2024 New Brunswick general election

Canadian provincial election From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 New Brunswick general election

The 2024 New Brunswick general election was held on October 21, 2024, where 49 members were elected to the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick. It was formally called upon the dissolution of the 60th New Brunswick Legislature on September 19, 2024.[2]

Quick Facts 49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 25 seats needed for a majority, Turnout ...
2024 New Brunswick general election

 2020 October 21, 2024 Next 

49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
25 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout66.1% ( 0.04 pp)[1]
  First party Second party Third party
  Thumb Thumb Thumb
Leader Susan Holt Blaine Higgs David Coon
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative Green
Leader since August 6, 2022 October 22, 2016 September 22, 2012
Leader's seat Fredericton South-Silverwood[a] Quispamsis
(lost re-election)
Fredericton-Lincoln[b]
Last election 17 seats, 34.35% 27 seats, 39.34% 3 seats, 15.24%
Seats before 16 25 3
Seats won 31 16 2
Seat change 15 9 1
Popular vote 180,803 131,329 51,558
Percentage 48.24% 35.04% 13.76%
Swing 13.89% 4.30% 1.48%

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Premier before election

Blaine Higgs
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Susan Holt
Liberal

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The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick (PC) government, led by Premier Blaine Higgs since 2018, sought re-election to a third consecutive term. The party was defeated by the New Brunswick Liberal Association, led by Susan Holt, with them set to form a majority government in a landslide victory. Higgs was defeated in his own riding of Quispamsis, the first time since 1987 that a sitting New Brunswick Premier lost in their own riding. Upon taking office, Holt became the first woman premier of New Brunswick.

2023 redistribution

Summarize
Perspective

The Electoral Boundaries and Representation Commission is obliged after every second general election to investigate and report whether boundary adjustments are required to the Province's constituencies.[3] It was required to ensure that revised constituencies have populations that fall within 25% of the determined electoral quotient, and it made its report with recommendations in March 2023.[4]

Objections were raised as to the alignments proposed for Shediac-Cap-Acadie and Tantramar, specifically with respect to the eastern portion of Cap-Acadie (a francophone-majority town) having been placed in the latter,[5] and special legislation was passed to allow a variance in the proposed boundaries.[6]

The following changes took effect:

Of the 49 constituencies, 17 have Francophone majorities:[4]

Background

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Perspective

The Legislative Assembly Act was amended in 2017 to provide that an election should be held every four years on the third Monday in October;[7] the election still must be held on a Monday if called sooner.[8]

Minor party deregistrations and registrations

On October 31, 2020, after failing to nominate ten candidates in the 2020 election, the KISS NB was deregistered.[9]

On March 30, 2022, Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy announced their departures from the People's Alliance to join the Progressive Conservatives explaining they believed they could better represent their ridings from within government.[10][11] Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs reiterated the party's support for official bilingualism when questioned about the People's Alliance's previous stances on the issue which were criticized by the Acadian Society of New Brunswick.[11] The Peoples Alliance was deregistered on March 31, 2022, but re-registered by interim leader Rick DeSaulniers in May 2022.[12][13][14]

The Libertarian Party of New Brunswick was registered in July 2024, and put forward candidates in 18 ridings.[15][16]

In September 2024, the Social Justice Party of New Brunswick and the Consensus NB Party were created, however both failed to nominate at least 10 candidates as required to maintain party status and each will be deregistered following the 2024 election.[17][18]

Current standings

More information Affiliation, Assembly members ...
Standings in the 60th Legislature of New Brunswick
Affiliation Assembly members
2020 election results Current
Progressive Conservative 27 25
Liberal 17 16
Green 3 3
People's Alliance 2 0
Independent 0 1
Vacant 4
Total members 49 45
Total seats 49 49
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Summary of seat changes

More information Changes in seats held (2020–present), Seat ...
Changes in seats held (2020–present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin August 17, 2021 Jake Stewart  PC Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election (Stewart was elected). June 20, 2022 Mike Dawson  PC
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Lisa Harris  Liberal Réjean Savoie  PC
Fredericton-Grand Lake March 30, 2022 Kris Austin  People's Allnc. Changed affiliation, resigning as People's Alliance leader and announcing his intention to deregister the party.  PC
Miramichi Michelle Conroy  People's Allnc. Changed affiliation.  PC
Fredericton West-Hanwell October 16, 2022 Dominic Cardy  PC Expelled from the PC caucus having resigned his ministerial role.  Independent
Dieppe October 21, 2022 Roger Melanson  Liberal Resigned to head to the private sector. April 24, 2023 Richard Losier  Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur November 27, 2022 Daniel Guitard  Liberal Resigned to run for Mayor of Belle-Baie in 2022 elections; elected. Marco LeBlanc  Liberal
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore November 27, 2022 Denis Landry  Liberal Resigned to run for Mayor of Hautes-Terres in 2022 elections; elected. Susan Holt  Liberal
Saint John Harbour February 8, 2024[19] Arlene Dunn  PC Resigned.
Portland-Simonds April 30, 2024[20] Trevor Holder  PC Resigned.
Hampton April 30, 2024[20] Gary Crossman  PC Resigned.
Albert June 20, 2024[21][22] Mike Holland  PC Resigned (after final legislative session).
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Issues

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Perspective

Education

New Brunswick has been experiencing major education shortcomings during the 2020s, with the province experiencing massive shortages in teachers and school psychologists,[23][24] along with school bus drivers in some areas. Schools throughout the province have also reported exceptionally low child literacy rates, with a 2021–22 report concluding that literacy standards were not met by around 40% of the province's fourth grade students, the lowest it has been in 18 years.[25] Kelly Lamrock, the New Brunswick Child and Youth advocate, further reported that child literacy rates had declined by 29% over the past decade.[26] After being released in November 2023, the 2022–23 report for fourth grade student literacy rates showed further decline, with 43.4% scoring "below appropriate achievement" after being assessed for English reading.[27]

