2025 Virginia gubernatorial election
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The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the governor of Virginia. Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin will be ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits the state's governors from serving consecutive terms. This is the first election where both major party nominees are women.[1]
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Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic nominee,[2] while Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is the Republican nominee. Either women will go on to be Virginia's first female governor, with Earle-Sears becoming the first Black female governor in U.S. history if elected.[3][1] Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears won their respective parties’ nominations unopposed. Whoever wins the general election will be sworn in on January 17, 2026.
This is the only Republican-held governorship up for election in 2025. Democrat Kamala Harris won the state in the 2024 presidential election by 5.8%.[4]
This election may be an indicator of the popularity of Donald Trump's second presidency in the state. With the exception of 2013, Virginia has elected a governor of the opposite party of the sitting president of the United States in every election since 1977.
Background
Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Kamala Harris carrying Virginia by about six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a federal statewide race was in the 2004 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, statewide offices tend to be more competitive as Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections, all of which are up for election in 2025.[5][6][7]
Donald Trump's efforts to shrink the federal workforce is considered to be a potential issue in the election, given that many federal workers live in Northern Virginia.[8] Current predictions suggest the race is either a tossup or slightly leaning towards the Democrats.[9]
Republican primary
Summarize
Perspective
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears was initially viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee for governor.[10] After poor initial polling and growing dissatisfaction with the lieutenant governor in factions of the party, Earle-Sears drew two challengers: former state senator Amanda Chase and former state delegate Dave LaRock. Both challengers positioned themselves as more loyal to President Donald Trump.[11][12] Ultimately, however, Earle-Sears won the nomination unopposed after neither Chase nor LaRock gathered the required signatures to get on the ballot.[13]
Candidates
Nominee
- Winsome Earle-Sears, Lieutenant Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[14]
Failed to qualify
- Amanda Chase, former state senator for SD-11 (2016–2024), candidate for governor in 2021, and candidate for SD-10 2025 special election[15]
- Dave LaRock, former state delegate for HD-33 (2014–2024) and candidate for SD-1 in 2023[16]
Declined
- Jason Miyares, Virginia Attorney General (2022–present) (running for re-election)[17]
- Rob Wittman, U.S. representative from Virginia's 1st congressional district (2007–present) (running for re-election)[18]
Endorsements
Amanda Chase (disqualified)
State senators
- Doug Mastriano, Pennsylvania state senator for SD-33 (2019–present)[19]
Winsome Earle-Sears
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jason Miyares |
Winsome Earle-Sears |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[22] | October 27–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 12% | 48% | 40% |
| Cygnal (R)[23] | March 13–14, 2024 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 16% | 44% | 41% |
| Differentiators Data[24] | February 21–24, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 17% | 48% | 35% |
Hypothetical polling
Democratic primary
Summarize
Perspective
Former U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger won the nomination unopposed after her only challenger, former Richmond mayor Levar Stoney, dropped out in April 2024. Stoney, seeking to avoid a complicated primary, decided to instead run for lieutenant governor. U.S. representative Bobby Scott also publicly considered a bid, but did not file a candidacy.[25]
Candidates
Nominee
- Abigail Spanberger, former U.S. representative from Virginia's 7th congressional district (2019–2025)[26][2]
Withdrawn
- Levar Stoney, former mayor of Richmond (2017–2025) and former Virginia Secretary of the Commonwealth (2014–2016) (running for lieutenant governor)[27]
Declined
- Bobby Scott, U.S. representative from Virginia's 3rd congressional district (1993–present)[28]
Endorsements
Abigail Spanberger
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
- Don Beyer, VA-8 (2015–present)[30]
- Rick Boucher, VA-9 (1983–2011)[31]
- Gerry Connolly, VA-11 (2009–present)[30]
- Lois Frankel, FL-22 (2013–present)[32]
- Elaine Luria, VA-2 (2019–2023)[31]
- Tom Perriello, VA-5 (2009–2011)[33]
- Suhas Subramanyam, VA-10 (2025–present)[34]
- Eugene Vindman, VA-7 (2025–present)[35]
- Jennifer Wexton, VA-10 (2019–2025)[36]
Statewide officials
- Ralph Northam, former governor of Virginia (2018–2022)[36]
- Mary Sue Terry, former Virginia Attorney General (1986–1993)[31]
- Anthony Troy, former Virginia Attorney General (1977–1978)[31]
State cabinet officials
- Viola Baskerville, former Virginia Secretary of Administration (2006–2010)[37]
- Brian Moran, former Virginia Secretary of Public Safety and Homeland Security (2014–2022)[31]
State legislators
- Michael Jones, state delegate from the 77th district (2024–present)[38]
- Monty Mason, former state senator from the 1st district (2016–2024)[37]
- Russet Perry, state senator from the 31st district (2024–present)[37]
- Don Scott, Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates (2024–present) from the 88th district (2020–present)[37]
- 5 other state delegates[37]
Local officials
- Juli Briskman, Loudoun County supervisor (2020–present)[37]
- Jeff McKay, at-large Fairfax County supervisor (2020–present)[37]
Labor unions
Organizations
Bobby Scott (declined)
State legislators
- Louise Lucas, president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate (2020–present) from the 18th district (1992–present)[48] (previously endorsed Stoney)
Levar Stoney (withdrawn)
State officials
- Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia (2014–2018), former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2001–2005) and nominee for governor in 2021[49]
- Molly Joseph Ward, former Virginia Secretary of Natural Resources (2014–2018)[38]
State legislators
- Lamont Bagby, state senator from the 9th district (2023–present)[38]
- Creigh Deeds, state senator from the 11th district (2001–present)[38]
- Michael Jones, state delegate from the 77th district (2024–present)[38]
- Mamie Locke, state senator from the 2nd district (2004–present)[38]
- Louise Lucas, president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate (2020–present) from the 18th district (1992–present)[50]
Local officials
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Abigail Spanberger |
Levar Stoney |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney withdraws from the race | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[51][A] | March 25–26, 2024 | 734 (LV) | — | 44% | 11% | 45% |
| Christopher Newport University[52] | January 11–16, 2024 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 8% | 40% |
Independents
Declared
- Andrew White, businessman[19]
Formed exploratory committee
- Denver Riggleman, former Republican U.S. Representative for Virginia's 5th congressional district (2019–2021)[53]
General election
Summarize
Perspective
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[54] | Tossup | December 6, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[55] | Tilt D (flip) | February 6, 2025 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Winsome Earle-Sears (R) |
Abigail Spanberger (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[56] | February 26–28, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 46% | – | 14% |
| Roanoke College[57] | February 17–20, 2025 | 690 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 24% | 39% | 4%[b] | 33% |
| co/efficient (R)[58][B] | January 18–20, 2025 | 867 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 40% | 5%[c] | 15% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[59] | December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025 | 806 (A) | ± 4.7% | 34% | 44% | 5%[d] | 17% |
| Christopher Newport University[60] | January 6–13, 2025 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 44% | 6%[e] | 12% |
| Emerson College[61][C] | January 6–8, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 4%[b] | 13% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[62] | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Research America Inc.[63][D] | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 39% | 10%[f] | 12% |
| co/efficient (R)[64][E] | September 7–10, 2023 | 834 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 26% | 27% | – | 47% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Winsome Earle-Sears (R) |
Bobby Scott (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[62] | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott
Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger
See also
Notes
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by The Hill
- Poll sponsored by the University of Mary Washington
References
External links
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