Opinion polling for the 2015 Israeli legislative election

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Israeli polls do not take the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) into account in a uniform fashion. Some polls report the number of seats each party would win purely according to the percentages, as though there were no threshold; others eliminate parties that poll below the threshold and distribute the 120 available Knesset seats only among those who pass it. As a result, parties that poll at or near the threshold can show[1] inconsistent results, bouncing between 0 and the minimum 3 or 4 seats.

Polls may not add up to 120 seats due to rounding or omitted parties that drop out or do not poll consistently.

More information Date, Poll ...
Date Poll Likud Yisrael
Beiteinu
Yesh
Atid
Labor Hatnuah Jewish
Home
Shas UTJ Meretz Hadash
[a]
UAL-
Ta'al[a]
Balad
[a]
Otzma
 [b]
Yachad
[b]
Kulanu
 
2013 election results 31 19 15 6 12 11 7 6 4 4 3 0
Seats in the outgoing Knesset 18 13 19 15 6 12 11 7 6 4 4 3 0 0 0
Final results 30 6 11 24 8 7 6 5 13 0 10
2015
17 Mar Channel 1 exit poll[2] 27 5 11 26 8 7 6 5 12 0 9
17 Mar Channel 2 exit poll[2] 28 5 11 27 8 7 6 5 13 0 10
17 Mar Channel 10 exit poll[2] 27 5 11 27 8 7 7 5 13 0 10
13 Mar Deadline for publishing election polls; under Israeli law, publishing election polls in the last five days before an election is prohibited.[3][4]
13 Mar Channel 2[5] 22 5 12 26 11 7 6 5 13 5 8
13 Mar Channel 10[5] 20 5 12 24 12 7 7 5 13 5 10
13 Mar Reshet Bet[6] 21 6 11 25 11 9 6 5 13 4 9
13 Mar Panels/Jerusalem Post[7] 21 4 13 25 11 7 6 5 13 5 10
13 Mar Teleseker/Walla[8] 23 6 12 25 11 7 7 4 12 4 9
13 Mar Midgam/Yedioth Ahronoth[9] 22 5 12 26 12 7 6 5 13 4 8
13 Mar Teleseker/Channel 1[10] 22 6 12 25 11 8 7 4 12 4 9
12 Mar Panels/Maariv[11] 21 5 13 24 12 7 7 5 13 4 9
12 Mar Smith/Globes[12] 20 6 12 24 12 9 6 5 13 4 9
12 Mar Maagar Mochot/Kol Bramah Radio[13][14] 21 5 13 24 13 7 7 5 12 5 8
12 Mar Dialog/Haaretz[15] 21 4 12 24 11 7 6 6 13 5 11
11 Mar Midgam/Israel Army Radio (Galatz)[16] 21 6 12 24 13 7 7 6 12 4 8
10 Mar Panels/Knesset Channel[17] 21 5 14 24 12 7 6 5 13 4 9
10 Mar Channel 2[18] 21 6 12 25 13 7 6 5 13 4 8
8 Mar Geocartography[19] 26 7 12 21 13 8 8 5 12 0 8
6 Mar Yisrael Hayom[20] 23 6 13 23 12 6 6 5 13 5 9
6 Mar Teleseker/Walla![20] 24 6 12 24 11 8 7 4 12 4 8
6 Mar Panels/Maariv[21] 22 5 13 24 12 7 6 6 13 4 8
5 Mar Channel 1[20] 24 6 13 24 11 8 7 4 12 4 7
4 Mar Dialog/Channel 10[22][23] 23 5 13 23 11 7 6 5 13 4 10
4 Mar Midgam/Channel 2[24][23] 23 6 12 24 12 6 6 6 13 4 8
3 Mar PM Netanyahu delivers a speech about Iran to a joint meeting of U.S. Congress[25]
3 Mar Panels/Knesset Channel[26] 21 5 13 24 12 7 7 6 13 4 8
