2024 Tasmanian state election

Not to be confused with 2024 Tasmanian Legislative Council periodic election.

The 2024 Tasmanian state election was held on 23 March 2024 to elect all 35 members to the House of Assembly.

2024 Tasmanian state election

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← outgoing members elected members →
All 35 seats in the House of Assembly 18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	408,197
Turnout	372,077 (91.2% 1.2)
First party Second party   Leader Jeremy Rockliff Rebecca White Party Liberal Labor Leader since 8 April 2022 7 July 2021 Leader's seat Braddon Lyons Last election 13 seats, 48.7% 9 seats, 28.2% Seats before 11[a] 8[b] Seats won 14 10 Seat change 3 2 Popular vote 127,837 101,113 Percentage 36.7% 29.0% Swing 12.1 0.8   Third party Fourth party   Leader Rosalie Woodruff Jacqui Lambie Party Greens Lambie Network Leader since 13 July 2023 14 May 2015 Leader's seat Franklin Did not contest[c] Last election 2 seats, 12.4% Did not contest Seats before 2 0 Seats won 5 3 Seat change 3 3 Popular vote 48,430 23,260 Percentage 13.9% 6.7% Swing 1.5 6.7
Results of the election
Premier before election Jeremy Rockliff Liberal Elected Premier Jeremy Rockliff Liberal

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size was increased from 25 to 35 seats at this election, under the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022.^[2][3] The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections.

The Liberal government, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, and the Labor opposition, led by Rebecca White, both attempted to win a majority government. The Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network also contested the election, as well as several independents and other minor parties.

The election resulted in a hung parliament, with the Liberal Party remaining the largest party by both vote share and seat total; winning 14 seats. Labor and the Greens won 10 and five seats respectively, with both parties experiencing only a small increase in their respective vote percentages, despite a large swing against the Liberal Party. The majority of the swing went to independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network, who won three seats in its first state election. Both major parties fell short of a majority, with the Liberals and Labor requiring four and eight seats respectively from the crossbench to form government.^[4]

The day after the election, Labor conceded and its leader Rebecca White stated the party would not seek to negotiate with other MPs to form a government, triggering a leadership election.^[5] On 10 April, the Liberal Party and Jacqui Lambie Network announced an agreement had been reached for the latter to provide confidence and supply to the government.^[6] The second Rockliff ministry was sworn in the following day with Independent MP David O'Byrne providing written assurance of confidence and supply, giving the Liberal party the numbers required to form government.^[7][8]

Ultimately, both O'Byrne and fellow independent Kristie Johnston signed confidence and supply agreements with the government, giving it 19 of the 35 votes on the floor of the parliament.^[9] It was the first time that a non-Labor party in Tasmania had won a fourth consecutive term in government since adopting the Liberal banner in 1945.^[10]

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly was to expire four years from the return of the writs for its election, which took place on 1 May 2021.^[11] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.^[12] Nominations must close on a date seven to twenty-one days after the issuance of the writ,^[13] and polling day must be a Saturday between 22 and 30 days after nominations close.^[14]

In May 2023, Premier Jeremy Rockliff ruled out holding an early election, in contrast to his predecessor (Peter Gutwein), who called the last state election a year early.^[15] However on 14 February 2024, Rockliff visited with Governor Barbara Baker to request that an election be called a year early after the Liberal government was forced into a minority, a request which was accepted. It was the second consecutive occasion the Premier of Tasmania called a snap election after Gutwein called the previous state election a year early for a similar reason.

Key dates

Important dates in relation to the election are:^[16]

• Wednesday 21 February: Issue of the writs, close of rolls and opening of candidate nominations
• Thursday 29 February: Candidate nominations close
• Friday 1 March: Announcement of nominations in ballot paper order
• Monday 4 March: Early voting opens
• Friday 15 March: Postal voting applications close
• Wednesday 20 March: The People's Forum (Rockliff v White) broadcast on Sky News Australia
• Saturday 23 March: Polling day
• Tuesday 2 April: Final postal votes are received and preferences begin to be distributed

The TEC estimates the following dates for counting progress:^[17]

• Saturday 6 April: Counting ends
• Wednesday 10 April: Final results declared

Background

See also: 2021 Tasmanian state election

Previous election

Further information: David O'Byrne misconduct allegations

After the snap 2021 election, the Liberal Party successfully won a majority of seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly.^[18] A Liberal MP for Braddon, Adam Brooks, resigned on 14 May 2021 after being charged with firearms offences by Queensland law enforcement. These offences were unauthorised possession of a Category H weapon, unauthorised possession of explosives, and dealing with identity documents. Premier Peter Gutwein said that "I made the decision that under the circumstances of both his mental health and in terms of the fact that he's now facing these new charges, that he won't take his seat in parliament." Greens leader Cassy O'Connor said that "there are now very serious questions to answer about whether or not he was ever considered a legitimate candidate by the Liberal Party", given he resigned "the day the polls [were] declared". Prior claims from women were made before the 2021 election, saying they were catfished by Brooks under the alias "Terry Brooks".^[19] Despite the resignation, the Liberal Party's numbers in the House of Assembly were unchanged, due to the replacing member being a member of the party.

