vs Lasconi

Poll	Date	Sample	Ciolacu PSD	Lasconi USR
INSCOP	19 - 27 June 2024	2,000	58.0	42.0

Ciolacu vs Drulă

Poll	Date	Sample	Ciolacu PSD	Drulă USR
AtlasIntel	20–29 Oct 2023	2,000	50.4	49.6

Ciolacu vs Ciucă

Poll	Date	Sample	Ciolacu PSD	Ciucă PNL
INSCOP	14 Feb -5 Mar 2024	2,000	63.0	37.0
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jan 2023	2,000	51.7	48.3

Ciolacu vs Kövesi

Poll	Date	Sample	Kövesi Ind.	Ciolacu PSD
AtlasIntel	20–29 Oct 2023	2,000	58.6	41.4
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jan 2023	2,000	57.8	42.2

The first round among Romanian citizens from the Republic of Moldova

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Ciolacu PSD	Simion AUR	Ciucă PNL	Șoșoacă S.O.S.	Drulă USR	Kelemen UDMR	Cioloș REPER	Piedone PUSL	Others/ n/a
iDATA	22 – 26 Apr	1,006	15.0	3.1	2.4	3.4	4.8	0.7	1.0	5.5	6.1	58.0[7]
			34.6	7.1	5.5	7.8	11.1	1.6[8]	2.3	12.7	14.1	—
CBS-Research	6 – 13 Apr	1,008	14.1	4.7	1.0	2.4	4.1	0.9	—	—	—	72.8[9]
			51.9	17.3	3.7	15.0	14.0	3.3	—	—	—	—

Trust in politicians

Poll	Date	Sample	Geoană Ind.	Ciolacu PSD	Simion AUR	Ciucă PNL	Șoșoacă S.O.S.	Lasconi USR	Kelemen UDMR	Cioloș REPER	Kövesi Ind.	Others
INSCOP Research	19 - 27 jun 2024	1,100	33.4	23.6	18.0	21.4	20.2	21.3	8.5	-	-	-

Notes

1. Călin Georgescu (Ind.): 1%
2. Ana Birchall (Ind.): 0.9%
3. Călin Georgescu (Ind.): 2%
4. Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 2%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 1%
5. Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 2%
6. Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4,5%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR: 2,0%, Ana Birchall (Ind.): 0,9%
7. Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 7%
8. Ludovic Orban (FD): 1%, Cozmin Gușă (IND): 1%
9. Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 5.0
10. In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
11. In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
12. Dan Chitic (BSR): 7%
13. With PNL endorsement
14. Don't know 11.1, invalid/blank vote 9.8
15. Don't know 13.1, invalid/blank vote 11.1
16. Don't know 13.0, invalid/blank vote 11.1

References

1. Polling institute that has traditionally overestimated AUR in polls. Exemple
2. Birchall 0.7 Altii 0.4
3. Cătălin Drulă in January, February, April and May 2024 Elena Lasconi since june 2024
4. "Vă prezentăm cifrele ultimului sondaj pentru Palatul Cotroceni" (in Romanian). Gazeta Civică | Cotidian Național de opinie și atitudine civică!. Archived from the original on 2021-08-04. Retrieved 2021-08-05.
5. "Opțiuni politice de mai | INSOMAR.ORG". insomar.org (in Romanian). Retrieved 2021-05-14.
6. "SONDAJ INSOMAR. Răsturnare de situație – pe cine vor românii la Cotroceni. Calculele care dau fiori clasei politice". Realitatea de Tulcea. 2021-02-12. ^{[permanent dead link]}
7. Niciunul dintre cei menționați – 15% Nu știu/Nu răspund – 41,6% Dan Barna – 1,4%
8. Dan Barna 3.2%
9. 44% dintre respondenți au arătat că nu au decis încă pentru cine ar vota la viitoarele alegeri prezidențiale din România, în timp ce 24,8% nu ar participa la vot. 4.0% NR