In late 2023, the New Brunswick Teachers' Association (NBTA) called for the provincial government to address concerns raised from an internal survey of its members. Among the concerns noted were "understaffed classrooms and overcrowded buildings, with uncertified community members, people without a bachelor of education, sometimes taking the place of actual teachers because of shortages." Many of the 2,916 survey participants reported teaching in overcrowded and poorly ventilated schools, with half also experiencing verbal and physical abuse. Those who called for these issues to be addressed included Liberal leader Susan Holt as well as Kevin Arseneau, a Green MLA for Kent North.[28]

In May 2024, the NBTA projected over 1,200 anglophone teachers that will be eligible for retirement within the next five years, with Peter Lagacy, the NBTA president, adding that this is "an alarming number when we look at how many we have coming into the system."[29]

Staff shortages

New Brunswick's public school system has been notably experiencing shortages in teachers,[30][31] school psychologists and, in certain areas, bus drivers.[32]

While proposing changes for Policy 713, Higgs proposed for "extra counsellors, extra support." According to figures from November 2023, however, the number of school psychologists dropped; out of a total of 28 "full-time equivalent" school psychologist positions filled throughout the province, only six served the province's English school system of approximately 73,000 students.[23]

School busing shortcomings

An audit which took place between January and February in 2024 concluded that the provincial Department of Education "lacks oversight on school bus safety and driver requirements."[33] Using a sample size of 65 bus drivers out of a total of around 1,300, the audit reported that 46% of New Brunswick's school bus drivers had ineligible licensing requirements. Additionally, 20% were hired without checking for criminal records, and further percentages of bus drivers had no evidence of bus training (37%) and first aid training (42%). The audit also conducted vehicle inspections on a number of buses, with 45% having deficiencies.[34][35] Francine Landry, the Liberal MLA for Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston, criticized the provincial government led by Higgs for "touting their record on keeping children safe, while failing to fulfil the most basic requirements for doing so." Education Minister Bill Hogan responded, saying that "clearly there's some work to be done in that area in making sure that they're inspected on time."[33]

Policy 713

Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance. The revision has led to the government becoming involved in legal disputes with its education departments as well as with the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, who filed a lawsuit against the government, citing violations against the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and New Brunswick's human rights and education acts. The issue has been the subject of widespread coverage and dispute, and has been covered by major news publications including The Washington Post,[36] The New York Times,[37] and BBC.[38]

Lindsay Jones of The Globe And Mail called the Policy 713 dispute as having "emerged as perhaps the key issue in the next election."[39]

Healthcare

Healthcare in New Brunswick has been described as being in a "state of chaos,"[40] with hospitals throughout the province experiencing an overcapacity of patients,[41] excessively long waiting times,[42] and health workers experiencing burnout.[43] During a February 2023 press conference, Blaine Higgs stated that "if every doctor in our province took two or three more patients a week, we wouldn't have a backlog."[44] In an Angus Reid survey that recorded Canadians' satisfaction with how their province is dealing with healthcare, New Brunswick recorded the largest drop in satisfaction rate compared to rates surveyed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a rate of just 11 percent, compared to a previous rate of 42 percent.[45]

Following overcrowding at the Dr. Everett Chalmers Regional Hospital emergency room at the start of 2024, Green leader David Coon called for "immediate changes" as well as for the government to increase funding.[46]

According to Rob McKee, the Liberal health critic, 160,000 people in New Brunswick, or roughly 20 percent of the population, do not have a family doctor or nurse practitioner as of late May 2024. The numbers were disputed by Bruce Fitch, the Minister of Health.[47]

During the final session of the 60th legislature held on June 7, 2024, Higgs and Holt clashed during question period; one of the topics included the funding spent on travel nurses, amounting to nearly CA$174 million, which was revealed to have been "partly mismanaged" according to a report by the auditor general.[48]

Both the Liberal and Green parties made promises to re-launch research efforts into the province's mysterious neurological disease upon forming majority government.[49]

Housing

Since 2019, housing prices have nearly doubled in New Brunswick. In home prices, the province marked the highest percentage of increases compared to the rest of the Canadian provinces and territories.[50] New Brunswick has also seen major increases in homelessness within its communities and cities, with Fredericton, Saint John, and Moncton collectively experiencing an 80% increase in homelessness between 2021 and 2023.[51] Housing critics have claimed that "landlords have almost all the power" in the province.[52]

Both the Liberal and Green parties have attempted to implement rent regulation in the province,[53] with the right to housing being highlighted by the Green Party legislative members, whether to consider it a human right or to push for rural area housing rights. During a legislative session on November 20, 2020, held shortly after the opening of the 60th legislature, Green Party leader David Coon introduced Bill 18, which would have made changes to the Residential Tenancies Act, including a cap on annual rent increases as well as ensuring that "rent can only be raised once a year for a tenant and not in their first year." At the time, New Brunswick was the only province that allowed for landlords to make multiple increases on rent each year. Coon added that "we need to ensure that tenants who cannot afford large increases in their rents are not left out in the cold without housing this winter."[52] After six months of debate, the bill was ultimately rejected after all Progressive Conservative and People's Alliance MLAs unanimously voted against it. The New Brunswick Coalition for Tenants Rights, who had criticized the proposed bill for "not going far enough," expressed disappointment in the government decision.[54]

In March 2022, the government introduced a temporary 3.8% rent cap,[55] set to expire at the end of the year.[56] Opposition parties soon afterwards called for an extension on this cap, while it was opposed by the government.[57] Coon, saying that the government has not "gone far enough to eliminate loopholes that allow landlords to get around the government's temporary cap on rent increases," also made proposals to the provincial bill to address loopholes in this legislation, but faced rejection from the majority Progressive Conservatives.[58]