3 Mar Israel Army Radio (Galatz)[27] 22 7 12 24 12 6 7 6 12 4 8
2 Mar Maagar Mochot/Kol Bramah Radio[28] 23 6 11 24 12 7 7 5 12 5 8
1 Mar Geocartography[29] 24 5 11 22 14 4 8 6 12 5 9
27 Feb Israel Radio[30] 22 6 12 23 12 8 6 5 13 4 9
27 Feb Maariv[31] 23 5 12 25 11 7 7 5 13 4 8
27 Feb Teleseker/Walla![32] 23 6 13 23 13 7 7 4 12 5 7
26 Feb Television debate of the leaders of all parties except Likud, Zionist Union, and UTJ
26 Feb Panels/Maariv-Jerusalem Post[33] 23 5 12 24 12 7 7 5 13 4 8
26 Feb Channel 1[33] 24 6 12 24 12 7 7 4 12 5 7
26 Feb Channel 10[33] 21 6 13 23 12 7 7 5 12 5 9
24 Feb Midgam /Channel 2[34] 22 6 12 24 12 7 7 6 12 5 7
24 Feb Dialog/Haaretz[35] 23 6 12 23 12 7 7 5 12 4 9
24 Feb Panels/Knesset Channel[36] 24 5 12 24 11 7 7 5 13 4 8
22 Feb Teleseker/Nana 10[37] 23 4 11 25 14 5 7 6 12 5 8
22 Feb Geocartography[38] 27 7 11 23 11 4 7 4 12 5 9
20 Feb Smith/Israel Radio[39] 24 5 10 24 13 8 7 5 12 4 8
20 Feb Teleseker/Walla[40] 24 6 12 23 13 7 7 4 12 4 8
19 Feb Panels/Maariv[41] 22 5 12 24 13 7 7 6 12 4 8
19 Feb Teleseker/Channel 1[42] 24 6 11 24 13 7 7 4 12 4 8
18 Feb Channel 10[43] 22 5 12 23 13 7 7 5 12 4 10
17 Feb TRI/Bizportal[44] 23 4 12 24 14 4 8 4 12 5 10
17 Feb Panels/Knesset Channel[45] 23 6 12 24 12 7 7 6 12 4 7
15 Feb Midgam/Channel 2[46] 24 7 11 25 11 6 7 5 12 5 7
15 Feb Geocartography[47] 27 6 8 24 11 7 8 6 12 4 7
13 Feb Smith/Israel Radio[48] 25 5 9 24 13 8 7 5 13 4 7
13 Feb Teleseker/Walla[49] 25 7 9 23 13 7 7 5 12 4 8
13 Feb Panels/Maariv[50] 24 6 12 23 11 6 7 6 13 5 7
12 Feb Smith/Globes[51] 24 6 9 24 13 8 7 5 12 4 8
11 Feb Teleseker/Channel 1[52] 27 7 10 23 11 6 8 5 12 4 7
10 Feb Panels/Knesset Channel[53] 23 5 12 23 12 7 7 5 12 5 9
9 Feb 202 Strategies/Times of Israel[54] 23 7 11 27 11 5 7 4 11 4 10
8 Feb Midgam/Channel 10[55] 23 5 10 23 14 6 6 5 13 5 10
7 Feb Teleseker/Channel 1[56] 27 6 11 23 11 6 8 5 12 4 7
6 Feb Maagar Mochot/NRG[57] 25 4 11 24 14 6 6 6 12 4 8
6 Feb Smith/Israel Radio[58] 26 5 9 25 14 9 8 5 12 0 7
6 Feb Panels/Maariv[59] 26 5 11 22 13 6 8 6 12 4 7
6 Feb Midgam/Yedioth Ahronoth[59][60] 24 6 11 25 12 7 7 5 12 4 7
5 Feb Teleseker/Walla[61] 26 7 10 23 12 7 7 4 12 4 8
3 Feb Panels/Knesset Channel[62] 25 5 11 24 13 6 7 5 12 4 8
1 Feb Dialog/Haaretz[63] 25 6 9 23 14 6 8 5 12 4 8
30 Jan Smith/Israel Radio[64] 26 5 8 26 15 9 7 5 12 0 7
30 Jan Teleseker/Walla[65] 27 6 8 26 12 7 7 4 12 4 7
30 Jan Panels/Maariv[66] 25 5 11 24 14 7 8 6 12 0 0 8
29 Jan Deadline for parties to submit final Knesset candidate lists to the Central Elections Commission
29 Jan Otzma Yehudit and Yachad reach agreement to run a joint list[67]
29 Jan Smith/Globes[68] 24 5 9 25 16 8 8 5 12 0 0 8
29 Jan Teleseker/Channel 1[66] 27 7 8 26 14 7 8 5 12 0 0 6