David O'Byrne (left) served as Labor leader for 22 days, resigning over sexual harassment allegations. His predecessor as leader, Rebecca White (right) returned to the leadership role after O'Byrne's resignation.

Rebecca White resigned as Labor leader on 15 May 2021, endorsing shadow treasurer David O'Byrne to replace her.^[20][21] On 15 June 2021, it was announced that O'Byrne had been elected as leader of the Tasmanian Labor Party against opponent Shane Broad, winning 72% of the members' vote and 75% of party delegates.^[22] After allegations of him sexting and kissing a woman without her consent were revealed, David O'Byrne stood aside from his role as leader of the Labor Party for the length of an investigation on 30 June 2021, with Anita Dow acting as leader during the interim.^[23] This was followed by O'Byrne announcing he would resign as leader on 4 July 2021.^[24] On 7 July 2021, Rebecca White was elected as leader after a meeting of the Labor parliamentary caucus.^[25]

Resignation of Peter Gutwein

On 4 April 2022, Premier Peter Gutwein announced he would quit politics, resigning as Premier and as a member for Bass following the appointment of a new Premier.^[26] Jeremy Rockliff, who had been the deputy Liberal leader for 16 years, officially replaced Gutwein as Premier on 8 April 2022, with Bass MP Michael Ferguson as his deputy.^[27]

Restoration of 35 seats in Assembly

On 25 May 2022, Premier Rockliff announced his intention to table a bill in State Parliament to restore the state's House of Assembly to 35 seats before the end of 2022.^[28][29] The bill restored the size of parliament to its original number before the reductions to 25 seats was implemented at the 1998 election. The change will come into effect at this election. The legislation was supported by the Liberals, Labor, Greens and independent Kristie Johnston.^[30] It became law upon its assent by the Governor in December 2022.^[2]

Minority government and a snap election

On 11 May 2023, MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker resigned as members of the Tasmanian Liberal Party and from all parliamentary committees, and served the remainder of their terms as independents on the crossbench. This left the Liberal party in minority government and requiring 7 seats to reach a majority in the next state election.^[31] Tucker and Alexander both agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply.^[1]

On 4 January 2024, Tucker threatened to withdraw his support for the government if it failed to act on his demands for mandatory CCTV in all abattoirs in the state and the cessation of planning for a professional sports training facility at Rosny Parklands and a 25,000-seat stadium at Macquarie Point for an Australian Football League (AFL) team in 2028.^[32] In response Rockliff stated in an interview on 2 February, that he would ask the Governor for a snap election if Tucker and Alexander failed to agree on a new governing deal that required the two MPs to not support proposals or changes to legislation raised by Labor, Green or other independent MPs in parliament without the permission of the government.^[33] On 13 February, Rockliff announced that the Liberal party room had endorsed a snap election due to there being no agreement reached between the government and the independent MPs.^[34] The following day Rockliff visited Governor Barbara Baker at Government House, who accepted his request for an election to be held on 23 March 2024.^[35]

Changes in parliamentary composition

Since the 2021 election, there were a number of changes within the Tasmanian Parliament which affected the balance of power in the chamber.

Seat	Before			Change		After
	Member	Party		Type	Date	Date	Member	Party
Braddon	Adam Brooks		Liberal	Resignation	14 March 2021	3 June 2021	Felix Ellis		Liberal
Franklin	David O'Byrne		Labor	Defection	23 August 2021		David O'Byrne		Independent Labor
Bass	Sarah Courtney		Liberal	Resignation	10 February 2022	25 March 2022	Lara Alexander		Liberal
Bass	Peter Gutwein		Liberal	Resignation	8 April 2022	25 April 2022	Simon Wood		Liberal
Franklin	Jacquie Petrusma		Liberal	Resignation	25 July 2022	16 August 2022	Dean Young		Liberal
Bass	Lara Alexander		Liberal	Defection	11 May 2023		Lara Alexander		Independent
Lyons	John Tucker		Liberal	Defection	11 May 2023		John Tucker		Independent
Clark	Cassy O'Connor		Greens	Resignation	13 July 2023	1 August 2023	Vica Bayley		Greens
Clark	Elise Archer		Liberal	Defection	29 September 2023		Elise Archer		Independent
Clark	Elise Archer		Independent	Resignation	4 October 2023	24 October 2023	Simon Behrakis		Liberal
Franklin	David O'Byrne		Independent Labor	Defection	4 February 2024		David O'Byrne		Independent