In December 2023, St. Stephen mayor Allan MacEachern declared a state of emergency due to an increase in homelessness after the recent death of a homeless person in the municipality; the declaration also accused the provincial government of failing to offer housing and social services.[59][60] Public Safety Minister Kris Austin terminated the declaration soon afterwards,[61] likening it to car accidents by saying that "people die all the time in car accidents, and we do not declare state of emergencies for that."[62] Austin also blamed "leftist agendas that are degrading our society" as well as the federal government for the issue.[63]

In June 2024, the provincial government quietly made changes to its renting policies, allowing for landlords to make annual rent increases for up to 4.7% for the next year starting in July 2024; this increase exceeds the current inflation rate.[64][65] Coon criticized this change, calling out Higgs as "caving to the lobbying of large corporate property owners."[66]

Out-of-province activities

New Brunswick, unlike most provinces, allows political party funding from non-residents. In January 2024, Liberal and Green leaders Holt and Coon both made a promise to forbid New Brunswick political party donations from out-of-province sources in response to Higgs going to Alberta and British Columbia on a fundraising trip for his party.[67]

In August 2024, right-leaning lobbyist group Campaign Life Coalition mailed flyers to 160,000 homes in New Brunswick,[68] making the accusation that schools in the province are "pushing transgenderism".[69] Both Liberal and Green leaders condemned the flyers, with Higgs additionally having been urged to do so as well.[68]

Campaign

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Perspective

Candidates by Party

More information Party, Leader ...
Party Leader[70] Candidates
Progressive Conservative Blaine Higgs 49
Liberal Susan Holt 49
Green David Coon 46
New Democratic Alex White 23
Libertarian Keith Tays 18
People's Alliance Rick DeSaulniers 13
Independent 4
Consensus NB Len O'Brien 3
Social Justice Tanya Roberts 2
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More information Number of nominatedcandidates to appear on the ballot, Constituencies ...
Candidate contests[71]
Number of nominated
candidates to appear
on the ballot
ConstituenciesParty
PC Lib Grn NDP Ltn PANB Ind CNB SJP Totals
22224
311111110133
418181818863172
5111111118642255
666666551136
7111111117
Total49494946231813432207
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Progressive Conservative

In November 2023, the Progressive Conservatives hired Steve Outhouse as its campaign manager. Outhouse had previously served as chief of staff and as director of communications for federal Conservative cabinet ministers, and served as campaign manager for the re-election of the United Conservative Party in the 2023 Alberta general election.[72] In April 2024, Outhouse was also hired as principal secretary to Premier Blaine Higgs, which is a taxpayer-funded position that will earn up to CA$124,656 during the six-month contract.[73] The contract drew criticism from Green leader David Coon, who estimated the position's pay band as being at a much lower rate of CA$150,000–175,000 annually,[74] as well as from Liberal MLA and former Progressive Conservative Robert Gauvin, who stated that it was "unfair that New Brunswick taxpayers are paying him for that," believing that "this contract should be cut and the money should be reimbursed."[73] Higgs defended the value of the contract by reading extensively from Outhouse's resumé and stating that he comes with, "an extensive degree of credentials and relevant experience to what we experience as a government."[75]

Jacques Poitras of CBC News described the Progressive Conservative campaign under Outhouse's contract as adopting "a more pointed, aggressive style of advertising against the opposition Liberals." The campaign particularly attacked Susan Holt while "trying to link her to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's carbon tax and other policies." Jeff Carr, a Progressive Conservative MLA who previously announced that he would not be seeking candidacy in the election, criticized a post his party made targeting a 2014 quote by Holt regarding "closing some schools in the province." Carr stated that the post omitted important context "for political gain (misleading the electorate)," calling it "disappointing."[73]

The Progressive Conservative party launched their re-election campaign at a Quispamsis church on September 19, 2024.[76] Blaine Higgs received critical attention for telling a joke about a deceased Liberal voter at the end of his campaign launch speech,[77] with Susan Holt describing it as "a complete lack of judgment on the premier's part".[78] David Coon additionally criticized the joke, stating that "to call it a joke would suggest it was funny, and there was nothing funny about it".[79]

The Progressive Conservative campaign has consisted of promoting its promise to lower the harmonized sales tax (HST) from 15% to 13%,[80] and highlighting the fiscal surpluses under their government. The campaign has also promoted fears of an elected Liberal government taking the province "back into the red",[81] referring to the consecutive deficits under the previous Liberal government, during which Susan Holt served as senior economic development advisor to then-Premier Brian Gallant.[82]

The Progressive Conservatives released their campaign platform on October 12, 2024.[83]

Liberal

Throughout the months leading up to the election, Liberal leader Susan Holt started distancing herself from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amongst attacks from the Progressive Conservatives attempting to link them together throughout the decline in popularity for Trudeau. Holt stated that "the New Brunswick Liberal Party is a separate entity from the federal party the prime minister leads."[84]

When asked by Brunswick News about her summer campaign plans, Holt shared plans of touring around the province and stopping by each riding, with 207 "touchpoints" with "festivals and celebrations," while also focusing on her home riding.[8]

The Liberal party officially launched their election campaign in Fredericton on September 8, 2024.[85]

The Liberals released their campaign platform on October 3, 2024.[86] The platform's costing table was flagged by media and criticized by the Progressive Conservatives for a seeming mistake that resulted in counting a portion of HST revenue twice.[87][88] The error suggests that instead of a net surplus of $549 million over five years, the platform's implementation would result in a net deficit of over $1 billion.[89]

Greens

In late 2023, Green Party leader David Coon stated that his goal was to "elect as many Green MLAs as possible." Additionally, Coon proposed that he would be open to the idea of collaborating with the Liberals to prevent Higgs from remaining in power if an early election resulted in the PCs losing their majority. Coon's negotiation proposal reflected his stance from the 2018 election when he was willing to talk with both parties, prior to the Progressive Conservatives securing the backing from the People's Alliance.[90]

