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Coalition of the willing (Russo-Ukrainian War)
Group of countries in support of Ukrainian sovereignty From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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The coalition of the willing, as it is known, is a coalition of 31 countries[1][2][3] which have pledged strengthened support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, going further than the support delivered by the Ukraine Defense Contact Group by pledging readiness to also be part of a peacekeeping force deployed on Ukrainian territory, either by providing troops or contributing in other ways. The peacekeeping force is envisaged only to be deployed the moment Ukraine and Russia sign a "comprehensive ceasefire agreement" or "peace deal" to settle the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.[4] The initiative, led by the United Kingdom and France, was announced by British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on 2 March 2025, following the 2025 London Summit on Ukraine under the motto "securing our future".[5]
The stated aim of the initiative is to facilitate the peace negotiation attempts launched and mediated by the United States between Ukraine and Russia in February 2025, by helping to build up strong enough security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure that a potential reached ceasefire or peace deal would be lasting.[6] Besides serving the role as building up a potential peacekeeping force, the coalition have also expressed readiness to increase military support for Ukraine and strengthen economic sanctions against Russia, in the event that the ongoing negotiations for a "comprehensive ceasefire" or "peace deal" would fail. As of 20 March 2025, the exact shape and function of the coalition was described as still being subject to ongoing planning, but moved into an "operational phase".[7][8]
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History
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According to a report from Le Monde, in late November 2024 Paris and London were discussing taking the lead in a coalition to be deployed in Ukraine, on terms not then defined. This was in light of Trump's return to the White House and the prospect of American disengagement from Kyiv.[9] The option of sending "troops" to Ukraine, the debate on which French President Emmanuel Macron had launched at a meeting of Kiyv's allies in Paris in February 2024, was strongly opposed by some European countries, led by Germany. This scenario had not been buried however and was revived during the visit of British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer to France for the November 11 Armistice Day ceremonies.[9] On 1 March 2025, Czech president Petr Pavel made a social media post on X, calling for the formation of a coalition of the willing to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[10]
Building upon these bilateral discussions aiming at creating a hard core of allies in Europe focused on Ukraine and wider European security, Keir Starmer hosted, on 2 March 2025, the 2025 London Summit on Ukraine with Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and sixteen other world leaders, in order to coordinate support for Ukraine. Starmer characterised the meeting as addressing a "once-in-a-generation moment" for European security, stating that the time had come for decisive action rather than continued deliberation, and officially announced Britain and France would lead a European "coalition of the willing" to provide security guarantees to Ukraine and enable peace negotiations with Russia.[5][11] The announcement came two days after a meeting between Zelenskyy and United States President Donald Trump with Vice President JD Vance at the White House on 28 February.[12][13]
On 11 March 2025, the military chiefs of staff of around 30 European and Commonwealth nations, as well as Japan, met in Paris for talks on the creation of an international security force for Ukraine to maintain peace should a ceasefire come into effect.[14][15]
On 15 March, Starmer held a virtual meeting with leaders from European and Commonwealth nations to assemble the "coalition of the willing" to consider options for a "reassurance force" to be deployed within Ukraine to deter renewed Russian attacks against the country should a ceasefire be agreed.[16] The meeting gathered the leaders of 26 countries, including several European countries, Ukraine, Turkey, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, as well as representatives from the European Commission and NATO;[17] and was addressed by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Keir Starmer as well as French president Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.[18]
On 17 March 2025, a spokesman of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom stated the coalition was expected to grow to "more than 30 countries", when military chiefs from the willing countries would be meeting, once again, on 20 March 2025 to discuss the next "operational phase" in protecting Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force – if a deal can be agreed with Russia. The spokesman added: "The contribution capabilities will vary, but this will be a significant force, with a significant number of countries providing troops and a larger group [of countries] contributing in other ways."[19]
On 20 March 2025, the exact shape and function of the coalition was described as still being subject to ongoing planning, but moved into an "operational phase" marked by the gathering of a meeting of military officials from 31 countries. No final decisions were announced after the meeting, but some media reported the participants had contemplated that the coalition could have two different designs depending on whether or not it should be deployed to defend a ceasefire agreement or a peace deal.[1][2]
Five military sub-planning groups (land, sea, air, regeneration and reconstruction) will reconvene the military officials from the 31 countries to continue discussions across three intensive planning days from 24-26 March at the Northwood Headquarters in England.[3][20]
The coalition then met again for a third high-level summit in Paris on 27 March 2025, with an agenda to finalise the plans on how the coalition shall be designed and deployed as a military force to ensure that a potential ceasefire will be lasting for Ukraine.[21][22] The agenda of the summit included drafting and debating a peace treaty proposal written by the coalition, drafting and debating how the coalition can secure a "complete ceasefire" acceptable to Ukraine, bolster aid to Ukraine (with each participating country expected to outline what it is prepared to do), and agreeing on a plan for providing long-term support for the Ukrainian army.[23] The outcome of the meeting was unanimous agreement that:[24]
- No sanctions against Russia could be lifted as part of a temporary ceasefire agreement.