Candidates

Main article: Candidates of the 2024 Tasmanian state election

A record 167 candidates nominated.^[36]

Parties

Main article: List of political parties in Australia § Tasmania

Seven parties are registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).^[37] The list of parties registered are:

• Animal Justice
• Labor
• Liberal
• Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
• Greens
• Jacqui Lambie Network
• The Local Network

Status

Parties		Leader(s)	Ideology	Position	Seats			Status
					Last election	Before election	After election
	Liberal	Jeremy Rockliff	Liberalism Liberal conservatism	Centre-right	13 / 25	11 / 25	14 / 35	Minority government
	Labor	Rebecca White	Social democracy	Centre-left	9 / 25	8 / 25	10 / 35	Opposition
	Greens	Rosalie Woodruff	Green politics Progressivism	Left-wing	2 / 25	2 / 25	5 / 35	Crossbench
	Lambie Network	Jacqui Lambie	Populism	Big tent	0 / 25	0 / 25	3 / 35	Crossbench (With confidence and supply)
	Independents	—	—	Various	1 / 25	4 / 25	3 / 35	Crossbench

Campaign

On 29 February 2024, Rockliff stated that if re-elected, his government would remove the protections from 40,000 hectares of protected native forest, allowing them to be logged.^[38]

On 10 March 2024, Rockliff committed A$12 million to support building a "chocolate experience" centre near the Hobart Cadbury factory, which would include the "world's largest chocolate fountain".^[39]

On 11 March 2024, White put forth plans for a shared-equity housing scheme that would allow couples earning under $200,000 and singles earning under $150,000 to partake in a deal with the government, allowing them to buy a property without a deposit, and the government retaining a 20% share of the property.^[40]

On 14 March 2024, social media erupted after a mock website of the Jacqui Lambie Network was discovered online.^[41] The URL (lambienetwork.com) is said by various media outlets to be shockingly similar to Lambie's true website, (lambienetwork.com.au).^[42] The page is owned by the Liberals as is evident by authorisation details on the page.^[43] The page itself is a mock-up of the style of the valid page, instead criticising Senator Lambie and her candidates for a lack of policies in the upcoming election.^[44] Lambie described herself as "absolutely ropable" when she became aware of the page.^[42] When Premier Rockliff was asked about the page, he stated, "We have every right to point out the policy failings of all political parties."^[45] The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has been contacted about the page.^[42]

On 17 March 2024, Rockliff announced an intention to amend the Tasmanian Constitution to add a clause that would legislate that if an MP left the party on which they were elected, they would vacate their seat of parliament.^[46] The proposed amendment has been criticised by various officials, including former-Liberal turned independent MP, John Tucker. Tucker designated the legislation as "Rocky's rule or else." Among other criticisms.^[47] Rockliff describes it as the only way to ensure a stable government continues throughout the term.^[46] Labor candidate for Franklin, Dean Winter, speculates the legislation may be in attempt to prevent candidate Eric Abetz from diverging from the Liberals in event of disagreement on same-sex conversion laws, of which Abetz has countering views to his party.^[48]

On 20 March 2024, during the Sky News Australia Peoples Forum debate between White and Rockliff, White pledged that if a Labor government was elected in this election, they will construct a public elective surgery hospital in New Town, Tasmania. The hospital is proposed to have 24 overnight beds, along with 8 theatres. The budget is expected to be $160m, and would be completed by 2027.^[49]

The Jacqui Lambie Network ran for parliament without any policy agenda.^[50][51][52]

Opinion polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.^[53]

Voting intention

The latest polling by uComms on behalf The Australia Institute indicates that the Liberals will win 13 seats, Labor would win 8, The Greens would win 5, Lambie Network 3, and there would be 6 Independents. This would indicate that neither of the major parties could win a majority, and instead would need to form a minority government with JLN, Greens or Independent MPs. Although both major parties have expressed a dislike in forming coalition,^[54][55] with Labor outright denying a Greens-Labor coalition,^[56] and the Liberals refusing to trade policies.^[57] The Greens are holding out hope for a coalition, stating they prefer Labor over Liberals in terms of forming a minority government.^[58]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling

Date	Firm	Political parties
		Liberal	Labor	Greens	JLN	Ind/Other
4–5 March 2024	uComms[59]	37%	23%	14%	8%	18%
16–28 February 2024	Redbridge[60]	33%	29%	14%	10%	14%
15–21 February 2024	EMRS[61]	39%	26%	12%	9%	15%
21 December 2023 – 4 January 2024	YouGov[62]	31%	27%	15%	20%	7%
30 November 2023	EMRS[63]	39%	29%	12%	—	19%
15–19 August 2023	EMRS[64]	38%	32%	14%	—	15%
15–19 May 2023	EMRS[65]	36%	31%	15%	—	18%
14–19 February 2023	EMRS[66]	42%	30%	13%	—	15%
8–15 November 2022	EMRS[67]	42%	29%	14%	—	16%
8–11 August 2022	EMRS[68]	41%	31%	13%	—	15%
27 May – 2 June 2022	EMRS[69]	39%	30%	13%	—	18%
28 February – 1 March 2022	EMRS[70]	41%	31%	12%	—	16%
28 November – 5 December 2021	EMRS[71]	49%	26%	13%	—	12%
7–9 August 2021	EMRS[72]	49%	28%	13%	—	10%
1 May 2021	2021 election	48.72%	28.20%	12.38%	—	10.71%