Coon, like Holt, was also asked by Brunswick News about his campaign plans for the summer; he shared that he, along with his deputies, Kevin Arseneau and Megan Mitton, are going to be "fanning out across the province, launching new candidates' campaigns that haven't been launched yet, and attending festivals and events, and generally holding our own events as well." Coon said that the largest issues that all Green candidates have noticeably heard are healthcare, along with "affordability and affordable housing," adding that "People want to see change. They want to see change that's for the better, not change back." Coon also highlighted a lack in rural development in the province, mentioning that "there's plenty of talk about communities losing services" in rural areas.[8]

The Green Party's fall campaign officially launched on September 18, 2024.[91] During his campaign launch speech, Coon confirmed that he will have a "wish list" ready to bring into negotiations with other parties, in anticipation of the Green Party not forming government and no other party getting a majority of seats. Higgs has compared the Greens potentially providing confidence to a Liberal government to the "coalition" between the Liberal Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party at the federal level, despite the Liberal-NDP arrangement being a confidence and supply agreement and not a coalition as it's usually defined.[92]

Debates

On May 28, 2024, a CUPE Local 1292-sponsored leaders' debate covering the topic of healthcare was aired on Rogers TV;[93] Blaine Higgs, Susan Holt and David Coon were invited to participate, though Higgs declined to attend.[94]

On September 25, 2024, a leaders' debate between Higgs, Holt, and Coon took place at the Capitol Theatre in Moncton. The debate was aired on CBC Television and was moderated by Clare MacKenzie and Jacques Poitras.[95]

On October 9, 2024, a leaders' debate between Holt, Coon, and Alex White took place at the Tom Morrison Theatre at Fredericton High School. Higgs and Rick DeSaulniers were invited but declined to attend. The debate was aired on Rogers TV and moderated by Andrew Holland.[96][97]

On October 11, 2024, a Forum "Women Count!" with the party leaders was organized by the NB Coalition for Equity Pay. Susan Holt, David Coon and Alex White were present. Higgs declined the invitation. They discussed women issues in the Province. The Forum was broadcast on Rogers TV.

On October 16, 2024, a leaders' roundtable was held at St. Thomas University in Fredericton, hosted by CTV Atlantic.[98]

Opinion polls

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More information Polling Firm, Last Date of Polling ...
Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link PC Liberal Green PA NDP Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Election 2024 October 21, 2024 HTML 35.04 48.24 13.76 0.87 1.30 13.20
Forum Research October 20, 2024 [p 1] 37.1 45.7 10.7 2.0 2.7 ±3.0 pp 2,428 IVR 8.6
Mainstreet Research October 19, 2024 [p 2] 38 48 10 1 - ±3.6 pp 724 Smart IVR 10
Mainstreet Research October 3, 2024 [p 3] 37 44 14 2 - ±3.3 pp 906 Smart IVR 7
Mainstreet Research September 17, 2024 [p 4] 39 41 13 4 - ±4.0 pp 609 Smart IVR 2
Narrative Research August 17, 2024 [p 5] 33 44 17 1 4 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 11
Nanos Research July 31, 2024 [p 6] 36 36 14 5 10 ±4.7 pp 447 telephone/online 0
Narrative Research May 30, 2024 [p 7] 34 37 13 1 13 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 3
Narrative Research February 22, 2024 [p 8] 34 40 15 2 8 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 6
Narrative Research November 27, 2023 [p 9] 35 41 10 2 13 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 6
Narrative Research August 21, 2023 [p 10] 36 38 16 1 8 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 2
Narrative Research May 17, 2023 [p 11] 34 34 19 2 10 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 0
Narrative Research February 25, 2023 [p 12] 37 35 17 2 9 ±4.6 pp 450 telephone 2
Leger December 23, 2022 [p 13] 22 40 15 9 12 ±4.4 pp 500 online 18
Narrative Research November 27, 2022 [p 14] 30 39 18 2 10 ±4.0 pp 611 telephone 9
Narrative Research August 24, 2022 [p 15] 30 41 14 5 11 ±4.2 pp 525 telephone 11
Susan Holt is elected leader of the Liberal Party (August 6, 2022)
Angus Reid June 13, 2022 [p 16] 31 36 14 5 13 ±6.0 pp 247 online 5
Narrative Research May 19, 2022 [p 17] 34 34 17 4 9 ±4.0 pp 607 telephone 0
Nanos Research April 11, 2022 [p 18] 36.6 38.8 14.2 1.2 8.6 ±4.8 pp 423 online/telephone 2.2
Both People's Alliance MLAs join the Progressive Conservatives, with Kris Austin announcing intention to de-register the party (March 30, 2022)
Angus Reid March 15, 2022 [p 19] 31 32 15 13 9 ±6.0 pp 251 online 1
Narrative Research February 27, 2022 [p 20] 34 31 16 5 11 ±4.2 pp 545 telephone 3
Angus Reid January 10, 2022 [p 21] 26 37 16 10 8 ±7.0 pp 216 online 11
MQO Research December 14, 2021 [p 22] 29 36 16 5 11 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone (rolling) 7
Narrative Research November 24, 2021 [p 23] 28 38 14 5 13 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone 10
Stratcom November 6, 2021 [p 24] 20.5 39.8 17.9 12.0 - ±2.8 pp 1,184 IVR 19.3
Angus Reid October 3, 2021 [p 25] 31 31 12 12 13 ±2.0 pp 265 online 0
Narrative Research August 17, 2021 [p 26] 33 29 22 5 11 ±2.0 pp 604 telephone 4
Angus Reid June 7, 2021 [p 27] 36 31 17 12 4 ±2.0 pp 248 online 5
Narrative Research May 31, 2021 [p 28] 39 28 18 6 8 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone (rolling) 11
MQO Research March 18, 2021 [p 29] 38 31 17 5 6 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone (rolling) 7
Narrative Research February 17, 2021 [p 30] 35 32 20 6 6 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone (rolling) 3
Narrative Research November 22, 2020 [p 31] 41 28 20 4 6 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone (rolling) 13
Kevin Vickers resigns as Liberal Party leader; MLA for Dieppe Roger Melanson becomes interim leader (September 14, 2020)
Election 2020 September 14, 2020 HTML 39.34 34.35 15.24 9.19 1.66 4.99
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Candidates