28 Jan Channel 10[69] 23 4 10 25 16 6 6 5 12 0 4 9
27 Jan Panels/Knesset Channel[70] 23 6 11 25 15 7 7 6 12 0 0 8
26 Jan Channel 2/Midgam[71] 23 7 9 26 15 7 7 6 12 0 0 8
24 Jan Panels[72] 22 7 11 22 13 6 7 6 11 7 8
23 Jan Israel Radio[73] 25 5 9 25 16 9 7 5 12 0 0 7
22 Jan United Arab List, Ta'al, Hadash, Balad and Islamic Movement in Israel reach agreement to run as a united list[74]
22 Jan Teleseker/Channel 1[75] 26 7 8 24 15 9 8 5 11 0 0 7
20 Jan Knesset Channel/NRG[76] 40[c] 5 11 24 40[c] 4 7 6 11 0 6 6
20 Jan Knesset Channel/NRG[76] 23 5 11 24 16 5 7 6 12 0 4 8
16 Jan Panels/Maariv[77] 22 6 11 25 17 6 7 6 11 0 0 9
16 Jan Teleseker/Walla[78] 24 5 8 26 18 7 8 5 11 0 0 8
15 Jan Midgam/Channel 2[79] 23 6 11 25 16 6 6 5 11 0 0 11
15 Jan Channel 10[79] 20 5 10 24 16 6 7 6 12 0 4 10
14 Jan Smith/Globes[80] 24 6 9 25 15 8 7 6 6 5 0 0 9
13 Jan Panels/Knesset Channel[81] 23 7 12 24 16 6 7 6 5 5 0 0 0 9
11 Jan Teleseker[82] 24 7 10 23 15 6 8 6 3 6 2 0 0 10
9 Jan Teleseker/Walla-Maariv[83] 25 6 9 24 15 6 8 6 11 0 0 10
7 Jan Dialog/Haaretz[84] 22 6 12 23 16 5 7 6 5 5 0 0 4 9
6 Jan Teleseker/Channel 1[85] 25 7 9 24 15 6 8 7 11 0 0 8
6 Jan Panels/Knesset Channel[86][87] 24 7 12 23 15 6 8 6 11 0 0 8
2 Jan Teleseker/Walla[88] 26 7 9 23 16 6 7 7 11 0 0 8
2 Jan Panels/Galay Israel Radio[89] 23 7 9 24 16 7 7 7 6 5 0 0 9
2014
31 Dec Channel 10[90] 21 7 9 23 17 5 7 6 11 0 4 10
30 Dec Panels/Knesset Channel[91][92] 23 5 10 24 16 5 8 8 12 0 0 9
29 Dec Midgam/Channel 2[93] 24 8 9 24 16 6 7 5 0 6 5 0 0 10
25 Dec Sarid/Channel 2[94] 22 10 9 25 17 4 7 7 12 0 0 7
24 Dec Jerusalem Post and Maariv/Panels[95] 23 5 11 24 17 4 7 7 5 6 0 0 4 7
23 Dec TRI/Nana 10[96] 20 7 19[d] 21 16 5 8 6 11 0 4 19[d]
23 Dec Channel 10[97] 21 9 10 22 17 4 7 6 5 6 0 0 4 9
22 Dec Panels/Knesset Channel[98] 21 7 11 23 16 5 7 7 5 5 0 0 4 9
21 Dec Arutz 7/Geocartography[99] 27 8 7 25 11 9 7 7 10 0 0 9
19 Dec Smith/Reshet Bet[100] 22 8 8 23 13 7 7 7 10 0 6 9
19 Dec Smith/Globes[101] 23 9 8 23 16 8 7 6 5 6 0 0 9
18 Dec Panels/Maariv[102] 21 8 10 23 16 4 7 7 5 5 0 0 4 10
17 Dec Haaretz/Dialog[103] 21 8 11 21 16 4 8 6 5 5 0 0 3 12
16 Dec Geocartography[104] 23 10 9 21 16 6 7 7 5 5 0 4 0 11
16 Dec Panels/Knesset Channel[105] 22 9 10 22 15 4 7 7 5 5 0 0 4 10
15 Dec Former Shas chairman Eli Yishai forms a new party, Yachad
12 Dec Panels/NRG[106] 20 10 9 24 17 6 8 6 5 5 0 0 10
12 Dec Geocartography[107] 25 9 8 18 11 10 11 6 10 0 12
11 Dec Smith/Walla Poll[108] 18 10 10 21 17 9 8 6 10 0 9
11 Dec Midgam/Channel 2[109] 23 8 8 24 15 9 8 5 11 0 9
11 Dec Panels/Maariv[110] 20 10 9 24 17 6 8 6 5 5 0 0 10
10 Dec Labor (led by Isaac Herzog) and Hatnuah (led by Tzipi Livni) agree to run on a joint list, called Zionist Union[111]
