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Upcoming state general election for Western Australia From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2025 Western Australian state election is scheduled to be held on 8 March 2025 to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, where all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 37 seats in the Legislative Council will be up for election.
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All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly and all 37 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council 30 Assembly seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Labor government, currently led by Premier Roger Cook, will attempt to win a third consecutive four-year term against the National–Liberal opposition, currently led by Shane Love and Libby Mettam respectively.[3]
Candidates will be elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, 37 candidates are elected across the state, which functions as a single electorate. Amendments made to electoral law have increased the size of the Legislative Council by one member at this election, while abolishing the previous system of six regions of unequal population that each elected six members.
The 2021 state election saw Labor win one of the most comprehensive victories on record at the state or territory level in Australia. It won 53 of the 59 seats, surpassing its own record set four years earlier for the largest government majority and seat tally in Western Australian parliamentary history.[4][5]
The following parties are registered with the Western Australian Electoral Commission:[6]
Candidates are elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, 37 candidates are elected across the state, which functions as a single electorate.
In September 2021, the McGowan Labor Government introduced the "one vote, one value" legislation to change the voting system for the Legislative Council at this election. Under the then-existing voting system for the upper house, which had been in place since 2005, voters were divided into six regions of unequal weight, each of whom were responsible for electing six candidates (36 in total). Three of the regions were based in metropolitan Perth, and three in the regions. This meant that a region like the Mining and Pastoral region had 16% of the average number of electors in the three metropolitan regions.[7][8] The government proposed abolishing the regions and replacing them with what it called a "one vote, one value" system. Instead, 37 members will be elected from a single statewide constituency. This increased the size of the council by one seat. Group voting tickets, which were abolished for the federal Senate in 2016 and are utilised only for the Victorian Legislative Council, would also be abolished.[9] Votes are instead cast under an optional preferential voting system, requiring electors to vote for one or more preferred parties above the dividing line on the ballot paper, or at least 20 candidates below the dividing line.[10] The legislation passed the parliament on 17 November 2021 and received royal assent seven days thereafter.[11][12][13]
The Western Australian Electoral Commission conducted a redistribution of the boundaries of all 59 electoral districts. The final boundaries for the electoral districts were released on 1 December 2023.[14]
The seats of Moore and North West Central were merged to create a new seat, Mid-West.[14] The merger of two rural seats into one was matched by the creation of a new seat in Perth, Oakford, which covers growing suburbs between Armadale and the Kwinana Freeway.[14]
According to psephologist Antony Green, the Coalition will need a combined swing of 23.4% to gain the 24 seats needed to form a majority government.[14]
On the new boundaries, there are 17 seats with margins under 15%, which will be regarded as "key seats". (Green described these as "marginal seats" due to the extent of Labor's landslide in 2021, as normally a margin of over 15% would be considered a safe seat.)
| Current seat | 2021 election | New seat | 2023 redistribution | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Member | Margin | Party | Member | Margin* | ||||
| Burns Beach | Labor | Mark Folkard | 26.9 | Mindarie | Labor | Notional | 23.1 | ||
| Mirrabooka | Labor | Meredith Hammat | 33.7 | Girrawheen | Labor | Notional | 33.4 | ||
| Moore | Nationals | Shane Love | 8.5 | Mid-West | Nationals | Notional | 8.6 | ||
| North-West Central | Nationals | Vince Catania | 1.7 | ||||||
| New seat | Oakford | Labor | Notional | 27.7 | |||||
| Warnbro | Labor | Paul Papalia | 33.4 | Secret Harbour | Labor | Notional | 31.3 | ||
| Willagee | Liberal | Peter Tinley | 27.1 | Bibra Lake | Labor | Notional | 28.2 | ||
| *These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2023 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2021 election results. | |||||||||
| Seat | Party | Margin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | 2021 | 2017 | ||
| Churchlands | ALP | 1.6 | 0.8 | 13.2 |
| Warren-Blackwood | ALP | 2.2 | 1.3 | 13.4 |
| Nedlands | ALP | 3.1 | 2.8 | 8.3 |
| Carine | ALP | 4.0 | 2.5 | 9.0 |
| Vasse | LIB | 4.3 | 4.3 | 14.7 |
| Bateman | ALP | 6.7 | 6.7 | 9.5 |
| Cottesloe | LIB | 7.4 | 7.4 | 13.3 |
| Mid-West | NAT | 8.6 | — | |
| Central Wheatbelt | NAT | 8.6 | 10.7 | 22.6 |
| Geraldton | ALP | 9.3 | 11.7 | 1.3 |
| Scarborough | ALP | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.6 |
| South Perth | ALP | 10.1 | 10.1 | 7.2 |
| Roe | NAT | 12.2 | 11.1 | 14.4 |
| Albany | ALP | 11.0 | 13.7 | 5.1 |
| Dawesville | ALP | 13.1 | 13.9 | 0.7 |
| Darling Range | ALP | 14.1 | 13.5 | 5.8 |
| Kalamunda | ALP | 14.5 | 11.8 | 2.5 |
Elections are scheduled for the second Saturday of March every four years, in line with legislative changes made in 2011.[15]
While the Legislative Assembly has fixed four-year terms, the Governor of Western Australia may still dissolve the Assembly and call an election early on the advice of the Premier.[16]
| Date | Firm | Sample | Primary vote | TPP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | ONP | OTH | ALP | LIB | |||
| September 2024 | Freshwater[41] | 1045 | 39% | 32% | 6% | 11% | — | 12% | 55% | 45% |
| August 2024 | Wolf & Smith[42][43][44] | 878 | 37% | 29% | 3% | 12% | 4% | 15% | 55% | 45% |
| July 2024 | Freshwater[45] | 1000 | 39% | 33% | 5% | 12% | 2% | 9% | 56% | 44% |
| 14 December 2023 | Redbridge[46] | 1200 | 44% | 29% | 4% | 11% | 3% | 9% | 59% | 41% |
| 23 July 2023 | Utting Research[47] | 1000 | 32% | 37% | 6% | 10% | — | 15% | 46% | 54% |
| 31 May 2023 | Utting Research[48] | 800 | 52% | 28% | 5% | 8% | — | 7% | 61% | 39% |
| 13 March 2021 election | N/A | 59.9% | 21.3% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 6.6% | 69.7% | 30.3% | |
| Date | Firm | Sample | Cook | Mettam | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Net | |||
| 23 July 2023 | Utting Research[47] | 1000 | 27% | 37% | 36% | -10% | 31% | 24% | 45% | +7% |
| 31 May 2023 | Utting Research[48] | 800 | 42% | 26% | 32% | +16% | 31% | 33% | 36% | -2% |
| Date | Firm | Sample | McGowan | Mettam | ||||||
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Net | |||
| 11 Mar 2023 | Painted Dog Research[49] | 1052 | 63% | 24% | 13% | +39% | 24% | 18% | 58% | +6% |
| Date | Firm | Sample | McGowan | Honey | ||||||
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Net | |||
| 19–21 Oct 2022 | Painted Dog Research[50] | 637 | 70% | 18% | 12% | +52% | 9% | 31% | 60% | -22% |
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