  1. At dissolution
  2. Previously MLA for Grand Lake-Gagetown (20102014)
  3. Originally elected under the PC banner
Abbreviations
Legend

NOTE: Candidates' names are as registered with Elections New Brunswick[107]
bold denotes party leader
† denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
# denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

Northern

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PCLiberalGreenNDPLibertarian
Restigouche West Diane Cyr
1,733
Gilles LePage
3,993
Myriam Cormier
380
Ronald Geraghty
116
Gilles LePage
Restigouche East Normand Pelletier
2,271
Guy H. Arseneault
3,590
Gilles Cormier
389
Daisy Petersen
501
Guy Arseneault
Campbellton-Dalhousie
Belle-Baie-Belledune Louis Robichaud
1,254
Marco LeBlanc
5,053
Rachel Boudreau
1,411
Tyler (Ty) Boulay
293
Marco LeBlanc
Restigouche-Chaleur
Bathurst Kim Chamberlain
2,029
René Legacy
3,357
Robert Kryszko
325
Jeff Frenette
212
René Legacy
Bathurst West-Beresford
Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit Jason Purdy
1,454
Luc Robichaud
4,675
Susan Holt
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore
Caraquet Jean Paul Lanteigne
719
Isabelle Thériault
6,002
Isabelle Thériault
Shippagan-Les-Îles François Robichaud
530
Eric Mallet
5,021
Wilfred Roussel
1,111
Eric Mallet
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Tracadie Gertrude McLaughlin
537
Keith Chiasson
5,030
Serge Brideau
3,829
Keith Chiasson
Tracadie-Sheila
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Miramichi and Kent

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive ConservativeLiberalGreenPANBOther
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Rejean Savoie
3,146
Sam Johnston
4,219
Wayne Hitchcock
711
Réjean Savoie
Miramichi East Michelle Conroy
3,633
Veronique Arsenault
2,921
Josh Shaddick
355
Tom L'Huillier
236
Michelle Conroy
Miramichi
Miramichi West Mike Dawson
3,814
Mark Hambrook
2,254
Genevieve MacRae
273
Rhonda L'Huillier
229
Richard Sutherland (Ind.)
112
Mike Dawson
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin
Kent North Carl Cosby
1,441
Pat Finnigan
3,928
Kevin Arseneau
3,251
Carole Boudreau
145
Kevin Arseneau
Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-Kent Ann Bastarache
1,761
Benoît Bourque
5,794
Bernadette Morin
1,220
Lenny O'Brien (CNB)
112
Benoît Bourque
Kent South
Eddy Richard (Ltn.)
90
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Southeastern

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive ConservativeLiberalGreenLibertarianOther
Shediac Bay-Dieppe René Ephestion
1,803
Robert Gauvin
6,530
Chantal Landry
1,254
Robert Gauvin
Shediac-Cap-Acadie Christine Arseneault
1,322
Jacques LeBlanc
5,438
Jean Bourgeois
2,901
Jacques LeBlanc
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé
Tantramar Bruce Phinney
1,166
John Higham
1,276
Megan Mitton
2,468
Donna Allen
57
Evelyne Godfrey (NDP)
84
Megan Mitton
Memramcook-Tantramar
Dieppe-Memramcook Dean Léonard
1,311
Natacha Vautour
5,600
Jacques Giguère
1,531
Richard Losier
Dieppe
Moncton East Paolo (PJ) Andreetti
1,903
Alexandre Cédric Doucet
4,449
Diani Blanco
736
Alex Gagne (NDP)
329
Rob McKee
Moncton Centre
Moncton Centre Dave Melanson
1,738
Rob McKee
3,501
Sarah Colwell
711
James Ryan (NDP)
242
Sherry Wilson#
Moncton Southwest
Moncton South Greg Turner
2,229
Claire Johnson
3,559
Vincent Merola
900
Greg Turner
Moncton Northwest Ernie Steeves
3,536
Tania Sodhi
3,761
Ana Santana
804
Ernie Steeves
Champdoré-Irishtown Ricky Gautreau
2,450
Lyne Chantal Boudreau
3,732
Matthew Ian Clark
743
Adam Hennessey
103
Daniel Allain[99]
Moncton East
Riverview Rob Weir
3,114
Scott Grant
2,740
Sarah Lord
1,978
Rebecca Mallaley
69
Desiree Despres (NDP)
128
Bruce Fitch
Albert-Riverview Sherry Wilson
4,363
Dave Gouthro
2,599
Liam MacDougall
972
William Jones
97
Sharon Buchanan (PANB)
297
Vacant
Albert
Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple Hills Don Monahan
4,284
Connie Larson
2,289
Brian Boucher
1,093
Anthony Matthews
149
Ross Wetmore[104]
Gagetown-Petitcodiac
Close