Preferred Premier

Preferred Premier polling

Date	Firm	Party leaders
		Rockliff	White	Unsure
15–21 August 2023	EMRS[64]	42%	39%	18%
15–19 May 2023	EMRS[65]	38%	40%	18%
14–19 February 2023	EMRS[66]	44%	36%	17%
8–15 November 2022	EMRS[67]	46%	34%	18%
8–11 August 2022	EMRS	47%	35%	16%
27 May – 2 June 2022	EMRS	47%	34%	18%
Jeremy Rockliff replaces Peter Gutwein as Premier and Liberal leader
Date	Firm	Party leaders
		Gutwein	White	Unsure
28 February – 1 March 2022	EMRS	52%	33%	14%
28 November – 5 December 2021	EMRS	59%	29%	12%
7–9 August 2021	EMRS	59%	28%	11%

Results

Main article: Results of the 2024 Tasmanian state election

Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Liberal	127,837	36.67	12.05	14	1
	Labor	101,113	29.00	0.80	10	1
	Greens	48,430	13.89	1.51	5	3
	Lambie Network	23,260	6.67	6.67	3	3
	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	8,126	2.33	0.71	0
	Animal Justice	5,283	1.52	0.11	0
	Local Network	1,028	0.29	0.29	0
	Independents	33,535	9.62	3.40	3	2
Total		348,612	100.00	–	35	10
Valid votes		348,612	93.69
Invalid/blank votes		23,465	6.31	1.18
Total votes		372,077	100.00	–
Registered voters/turnout		408,197	91.15	1.24
Source: TEC, ABC

Primary vote percentages by division

	Bass	Braddon	Clark	Franklin	Lyons
Liberal Party	38.0%	45.6%	27.1%	34.0%	37.6%
Labor Party	29.8%	24.7%	30.5%	27.3%	32.8%
Greens	12.0%	6.6%	20.9%	19.8%	10.9%
Lambie	8.1%	11.4%	N/A	4.9%	8.3%
Other	12.0%	11.7%	21.6%	14.0%	10.4%

Distribution of seats

Electorate Seats won Bass                                                  Braddon                                                  Clark                                                  Franklin                                                  Lyons

Liberal   Labor   Greens   Lambie   Independent

Aftermath

Further information: 2024 Tasmanian government formation and Second Rockliff ministry

The day after the election, Labor conceded and its leader Rebecca White stated the party was not in a position to form a minority government, causing a leadership election to be held under the party's constitution.^[5] Rockliff reportedly began discussions with elected independents and Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) candidates to form a Liberal minority government.^[5] On 10 April, the Liberal Party and Jacqui Lambie Network announced an agreement had been reached for the latter to provide confidence and supply to the government.^[6] The second Rockliff ministry was sworn in by Governor Barbara Baker the following day,^[7] as Rockliff revealed independent MP David O'Byrne had provided a written assurance of confidence and supply votes in parliament, thereby enabling the re-elected government to take office.^[8] Letters of confidence and supply assurances were signed by O'Byrne and another independent MP, Kristie Johnston, and were released to the public on 24 April 2024.^[9] This gave the Liberal government 19 votes out of 35 in parliament to govern.

The JLN-Liberal arrangement lasted in its original form for only four months, as two of the JLN MPs, Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick, were expelled from the party by party leader Jacqui Lambie, who alleged the two MPs no longer represented the "values of accountability, transparency and integrity".^[73] Both Pentland and Beswick stated they intended to remain in parliament as independents and later signed a new confidence and supply agreement with the government.^[74][75]

On 16 September 2024, the sole remaining member of the JLN in parliament, Andrew Jenner, confirmed he was not signing a confidence and supply deal with the Liberal government after the last one fell through.^[76]

Notes

1. In May 2023 Liberal MHAs Lara Alexander (Bass) and John Tucker (Lyons) resigned from the party and left the government to sit on the crossbench as independents. They agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply.^[1]
2. Labor Party leader David O'Byrne resigned his position two months after the 2021 state election following misconduct allegations. A month after the allegations were made O'Byrne sat on the crossbench as an Independent Labor MHA.
3. Jacqui Lambie sits in the Australian Senate as a senator from Tasmania.

References

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2. Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022 (TAS)
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