10 Dec Channel 10[112] 20 11 10 22 15 7 7 6 5 5 0 0 13
8 Dec 19th Knesset dissolved, elections called
8 Dec PanelPolitics[113] 21 9 9 23 18 7 8 6 5 5 0 0 9
8 Dec Panels / Knesset Channel[114] 21 10 12 17 0 18 7 8 7 5 5 0 0 10
5 Dec Galay Israel/Maagar Mochot[115] 21 9 11 14 4 18 7 8 8 5 4 0 0 11
5 Dec NRG/Makor Rishon Maagar Mochot[116] 25 13 9 13 4 15 7 7 6 10 0 10
5 Dec New Wave/Yisrael Hayom[117] 22 10 10 12 4 16 8 8 6 5 4 2 0 13
5 Dec Jerusalem Post/Maariv Panels[118] 21 9 11 14 4 18 7 8 8 5 4 0 0 11
4 Dec Smith/Globes[119] 23 11 10 15 2 16 9 7 7 5 3 3 0 10
3 Dec Teleseker/Walla[120] 23 12 11 12 5 17 7 8 5 3 5 2 0 10
2 Dec Dialog/Channel 10[121] 22 12 9 13 4 17 7 8 7 9 0 12
2 Dec Midgam/Channel 2[122] 22 10 9 13 4 17 9 8 7 11 0 10
2 Dec Netanyahu dismisses Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni from the cabinet
30 Nov Dialog/Haaretz[123] 24 11 11 13 4 16 6 8 6 5 4 0 0 12
27 Nov Smith/Globes[124] 23 11 10 15 0 16 10 7 8 5 3 3 0 9
27 Nov Panels/Knesset Channel[125] 23 7 13 14 4 18 7 8 8 4 7 0 7
23 Nov Coalition crisis begins as PM Netanyahu re-launches the Jewish nation-state bill
22 Nov TRI/Bchardei chadrim[126] 27 8 10 12 3 17 10 8 8 11 0 6
20 Nov Panels/Knesset Channel[127] 20 8 13 13 4 19 7 8 8 4 7 0 9
17 Nov Midgam/Channel 10[128] 22 9 14 13 4 17 6 8 7 11 0 9
15 Nov Maagar Mochot/Channel 1[129] 25 15 10 14 3 15 7 7 7 4 3 3 0 6
13 Nov Panels/Knesset Channel[130] 22 8 10 14 4 17 8 8 9 5 4 4 0 7
3 Nov Panels/NRG[131] 21 9 9 15 5 17 8 8 9 5 4 0 0 7
31 Oct Panels/Knesset Channel[132] 24 10 9 14 4 15 7 8 8 5 4 3 0 9
30 Oct Panels/Knesset Channel[133] 21 9 9 15 5 16 7 8 9 5 4 3 0 9
23 Oct Panels/Knesset Channel[134] 22 9 9 15 3 16 7 8 9 5 4 3 0 10
23 Oct Midgam/Channel 10[135] 22 9 12 12 4 17 8 7 9 5 4 0 0 11
2 Oct Panels/Knesset Channel[136] 27 9 10 16 4 18 7 8 9 5 4 3 0
24 Sept Panels/Maariv[137] 26 9 11 17 4 19 7 8 9 4 3 3 0
24 Sept Smith/Globes[138] 25 10 11 14 4 15 9 7 7 5 4 3 0 6
18 Sept Panels/Knesset Channel[139] 25 8 12 16 4 20 8 8 9 4 3 3 0
17 Sept Interior minister Gideon Sa'ar, no 2 of the leading Likud party, announces that he will take a timeout from politics
15 Sept Maagar Mochot/Channel 10[140] 26 14 8 13 5 16 10 6 5 10 0 7
11 Sept Panels/Knesset Channel[141] 29 9 11 15 4 18 7 8 10 3 3 3 0
8 Sept Panels/Knesset Channel[142] 28 10 10 15 4 19 7 8 9 4 3 3 0
5 Sept Maagar Mochot/NRG[143] 28 15 11 14 6 16 9 5 5 3 3 3 0
4 Sept Panels/Knesset Channel[144] 29 9 10 15 4 18 8 8 9 4 3 3 0
1 Sept Panels/Knesset Channel[145] 26 8 10 18 4 19 7 8 10 4 3 3 0
30 Aug Maagar Mochot/Channel 1[146] 26 12 8 14 4 18 10 7 6 7 0 8
29 Aug Geocartography[147] 32 17 9 12 0 18 7 10 6 4 0 5 0
28 Aug Smith/Globes[148] 28 12 9 14 4 14 9 7 7 5 3 3 0 5