Southern

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive ConservativeLiberalGreenNDPLibertarianOther
Sussex-Three Rivers Tammy Scott-Wallace
3,789
Bruce Northrup
3,282
Teri McMackin
1,235
Wayne Wheeler
159
Tammy Scott-Wallace
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins Faytene Grasseschi
3,035
John Herron
3,259
Laura Myers
1,553
Gordie Stackhouse
171
Barbara Dempsey
120
Peter Graham (PANB)
153
Vacant
Hampton
Quispamsis Blaine Higgs
3,668
Aaron Kennedy
3,861
Andrew Conradi
378
Alex White
360
David Raymond Amos (Ind.)
42
Blaine Higgs
Rothesay Hugh J. (Ted) Flemming
3,373
Alyson Townsend
4,085
Zara MacKay-Boyce
549
Austin Venedam
85
Ted Flemming
Saint John East Glen Savoie
3,181
David Alston
3,147
Gerald Irish
514
Josh Floyd
252
Denise Campbell
92
Tanya Graham (PANB)
118
Glen Savoie
Saint John Portland-Simonds Paul Dempsey
2,497
John Dornan
3,546
P.J. Duncan
438
Bobby Martin[c]
162
Vacant
Portland-Simonds
Saint John Harbour Adam Smith
1,563
David Hickey
3,413
Mariah Darling
715
Kenneth Procter
228
Shelley Craig
82
Vacant
Saint John West-Lancaster Kim Costain
2,787
Kate Elman Wilcott
3,525
Joanna Killen
864
Jane Ryan
330
Sherie Vukelic
69
Dorothy Shephard
Saint John Lancaster
Kings Centre Bill Oliver
3,821
Brian Stephenson
2,557
Bruce Dryer
1,136
Crystal Tays
139
Bill Oliver
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John Lorneville Ian Lee
3,971
Patty Borthwick
2,052
Rhonda Connell
346
Chris Wanamaker
158
Keith Tays
88
Sharon Greenlaw (CNB)
113
Andrea Anderson-Mason
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
Saint Croix Kathy Bockus
3,271
Troy Lyons
2,063
Mark Groleau
1,442
Bola Ademolu
90
Krysten Mitchell
82
Kris Booth (Ind.)
170
Kathy Bockus
Alex Tessmann (PANB)
96
Close

Capital Region

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive ConservativeLiberalGreenPANBNDPLibertarian
Oromocto-Sunbury Mary E. Wilson
4,381
Stephen Horsman
2,725
Emerald Gibson
868
Glenna Hanley
341
Mary Wilson
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
Fredericton-Grand Lake Kris Austin
4,456
Kevin Dignam
2,277
Ken Washburn
862
Rick DeSaulniers
461
Arthur Taylor
195
Kris Austin
Fredericton-Lincoln Daniel Chippin
2,307
Joni Leger
2,244
David Coon
3,646
David Coon
Fredericton South
Fredericton South-Silverwood Nicolle Carlin
2,287
Susan Holt
4,605
Simon Ouellette
1,860
Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane
165
Dominic Cardy
Fredericton West-Hanwell
Fredericton North Jill Green
2,753
Luke Randall
4,130
Anthea Plummer
922
Glen Davis
107
Matthew Stocek
120
Andrew Vandette
46
Jill Green
Fredericton-York Ryan Cullins
3,572
Tanya Whitney
2,527
Pam Allen-LeBlanc
1,673
Michael Broderick
256
Steven J. LaForest
133
Ryan Cullins
Hanwell-New Maryland Judy Wilson-Shee
3,948
Cindy Miles
4,006
Susan Jonah
1,051
Kris Hurtubise
177
Joël Cyr LaPlante
119
Meryl W. Sarty
67
Jeff Carr
New Maryland-Sunbury
Carleton-York
Richard Ames
4,622
Chris Duffie
2,136
Burt Folkins
675
Sterling Wright
415
Richard Ames
Close

Upper River Valley

More information Electoral district, Candidates ...
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive ConservativeLiberalGreenNDPOther
Woodstock-Hartland Bill Hogan
4,199
Marisa Pelkey
2,549
Jada Roche
276
Bo Sheaves
138
Ernest Culberson (Ind.)
209
Bill Hogan
Carleton
Charlie Webber (PANB)
575
Carleton-Victoria Margaret Johnson
4,798
Julian Moulton
2,159
Rebecca Blaevoet
451
Tasha Rossignol (SJP)
290
Margaret Johnson
Grand Falls-Vallée-des-Rivières-Saint-Quentin Marc-André Ross
2,493
Chuck Chiasson
4,976
Dani McLean-Godbout
540
Chuck Chiasson
Victoria-La Vallée
Edmundston-Vallée-des-Rivières Roger Quimper
1,049
Jean-Claude (JC) D'Amours
5,573
Sylvain Gerald Voisine (SJP)
186
Jean-Claude D'Amours
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston Michel Morin
1,970
Francine Landry
4,798
Alain Martel
218
André Martin
114
Richard Barahoga (CNB)
53
Francine Landry
Close

Results

Summarize
Perspective

New Brunswick has 568,901 eligible voters. Advance polling took place on October 12 and 15, 2024.[108] On October 21, multiple news outlets projected a Liberal Majority government. The result was projected roughly 36 minutes after the polls closed. Susan Holt will become the first female premier in New Brunswick.[109] Premier Blaine Higgs lost his own seat in the riding of Quispamsis. Five other cabinet ministers were also defeated.

