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The next Irish general election to elect the 35th Dáil must be held no later than January 2030.
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174 seats in Dáil Éireann 88 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Date of election
The 34th Dáil first met on 18 December 2024. Electoral law provides that the "same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting".[1] It must therefore be dissolved no later than 17 December 2029. The taoiseach may advise the president to dissolve at any time. If a taoiseach has ceased to retain the support of the majority of the Dáil, the president may in their absolute discretion refuse to dissolve the Dáil. To date, no president has refused to dissolve the Dáil.
When the Dáil is dissolved, the Clerk of the Dáil must issue a writ of election to the returning officer for each constituency.[2] The election must take place on a date set by the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day, being Sundays, public holidays and Good Friday) after the writs have been issued.[3][4][5]
Electoral system
Summarize
Perspective
There are currently 174 TDs returned in 43 Dáil constituencies of between three and five seats each. The Electoral Commission will be required to review the size of the Dáil and the arrangement of constituencies after the 2027 census.
Under the system of single transferable vote (STV), each voter may mark any number of the candidates in order of preference. The quota is determined at the first count in each constituency by dividing the number of valid ballots by one more than the number of seats (for example, a quarter of the valid ballots in a three-seat constituency, a fifth of those in a four-seat constituency, and a sixth of those in a five-seat constituency) and then adding one vote. Any candidate reaching or exceeding the quota is elected.[6]
If in the first count fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, if any successful candidates have more votes than the quota, their surplus is distributed to remaining candidates based on the next usable marked preference on the ballot papers. If it still happens that fewer candidates have reached the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is excluded from the count and those ballot papers are transferred to the next usable marked preference. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have reached the quota to fill the available seats, or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution, then the highest place candidate, even if not having quota, is deemed elected.[7]
The Ceann Comhairle (currently Verona Murphy) immediately before the dissolution of the 34th Dáil will automatically be deemed to be elected a member of the 35th Dáil. This is provided for under the Constitution and electoral law.[8]
Opinion polls
| Last date of polling |
Commissioner | Polling firm | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sources | FF | FG | SF | SD | Lab | Aon | II | GP | PBP–S | O/I[nb 1] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2025 | Sunday Independent | Ireland Thinks | 1,206 | 2.9 | [p 1] | 23.8 | 22.3 | 19.3 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 8.8 |
| 29 November 2024 | General election | – | – | – | – | 21.9 | 20.8 | 19.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 15.5 |
- Notes
References
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