28 Aug Dialog/Haaretz[149] 26 11 12 14 4 17 7 8 7 6 4 4 0
28 Aug Panels/Knesset Channel[150] 27 9 12 15 4 19 8 7 9 4 3 3 0
26 Aug Ceasefire in the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict
14 Aug Panels/Knesset Channel[151] 28 9 11 15 4 19 7 7 10 4 3 3 0
7 Aug Midgam/Channel 2[152] 23 12 10 14 6 15 8 7 6 5 7 0 7
31 Jul Panels/Knesset Channel[153] 30 8 10 15 4 18 9 7 10 3 3 3 0
31 Jul Smith/Globes[154] 31 13 11 14 0 13 8 7 7 4 4 3 0 6
9 Jul Dialogue/Haaretz[155] 25 14 13 15 4 16 7 7 10 4 5 0 0
7 Jul Panels/Knesset Channel[156] 21 11 11 19 5 18 6 7 11 4 3 4 0
7 Jul Alliance between Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu dissolved
3 Jul Panels/Knesset Channel[157] 28 13 21 3 18 7 7 12 4 4 3 0
30 May Smith/Globes[158] 34 15 17 0 15 10 8 9 4 8 0
1 May Smith/Globes[159] 35 14 19 0 12 10 8 10 4 4 4 0
15 Mar Panels[160] 36 12 20 4 15 7 7 11 4 0 0 4
10 Mar Electoral threshold raised from 2% to 3.25%
7 Mar Panels/Knesset Channel[161] 30 12 21 4 15 6 8 11 4 3 3 3
28 Feb Dialogue/Haaretz[162] 33 14 16 5 12 10 6 10 4 5 3 0
27 Feb Panels/Knesset Channel[163] 32 13 21 4 13 7 6 10 4 4 3 3
11 Feb Teleseker/Walla[164] 35 15 15 6 14 11 7 6 4 4 3 0
6 Feb Panels/Knesset Channel[165] 32 14 18 4 15 7 6 11 4 4 3 0
3 Feb Panels/Knesset Channel[166] 30 13 19 5 16 9 6 11 4 3 4 0
31 Jan Smith Poll[167] 36 12 17 4 11 11 8 10 11 0
30 Jan Panels/Knesset Channel[168] 30 12 19 4 17 7 7 11 4 3 4 0
24 Jan Times of Israel[169] 46 13 18 5 7 11 6 6 8 0
23 Jan Panels/Knesset Channel[170] 34 14 17 6 12 8 6 10 4 4 3 0
22 Jan GeoCartography[171] 40 9 12 3 11 12 6 10 11 0
21 Jan Channel 1[172] 34 13 16 4 13 10 7 7 11 3
16 Jan Panels/Knesset Channel[173] 34 15 19 5 12 9 7 8 4 4 3 0
9 Jan Panels/Knesset Channel[174] 34 13 17 5 14 9 7 10 4 4 3 0
5 Jan Channel 2/Dahaf[175] 33 14 16 7 11 10 7 7 4 4 3 2
2013
26 Dec Smith poll[176] 36 10 19 3 13 11 8 9 11 0
26 Dec Knesset/Panel Polls[177] 33 13 16 6 13 10 6 11 4 3 3 0
25 Dec Midgam/Walla[178] 32 14 17 7 11 9 6 7 4 4 3 2
28 Nov Globes/Smith[179] 37 11 19 3 12 10 8 9 4 4 3 0
28 Nov Knesset/Panel Polls[180] 35 10 19 4 12 10 6 13 4 4 3 0
Date Poll Likud
 
Yisrael
Beiteinu
Yesh
Atid
Labor
 
Hatnuah
 
Jewish
Home
Shas
 
UTJ
 
Meretz
 
Hadash
 
UAL-
Ta'al
Balad
 
Otzma
 
Yachad
 
Kulanu
 
Close
  1. Hadash-UAL-Ta'al-Balad are running together as the Joint List.
  2. Otzma and Yachad are running together on a joint list.
  3. Likud and Bayit Yehudi run a joint list - scenario
  4. Yesh Atid and Kulanu run a joint list - scenario

Other polls

  • An iStudent poll (January 2015) found that, among college and university students, the Zionist Union would receive 30 mandates; Jewish Home, 26; and Likud, 16.[181]

References

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