More information Party, Party leader ...
Initial count results[110]
Thumb
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2024 2020 ± #  % Change (pp)
Liberal Susan Holt 49 3117Increase 14 180,80348.24Increase13.89
Progressive Conservative Blaine Higgs 49 1627Decrease 11 131,32935.04Decrease 4.30
Green David Coon 46 23Decrease1 51,55813.76Decrease 1.48
New Democratic Alex White 23 00Steady 4,8651.30Decrease 0.36
People's Alliance Rick DeSaulniers 13 02Decrease 2 3,2650.87Decrease 8.32
Libertarian Keith Tays 18 0Steady 1,7100.46New
  Independent4 00Steady 5330.14Decrease 0.04
Social Justice Tanya Roberts 2 0Steady 4760.13New
Consensus NB Len O'Brien 3 0Steady 2780.07New
Total 207 49 374,817 100.00%
Total valid votes 374,817
Close

Synopsis of results

More information Riding, Winning party ...
2024 New Brunswick general election - synopsis of riding results[a 1]
Riding Winning party Turnout
[a 2]
Votes[a 3]
2020 1st place Votes Share Margin
#
Margin
%
2nd place Lib PC Green NDP PA Ind Other Total
 
Albert-Riverview New  PC 4,36352.39%1,76421.18%  Lib 64.30%2,5994,363972297978,328
Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple Hills  PC  PC 4,28454.82%1,99525.53%  Lib 67.27%2,2894,2841,0931497,815
Bathurst New  Lib 3,35756.68%1,32822.42%  PC 60.41%3,3572,0293252125,923
Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-Kent  Lib  Lib 5,79464.54%4,03344.93%  PC 69.86%5,7941,7611,2202028,977
Belle-Baie-Belledune New  Lib 5,05363.08%3,64245.46%  Green 64.21%5,0531,2541,4112938,011
Caraquet  Lib  Lib 6,00289.30%5,28378.60%  PC 69.03%6,0027196,721
Carleton-Victoria  PC  PC 4,79862.33%2,63934.28%  Lib 59.96%2,1594,7984512907,698
Carleton-York  PC  PC 4,62258.89%2,48631.68%  Lib 68.24%2,1364,6226754157,848
Champdoré-Irishtown New  Lib 3,73253.10%1,28218.24%  PC 68.64%3,7322,4507431037,028
Dieppe-Memramcook New  Lib 5,60066.33%4,06948.20%  Green 70.24%5,6001,3111,5318,442
Edmundston-Vallée-des-Rivières  Lib  Lib 5,57381.86%4,52466.45%  PC 63.43%5,5731,0491866,808
Fredericton-Lincoln New  Green 3,64644.48%1,33916.34%  PC 69.61%2,2442,3073,6468,197
Fredericton North  PC  Lib 4,13051.13%1,37717.05%  PC 66.79%4,1302,753922120107468,078
Fredericton South-Silverwood New  Lib 4,60551.64%2,31826.00%  PC 71.31%4,6052,2871,8601658,917
Fredericton-Grand Lake  PA  PC 4,45654.01%2,17926.41%  Lib 67.05%2,2774,4568621954618,251
Fredericton-York  PC  PC 3,57243.77%1,04512.80%  Lib 69.93%2,5273,5721,6731332568,161
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John Lorneville  PC  PC 3,97159.02%1,91928.52%  Lib 65.27%2,0523,9713461582016,728
Grand Falls-Vallée-des-Rivières-Saint-Quentin  Lib  Lib 4,97662.13%2,48331.00%  PC 62.35%4,9762,4935408,009
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins  PC  Lib 3,25939.31%2242.70%  PC 72.99%3,2593,0351,5531711531208,291
Hanwell-New Maryland New  Lib 4,00642.76%580.62%  PC 74.97%4,0063,9481,051119177679,368
Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit New  Lib 4,67576.28%3,22152.55%  PC 63.65%4,6751,4546,129
Kent North  Green  Lib 3,92844.81%6777.72%  Green 67.99%3,9281,4413,2511458,765
Kings Centre  PC  PC 3,82149.93%1,26416.52%  Lib 66.50%2,5573,8211,1361397,653
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston  Lib  Lib 4,79867.08%2,82839.54%  PC 64.96%4,7981,970218114537,153
Miramichi Bay-Neguac  Lib  Lib 4,21952.24%1,07313.29%  PC 65.39%4,2193,1467118,076
Miramichi East New  PC 3,63350.85%7129.97%  Lib 71.13%2,9213,6333552367,145
Miramichi West New  PC 3,81457.08%1,56023.35%  Lib 67.80%2,2543,8142732291126,682
Moncton Centre  Lib  Lib 3,50156.54%1,76328.47%  PC 57.02%3,5011,7387112426,192
Moncton East  PC  Lib 4,44959.98%2,54634.33%  PC 60.31%4,4491,9037363297,417
Moncton Northwest  PC  Lib 3,76146.43%2252.78%  PC 65.77%3,7613,5368048,101
Moncton South  PC  Lib 3,55953.21%1,33019.89%  PC 59.13%3,5592,2299006,688
Oromocto-Sunbury New  PC 4,38152.69%1,65619.92%  Lib 63.05%2,7254,3818683418,315
Quispamsis  PC  Lib 3,86146.47%1932.32%  PC 74.26%3,8613,668378360428,309
Restigouche East New  Lib 3,59053.18%1,31919.54%  PC 68.87%3,5902,2713895016,751
Restigouche West  Lib  Lib 3,99364.18%2,26036.32%  PC 62.56%3,9931,7333801166,222
Riverview  PC  PC 3,11438.78%3744.66%  Lib 66.99%2,7403,1141,978128698,029
Rothesay  PC  Lib 4,08550.48%7128.80%  PC 72.82%4,0853,373549858,092
Saint Croix  PC  PC 3,27145.34%1,20816.75%  Lib 62.32%2,0633,2711,4429096170827,214
Saint John East  PC  PC 3,18143.55%340.47%  Lib 60.39%3,1473,181514252118927,304
Saint John Harbour  PC  Lib 3,41356.87%1,85030.83%  PC 50.52%3,4131,563715228826,001
Saint John Portland-Simonds  PC  Lib 3,54653.38%1,04915.79%  PC 56.12%3,5462,4974381626,643
Saint John West-Lancaster  PC  Lib 3,52546.53%7389.74%  PC 66.89%3,5252,787864330697,575
Shediac Bay-Dieppe  Lib  Lib 6,53068.11%4,72749.31%  PC 69.61%6,5301,8031,2549,587
Shediac-Cap-Acadie  Lib  Lib 5,43856.29%2,53726.26%  Green 70.20%5,4381,3222,9019,661
Shippagan-Les-Îles  Lib  Lib 5,02175.37%3,91058.69%  Green 68.75%5,0215301,1116,662
Sussex-Three Rivers  PC  PC 3,78944.76%5075.99%  Lib 66.13%3,2823,7891,2351598,465
Tantramar New  Green 2,46848.86%1,19223.60%  Lib 61.53%1,2761,1662,46884575,051
Tracadie New  Lib 5,03053.53%1,20112.78%  Green 74.70%5,0305373,8299,396
Woodstock-Hartland  PC  PC 4,19952.84%1,65020.77%  Lib 65.56%2,5494,1992761385752097,946
Close
  1. "Unofficial Results". Elections New Brunswick. Retrieved October 26, 2024.
  2. Includes rejected ballots
  3. Parties receiving more than 1% of the popular vote in either 2024 or 2020 are listed separately.
  = Francophone-majority constituency
  = Open seat
  = Turnout is above provincial average
  = Winning candidate was in previous Legislature
  = Incumbent had switched allegiance
  = Previously incumbent in another riding
  = Not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
  = Incumbency arose from byelection gain
  = Other incumbents renominated
  = Previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
  = Multiple candidates