- A potential sanctions relief should instead be conditioned on reaching a peace deal.
- Defense chiefs from Ukraine, France and UK should soon meet in Ukraine to conduct the next stage of the detailed planning for setting up a potential reassurance force (determining the number of soldiers and type of military equipment required to be deployed after a reached peace deal, in order to deter and respond to a subsequently potential renewed Russian aggression).
On 24 April 2025, The Times reported that British officials considered deploying a ground force to defend Ukraine too risky and that the plan was likely to be abandoned, with military trainers deployed to Western Ukraine instead.[25]
On 29 April 2025, The Times reported that Europe "would struggle to put 25,000 troops on the ground in Ukraine". Lithuania's defense minister Dovile Sakaliene reportedly said "Russia has 800,000 [troops]. Let me tell you this, if we can't even raise 64,000 that doesn't look weak — it is weak."[26]
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High-level meetings
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The coalition so far held the following number of high-level meetings, in order to help facilitate the peace negotiation attempts aiming to reach a "comprehensive ceasefire agreement" or "peace deal" to settle the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.
Besides of representatives from the participating nations, the following people also attended the above meetings:[27]
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Aims
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The raison d'être of the initiative was created by the peace negotiation attempts launched and mediated by the United States between Ukraine and Russia in February 2025, as those negotiations initially did not present or offer Ukraine any substantial security guarantees to defend a potentially reached peace deal; while it was acknowledged that in order to ensure that a potential peace would be lasting for Ukraine then some stronger security guarantees than the pre-existing 1994 Budapest Memorandum would be needed, and at the same time became clear that the previously considered proposal to offer Ukraine an immediate membership of NATO as a security guarantee could not be realized. Besides serving the role as building up a potential peacekeeping force, the coalition also expressed readiness to increase military support for Ukraine and strengthen economic sanctions against Russia, in the event that the ongoing negotiations for a "comprehensive ceasefire" or "peace deal" would fail.
Four point-plan
In a press conference that followed the London summit, Starmer outlined four key components of the coalition's approach:[11][12]
- Commitment to maintaining the flow of military aid to Ukraine while increasing economic pressure on Russia through sanctions and other measures.
- Affirming that any lasting peace agreement must ensure the sovereignty and security of Ukraine, with Ukraine being present at all peace negotiations.
- Pledging to enhance Ukraine's defensive military capabilities following any peace deal to deter potential future invasions.
- Development of a "coalition of the willing" consisting of multiple countries prepared to defend the terms of any peace agreement and guarantee Ukraine's security afterward.
List of countries and organisations
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The group consists largely of European and Commonwealth countries.[30] The 33 countries that have publicly been announced as Coalition of the Willing partners include:
Representatives for the following intergovernmental organisations have attended high level Coalition of the Willing meetings:
The People's Republic of China declared willingness to take part in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction on 18 March,[35] and according to the German newspaper Die Welt, China also contemplated joining the Coalition of the willing if being invited on 22 March.[36] The Chinese Foreign Ministry however two days later officially denied reports that China could ever join the coalition, as partaking in a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine spearheaded by European leaders was viewed to conflict with its policy of being a neutral party in Russia's war on Ukraine.[37]
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Commitments
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As part of the announcement, Starmer committed £1.6 billion ($2 billion) in UK export finances to purchase more than 5,000 air defense missiles for Ukraine.[38] The missiles will be manufactured in Belfast in Northern Ireland.[38] This complemented a previously announced £2.2 billion loan for military aid to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets.[39][40]
Starmer emphasized that European countries would need to take primary responsibility for the initiative and "do the heavy lifting" and that the agreement would require US backing and Russian involvement. He indicated that the United Kingdom would back its security commitments with "boots on the ground, and planes in the air", regarding the possibility of UK and EU direct military presence in Ukraine to carry out a peace enforcement operation.[12]
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the "urgent need to re-arm Europe," to support such security guarantees after "a long time of underinvestment". She suggested that the European Union might need to ease its fiscal rules regarding national debt to facilitate increased defense spending by member states.[11]
Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte echoed this sentiment, noting that the meeting demonstrated European countries "stepping up" to ensure Ukraine has the resources necessary to "stay in the fight as long as it has to continue."[12]
Right after the meeting, Finland's president Alexander Stubb said that Norway and Finland are working in support of the drafting of the UK-France-Ukraine peace plan. In addition, he said that the role of the countries that are Russia's neighbours will be different from providing peacekeeping troops.[41]
On 30 April 2025, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal offered to contribute "a company-sized unit (50 to 250 soldiers), including combat troops, instructors, and staff officers" as part of the "coalition of the willing".[42]
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See also
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