Comparative analysis for ridings (2024 vs 2020)

More information Riding and winning party, Vote share ...
Summary of riding results by vote share for winning candidate and swing (vs 2020)[a 1]
Riding and winning party Vote share[a 2] Swing[a 3]
 % Change (pp) To Change (pp)
 
Albert-RiverviewPCNew52.39New
Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple HillsPCHold54.82-4.28
 
N/A[a 4]
BathurstLibNew56.68New
Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-KentLibHold64.549.329.32
 
Lib9.969.96
 
Belle-Baie-BelleduneLibNew63.08New
CaraquetLibHold89.3017.0417.04
 
N/A[a 5]
Carleton-VictoriaPCHold62.3317.1117.11
 
PC14.4914.49
 
Carleton-YorkPCHold58.891.071.07
 
PC7.177.17
 
Champdoré-IrishtownLibNew53.10New
Dieppe-MemramcookLibNew66.33New
Edmundston-Vallée-des-RivièresLibHold81.867.397.39
 
Lib5.805.8
 
Fredericton-LincolnGreenNew44.48New
Fredericton NorthLibGain51.1332.4732.47
 
PC6.476.47
 
Fredericton South-SilverwoodLibNew51.64New
Fredericton-Grand LakePCGain54.0123.3923.39
 
PC-32.11
 
Fredericton-YorkPCHold43.771.361.36
 
PC2.422.42
 
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John LornevillePCHold59.02-7.45
 
Lib-13.88
 
Grand Falls-Vallée-des-Rivières-Saint-QuentinLibHold62.131.891.89
 
PC-0.33
 
Hampton-Fundy-St. MartinsLibGain39.3124.2324.23
 
Lib-24.07
 
Hanwell-New MarylandLibNew42.76New
Hautes-Terres-NepisiguitLibNew76.28New
Kent NorthLibGain44.8110.1910.19
 
Lib-10.28
 
Kings CentrePCHold49.93-11.61
 
Green-6.47
 
Madawaska Les Lacs-EdmundstonLibHold67.080.540.54
 
PC-0.70
 
Miramichi Bay-NeguacLibHold52.248.688.68
 
Lib1.691.69
 
Miramichi EastPCNew50.85New
Miramichi WestPCNew57.08New
Moncton CentreLibHold56.5417.6317.63
 
Lib16.7816.78
 
Moncton EastLibGain59.9824.6324.63
 
Lib-22.07
 
Moncton NorthwestLibGain46.4315.7615.76
 
Lib-11.80
 
Moncton SouthLibGain53.2122.9522.95
 
Lib-15.85
 
Oromocto-SunburyPCNew52.69New
QuispamsisLibGain46.4731.8231.82
 
Lib-27.89
 
Restigouche EastLibNew53.18New
Restigouche WestLibHold64.182.022.02
 
Lib8.828.82
 
RiverviewPCHold38.78-21.29
 
Lib-19.51
 
RothesayLibGain50.4829.4629.46
 
Lib-24.53
 
Saint CroixPCHold45.340.160.16
 
PC15.5315.53
 
Saint John EastPCHold43.55-12.81
 
Lib-14.78
 
Saint John HarbourLibGain56.8733.9633.96
 
Green-2.02
 
Saint John Portland-SimondsLibGain53.3824.6324.63
 
Lib-21.07
 
Saint John West-LancasterLibGain46.5324.1224.12
 
Lib-20.78
 
Shediac Bay-DieppeLibHold68.117.977.97
 
Lib9.889.88
 
Shediac-Cap-AcadieLibHold56.292.622.62
 
Green-0.40
 
Shippagan-Les-ÎlesLibHold75.37-8.41
 
PC-3.81
 
Sussex-Three RiversPCHold44.76-11.53
 
N/A[a 4]
TantramarGreenNew48.86New
TracadieLibNew53.53New
Woodstock-HartlandPCHold52.844.974.97
 
PC11.7911.79
 
Close
  1. Derived from "Provincial Election Results". electionsnb.ca. Elections New Brunswick. Retrieved April 17, 2025.
  2. Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2020.
  3. Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2020; negative points to 2020's second-place party being swung to.
  4. People's Alliance came in 2nd in 2020, but did not field a candidate in 2024.
  5. Greens came in 2nd in 2020, but did not field a candidate in 2024.

Notes

  1. Holt was the incumbent MLA for Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore, but chose to run in her home riding of Fredericton South-Silverwood, newly created by redistribution.
  2. Coon was the incumbent MLA for Fredericton South, but chose to run in Fredericton-Lincoln after his riding was dissolved by redistribution.
  3. Withdrew.

References

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